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未来三年,普通人的低成本创业方向
吴晓波频道· 2025-08-14 01:10
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that economic downturns can present unique opportunities for ordinary individuals to find low-cost business ventures, contrary to the common perception of difficulty in making money during such times [3][5]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Opportunities - The article discusses the "Kondratiev Wave" theory, which suggests that economies experience cycles of prosperity, recession, stagnation, and recovery approximately every 60 years, with each phase lasting about 15 years [5]. - Currently, the global economy is transitioning from a low period that began in 2015 to a recovery phase, indicating that new opportunities are emerging amid structural adjustments [5][7]. - Historical examples from Japan and the United States illustrate that economic downturns do not eliminate opportunities but rather redistribute them, leading to the emergence of low-cost businesses that meet essential needs [7][8]. Group 2: Trends in Japan and the United States - Japan's economic transformation post-1990 crisis saw a shift towards value-oriented consumption, with the rise of discount stores and second-hand markets, emphasizing the importance of quality-to-price ratio [9][10]. - The U.S. experienced similar trends during the Great Depression and the 1970s stagflation, where low-cost entertainment and essential services thrived despite economic challenges [14][15][16]. - Both countries' experiences highlight the necessity for businesses to adapt to changing consumer demands during economic downturns, focusing on efficiency and cost-effectiveness [17]. Group 3: CHEES Model for Identifying Opportunities - The article introduces the CHEES model, which identifies five key areas for potential business opportunities: Cheap (value-oriented), Health (preventive care), Emotion (emotional fulfillment), Entertainment (low-cost leisure), and Lifestyle (niche markets) [19][21][23][27]. - Specific business opportunities are suggested, such as community discount supermarkets, second-hand luxury goods, and self-service fitness centers, which align with current consumer trends [20][22][24][26][28]. - The model serves as a practical guide for entrepreneurs to navigate economic fluctuations and identify viable business ventures [29][31]. Group 4: Practical Guidance for Entrepreneurs - The article stresses the importance of understanding economic trends and consumer behavior to convert insights into actionable business strategies [29][34]. - It encourages aspiring entrepreneurs to start with low-cost ventures to minimize risks and build experience, rather than pursuing large-scale projects without a solid foundation [30][39]. - The course offered by Wang Cen aims to provide a comprehensive framework for understanding economic cycles and applying the CHEES model to identify suitable business paths [31][42].