| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） -2.70↓ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 537.50 | | 429.05 | -4.60↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 10387.00 | | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） 5.48↑ 长江钯金现货平均价 | 549.47 | | 420.00 | -8.00↓ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | 11.97 | 8.18↑ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -9.05 | -3.40↓ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 9966.00 | | -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 3003.00 | | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 -0.80↓ 供应量: ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The successful breakthrough in the first - round US - Iran nuclear talks has marginally warmed market sentiment. The rebound in risk appetite has pressured the US dollar to correct, leading to a collective rebound in the precious metals market. The price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has risen by over 10%. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium may catch up in price with the boost of the financial attributes of gold and silver. In the short term, the trends of platinum and palladium may follow the rhythm of gold and silver, and high - volatility行情 may continue. In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm, and the supply - demand pattern differentiation may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price: 545.05 yuan/gram, up 52.15 yuan; palladium main contract closing price: 438.15 yuan/gram, up 30.90 yuan - Platinum main contract open interest: 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; palladium main contract open interest: 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 543.99 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan; Yangtze River palladium spot average price: 428.00 yuan/gram, up 40.00 yuan - Platinum main contract basis: - 1.06 yuan/gram, down 36.15 yuan; palladium main contract basis: - 10.15 yuan/gram, up 9.10 yuan - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - 2025 estimated total platinum supply: 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium supply: 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons - 2025 estimated total platinum demand: 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium demand: 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - US dollar index: 97.61, down 0.35; VIX volatility index: 17.76; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 1.88%, down 0.01 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US - Iran nuclear talks in Oman ended, and the two sides reached a consensus on continuing dialogue. - The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February in the US reached 57.3, the highest in six months, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in a year. - The People's Bank of China's gold reserves have increased for 15 consecutive months, reaching 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, an increase of 40,000 ounces month - on - month. - US President Trump signed an executive order threatening to impose tariffs on countries that purchase sanctioned Iranian goods and services. - The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Concern - US January retail sales data on February 10 at 21:30 - US January non - farm payrolls data on February 11 at 21:30 - US January CPI data on February 13 at 21:30 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the gold price. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation of the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market. The support levels for London platinum and palladium are 2000 US dollars per ounce and 1600 US dollars per ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 599.85 yuan per gram, and the closing price of the palladium main contract was 461.00 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 27.30 yuan. The main contract positions of platinum decreased by 277.00 hands to 10387.00 hands, while the main contract positions of palladium increased by 90.00 hands to 3179.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 588.10 yuan per gram, with an increase of 21.29 yuan, and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 417.00 yuan per gram, with a decrease of 4.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 16.51 yuan per gram, with a decrease, and the basis of the palladium main contract was - 44.00 yuan per gram, with a decrease of 31.30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly) decreased by 243.00 to 9966.00 contracts, and those of palladium decreased by 342.00. The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, with a decrease of 0.80 tons, and the total annual supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons, with a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, with an increase of 25.60 tons, and the total annual demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons, with a decrease of 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index decreased by 0.23 to 97.37, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.92%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 1.66 to 18.00 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump signed a government funding bill to end the partial government shutdown. Fed Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy. The US White House said that talks with Iran this week will proceed as planned. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in March is 8.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 91.1%. The overseas precious metals market sentiment has warmed up, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have strongly rebounded. The EU's delay of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards are expected to increase the substitution demand for platinum by about 450,000 ounces this year [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The release time of the US ADP employment data on February 4th is to be determined, and the US January non - farm payrolls report will be released. The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5th [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, market sentiment is weak, and the high - volatility trend in the precious metal market may continue. The platinum - palladium market may show a wide - range oscillation pattern affected by the gold price. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. Due to the uncertainty of South African power supply and Russian exports, combined with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, platinum is more resilient than palladium. The differentiation of the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the trend of "strong platinum and weak palladium". The support levels for London platinum and palladium are $1800/oz and $1500/oz respectively. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum futures main contract is 572.95 yuan/gram, and the closing price of the palladium futures main contract is 450.55 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 35.75 yuan/gram. The platinum main - contract position is 10387.00 lots, a decrease of 277.00 lots, and the palladium main - contract position is 3179.00 lots, an increase of 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 566.81 yuan/gram, and the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River region is 421.00 yuan/gram, with an increase of 30.00 yuan/gram. The platinum main - contract basis is 30.79 yuan/gram, and the palladium main - contract basis is - 29.55 yuan/gram, a decrease of 5.75 yuan/gram. The non - commercial long positions of platinum and palladium in CFTC are 9966.00 and 3003.00 contracts respectively, with decreases of 243.00 and 342.00 contracts respectively. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons, and the total annual supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons, and the total annual demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 97.61, an increase of 0.49, the real yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds is 1.94%, an increase of 0.04%, and the VIX volatility index is 16.34, a decrease of 1.10. [2] 3.5 Industry News - Iran may hold high - level nuclear negotiations with the US; the US will reduce the tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18%; the US House Speaker is confident to end the partial government shutdown; the Fed's Bostic expects no interest rate cuts in 2026; the US January ISM manufacturing PMI index reached a new high since August 2022; the Bank of Japan is more aware of the need for timely interest rate hikes. The sentiment in the overseas precious metal market has recovered, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have strongly rebounded. The EU's new vehicle emission policy may increase the demand for platinum by about 450,000 ounces, and the increase in the penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand for platinum. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The US ADP employment change on February 4 at 21:15, the European Central Bank's interest - rate decision on February 5 at 21:15, and the release of the US January non - farm payroll report (time to be determined). [2]

Core Viewpoint - The palladium futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with significant price fluctuations observed in recent trading sessions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 3, the main palladium futures contract opened at 418.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 444.70 CNY and a low of 414.15 CNY, reflecting an approximate increase of 4.71% [1]. - The overall performance of the palladium market is characterized by strong fluctuations, indicating a robust market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Guoxin Futures notes that macroeconomic factors, such as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and economic data, are influencing the financial attributes of platinum and palladium [2]. - Hualian Futures highlights that the industrial demand for platinum and palladium is primarily driven by catalytic converters in fuel vehicles, suggesting that the market's movements may be more reactive to overall sector sentiment rather than fundamental support [2]. - Ruida Futures anticipates continued high volatility in the precious metals market, with platinum potentially showing more resilience compared to palladium due to uncertainties in South African power supply and Russian exports, alongside new automotive emission regulations [2]. Group 3: Price Levels and Support - The support levels for platinum and palladium are identified as 1800 USD/ounce and 1500 USD/ounce, respectively, indicating critical price points for market participants to monitor [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner. The Fed maintained interest rates as expected, and future policies will depend on data. The expectation of a rate cut in March this year has weakened, but there is still an expectation of a rate cut in the second half of the year. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Iran may provide potential safe - haven support for platinum and palladium prices. [7] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards, the increasing penetration of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook also confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices. [7] - In the short term, there are many global macro - disturbance factors, and high market volatility may continue. In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium will still dominate the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The supply - demand pattern divergence may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The London platinum and palladium markets trended weaker in a volatile manner this week. The Fed's interest - rate decision was in line with market expectations. The expectation of a rate cut in March has weakened, but there is still a possibility in the second half of the year. The US - Iran situation may support prices. [7] - The EU's new policies on vehicle emissions will increase the demand for platinum in automotive catalysts. The long - term demand for platinum may improve. The market will be volatile in the short term, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend may continue in the medium - to - long term. The resistance and support levels for London platinum are $2,800/oz and $2,600/oz respectively, and for London palladium are $2,100/oz and $1,900/oz respectively. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - On Friday, there was concentrated profit - taking in the precious - metals market, leading to a significant correction in the platinum and palladium markets. As of January 30, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium futures contract 2606 rose 6.81% week - on - week to 464.05 yuan/gram, while the platinum futures contract 2606 fell 8.07% week - on - week to 630.55 yuan/gram. [8][12] - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 20, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 21,782 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50%, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2,762 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 4.43%. [13][17] - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures contracts weakened this week. [18] - NYMEX platinum inventory decreased, while palladium inventory increased. As of January 29, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 655,182.10 ounces, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61%, and palladium inventory was 224,021.17 ounces, a week - on - week increase of 3.59%. [22][26] - The ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold has significantly increased compared to the beginning of 2025. [27] - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum exchange inventory and US Treasury real yields has rebounded. [32] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased. [37] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts is marginally weakening. The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a mild slow - down trend. Due to geopolitical conflicts and power - supply disruptions, the global supply of platinum and palladium is decreasing. The price difference between London and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange for platinum and palladium has become stable. [43][52][56] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index continued to weaken, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained basically unchanged. [60]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm in the medium and long term. The uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum should pay attention to the upper resistance level of $2800 per ounce and the lower support level of $2600 per ounce; the London palladium should pay attention to the upper resistance level of $2100 per ounce and the lower support level of $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 714.10 yuan/gram (up 13.60), and the closing price of the palladium main contract is 526.60 yuan/gram (up 15.10). The main contract position of platinum is 10387.00 hands (down 277.00), and the main contract position of palladium is 3179.00 hands (up 90.00) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 703.90 yuan/gram (up 33.45), and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 502.00 yuan/gram (up 42.00). The basis of the platinum main contract is - 10.20 yuan/gram (up 19.85), and the basis of the palladium main contract is - 24.60 yuan/gram (up 26.90) [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly, contracts) are 9966.00 (down 243.00), and those of palladium are 3003.00 (down 342.00). The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 0.80), and the total supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons (down 5.00). The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons (up 25.60), and the total demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons (down 27.00) [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 96.35 (up 0.59), the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.90% (unchanged), and the VIX volatility index is 16.35 (up 0.20) [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts, in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point cut, consistent with Trump - nominated director Milan. The Fed pointed out that the unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation remains relatively high, and economic prospects are still highly uncertain. Fed Chair Powell said that raising interest rates is not anyone's basic assumption for the next move, and he doesn't believe the Fed will lose its independence and will advise the next Fed Chair to stay away from politics. - US President Trump threatened Iran again, saying the next attack on Iran will be more severe and a large fleet is heading to Iran. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's meeting showed that if the outlook meets expectations, it is advisable to continue raising interest rates. Members agreed that even if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates at this meeting, the monetary policy environment will remain loose. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 13.5%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 86.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in total by April is 24.1%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 74%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in total is 2.0% [2] 3.6 Market Analysis - Boosted by the overall optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market, the London platinum and palladium markets strengthened with fluctuations. At the macro level, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged as expected, and there is still an expectation of gradually restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. The continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar has increased the holding cost of RMB - denominated platinum and palladium, resulting in the recent overall increase of domestic platinum and palladium prices being weaker than that of the external market. The EU officially postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and simultaneously strengthened automobile exhaust emission standards, bringing higher platinum loading intensity. The substitution demand for platinum in automobile catalysts is expected to increase by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales volume is moderately adjusted downward due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - and long - term demand curve for platinum. The latest hydrogen energy outlook from the IEA also confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential elasticity for the platinum price [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On January 29th, 21:30, the US November trade balance (imports and exports); on January 30th, 21:30, the US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. Due to the uncertainty of South Africa's power supply and Russia's exports, along with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, platinum is more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum price is expected to face resistance at $2800 per ounce and find support at $2600 per ounce, while the London palladium price may face resistance at $2100 per ounce and find support at $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 694.80 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.20 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 504.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 9.25 yuan. The main - contract holding volume of platinum was 10387.00 hands, a decrease of 277.00 hands; the main - contract holding volume of palladium was 3179.00 hands, an increase of 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 670.45 yuan/gram, a decrease of 15.25 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 460.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 20.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 24.35 yuan/gram, a decrease of 14.05 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 44.00 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.75 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly) were 9966.00 contracts, a decrease of 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly) were 3003.00 contracts, a decrease of 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 95.76, a decrease of 1.28; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.90%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 16.35, an increase of 0.20 [2] 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US is deploying troops to Iran and imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, and has also imposed a new round of sanctions on entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. Trump also said that the US expects to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base is located in Greenland. Multiple Democratic senators in the US will vote against the government appropriation bill, increasing the possibility of a partial government shutdown at the end of January. Trump may announce the new Fed chairperson as early as this week, and Rick Rieder of BlackRock has a 50% chance of being nominated. Trump has decided to raise the tariff rate on South Korean cars, timber, pharmaceutical products, etc. from 15% to 25% [2] 3.6 Market Performance - The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened in intraday trading, while the spot prices of platinum and palladium in London rebounded strongly due to the sharp rise of gold. The continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar has increased the holding cost of RMB - denominated platinum and palladium, resulting in weaker recent price increases in the domestic platinum and palladium markets compared to overseas [2] 3.7 Demand Outlook - The EU's formal postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and the strengthening of automobile exhaust emission standards at the end of last year will increase the demand for platinum in automobile catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential price support for platinum [2] 3.8 Key Events to Watch - On January 28 at 02:00, the US M2 money supply; on January 29 at 03:00, the Fed's interest - rate decision and monetary policy statement; on January 29 at 21:30, the US November trade balance (imports and exports); on January 30 at 21:30, the US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm in the medium to long term. The uncertainties in South African power supply and Russian exports, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the market trend of "strong platinum and weak palladium" [2]. - For the operating range, the upper resistance level of London platinum is $2,800 per ounce, and the lower support level is $2,600 per ounce. The upper resistance level of London palladium is $2,100 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1,900 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 705.70 yuan per gram, a decrease of 34.10 yuan. The closing price of the palladium main contract was 523.00 yuan per gram, a decrease of 11.10 yuan. - The main - contract positions of platinum were 10,387 hands, a decrease of 277 hands. The main - contract positions of palladium were 3,179 hands, an increase of 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 685.70 yuan per gram, a decrease of 47.55 yuan. The average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 480.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 2.00 yuan. - The basis of the platinum main contract was - 13.45 yuan per gram, a decrease. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 43.00 yuan per gram, an increase of 13.10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 9,966, a decrease of 243. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 3,003, a decrease of 342. - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, a decrease of 0.80 tons. The total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, a decrease of 5.00 tons. - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, an increase of 25.60 tons. The total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, a decrease of 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 97.50, a decrease of 0.78. The real yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 1.92%, a decrease of 0.03%. - The VIX volatility index was 16.09, an increase of 0.45 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that the US is deploying heavy troops to Iran and many ships are moving towards Iran. A 25% tariff on all countries trading with Iran will soon take effect, and a new round of sanctions has been imposed on multiple entities and ships related to Iran's energy and shipping systems. - Trump said that the US expects to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base in Greenland is located, not involving the US taking over Greenland entirely, but making US military facilities such as the Pituffik Space Base under US sovereign control. - Multiple Democratic US senators said they would vote against the government appropriation bill that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security, greatly increasing the possibility of a partial "shutdown" of the federal government at the end of January due to lack of funds. - Trump may announce the new Federal Reserve Chairman as early as this week. Rick Rieder, an executive of global asset management giant BlackRock, has quickly become the top candidate, with the probability of his nomination rising from 4% to about 50%. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 15.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 84.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4% [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - January 30, 21:30, US PPI year - on - year (%) - January 28, 02:00, US M2 money supply - January 29, 03:00, Federal Reserve interest rate decision and monetary policy statement - January 29, 21:30, US November trade balance (imports and exports) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff tension between the US and Europe has eased, but Trump's stance on the acquisition of Greenland remains tough, keeping the short - term risk - aversion sentiment high [2] - In South Africa, the phased load reduction continues, and the risk of power outages during peak night hours restricts the short - term increase in smelter operating rates [2] - The continuous strengthening of the US dollar against the South African rand partially offsets the local currency cost pressure, but a continued depreciation of the rand will suppress marginal supply in US dollars [2] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the substitution demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year [2] - Although global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the rising penetration of hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [2] - The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolysers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm, and the uncertainty of South African power supply and Russian exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium [2] - The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend [2] - For London platinum, the upper resistance is at $2900 per ounce, and the lower support is at $2700 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is at $2100 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum主力合约 is 744.70 yuan/gram, up 65.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium主力合约 is 534.80 yuan/gram, up 35.80 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约持仓 volume is 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the palladium主力合约持仓 volume is 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 733.25 yuan, up 51.75 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot average price is 0.00 yuan, down 463.00 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约 basis is - 11.45 yuan/gram, down 14.00 yuan; the palladium主力合约 basis is - 534.80 yuan/gram, down 498.80 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2] - The estimated total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the estimated total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2] - The estimated total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the estimated total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.50, down 0.78; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, down 0.03% [2] - The VIX volatility index is 16.09, up 0.45 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US is deploying troops to Iran, imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, and sanctioning entities related to Iran's energy and shipping systems [2] - Trump said the US expects to gain "sovereignty" over the area of US military bases in Greenland [2] - Some Democratic senators will vote against the government funding bill, increasing the possibility of a partial government "shutdown" at the end of January [2] - Trump may announce the new Fed chair this week, and Rick Rieder's probability of being nominated has risen from 4% to about 50% [2] - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value; the Services PMI preliminary value is flat at 52.5; the Composite PMI preliminary value rises slightly to 52.8. All three are slightly lower than expected. The one - year inflation expectation in January 2026 is revised down to 4%, the lowest in a year [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth forecast at 23:30 on January 26 [2] - US M2 money supply at 02:00 on January 28 [2] - Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 03:00 on January 29 [2] - US November trade balance (imports and exports) at 21:30 on January 29 [2] - US PPI year - on - year (%) at 21:30 on January 30 [2]