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地缘端局势持续动荡 铂主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-26 06:09
Core Viewpoint - Platinum futures experienced a rapid increase, with the main contract peaking at 762.85 yuan, closing at 734.15 yuan, reflecting an 8.13% rise [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Jin Yuan Futures highlights the attention on the rebound of platinum and palladium prices due to geopolitical tensions increasing safe-haven demand and countries accelerating de-dollarization by significantly increasing gold holdings [2] - The volatility in silver has led to a 40% increase within a month, with the COMEX gold-silver ratio dropping to 48, the lowest in nearly 50 years, indicating strong performance in precious metals [2] - The current geopolitical instability is expected to keep precious metal prices strong in the short term, with platinum/gold and palladium/gold ratios still at low levels, suggesting potential for a rebound in platinum and palladium prices [2] Group 2: Demand Factors - Ruida Futures notes that platinum shows more resilience compared to palladium, especially after the EU postponed the internal combustion engine ban and strengthened automotive emissions standards, leading to increased platinum loading intensity [2] - The automotive catalyst's demand for platinum is expected to add approximately 450,000 ounces this year, despite a mild adjustment in global passenger car sales due to recession concerns [2] - The rise in penetration rates for hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium to long-term demand curve for platinum, supported by the IEA's latest hydrogen outlook predicting a cumulative installation of PEM electrolyzers to exceed 17 GW by 2030 [2] Group 3: Supply and Price Dynamics - The uncertainty surrounding South African power supply and Russian exports, combined with new automotive emission policies, is expected to make platinum more resilient compared to palladium [2] - The differentiated supply-demand dynamics may continue to drive a "strong platinum, weak palladium" market trend [2] - Price levels to watch include resistance at $2,900/oz for platinum and support at $2,700/oz, while palladium has resistance at $2,100/oz and support at $1,900/oz [2]