Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market has undergone a complete cycle over the past decade, transitioning from a period of rapid growth to a more rational phase, reflecting the wealth changes of the city and its families [1][2][18] Market Performance - In 2015, Shenzhen's new home average price reached 33,426 yuan/sqm, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, with transaction volumes soaring to 66,450 units, a 58.7% increase [2] - By 2025, the market has erased all gains from the past decade, with prices reverting to levels seen in early 2016, indicating a significant market correction [2][3] Regional Analysis - Different regions in Shenzhen have shown varying degrees of resilience during the market adjustment, leading to a comprehensive revaluation of property values [4] - Nanshan District, as the industrial core, has maintained prices at mid-2018 levels due to strong industrial support and talent attraction [5] - Bao'an District has shown relative stability, with prices holding at 2017-2018 levels, supported by infrastructure improvements [6] - Longhua District has experienced significant declines, with prices reverting to levels seen in early 2016, particularly in previously overheated areas [7] - Longgang District has been the hardest hit, with prices falling back to mid-2015 levels due to high supply and distance from core areas [8] - Luohu District, characterized by older properties and a lack of new industry support, has seen prices drop to July 2015 levels [9] Transaction Dynamics - The average transaction cycle for second-hand homes in Shenzhen has increased to 256 days in 2025, indicating a longer wait time from listing to sale [10] - However, the rate of increase in transaction cycles has slowed, suggesting a potential market stabilization [10][12] - The market sentiment is stabilizing, with 50.6% of properties seeing price declines, while 25.9% have increased, indicating a shift in seller behavior towards a more cautious approach [12] Buyer Behavior - There has been a significant shift in buyer logic from speculative investments to a focus on residential quality, with smaller units (under 60 sqm) becoming less liquid, as their transaction cycle has increased to 291 days by 2025 [13][14] - The most liquid price segment has shifted to 500-800 million yuan, reflecting a more pragmatic approach from buyers [14] - The luxury market has entered a phase where only premium properties are being purchased, with transaction cycles for homes over 15 million yuan rising to 311 days [15] Market Signals - A positive sign for the market is that 74% of families looking to upgrade their homes are choosing to move up in price, indicating strong underlying demand [16] - Notably, families selling properties under 3 million yuan are showing a remarkable ability to upgrade to the 3-8 million yuan range, suggesting a shift towards improved living conditions [17] - The market is showing signs of bottoming out, with some areas having returned to 2015 price levels, and transaction activity gradually increasing [18]