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建信期货贵金属日评-20251204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-04 02:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices are likely to rise due to the Fed's expected rate cuts and the impact of the new Fed Chair nominee. However, factors like the Venezuela situation, Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global trade tensions also affect prices. Silver, platinum, and palladium, which have strong industrial attributes, have shown signs of weakness recently, and investors should be aware of the adjustment risks after their short - term price surges. London gold needs to accumulate momentum in the range of $3880 - 4380 per ounce, and it's not advisable to over - chase rises or falls at present. In the medium - to - long - term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system support the upward trend of precious metals [4]. - The intermediate bull market of precious metals that started in March 2024 is not over. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. After the significant decline in gold and silver prices since late October, some of the internal adjustment risks have been released. Investors should look for opportunities to go long again based on the resonance of technical and fundamental factors [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The expected Fed rate cuts push up the liquidity premium of precious metals, but the situation in Venezuela, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global trade tensions also affect prices. Silver, platinum, and palladium have shown signs of weakness. London gold needs to accumulate momentum in the $3880 - 4380 per ounce range. This week, pay attention to the US - Russia talks, the Venezuela situation, and the November PMI data of the US and Europe [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The table shows the pre - closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, percentage change, open interest, and change in open interest of Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Gold T + D, and Silver T + D [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce. After the decline in gold and silver prices since late October, look for long - entry opportunities based on technical and fundamental factors [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][15]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia and the US discussed the possible ways to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but they failed to reach a compromise on territorial disputes [16]. - US President Trump will announce the nominee for the Fed Chair early next year, further prolonging the selection process [16]. - The eurozone's inflation rate unexpectedly rose in November, which may strengthen the expectation that the European Central Bank will not cut interest rates further soon [17].