Core Insights - The ASEAN and China-Japan-South Korea macroeconomic research office has raised the growth forecast for the region to 4.1% for 2025, up from previous estimates, reflecting strong economic performance in the first half of the year and better-than-expected export momentum [1] Economic Outlook - The average economic growth rate for the ASEAN and China-Japan-South Korea region is projected to be 4.1% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026, indicating an upward revision from July forecasts [1] - The upward revision is attributed to robust economic performance and export dynamics in the first half of the year [1] Trade and Market Dynamics - Export-oriented enterprises, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises reliant on the U.S. market, may face profit pressures due to changing trade patterns [1] - Rising U.S. tariffs could sustain inflation, posing challenges to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potentially leading to spillover effects [1] - Increased uncertainty regarding the U.S. dollar's safe-haven status may further fragment the global financial system [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in international perceptions towards China, with many businesses expressing confidence in expanding trade relationships with China and other regions despite global trade uncertainties [1][4][7] - A recent HSBC survey indicates that 74% of Hong Kong enterprises remain optimistic about international trade over the next two years, with a focus on deepening ties with mainland China, South Asia, and Europe [4][9] - The Morning Consult data shows that as of the end of May, China's net support rate stands at 8.8, while the U.S. is at -1.5, indicating a growing favorable perception of China compared to the declining reputation of the U.S. [2][7][8] Group 2 - 76% of Hong Kong businesses are adjusting pricing strategies to cope with rising costs and market changes, while 73% are exploring new markets less affected by trade disruptions [4][5] - In mainland China, 90% of enterprises are confident about continuing international trade, with 84% believing that trade uncertainties are driving them to innovate and seek new opportunities [4][9] - The CEO confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to 34 points, the lowest since the survey began in 1976, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the economic future among U.S. business leaders [2][9]