知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年11月25日 | 음원 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | 价差 | 12.36 | 33.00% | 上期验价差 | -12.85 | 54.50% | | | | | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | 3.29 | -6.16 | 30.70% | 30.80% | 期现价差 | -41.37 | IC期现价差 | 6.04 | 54.00% | 28.30% | 90.00% | IM期现价差 | -61.21 | 27.31 | 32.20% | | 次月-当月 | -15.80 | 37.00 | 26.6 ...

| | | 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月24日 | 股资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | F期现价差 | -25.21 | 0.54 | 36.80% | 18.00% | | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -9.45 | -3.76 | 27.40% | 22.40% | | | | IC期现价差 | -47.41 | 14.54 | 47.90% | 22.00% | | | | IM期现价差 | -49.50 | 12.20 | 95.0096 | 38.60% | | | | 次月-当月 | -52.80 | -34.00 | 0.40% | 4.60% | | | | 李月-当月 | -83.80 | -32.00 | 6.90% | 10.30% | | | | 远月-当月 | -131.00 | -34.00 ...

类别 宏观贵金属周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 美联储 12 月会议或暂停降息 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：中国财政收入加快修复 2025 年 1-10 月份中国一般公共预算收入累积同比增长 0.82%，增速较 1-9 的 0.5%进一步提升，财政收入加快修复为中国财政政策继续发挥稳增长作用提供了 必要条件。财政收入改善的影响因素，首先是在投资和消费支持政策以及反内卷 政策指引下，今年来企业利润状况改善；其次是 2026 年中国股票市场和贵金属市 场表现活跃，相关税收显著增长；最后是税务部门加强税收征缴管理工作 ...

注散信念众号 | 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可 【 2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年11月21日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2512合约 | 932.56 | 937.00 | -4.44 | -0.47% | 7L/5 | | AG2512合约 | 12050 | 12148 | -98 | -0.81% | 元/干克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 张联帽 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4076.70 | 4078.30 | -1.60 | -0.04% | | | COMEX白银主力合约 | 50.36 | 51.07 | -0.71 | -1.39% | 美元/盎司 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | ...

体用若中的信息的表源于被广发期货有限公司认为可更的已公开资料，但广拔期货对这些信息的准确性及完整体不作任印保证。本报告冠2般研究人员的不同规 点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其物审机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所转达的意见并不得负成所达品种买卖职出 价或向价，投资者假比投资，风险回担。本报告高在发送给广发期始特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有、未经广发筑途符图1段见、任何人不得对 本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为"广发期货"。 广发期货有限公司提醒广大投资者: 期市有风险 入市需谨慎! 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年11月21日 | 较前一日变化 | 品种 | ...

流动性日报 | 2025-11-21 市场流动性概况 2025-11-20，股指板块成交7277.94亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.76%；持仓金额13395.53亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.73%；成交持仓比为53.89%。 国债板块成交5752.31亿元，较上一交易日变动+25.53%；持仓金额8382.21亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.09%；成交 持仓比为67.68%。 基本金属板块成交5640.88亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.94%；持仓金额6061.92亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.64%；成 交持仓比为113.62%。 贵金属板块成交9770.91亿元，较上一交易日变动+21.73%；持仓金额4473.43亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.71%；成 交持仓比为290.76%。 能源化工板块成交5294.15亿元，较上一交易日变动+11.44%；持仓金额4563.58亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.98%； 成交持仓比为108.10%。 农产品板块成交3093.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.18%；持仓金额5996.57亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.17%；成 交持仓比为44.96%。 黑色建材板块成交26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market's technology - growth sector remains the main line, and in the long - term, there is a policy - supported attitude towards the capital market, suggesting a mid - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover, with its supply - demand pattern potentially improving in the fourth quarter, but influenced by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw and increasing allocation forces [7]. - For precious metals, the U.S. labor market shows a trend of weakening, and it is recommended to buy silver on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals [12][14][16]. - The steel market is in the off - season, with prices likely to oscillate weakly in the short term but may have a marginal inflection point with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement [29]. - The energy - chemical sector presents various trends, such as rubber having both bullish and bearish factors, and different chemical products having different supply - demand and price trends [44][50]. - The agricultural products market has different outlooks for different products, like pigs having a bearish long - term outlook but potential short - term rebounds, and eggs expected to oscillate in the short term [69][71]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: News includes potential Chinese counter - measures against Japan, AI development plans in Guangdong, Google's Gemini 3 leading in the large - model competition, and warnings about the venture - capital sector [2]. - **Strategy**: After a previous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly. Technology - growth is the main line, and a mid - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts have different price changes. The 11 - month LPR remains stable, and the central bank conducts 3000 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 1100 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The fourth - quarter bond market's supply - demand pattern may improve, and it is expected to oscillate and recover, influenced by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices decline. U.S. employment data is mixed, with some sectors showing weakness [8]. - **Strategy**: The U.S. labor market is trending weakly. It is recommended to buy silver on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices oscillate and decline. LME copper inventory increases, and domestic social inventory shows slight changes [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates remains low, but copper prices have strong support due to tight supply and reduced inventory - accumulation pressure [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rise and then fall. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories show different trends [13]. - **Strategy**: With a marginal decrease in domestic aluminum ingot inventory and low overseas inventory, aluminum prices have strong support and may strengthen after oscillation [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices decline. Zinc ore inventory slightly increases, and LME zinc ingot inventory shows certain changes [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc ore is in short supply during the winter stockpiling period. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices decline. Lead ore inventory slightly increases, and domestic social inventory shows marginal accumulation [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai lead market turning from long to short [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rise and then fall. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel - iron prices continue to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The short - term downward space of nickel prices is limited, but there is a risk of negative feedback. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices decline. Supply is affected by raw - material shortages, and demand in emerging fields provides support [19]. - **Strategy**: Tin supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Buying on dips is recommended [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices show different trends. Production increases, and inventory decreases [21]. - **Strategy**: The industry has strong demand, but price increases may trigger potential disturbances. Attention should be paid to relevant factors, and a reference price range is provided [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decline. Overseas ore prices are expected to oscillate downward, and domestic inventory shows accumulation [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with a reference price range provided and attention to relevant policies [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices decline. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to continue to decline due to over - supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum - alloy prices decline. Inventory shows different trends [26]. - **Strategy**: Casting aluminum - alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to strong cost support and general demand [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices decline. Threaded steel and hot - rolled coil show different supply - demand and inventory situations [28]. - **Strategy**: Steel demand is in the off - season, with short - term weak oscillation expected, but a marginal inflection point may occur later [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices decline. The Ximangduo project starts production, and overseas shipments increase [30]. - **Strategy**: Iron - ore supply is strong, demand is stable, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices decline, and inventory increases. Soda - ash prices decline, and inventory decreases [32][34]. - **Strategy**: Glass industry fundamentals are weak, and soda - ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [34][35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices decline. They are in an oscillation range [36]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to pay attention to the market - sentiment inflection point. Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [37]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon and polysilicon prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [39][41]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, with attention to relevant factors [40][42]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillate and rebound. There are both bullish and bearish factors [44]. - **Strategy**: A bullish approach is recommended, with a stop - loss set, and a hedging strategy is suggested [46]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil prices decline. U.S. inventory data shows different trends [47]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with a low - buying and high - selling strategy in the long term [48][49]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decline. High - inventory pressure persists [50]. - **Strategy**: Methanol prices are expected to continue to decline, with high - inventory pressure suppressing prices [50]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices oscillate and rise. Supply and demand show certain changes [51]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, and buying on dips is recommended [51]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene prices are stable, and styrene prices rise. Supply and demand show different trends [52]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling, and attention should be paid to the BZN spread [53]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decline. Supply is high, and demand is weak [54]. - **Strategy**: PVC prices are expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [55]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices decline. Supply is high, and inventory accumulates [56]. - **Strategy**: Ethylene - glycol prices are expected to decline, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [57]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [58]. - **Strategy**: PTA prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to the PXN spread [59]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [60]. - **Strategy**: p - Xylene prices are expected to oscillate, with attention to the valuation increase opportunity [61]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rise slightly. Supply and demand show different trends [62]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, influenced by factors such as inventory and demand [63]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decline. Supply and demand show different trends [64]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with potential support in the first quarter of next year [66]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices show different trends. Supply is normal, and demand is limited [68]. - **Strategy**: The long - term outlook is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. An anti - arbitrage strategy is recommended [69]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are stable or decline. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak [70]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - selling on rallies is recommended in the medium term [71]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices decline. Global soybean supply is tightening, and domestic inventory is high [73]. - **Strategy**: Soybean - meal prices are expected to oscillate, with cost support and pressure on squeezing profits [74]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil export data is weak, and domestic oil prices decline [75]. - **Strategy**: Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate. A bullish approach can be considered if production declines [76]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices decline. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season [77]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies due to expected oversupply and high import profits [79]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillate. Domestic production is high, and demand is weak [80]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term due to weak demand and high selling - hedging pressure [82].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | 2025年11月21日 | 较前一日变化 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | | | | | | | | 价名 | -25.75 | 34:80% | 17.50% | F期现价差 | -2.66 | | | | | | | | | | | | H期现价差 | 3.66 | -5.69 | 30.70% | 31.80% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -61.95 | 6.00 | 37.20% | 12.90% | IM期现价差 | -76.81 | 7.29 | 95.00% | 25.50% | | 次月-当月 | -18.80 | -0.60 | 20.9096 | 24.10% | 李月-景月 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-21 就业数据分化，12⽉降息存疑 周四贵⾦属价格震荡运⾏。美国披露9⽉⾮农数据，继7、8⽉的⾮农显著 ⾛弱后，9⽉新增⾮农就业⼈数超预期回升，但失业率同步上⾏。基于 10、11⽉⾮农将于12⽉FOMC之后公布，美联储数据依赖的⻛格进⼀步 降低12⽉降息概率，但停摆造成的负向冲击下，远期降息预期仍然乐观。 重点资讯： 1）美国9月季调后非农就业人口增11.9万人，预期增5万人，前值增 2.2万人；失业率为4.4%，创2021年以来新高，预期4.3%，前值4. 3%；平均每小时工资同比增3.8%，预期增3.7%，前值增3.7%。这份报 告是自美国联邦政府创纪录停摆导致官方数据中断发布以来，美国劳 工统计局发布的首个经济健康指标。意外向好的数据将强化联邦公开 市场委员会鹰派成员的立场，他们始终警告美联储不宜过快降息。 2）美国上周初请失业金人数22万人，预期23万人；四周均值22. 425万人。美国至11月8日当周续请失业金人数197.4万人，预期196万 人。 3）美国11月费城联储制造业指数为-1.7，预期2，前值- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views No clear core views are presented in the given reports. The reports mainly provide daily data on various financial products including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping, without explicit investment - related core views. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the F futures - spot spread was - 13.19, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 52.00% and an all - time quantile of 32.30%. Different contracts like H, IC, IM also had their respective futures - spot spreads and quantiles [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Such as the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts for different varieties, with values and historical quantiles provided. For instance, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of a certain variety was - 14.60, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 28.60% and an all - time quantile of 29.30% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like the ratio of IC to IF was 1.5543, with a change of - 0.0049, and 1 - year and all - time historical quantiles of 86.80% and 86.70% respectively [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: The basis of different bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, TL was reported, along with their values, changes, and historical quantiles. For example, the T basis was 1.5950, with a historical quantile of 54.70% [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads between different contract periods (current - quarter, next - quarter, etc.) of bond futures were given, including values, changes, and historical quantiles. For example, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts of TS was 0.0020, with a historical quantile of 21.40% [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond futures varieties like TS - TF, TS - T were reported, with values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, as well as spot prices of gold and silver, were presented, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the AU2512 contract of domestic gold futures closed at 937.00 yuan/gram on November 19, with a 2.01% increase [3]. - **Basis**: The basis between different gold and silver contracts (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold futures main contract) was reported, including values, changes, and historical quantiles. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures main contract was - 2.72, with a historical quantile of 48.50% [3]. - **Ratios and Yields**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and yields of US Treasury bonds (10 - year and 2 - year) were provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 79.86, with a - 0.76% change [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes of container shipping (SCFIS for European and US - West routes) and Shanghai export container freight rates (SCFI) were reported, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) was 1357.67 points on November 17, with a - 9.78% decrease compared to November 10 [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different container shipping contracts (e.g., EC2602) and their basis were presented, along with changes and percentage changes. For example, the EC2602 (main contract) was 1640.1 on November 19, with a - 2.26% decrease [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (port on - time rate, port calls), export balances, and overseas economic indicators (PMI, consumer confidence index) were provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply was 3342.26 million TEU on November 19, with a 0.01% increase [5].