Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a "price-for-volume" trend, with a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, which accounted for over 60% of total residential sales [1][4]. New Housing Market - In 2025, the new housing market in Shenzhen showed a divergence with a decrease in pre-sale transactions and an increase in current sales, with total new housing transactions reaching 37,879 units, of which pre-sale transactions were 24,549 units (down 35% year-on-year) and current sales were 13,330 units (up 28% year-on-year) [2]. - The average price of pre-sale residential units in Shenzhen was 53,100 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to the previous year [2]. Monthly Trends - The monthly transaction volume for new housing in Shenzhen displayed a "high-low-later rebound" pattern, with January to April showing decent sales, but a decline to 2,000-3,000 units from May onwards, followed by a slight increase in December due to the launch of luxury properties [3]. - The main areas for new housing transactions were Longgang, Baoan, and Longhua, each exceeding 7,000 units, with the Longhua project attracting interest from buyers in Hong Kong [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen continued its recovery, with a total of 56,217 transactions in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and an average price of 59,000 yuan per square meter, down 6.3% year-on-year [4]. - The second-hand housing transaction volume remained stable, with monthly transactions exceeding 5,000 units for ten consecutive months, indicating a steady market [4]. Buyer Demographics - The proportion of transactions for properties priced below 5 million yuan increased to 59.4%, up 2.8 percentage points from 2024, highlighting the dominance of first-time buyers in the market [5]. - The demand from the improvement segment also saw a slight increase, indicating a broader market participation [5]. Market Outlook - Experts believe that the new real estate policies and changes in housing fund regulations have lowered entry barriers for buyers, enhancing affordability and providing more opportunities for first-time buyers, signaling a transition from an adjustment phase to a stable development phase in the real estate industry [6].

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market has undergone a complete cycle over the past decade, transitioning from a period of rapid growth to a more rational phase, reflecting the wealth changes of the city and its families [1][2][18] Market Performance - In 2015, Shenzhen's new home average price reached 33,426 yuan/sqm, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, with transaction volumes soaring to 66,450 units, a 58.7% increase [2] - By 2025, the market has erased all gains from the past decade, with prices reverting to levels seen in early 2016, indicating a significant market correction [2][3] Regional Analysis - Different regions in Shenzhen have shown varying degrees of resilience during the market adjustment, leading to a comprehensive revaluation of property values [4] - Nanshan District, as the industrial core, has maintained prices at mid-2018 levels due to strong industrial support and talent attraction [5] - Bao'an District has shown relative stability, with prices holding at 2017-2018 levels, supported by infrastructure improvements [6] - Longhua District has experienced significant declines, with prices reverting to levels seen in early 2016, particularly in previously overheated areas [7] - Longgang District has been the hardest hit, with prices falling back to mid-2015 levels due to high supply and distance from core areas [8] - Luohu District, characterized by older properties and a lack of new industry support, has seen prices drop to July 2015 levels [9] Transaction Dynamics - The average transaction cycle for second-hand homes in Shenzhen has increased to 256 days in 2025, indicating a longer wait time from listing to sale [10] - However, the rate of increase in transaction cycles has slowed, suggesting a potential market stabilization [10][12] - The market sentiment is stabilizing, with 50.6% of properties seeing price declines, while 25.9% have increased, indicating a shift in seller behavior towards a more cautious approach [12] Buyer Behavior - There has been a significant shift in buyer logic from speculative investments to a focus on residential quality, with smaller units (under 60 sqm) becoming less liquid, as their transaction cycle has increased to 291 days by 2025 [13][14] - The most liquid price segment has shifted to 500-800 million yuan, reflecting a more pragmatic approach from buyers [14] - The luxury market has entered a phase where only premium properties are being purchased, with transaction cycles for homes over 15 million yuan rising to 311 days [15] Market Signals - A positive sign for the market is that 74% of families looking to upgrade their homes are choosing to move up in price, indicating strong underlying demand [16] - Notably, families selling properties under 3 million yuan are showing a remarkable ability to upgrade to the 3-8 million yuan range, suggesting a shift towards improved living conditions [17] - The market is showing signs of bottoming out, with some areas having returned to 2015 price levels, and transaction activity gradually increasing [18]

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen real estate market is showing signs of recovery in the first half of the year, supported by various policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of the year, the total transaction of new and second-hand homes in Shenzhen exceeded 65,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.2% [1] - Specifically, residential transactions accounted for over 51,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 41.8% [1] Group 2: Developer Activity - Developers are primarily focused on digesting existing inventory, leading to relatively low new project launches in the first half of the year [1]

Group 1 - The Shenzhen real estate market showed resilience in the first half of the year, with new and second-hand home transactions exceeding 65,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.2% [1] - The supply of new homes in Shenzhen decreased significantly, with 17,232 new homes supplied in the first half of 2025, down 44.5% year-on-year and 47.7% month-on-month [1] - The marketing heads of local real estate companies indicated that the hot sales of some new projects were due to a "small step, quick run" approach to launching, controlling the supply to observe market conditions [1] Group 2 - In June, the new home online signing volume in Shenzhen exceeded 3,000 units, indicating a relatively stable market despite the traditional "off-season" [2] - The proportion of new homes sold as existing homes increased significantly to 42%, reflecting a clear trend towards selling completed properties [2] - The second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen reached 29,231 units in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 36.6% [2] Group 3 - The demand for second-hand homes in Shenzhen has shown fluctuations but remains at a relatively high level [3] - The overall demand for both new and second-hand homes is expected to remain stable year-on-year, driven by high-value new homes and strong demand from first-time buyers [3] - The market may continue to experience price pressure due to a large number of listings and competition from high-value new homes, leading to a potential decline in transaction prices in the second half of the year [3]