2月24日，美国最高法院上周五驳回了特朗普总统的关税政策，但风波远未结束，随之而来的是又一轮 更为紧张的贸易局势。经济学家普遍认为，该裁决的后续影响不仅会威胁到全球贸易关系，美国经济也 可能因此遭受损失。 当地时间2月20日，美国最高法院以6比3的裁决认定，特朗普总统没有法律权力根据《国际紧急经济权 力法》（IEEPA）实施去年4月生效的全面关税。 然而，特朗普并不"买账"，并随后对一系列美国贸易伙伴加征最高达15%的新关税，进一步加剧了全球 贸易紧张局势。欧盟领导人对新关税表示失望，认为美国的政策转变将颠覆去年与欧盟和英国达成的贸 易协议。 经济学家们认为，对美国最新关税威胁的抵制，凸显了人们对总统反复无常的贸易政策的深深不满，并 可能促使外国政府缩减与美国的贸易规模，导致企业减少扩张、投资和招聘。 他在接受采访时表示，"企业不知道接下来会发生什么。他们会减少投资，减少招聘，扩张步伐也会放 缓。这将限制美国经济增长。" 这位经济学家继续表示，在不确定性加剧的情况下，外国政府可能会做出类似的反应，导致它们"继续 疏远美国。 "他们肯定为此焦头烂额，"赞迪说："人们会越来越觉得美国经济管理不善，客观来说，他们的 ...

（原标题：美最高法否决全面关税后，特朗普火速加征新税！经济学家警告：美国经济或成最大输家） 智通财经APP获悉，美国最高法院上周五作出的一项裁决，推翻了美国总统特朗普的全面关税政策，但 这并未终结贸易税的动荡。经济学家表示，裁决的余波恐将进一步绷紧全球贸易关系，而美国经济本身 可能成为最终的承受者。 裁决公布后，特朗普立即对多个美国贸易伙伴加征了最高15%的关税，且即刻生效，使得本已紧张的全 球贸易局势再度升级。欧盟领导人对新关税表示失望，认为美国的政策转向将颠覆去年与欧盟及英国达 成的贸易协议。本周一，欧盟再次推迟了对其与美国协议的关键投票。 国际社会对特朗普最新关税威胁的抵制，凸显了各方对其反复无常贸易政策的深切不满。这或将促使外 国政府减少对美贸易，并导致企业收缩扩张、投资和招聘计划。 其最终结果可能拖累美国经济。"这改变了全球与最大经济体开展贸易的方式，而这将带来经济后 果，"加拿大皇家银行美国经济主管迈克·里德表示，他指的是最高法院的裁决以及随后的新关税推进行 动。 负面效应凸显 穆迪分析首席经济学家马克·赞迪认为，这场贸易战闹剧很可能会在企业与外国政府中营造一种谨慎氛 围，对美国经济而言"只会带来 ...

2025年，中国历经动荡。年初，中国面临地缘政治逆风与内需疲软的双重压力；去年4月，新关税政策 与贸易摩擦引发了数十年来最重大的贸易冲突。 然而，局势在去年11月迎来转折。中国年度贸易顺差突破1万亿美元，创下历史新高；国内生产总值 （GDP）增速稳定在5%左右，似乎已经摆脱"去全球化"的阴霾。 2026年，中国将面临怎样的挑战？尽管媒体焦点仍集中在美国总统特朗普的关税政策或中国的房地产困 境，但更深层的趋势正在重塑中国未来的经济走向。跨国企业在中国市场正面临新挑战，本土企业竞争 力日益增强是其中之一，但机遇依然存在。在这个全球第二大经济体应对风云变幻的国际经济环境之 际，以下五个核心问题至关重要。 关税不确定性将如何重塑跨国企业的在华战略？ 凭借成本优势与一体化供应链，中国在全球制造业中长期占据主导地位。即便2025年美国加征关税后， 关税税率最终稳定在50%左右，这一优势仍未动摇。 关税并未对中国贸易造成显著冲击：中国出口占国际市场份额稳定在14%左右，是印度与越南两国总和 的四倍。 图片来源：Wand Zhao—AFP via Getty Images 原因在于中国已实现贸易伙伴多元化。目前，对美商品出口 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that investing in Australian gold mining companies may provide leveraged opportunities for investors, despite the challenges faced by the mining sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The gold mining sector has historically lagged behind gold price increases, with Australian mining stocks dropping 16% over three years while gold rose 52% during the last bull market [1]. - Rising costs and low operational efficiency have hindered the growth of gold stocks over the past two decades, leading to significant asset write-downs totaling approximately $129 billion in 2012 [1]. - The current trend shows that gold mining companies are adopting innovative and cost-effective technologies, improving their cost control capabilities [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Exploration spending by major producers is projected to increase by 6% year-on-year in 2024, reaching over $3 billion, primarily focused on lower-risk brownfield projects [2]. - There is a notable interest in small to mid-sized exploration companies in Australia, which are advancing projects in established gold regions, as they are expected to benefit from long-term equity financing [2]. - Companies rooted in resource-rich and politically stable regions like Australia are anticipated to be the biggest beneficiaries amid increasing strategic commodity competition and de-globalization [2]. Group 3: Financing Solutions - Long-term equity financing is highlighted as a crucial support for international investors seeking liquidity to capitalize on upward opportunities or diversify their holdings [3].

（声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 出品丨21财经客户端 21世纪经济报道 21君荐读 道指再创新高，美股科技股反弹，甲骨文飙涨9%，金银、原油大涨 国常会部署稳投资，信号明确决心很大 王健林25亿极限自救 SFC 2 悦 读 · 智能 权 威 . r7 o 扫码点击下载 记 者丨张嘉钰 李域 编辑丨黎雨桐 2月10日开盘，贵金属全线下跌，现货黄金一度跌破5000美元，截至7:30，跌幅收窄日内下跌 0.85%。现货白银跌超2%，报81.6美元/盎司。 | | 国际贵金属 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 5015.627 | -43.183 | -0.85% | 16.15% | | 伦敦银现 | 81.628 | -1.745 | -2.09% | 14.04% | | COMEX黄金 | 5045.6d | -33.8 | -0.67% | 15.68% | | COMEX白银 | 81.510d | -0.724 | -0.88% | 14.8 ...

法币贬值风险 (Debasement 高盛关于贵金属市场（主要是黄金和白银）报告的主要内容总结，日期为2026年2月2日，基于几位核心分析师和 交易主管的观点： 核心观点与市场背景 主要驱动主题： 去美元化 (De-dollarisation)：这是最持久的主题。 各国央行持续增持黄金，全球持有的美债储备总量已低于黄金储备总量，且此趋势预计将在2026年延续。 高盛关于贵金属市场（主要是黄金和白银）报告的主要内容总结，日期为2026年2月2日，基于几位核心分析师和 交易主管的观点： 核心观点与市场背景 主要驱动主题： 去美元化 (De-dollarisation)：这是最持久的主题。 各国央行持续增持黄金，全球持有的美债储备总量已低于黄金储备总量，且此趋势预计将在2026年延续。 法币贬值风险 (Debasement ofFiat Currencies)：自2025年起，机构投资者因担忧法定货币长期贬值而寻求黄金等资产 进行配置。 去全球化 (De-globalization)与地缘政治秩序变化：地缘政治事件（如报告中提及的委内瑞拉和格陵兰岛相关事件） 及政策变动，导致投资者将黄金视为避险资产，这部分资金倾向 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion, down from $2.6 billion in 2024, reflecting lower ownership in three businesses following partial sales [17] - Adjusted EFO for the year was $1.2 billion, including $161 million of net gains during the year [17] - Excluding tax credits and the impact of acquisitions and dispositions, Adjusted EBITDA was $2.1 billion, compared to $2 billion in the prior year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The industrial segment generated full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion last year, with a 10% increase excluding acquisitions and dispositions [18] - The business services segment generated full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $823 million, down from $832 million last year, but increased approximately 5% on a same-store basis [19] - The infrastructure services segment generated full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $436 million, down from $606 million last year, impacted by the sale of operations and lower terminal deliveries [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America is benefiting from easing rates, steady consumer spending, and resilient labor markets, although growth remains challenging in certain end markets [10] - In Europe, conditions are more challenging with slower activity in cyclical and industrial end markets, but early signs of improvement are noted due to fiscal spending and stabilizing energy prices [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is close to completing a corporate reorganization to become a single, newly listed corporation, which is expected to improve trading liquidity and attract global investors [5] - The strategy focuses on operational excellence and capitalizing on de-globalization and AI trends to reshape supply chains and enhance business performance [7][8] - The company aims to continue compounding value for shareholders through capital recycling, growth acquisitions, and stock repurchases [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the market backdrop, noting that the trading price is 50% higher than a year ago but still at a discount to NAV [8] - The company is well-positioned with capital and capabilities to build value in 2026, with a strong pipeline of new commercial opportunities [9][15] Other Important Information - The company ended the year with approximately $2.6 billion of pro forma liquidity at the corporate level, providing significant flexibility for growth and capital allocation [21] - The company has repurchased approximately $235 million of its units and shares, remaining committed to completing its $250 million buyback program [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding Clarios' performance and tax credits - Management indicated that Clarios is generating significant free cash flow, and the 45X tax credits will enhance cash for reinvestment, with various options for shareholder returns being considered [23][24] Question: On Scientific Games' earnings trajectory - Management expressed cautious optimism about Scientific Games, noting a strong market position and a robust pipeline, but emphasized that earnings growth may take time to materialize [26][27] Question: On the balance between reducing leverage and pursuing growth - Management stated that growing EBITDA will naturally reduce leverage, and the focus remains on growth while managing debt levels effectively [28][29] Question: Update on CDK operations - Management reported strong renewal activity and a focus on stabilizing churn through technology adoption, with a positive long-term outlook for the business [42][44] Question: On monetization environment and deployment pacing - Management noted a strong environment for monetizations and indicated that 2026 is expected to be an active year for acquisitions, continuing the momentum from 2025 [45][46]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion, a decrease from $2.6 billion in 2024, primarily due to lower ownership in three businesses following partial sales [16] - Adjusted EFO for the year was $1.2 billion, which included $161 million of net gains during the year [16] - Excluding tax credits and the impact of acquisitions and dispositions, Adjusted EBITDA was $2.1 billion, compared to $2 billion in the prior year [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The industrial segment generated full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $1.3 billion, up from $1.2 billion last year, with a 10% increase in performance excluding acquisitions and tax benefits [17] - The business services segment generated full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $823 million, slightly down from $832 million last year, but increased approximately 5% on a same-store basis [18] - The infrastructure services segment generated full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $436 million, down from $606 million last year, reflecting the sale of offshore oil services and a partial interest in work access services [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America is experiencing stable conditions with easing rates, steady consumer spending, and resilient labor markets, although growth remains challenging in certain end markets [10] - In Europe, conditions are more challenging with slower activity in cyclical and industrial end markets, but there are early signs of improvement supported by fiscal spending and stabilizing energy prices [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is close to completing a corporate reorganization to become a single, newly listed corporation, which is expected to improve trading liquidity and increase index-driven demand for shares [5] - The strategy focuses on operational excellence and capitalizing on de-globalization and AI trends to reshape supply chains and enhance business performance [6][8] - The company aims to continue compounding value for shareholders through capital recycling, growth acquisitions, and stock repurchases [4] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the market backdrop, noting that the trading price is 50% higher than a year ago but still at a discount to NAV [8] - The company is well-positioned with capital and capabilities to continue building value in 2026, with a strong focus on operational efficiency and cash generation [9] Other Important Information - The company ended the year with approximately $2.6 billion of pro forma liquidity at the corporate level, providing significant flexibility for growth and capital allocation [20] - The company has repurchased approximately $235 million of its units and shares, remaining committed to completing its $250 million buyback program [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding Clarios' performance and tax credits - Management indicated that Clarios is generating significant free cash flow, and the 45X tax credits will enhance cash generation, providing optionality for shareholder distributions [22] Question: On the timing of production tax credits - Management stated that the application for tax credits is being processed, and they are optimistic about qualifying and receiving the credits in due course [23][24] Question: On Scientific Games' earnings trajectory - Management expressed cautious optimism about Scientific Games, noting a strong market position and a positive outlook, but emphasized that earnings growth may take 6-12 months to materialize [26] Question: On the balance between reducing leverage and pursuing growth - Management highlighted that growing EBITDA will naturally reduce leverage levels, and they are focused on growth while managing free cash flow for debt reduction or other purposes [29] Question: On the buyback program and stock valuation - Management confirmed their commitment to the buyback program and will continue to be opportunistic in repurchasing shares at discounts to intrinsic value [39]

Group 1 - The international gold and silver prices experienced significant volatility on January 29, with gold prices dropping by 5% and silver by nearly 7% before recovering slightly [1] - Since the beginning of 2023, gold prices have fluctuated, rising from $1,850 per ounce to a peak of $2,080 on May 4, followed by a sustained upward trend starting in October 2023 [1] - Central banks have been the primary drivers of the recent gold price increase, with global central bank net purchases reaching 230 tons in Q4 2025, a 6% increase from the previous quarter [1][3] Group 2 - Factors influencing global central bank gold purchases include geopolitical risks, doubts about the dollar's credibility, and inflation expectations [3] - Tether Holdings SA has emerged as a significant player in the gold market, purchasing up to 2 tons of physical gold weekly, totaling approximately 140 tons valued at $24 billion [3] - The combination of cryptocurrencies and gold is seen as a hedge against geopolitical risks and government debt distrust, potentially driving gold prices to unprecedented levels [5] Group 3 - The price of gold is closely linked to geopolitical uncertainties, particularly in the U.S., where the Republican Party's control of Congress may impact international political dynamics [8] - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November 2024 are viewed as a critical event that could influence gold prices depending on the election outcomes [8][9] - Historical patterns indicate that significant price increases in gold and silver are often followed by sharp corrections, suggesting potential volatility in the market [9][11] Group 4 - The gold-silver ratio has recently dropped to around 50, indicating that silver may have risen too quickly relative to gold, despite its industrial demand [11] - Short-term traders are advised to be cautious of potential price corrections, especially if geopolitical risks ease or if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations [11] - For long-term asset allocation, the ongoing geopolitical risks suggest that the gold bull market is likely to continue [11]

Core Viewpoint - Financial markets experienced turbulence in the first half of 2025 due to economic and geopolitical instability, but regained calm in the second half. However, the International Monetary Fund warns of potential future challenges, urging regulators to remain vigilant while reducing unnecessary burdens on financial institutions to foster economic growth and competitiveness [1]. Regulatory Trends - Global financial regulators are under political pressure to reassess the impact of financial regulation on economic growth. The U.S. has shifted towards more aggressive deregulation, while the UK and EU have adopted a more cautious approach with "simplified regulation" [4]. - The adoption of artificial intelligence in the financial sector is accelerating, but the regulatory environment remains complex, with some jurisdictions introducing specific regulations like the EU's Artificial Intelligence Act [5]. - Regulatory bodies in the UK, EU, and Asia-Pacific are focusing on promoting retail investment, with the EU developing a Retail Investment Strategy and the UK implementing a "targeted support" system [6]. Globalization and Fragmentation - The convergence of global rules based on international standards is giving way to fragmentation in regulatory practices across regions. The World Economic Forum estimates that geopolitical fragmentation could lead to a global GDP loss of approximately 5% [7]. Digital Asset Regulation - As digital assets become more integrated into the mainstream financial system, regulators are developing frameworks for cryptocurrency activities and oversight for both traditional financial institutions and native crypto firms [8]. Private Assets and Market Resilience - The private asset industry is growing rapidly with support from global policymakers, seen as a vital tool for economic growth. However, recent bankruptcy events may raise concerns about systemic risks among regulators and investors [9]. Institutional and System Resilience - Regulatory bodies are focused on ensuring the resilience of financial services and their supply chains in response to geopolitical changes and increasing technological dependencies [10]. Sustainable Development - As sustainable development policies mature, the industry is rethinking how to create value through sustainability initiatives, although geopolitical tensions and shifting political priorities may lead to the simplification or postponement of some regulatory initiatives [11]. Responsibility and Governance - The evolving risk landscape and the simplification of certain regulatory requirements highlight the growing importance of organizational culture and market self-discipline. Regulators emphasize the critical role of management in promoting sound risk management, governance, and decision-making [13]. Future Preparedness - Financial institutions need to proactively address future challenges by balancing prudent regulation, behavioral standards, technological innovation, and sustainable development in a complex and changing environment [14].