Core Viewpoint - The heavy-duty truck market is expected to experience a new surge in demand in the second half of 2025 due to government policies promoting the scrapping and updating of old trucks, particularly those meeting National III and IV emission standards [1][3][46]. Policy Overview - The Chinese government has significantly increased efforts to eliminate old operational trucks, expanding the scrapping policy to include National IV standards and providing differentiated subsidies for scrapping and purchasing new vehicles [3][4]. - As of now, 27 out of 32 provinces and municipalities have issued specific guidelines for the 2025 truck scrapping and updating subsidies, covering nearly 85% of the country [1][15]. Subsidy Details - The subsidy for scrapping old trucks can reach up to 45,000 yuan for the scrapped vehicle and up to 95,000 yuan for the new purchase, totaling a maximum of 140,000 yuan per vehicle [4][34]. - The subsidy structure varies by vehicle type and the duration of early scrapping, with specific amounts allocated for different categories of trucks [6][9][28]. Market Impact - In May 2025, the heavy-duty truck market saw sales of approximately 85,000 units, a year-on-year increase of about 9%, indicating a recovery in the market driven by the scrapping policies [11]. - The policies are expected to stimulate both terminal and wholesale sales, addressing the current challenges in the freight market, such as oversupply and low freight rates [11][46]. Regional Implementation - Regions like Shanghai and Beijing have implemented aggressive policies, with Shanghai aiming to eliminate National IV diesel trucks by 2027 and offering substantial subsidies for both scrapping and purchasing new vehicles [18][24]. - Other provinces have set specific targets for the number of trucks to be scrapped and updated, with Shanghai targeting 50,000 trucks and Zhejiang aiming for 40,000 [38][39]. Conclusion - The truck scrapping and updating policies are designed to lower the cost of purchasing new vehicles through financial subsidies, thereby invigorating the market and promoting the transition to greener logistics, aligning with national carbon reduction goals [46].