日本大型制造业信心指数攀升至四年高点，进一步强化了市场对日本央行本周加息的预期。 日本央行周一发布的季度短观(Tankan)调查报告显示，12月大型制造业景气指数从9月的14升至15，与 经济学家的预期中值一致。大型非制造业景气指数维持在34，接近1990年代初以来的最高水平。该指数 为正值表明认为经营状况"良好"的企业数量多于"欠佳"的企业。 作为日本央行最受关注的数据之一，短观调查表明日本企业迄今未受美国关税政策的显著冲击——这正 是央行数月来持续强调的不确定性来源。此次调查结果增强了行长植田和男领导的政策委员会在周五加 息的理由，若实施将是今年1月以来的首次加息。 数据显示，石油和煤炭产品制造商的信心有所改善，为央行提供了观察企业如何应对9月中旬美国降关 税政策的早期窗口。约有70%的企业在此次关税调整前已提交了上一轮调查回复。 持续疲软的日元继续利好出口企业，但同时推高了服务业企业的运营成本——该行业吸纳了日本大部分 劳动力。根据周五数据，企业预计本财年日元兑美元汇率为147.06，较9月预测的145.68进一步走弱。 植田行长曾多次强调，美国关税政策的不确定性及薪资谈判的初步进展，将是当局考虑下一次 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 澳洲国民银行的调查显示，11月企业现况指数下降3个点至+7，脱离2024年3月以来高位。 新华财经北京12月9日电周二的一项调查显示，一项衡量澳大利亚企业现况的指标11月回落，因销售和 利润在连续几个月取得强劲表现后出现放缓，同时许多企业仍报告闲置产能有限。 澳洲联储将于周二召开今年最后一次政策会议，外界认为其肯定会将利率维持在3.60%，并可能对进一 步宽松释出谨慎信号。 该调查中企业信心指数下滑5点至+1。这一结果可能表明，消费者需求在10月录得强劲表现后有所降 温，不过缺乏闲置产能与近期通胀高企情况一致。 ...

Group 1 - The Czech composite economic confidence index increased by 2.1 points in October, reaching 104.0 [1] - The business confidence index rose by 1.8 points to 103.4 [1] - The consumer confidence index saw a significant increase of 3.9 points, reaching 107.4 [1] Group 2 - The industrial sector's economic confidence index rose by 4.3 points [1] - Some areas of the service sector experienced a slight increase of 0.6 points [1] - The economic confidence indices for trade and construction sectors decreased by 4.0 and 3.6 points, respectively [1]

Core Insights - Eurozone business activity unexpectedly accelerated in October, with the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to its highest level since May 2024, indicating stronger economic momentum than market expectations [1][4]. Group 1: PMI Data - The October composite PMI for the Eurozone was reported at 52.2, up from 51.2 in September and significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of 51, marking the tenth consecutive month above the neutral level [1][4]. - The increase in PMI was primarily driven by the services sector, particularly strong performance in Germany, which offset ongoing weakness in France [1][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The services PMI in the Eurozone rose from 51.3 in September to 52.6 in October, reaching a 14-month high, while manufacturing showed only a slight improvement, with manufacturing output growth at 51.1, up from 50.0 in September [5][8]. - The overall manufacturing PMI increased from 49.8 in September to 50 in October, indicating a recovery from contraction to the neutral level [5][8]. Group 3: Employment Trends - Employment conditions showed a positive shift, with job growth resuming in October after a slight decline in September, and the pace of job creation in the services sector reached its fastest rate since June 2024 [8]. - However, manufacturing firms faced pressures to cut jobs at the fastest rate in four months due to weak demand [8]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Despite the positive PMI data, business confidence fell to a five-month low, reflecting cautious sentiment regarding future prospects [8]. - The Eurozone's economic growth remains significantly behind that of the U.S., with challenges stemming from France's fiscal and political uncertainties and structural pressures in the manufacturing sector [8]. Group 5: Central Bank Policy - Market consensus suggests that the resilience of the Eurozone economy and moderate inflation pressures in the services sector will lead the European Central Bank to maintain its current interest rate policy [8]. - The inflation rate in the services sector remains moderate, with a slight increase in sales price inflation, but still close to long-term averages, which may support the ECB's stance against further rate cuts [8].

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade achieved a record high in the first three quarters of 2025, with total imports and exports reaching 33.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [1][18]. Trade Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's exports amounted to 19.95 trillion yuan, increasing by 7.1%, marking eight consecutive quarters of growth, while imports totaled 13.66 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.2% [18]. - Trade with ASEAN reached 5.57 trillion yuan, up 9.6%, accounting for 16.6% of China's total foreign trade, maintaining ASEAN's position as China's largest trading partner [3][24]. Global Trade Position - As of the first seven months of 2025, China's share of global goods trade stood at 11.8%, reinforcing its status as the world's largest goods trading nation [4][11]. Trade Resilience - Despite facing a challenging external environment, China's goods trade demonstrated strong resilience, characterized by stable trade performance, new growth drivers, and proactive foreign trade entities [7][9]. - The number of foreign trade entities with import and export performance reached 700,000, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [27]. Export Structure and Growth - The export structure is continuously optimizing, with industrial robot exports increasing by 54.9% and wind power equipment exports growing by 23.9% in the first three quarters [11][25]. - Processing trade reached 6.18 trillion yuan, up 6.9%, representing 18.4% of total foreign trade, and is moving towards higher value-added segments [25]. Business Confidence - Recent surveys indicate that the export enterprise confidence index has risen for five consecutive months, while the import enterprise confidence index has increased for three months [13][27]. - Private enterprises accounted for 19.16 trillion yuan in imports and exports, growing by 7.8%, and have shown continuous growth for 22 consecutive quarters, solidifying their role as the backbone of foreign trade [21].

Core Insights - The Brazilian business confidence index (ICE) rose by 0.5 points to 89.9 in September, ending a three-month decline trend [1] - Despite the increase, the index does not indicate a definitive end to the downward trend observed since June [1] Summary by Sections Business Confidence - The rise in business confidence in September is viewed as a positive signal, but it is not sufficient to conclude that the downward trend has been reversed [1] - The current situation index increased by 1.1 points to 93.8, while the expectations index fell by 0.3 points to 85.9, marking the lowest level since June 2020 [1] Sector Analysis - In September, 63% of surveyed businesses reported an increase in confidence, up from August, with improvements noted across all surveyed sectors [1] Economic Context - The data collection for this survey occurred from September 1 to 24, and analysts suggest that despite the slight recovery in business confidence, companies remain cautious about future economic prospects due to high interest rates and ongoing fiscal and external pressures [1]

Core Insights - The Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) reported that the business confidence index in Italy remained stable as of August 2025 [1] Industry Analysis - Business confidence in Italy showed a divergent trend across sectors: confidence in manufacturing, construction, and retail sectors declined, while the confidence in the market services sector significantly improved [1] - The decline in confidence in certain sectors was attributed to negative factors such as poor production or business expectations, inventory accumulation, and unfavorable order trends [1] - The recovery in market services confidence was primarily driven by positive developments in the transportation and warehousing, as well as information and communication industries [1]

Group 1 - The confidence index for large manufacturers in Japan has reached its highest level since December 2024 [1] - Conversely, the confidence index for large non-manufacturing enterprises in Japan has hit its lowest level since December 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in international perceptions towards China, with many businesses expressing confidence in expanding trade relationships with China and other regions despite global trade uncertainties [1][4][7] - A recent HSBC survey indicates that 74% of Hong Kong enterprises remain optimistic about international trade over the next two years, with a focus on deepening ties with mainland China, South Asia, and Europe [4][9] - The Morning Consult data shows that as of the end of May, China's net support rate stands at 8.8, while the U.S. is at -1.5, indicating a growing favorable perception of China compared to the declining reputation of the U.S. [2][7][8] Group 2 - 76% of Hong Kong businesses are adjusting pricing strategies to cope with rising costs and market changes, while 73% are exploring new markets less affected by trade disruptions [4][5] - In mainland China, 90% of enterprises are confident about continuing international trade, with 84% believing that trade uncertainties are driving them to innovate and seek new opportunities [4][9] - The CEO confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to 34 points, the lowest since the survey began in 1976, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the economic future among U.S. business leaders [2][9]