| 国债期货价差日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 熊智健 | Z0019608 | | 种类 日期 | 品种 IRR (%) | | | | | | | | | | | | 最新值 | 较前一交易日变化 | 上市以来百分位数 | | 2025-10-09 | TS基美 1.5802 | | | | | | | | | | | | -0.0385 | -0.0013 | 25.00% | | 2025-10-09 | TF基差 1.7342 | | | | | | | | | | | | -0.0580 | 0.0173 | 48.90% | | 基差 | 2025-10-09 T基差 1.6100 | | | | | | | | | | | | 0. ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年10月9日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | F期现价差 | -22 69 | -7.24 | 19.80% | 31.50% | | | | | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | 0.06 | -2.90 | 52.40% | 57.00% | 期现价差 | IC期现价去 | -121.97 | -3.61 | 6.90% | 1.00% | IM湖砌价采 | -168.76 | -8.33 | 35.00% | 6.30% | | 次月-当月 | -11.40 | 2.60 | 34.80% | 34.70% | 季月-当月 | ...

文字早评 2025/10/09 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、证监会召开"十五五"资本市场规划上市公司和行业机构座谈会，全面推进实施新一轮资本市场改 革开放，不断提升市场的吸引力、包容性和竞争力； 2、节假日期间、贵金属、铜、铝等有色金属期货收盘普涨； 3、全球存储芯片价格持续上涨，摩根士丹利的最新研报预测，人工智能热潮下，存储芯片行业预计迎 来一个"超级周期"； 4、中国核聚变装置 BEST 建设取得关键突破，有望在 2030 年通过核聚变发电点亮第一盏灯； 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.14%/-0.38%/-0.49%/-0.98%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-1.01%/-1.65%/-3.87%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.24%/-1.26%/-2.23%/-5.12%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.04%/-0.00%/-0.02%/-0.01%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，AI 等高位热点板块近期出现分歧，储能、芯片及有色等板块崛起，市场成交量有 所萎缩，短期指数波动有所加大。但从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未 ...

综合晨报 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年09月30日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价大跌，布伦特12合约跌2.98%。供应端处于伊拉克库尔德复运、OPEC+进一步增产带 来的即期增量与地缘风险并存的多空交织状态，但总体石油的累库进程依然明确，三季度累积幅度 2.4%包括原油累库0.5%、成品油累库5.5%，且随着炼厂开工率的季节性回落，上周累库结构已向上 游原油集中。油价上行至震荡区间高位后进一步走强的空间有限，但十一前后外围市场围绕俄乌、 伊朗的地缘犹动仍在，继续持有期货空头与看涨期权相结合的保护性策略。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属延续强势表现。本周关注美国政府停摆的解决进展以及非农在内的一系列关键数据。美 国劳工统计局发布政府停摆应急计划，将在政府停摆期间暂停所有运营，不发布经济数据。贵金属 中期偏强趋势未改但国庆期间波动风险较高,建议离场观望。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价扩大涨势，贵金属提振交易情绪，节中市场关注政府关门风险,一旦僵局可能担追非 农就业等数据公布。铜市继续消化Grasberg基本铁席两个季度供应对平衡表的影响。国内观铜上调 到82210元，上海贴水5元，节前SMM社库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the reports Summary by Related Categories 1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **IM Spread Data**: IM's current - spot spread is -160.43, up 47.96 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 35.00% and an all - time quantile of 7.00%. Various IM inter - period spreads also show different values and changes [1] - **Other Index Spreads**: Spreads of IF, IH, IC, etc., including current - spot spreads and inter - period spreads, have their own values, changes, and quantiles. For example, IC's far - month to quarterly - month spread is -173.40, up 0.60 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 2.00% [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 300, etc., have their latest values, changes, and quantiles. For instance, the CSI 500/SSE 50 ratio is 1.5910, down 0.0004 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 96.70% [1] 2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis Data**: TS basis is 1.4369, down 0.0131 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 18.30%. TF basis is 1.4331, down 0.0116 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 35.70%. T basis is 1.5973, up 0.2089 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 55.00% [5] - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL have their own values, changes, and quantiles. For example, TS's current - quarter to next - quarter spread is 0.0860, with no change from the previous day, and an all - time quantile of 43.30% [5] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., have their latest values, changes, and quantiles. For instance, TS - TF is -3.1590, up 0.0390 from the previous day, with an all - time quantile of 14.40% [5] 3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 866.52 on September 29, up 10.46 from September 26, a 1.22% increase. AG2512 contract closed at 10939, up 307 from September 26, a 2.89% increase. Foreign COMEX gold and silver also showed price increases [7] - **Spot Prices**: London gold, London silver, and domestic gold and silver spot prices all increased. For example, London gold rose from 3758.78 on September 26 to 3832.94 on September 29, a 1.97% increase [7] - **Basis and Other Data**: Basis data such as gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract, silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract, etc., have their values, changes, and quantiles. Inventory and position data of precious metals also showed certain changes [7] 4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates of MAERSK, CMA CGM, etc., showed different changes. For example, MAERSK's freight rate increased from 1613 on September 29 to 1645 on September 30, a 1.98% increase [8] - **Container Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route), SCFIS (US - West route), and other indexes showed declines. For example, SCFIS (European route) decreased from 1254.92 on September 22 to 1120.49 on September 29, a 10.71% decrease [8] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of EC2602, EC2604, etc., all decreased. The basis of the main contract decreased from -228.6 to -332.2, a 45.34% change [8] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. Shanghai's port on - time rate decreased by 43.80%, while port calls increased by 10.97%. Overseas economic indicators such as the Eurozone's composite PMI and the US manufacturing PMI showed slight increases [8]

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，贵金属再度强势上破，伦敦金站上 3800 关口，将 历史新高刷至 3819.81 美元，当前交投于 3808 附近; 伦敦银将 2011 年以来新高 刷至 47.174 美元，当前交投于 46.88 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金将新高刷至 867 元，最终收涨 1.35%，报 866.52 元/克; 沪银主力合约将上市以来新高刷至 11008 元，最终收涨 3.92%，报 10939 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅走低，当前交投于 98 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率同样回落，当前交投于 4.145%附近。 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have seen divergences, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation, reducing market risk appetite. Short - term index faces uncertainty due to shrinking trading volume, but in the long - run, with policy support for the capital market unchanged, the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in Q4, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The market may oscillate under the intertwined situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect, and if the stock market cools and allocation forces increase, the bond market may recover [7]. - For precious metals, short - term interest rate cut expectations are frustrated, but the Fed's mid - term easing pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on dips, especially paying attention to the rising opportunity of silver prices [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to have a certain degree of support in price, with some showing a trend of shock - strengthening or shock - running, mainly affected by factors such as Fed interest rate policies, trade situations, and industry supply - demand [12][14][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are under downward pressure due to weak demand, and the iron ore price may adjust downward if the downstream situation weakens after the festival. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate, and manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [31][33][39]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is weak in the short - term but bullish in the medium - term; crude oil has short - term uncertainties; and methanol's fundamentals are improving [52][54][56]. - For agricultural products, the supply - demand situation varies. For example, the pig price is weak, the egg price may stabilize after a small decline. Bean and rapeseed meal are under short - term pressure, and the price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term [74][76][81]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. The NDRC plans to build a new computing power network infrastructure. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry. The SASAC held a symposium on the economic operation of state - owned enterprises. The new energy storage market is short of cores [2]. - **期指基差比例**: IF, IC, and IM show different negative basis ratios for different contract periods, while IH has positive basis ratios in some cases [3]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainty exists, but long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In August, industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year. Eight - department issued a plan for the non - ferrous metal industry [5]. - **流动性**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with a net injection of 4115 billion yuan [6]. - **策略观点**: The bond market may oscillate in Q4, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond relationship [7]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: Domestic and foreign precious metals had different price changes, and the positions of precious metal futures and ETFs increased significantly [8]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to go long on dips, especially for silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: Copper prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis. Import losses and refined - waste spreads also had corresponding changes [11]. - **策略观点**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: Aluminum prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [13]. - **策略观点**: Aluminum prices have strong support below [14]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: Zinc prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [15]. - **策略观点**: Short - term zinc prices may be weak [16]. Lead - **行情资讯**: Lead prices increased slightly, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lead prices may be strong [17]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: Nickel prices oscillated, with changes in spot prices and costs [18]. - **策略观点**: Short - term observation is recommended, and long on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [18]. Tin - **行情资讯**: Tin prices oscillated, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [19]. - **策略观点**: Tin prices may continue to oscillate, and observation is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**: Carbonate lithium prices had different changes, and the price of lithium concentrate was stable [21]. - **策略观点**: Carbonate lithium futures may oscillate within a range [22]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: Alumina prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [23]. - **策略观点**: Observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: Stainless steel prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [25]. - **策略观点**: Stainless steel prices may oscillate in the short - term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **策略观点**: Futures may be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [30]. - **策略观点**: Steel prices may be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the policies of the Fourth Plenary Session [31]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: Iron ore prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **策略观点**: Short - term iron ore prices may be strong, but may adjust downward after the festival if downstream demand weakens [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: Glass and soda ash prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [34][36]. - **策略观点**: Glass can be considered slightly bullish in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [35][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [38]. - **策略观点**: They are likely to follow the black sector's trend, and manganese - silicon may have potential driving factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: Industrial silicon prices declined, and polysilicon prices had a small increase, with changes in inventory and basis [41][44]. - **策略观点**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon prices may decline in the short - term [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: Rubber prices were weak, with factors such as expected state reserve sales and weather affecting the market [47]. - **策略观点**: Mid - term bullish, short - term weak, and observation is recommended after the festival [52]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: Crude oil and related product prices increased, with changes in inventory [53]. - **策略观点**: Short - term uncertainties exist, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and observe [54]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: Methanol prices had small changes, with changes in basis [55]. - **策略观点**: The fundamentals are improving, and short - term long positions can be considered on dips [56]. Urea - **行情资讯**: Urea prices declined slightly, with changes in basis [57]. - **策略观点**: Low - valuation and weak - driving, long positions can be considered on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [58]. - **策略观点**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and observation is recommended [59]. PVC - **行情资讯**: PVC prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [60]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: Ethylene glycol prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [62]. - **策略观点**: In the short - term, inventory may be low, but it will accumulate in the fourth quarter, and short - term long positions on dips can be considered [63]. PTA - **行情资讯**: PTA prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [64]. - **策略观点**: The supply - demand situation is complex, and observation is recommended [65]. Para - Xylene - **行情资讯**: PX prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [66]. - **策略观点**: PX may accumulate inventory, and observation is recommended [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: PE prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [68]. - **策略观点**: PE prices may oscillate upward [69]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: PP prices declined, with changes in inventory and basis [70]. - **策略观点**: PP is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high [71]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price fluctuated slightly, with most areas seeing a decline [73]. - **策略观点**: The pig price may be weak, and short - term short positions on near - month contracts and reverse spreads are recommended [74]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was stable with a small decline in some areas [75]. - **策略观点**: The egg price may stabilize after a small decline, and short - term observation is recommended [76]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: The price of US soybeans oscillated, and the domestic bean meal price was stable. The supply - demand situation was complex [77]. - **策略观点**: Short - term pressure exists, and in the medium - term, the market is expected to oscillate [78]. Edible Oils - **行情资讯**: The price of edible oils rebounded, and the supply - demand situation in Malaysia and Indonesia had different changes [79][80]. - **策略观点**: The price of edible oils may strengthen in the medium - term, and long positions can be considered on dips [81]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: The sugar price declined slightly, and the supply - demand situation in major producing areas is expected to change [82]. - **策略观点**: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, and observation is recommended before the festival [83]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: The cotton price declined, and the supply - demand situation was complex [84][85]. - **策略观点**: The cotton price is affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [86].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年9月29日 | 品种 | 長新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | -25.05 | 17,60% | F期现价差 | 6.24 | 30.30% | | | | | | | | | | | HH相邮价案 | 76.40% | 3.38 | 2.52 | 74.1096 | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -160.91 | 13.81 | 2.40% | 0.20% | 16.32 | IM期现价差 | -208.39 | 30.00% | 2.60% | | 次月-当月 | -10.80 | 3.00 | 35.60% | 35,60% | 李月-崇月 | ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年9月29日 | 品种 | 長新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | -25.05 | 17,60% | F期现价差 | 6.24 | 30.30% | | | | | | | | | | | HH相邮价案 | 76.40% | 3.38 | 2.52 | 74.1096 | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -160.91 | 13.81 | 2.40% | 0.20% | 16.32 | IM期现价差 | -208.39 | 30.00% | 2.60% | | 次月-当月 | -10.80 | 3.00 | 35.60% | 35,60% | 李月-崇月 | ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倚宁 | 2025年9月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | -31,29 | F期现价差 | 4.78 | 23.30% | 12.00% | | | | | | | H期现价差 | 0.86 | 0.57 | 59.00% | 61.50% | 期现价差 | -174.72 | -8.01 | IC期现价差 | 1.60% | 0.10% | IM期现价差 | -224.71 | 6.31 | 25.0096 | 1.70% | | 次月-当月 | -13.80 | 1.00 | 26.60% | 30.30% | 李月-当月 | 47 ...