Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "Caida Futures | Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore" [1] - Report Date: October 20, 2025 [2] - Report Core Theme: "Supply - demand margin gradually weakens, and rebar and iron ore continue the adjustment trend" [3] Group 2: Rebar Analysis Futures - This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained an adjustment trend driven by the increase in short - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 3037 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan from last week, with a weekly decline of 2.13% [5] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream rebar regions were generally lowered, and the overall trading volume slightly weakened. As of Friday, the national average rebar quotation was lowered by 48 yuan to 3215 yuan/ton, with different price drops in various regions [5] Fundamental Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from last week and up 2.59% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, down 0.22% from last week and up 2.34% year - on - year. The average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills was 68.85%, up 1.79% from last week and down 0.73% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.2%, up 2.13% from last week and up 1.32% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output decreased by 2.24 tons to 201.16 tons, still at a low level compared with the same period [5] Short - flow steel mills - Currently, the estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China is 3213 yuan, down 22 yuan from last week. The rebar electric furnace profit is a loss of 323 yuan, and the loss margin has widened by 38 yuan compared with last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces in the country continued to rise this week, with some steel mills having electric furnace overhauls and some resuming production [5] Long - flow steel mills - Currently, the estimated cost of crude steel in East China is 2900 yuan, down 23 yuan from last week. The rebar blast furnace profit is a loss of 10 yuan, down 37 yuan from last week. This week, the domestic blast furnace capacity utilization rate continued to slightly decrease, and the long - flow steel mill profit continued to slightly shrink [8] Demand - This week, the building materials trading volume continued to slightly decrease, while the apparent consumption of rebar began to slightly increase. The 5 - day average trading volume of building materials decreased by 0.79 tons to 9.70 tons, and the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 73.74 tons to 219.75 tons. In absolute terms, the apparent consumption of rebar remained at a low level compared with the same period [8] Inventory - This week, the inventories of five major steel products and rebar began to slightly reduce. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons to 641.05 tons, still at a low level compared with the same period. Among them, the social rebar inventory decreased by 10.89 tons to 456.41 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 7.7 tons to 184.64 tons [8] Basis - As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, with a premium of 133 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 14 yuan compared with last week. Currently, the rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis will continue to contract in the future [8] Comprehensive Judgment - Affected by steel mill overhauls, the short - term rebar output decreased slightly; the rebar inventory began to slightly decline, and the apparent consumption of rebar slowly increased, but the speculative demand was still weak. Attention should be paid to whether there are signs of marginal weakening in delivery warehouse receipts and foreign capital positions, and whether the trade - war tariff increases continue to escalate, which may put pressure on the market [8] Group 3: Iron Ore Analysis Futures - This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained an adjustment trend driven by the increase in short - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 771.0 yuan/ton, down 24.0 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decline of 3.02% [8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported ore varieties were generally slightly lowered, and the prices of domestic iron concentrates began to stabilize and decline, with the overall trading volume improving. As of Friday, the prices of various iron ore varieties at different ports decreased to varying degrees [8] Fundamental Supply - As of the 13th, the total shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2731.0 tons, a decrease of 94.9 tons compared with last week. The shipment volume from Australia was 1916.3 tons, a decrease of 63.6 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1584.5 tons, a decrease of 76.7 tons. The shipment volume from Brazil was 814.7 tons, a decrease of 31.3 tons. In absolute terms, the current shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore remained at a medium - high level compared with the same period. The total arrival volume at 45 ports was 3045.8 tons, an increase of 437.1 tons compared with last week; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1423.5 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons [10] Demand - Currently, the daily average ore removal volume at 45 ports is 315.72 tons, a decrease of 11.28 tons compared with last week. In absolute terms, it remained at a medium - high level compared with the same period; the weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot was 115.4 tons, an increase of 45.8 tons compared with last week, and it has recovered to the average level of the same period. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons compared with last week and an increase of 6.59 tons compared with last year. In absolute terms, it has recovered to a medium - high level compared with the same period; the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills was 297.35 tons, a decrease of 0.96 tons compared with last week, and in absolute terms, it remained at a medium - high level compared with the same period [10] Inventory - As of the 17th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to slightly increase, currently at 14278.27 tons, an increase of 253.77 tons compared with last week. In absolute terms, it remained at a medium - high level compared with the same period; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8982.73 tons, a decrease of 63.47 tons compared with last week, and in absolute terms, it remained at a relatively low level compared with the same period [10] Basis - As of Friday, the Newman powder at Rizhao Port was the optimal delivery product at 821 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, an expansion of 15 yuan compared with last week. Currently, the iron ore basis is above the average level. Based on seasonal trends and the basis regression cycle, it is expected that the space for the iron ore basis to continue to expand is limited, and the probability of contraction is relatively high [10] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the shipment volume of imported ore continued to slightly decline, and it is expected that the arrival volume will slightly increase next week, and the port inventory still faces certain pressure. On the demand side, the short - term daily average hot - metal output continued to decline, and the steel mill's daily consumption slightly decreased. In the short term, steel mills continue to adopt a digestion strategy, and the marginal weakening of iron ore supply - demand puts pressure on the market [10]