国际货币基金组织(IMF)12月8日正式启动其上海区域中心的运营，标志着这一平台进入实质性运作阶 段。 IMF官网显示，维甘德在IMF担任经济学家超过25年，曾任IMF亚太区域研究司司长，以及战略、政策 与评估部气候与发展政策司司长。他还曾在IMF研究部和欧洲部担任高级职务。维甘德博士的研究领域 广泛，涵盖亚太地区的结构转型与增长、欧洲货币与经济史、货币制度、美元化以及全球气候变化减缓 政策等。加入IMF之前，他曾在伦敦政治经济学院任教。 曹莉担任过中国人民银行国际司副司长、数字货币研究所副所长，博鳌亚洲论坛研究院副院长，中国驻 IMF执行董事顾问等高级职务，她在诸多领域开展过政策研究和实践，包括全球金融危机救助、国际金 融标准制定、发展融资以及数字化和绿色可持续发展。 格奥尔基耶娃表示，上海中心将促进各方(包括IMF内部)对亚洲视角予以更广泛的重视，并成为连接 IMF总部经济学家与亚洲经济学者之间的桥梁。最重要的是，上海中心将扮演促进政策研究的枢纽角 色。 这一项目的落地可追溯至去年6月。当时，在陆家嘴论坛期间，IMF与中国人民银行宣布将在上海设立 新的IMF区域中心。 未来聚焦三大重点 促进政策研究的枢纽 ...

Core Insights - The ASEAN and China-Japan-South Korea macroeconomic research office has raised the growth forecast for the region to 4.1% for 2025, up from previous estimates, reflecting strong economic performance in the first half of the year and better-than-expected export momentum [1] Economic Outlook - The average economic growth rate for the ASEAN and China-Japan-South Korea region is projected to be 4.1% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, indicating an upward revision from July forecasts [1] - The upward revision is attributed to robust economic performance and export dynamics in the first half of the year [1] Trade and Market Dynamics - Export-oriented enterprises, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises reliant on the U.S. market, may face profit pressures due to changing trade patterns [1] - Rising U.S. tariffs could sustain inflation, posing challenges to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potentially leading to spillover effects [1] - Increased uncertainty regarding the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status may further fragment the global financial system [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in international perceptions towards China, with many businesses expressing confidence in expanding trade relationships with China and other regions despite global trade uncertainties [1][4][7] - A recent HSBC survey indicates that 74% of Hong Kong enterprises remain optimistic about international trade over the next two years, with a focus on deepening ties with mainland China, South Asia, and Europe [4][9] - The Morning Consult data shows that as of the end of May, China's net support rate stands at 8.8, while the U.S. is at -1.5, indicating a growing favorable perception of China compared to the declining reputation of the U.S. [2][7][8] Group 2 - 76% of Hong Kong businesses are adjusting pricing strategies to cope with rising costs and market changes, while 73% are exploring new markets less affected by trade disruptions [4][5] - In mainland China, 90% of enterprises are confident about continuing international trade, with 84% believing that trade uncertainties are driving them to innovate and seek new opportunities [4][9] - The CEO confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to 34 points, the lowest since the survey began in 1976, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the economic future among U.S. business leaders [2][9]