截至2026年2月25日，加元兑美元实时汇率报0.7302，较前一交易日微涨0.027%，昨收0.7300、今开 0.7301，近期呈窄幅震荡、整体偏弱态势。加元走势受多重因素影响，加拿大央行利率维稳提供短期支 撑，但经济疲软、出口承压及美国贸易扰动，使其短期难破震荡区间，中期取决于经济复苏与货币政策 导向。 关键点位方面，上方0.7350-0.7360压力凸显，多次未能突破，站稳后可看向0.7400关口；下方0.7280为 关键支撑，跌破或下探0.7250-0.7270区间。 2025年加元兑美元震荡下行，围绕0.72-0.74区间波动，主要受央行降息、经济放缓及美国贸易扰动影 响。当年10月央行将利率降至2.25%后暂停降息，汇率进入窄幅震荡，年底收于0.73附近。 2026年机构预判谨慎，多数认为央行维稳将限制加元下行，经济疲软与出口压力制约上行，预计全年波 动于0.72-0.745区间。中加经贸落地、原油回升将提振加元；美国贸易收紧、经济复苏不及预期则可能 导致其走弱。 投资者短期关注加拿大通胀、失业率及美国贸易动向，中期跟踪经济复苏、央行政策及大宗商品走势。 当前汇率震荡博弈，建议谨慎操作、控制仓位 ...

印度尼西亚中央统计局日前公布的数据显示，2025年印尼国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.11%，这一 数字不仅高于2024年的5.03%和2023年的5.05%，更创下2022年以来的最高增速。印尼经济在连续两年 增速放缓后，重新步入加速回暖的轨道。 从印尼经济走势来看，2022年疫情限制措施全面解除后，其经济增速曾攀升至5.31%，但随后两年增速 逐步放缓，分别回落至5.05%和5.03%。2025年5.11%的增速虽未恢复至2022年的高点，却已成功扭转此 前的下行态势。 从季度表现来看，2025年印尼经济呈现逐季加速的态势，增长动能持续积聚。一季度经济增长4.87%， 二季度跃升至5.12%，创下2023年二季度以来的最快增速；三季度保持稳健增长，增速达5.04%；四季 度更是升至5.39%，为2022年三季度以来的最高季度增速。印尼中央统计局局长阿马利娅·阿迪宁加尔· 维迪亚桑蒂在新闻发布会上对媒体表示，2025年四季度增速超出市场预期，主要得益于年末假期旅游活 动持续活跃、政府财政刺激政策落地见效以及制造业产出稳步扩张，这也印证了当前印尼经济增长是具 备扎实基础的可持续复苏。 从宏观经济稳定性来看， ...

2026年启幕"十五五"新篇，全球经济于大国博弈与技术变革中寻求平衡，中国经济则在韧性增长与结构升 级中迈向高质量发展。外部环境变幻、内需复苏、新质生产力培育及金融"五篇大文章"落地，构成新一年 核心议题。值此，金融界特别推出《启航·预见2026》栏目，聚集百位首席，拆解政策取向、解析产业机 遇、预判市场走势。 本文作者：广开首席产研院院长连平 2025年，在美国"对等关税"实施、贸易环境恶化、外汇市场波动加剧、地缘冲突烈度升级等多重冲击下， 世界经济复苏进程持续承压。展望2026年，全球经济在消除部分不稳定性和不均衡性的同时，又将面临新 的变局，各种"灰犀牛""黑天鹅"风险交织叠加，将对世界经济和中国经济产生重要且深远的影响。 变局一：发达经济体面临滞胀风险 在地缘冲突、贸易保护主义和"对等关税"的影响下，2026年世界经济增长总体放缓。IMF、OECD、联合国 等预测，2026年全球经济增长约2.7%-3.1%，较2025年小幅回落。新兴经济体继续成为生力军。尤其是中 国、印度、越南等亚洲经济体表现更为亮眼，对世界经济的贡献将持续增强。2026年东亚、南亚和非洲经 济增速分别预计为4.4%、5.6%和4. ...

印尼中央统计局局长阿马利娅·阿迪宁加尔·维迪亚桑蒂（Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti）当天在新闻发 布会上表示，尽管外部环境存在挑战，印尼经济总体保持稳定，居民消费改善、投资增长为主要支撑。 数据显示，制造业以19.07%的占比成为经济增长核心动力，制造业、贸易业、农林渔、建筑业、采矿 业等五大行业合计贡献超六成经济增长。 新华财经雅加达2月5日电 印度尼西亚中央统计局5日公布数据，2025年印尼国内生产总值（GDP）同比 增长5.11%，创三年来新高，但略低于政府设定的5.2%目标。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

格隆汇2月5日｜咸亨国际公告，咸宁、万宁、弘宁、德宁、易宁拟于2026年3月10日至2026年6月9日， 通过集中竞价和大宗交易合计减持不超过1228.18万股，占公司总股本3%，其中集中竞价不超过409.39 万股，大宗交易不超过818.79万股。截至公告日，上述5家有限合伙企业合计持股2.31亿股，占 56.53%。 ...

Economic Growth and Recovery - South Africa's economy has shown strong recovery with GDP growth exceeding expectations for four consecutive quarters, improved consumer confidence, and increased capital investment [1] - The unemployment rate is steadily declining, and poverty and inequality have significantly reduced, reflecting the positive impact of collective efforts to rebuild the economy [1] Infrastructure Investment - The Presidential Economic Advisory Council recommends increasing public infrastructure spending and reducing business operating costs to transform recent economic progress into sustainable growth [2] - Key infrastructure sectors such as electricity, logistics, and water are undergoing structural transformation, which is expected to enhance market competition and lower overall economic costs [2][3] Electricity and Logistics Reforms - Reforming the electricity sector is crucial for economic growth, as a competitive electricity market is necessary to lower costs, which is vital for inclusive growth and social development [3] - Enhancing the efficiency of railways, ports, and freight corridors is essential for exports, industrialization, and job creation [3] Government Commitment and Challenges - The South African government has committed to investing over 1 trillion rand in public infrastructure projects over the next three years, signaling strong support for infrastructure investment [3][5] - Despite positive economic indicators, South Africa faces ongoing challenges, including addressing employment pressures, balancing economic rights for black citizens, and combating crime and corruption [5] Global Economic Context - South Africa must continue to drive investment growth and job creation amid global economic uncertainty and rising protectionism, emphasizing the need to strengthen competitiveness and expand market access, particularly in Africa [4] - The recent appreciation of the rand against the dollar indicates resilience in South Africa's trade amidst global trade shifts [5]

分析人士指出，德国经济长期面临能源价格高企、全球需求疲软以及结构性改革推进缓慢等压力和挑 战。2025年，受美国加征关税等外部因素影响，德国对美出口明显承压，导致整体出口连续第三年下 降。尽管政府在基础设施和国防领域的大规模投资今年有望为经济提供一定支撑，但若缺乏配套的结构 性改革，德国经济出现明显回暖仍需时日。（完） 德国经济2023年和2024年连续萎缩，2025年增长0.2%。自2025年5月上任以来，默茨承诺通过大规模公 共支出、加大国防和基础设施投资等措施重振经济。但企业界普遍认为，改革推进速度仍显不足。 德国联邦政府日前发布的年度经济报告预计，2026年德国经济增速为1%，较去年秋季预测值下调0.3个 百分点。这显示，短期内德国经济复苏仍面临压力。 德国总理默茨在社交媒体X上表示，失业人数突破300万是一个警示信号，企业破产情况值得关注。他 指出，德国政府推出了多项经济扶持措施，但效果仍不明显，"经济复苏必须成为今年的核心议题"。 德国联邦劳工局局长安德烈娅·纳勒斯表示，目前德国劳动力市场整体动能不足，年初失业人数上升主 要受季节性因素影响，今年推动工业、贸易等关键领域尽快企稳回升仍是当务之急。 ...

编辑吴怡漪责编黎莉校审宋华 ↓↓↓ 菲律宾外交部1月15日宣布，自2026年1月16日起，中国公民可免签入境菲律宾，停留时间最长为14天。该政策仅适用于经马尼拉和宿务机场入境的游客， 且14天的停留期限不可延长。 菲律宾外交部表示："这项措施符合总统关于促进贸易、投资和旅游，以及加强两国人文交流的要求。" ...

Group 1 - The national business conference held on January 10-11 outlined eight key tasks for the national business system by 2026, focusing on consumption, market systems, trade innovation, foreign investment, international trade rules, foreign investment management, bilateral trade cooperation, and security in openness [1] - The conference emphasized the implementation of a special action to boost consumption, aiming to create the "Buy in China" brand, enhance service consumption, and optimize policies for upgrading consumer goods [1] - The goal is to develop a modern market and circulation system, promoting a unified national market and advancing the integration of domestic and foreign trade [1] Group 2 - Trade innovation will be promoted through the "Export China" brand, with a focus on optimizing goods trade, developing service trade, and encouraging digital and green trade [2] - The strategy includes enhancing foreign investment attractiveness by expanding service sector openness and improving investment promotion and service systems [2] - Effective foreign investment management will involve guiding cross-border supply chain layouts and enhancing overseas service systems, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [2] Group 3 - The conference aims to deepen multilateral and bilateral economic cooperation, implement global initiatives, and reform global economic governance [2] - There is a focus on risk prevention and establishing a robust security network for openness, including improving legal frameworks and trade risk management [2]

Group 1 - The national business conference outlined eight key tasks for the business system by 2026, focusing on enhancing consumption, modern market systems, trade innovation, foreign investment, international trade rules, foreign investment management, bilateral cooperation, and security in openness [1] - The conference emphasized the implementation of a consumption boost initiative, aiming to create the "Buy in China" brand, enhance service consumption, and optimize policies for upgrading consumer goods [1] - The development of a modern market and circulation system is prioritized, with efforts to promote a unified national market and innovate in the retail sector [1] Group 2 - Trade innovation will be promoted through the "Export China" brand, with a focus on optimizing goods trade, developing service trade, and encouraging digital and green trade [2] - The conference aims to enhance foreign investment attractiveness by promoting the "Invest in China" brand and improving the foreign investment service guarantee system [2] - Effective foreign investment management will be implemented to guide cross-border supply chain layouts and enhance overseas service systems, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [2]