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中国外贸抗冲击能力有多强?4 月数据里的三大破局密码
贝塔投资智库· 2025-05-12 03:58
Core Viewpoint - Despite the impact of high tariffs from the U.S., China's foreign trade has shown resilience, with exports growing by 8.1% in April 2025, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.0% [1] Group 1: Market Diversification - The contraction of the U.S. market has been quickly offset by the expansion of emerging markets, with exports to ASEAN countries surging by 21.1% in April, while exports to the U.S. fell by 20.9% [2] - ASEAN's share in China's exports has increased to 19.1%, nearly double that of the U.S. market at 10.5% [2] - The 90-day tariff exemption period from the U.S. has encouraged Chinese companies to expedite re-exports through ASEAN, partially mitigating direct tariff impacts [2] Group 2: Product Upgrading - High-value products have become the backbone of exports, with integrated circuit exports rising by 21.3%, LCD panel exports by 16.2%, and ship exports by 35.6% [3] - Mechanical and high-tech product exports grew by 10.1% and 6.5%, respectively, contributing nearly 70% to overall export growth, highlighting China's irreplaceability in the global supply chain [3] - The automotive sector has shown a rebound, with complete vehicle exports increasing by 4.3% and auto parts exports maintaining a growth rate of 6.9% [3] Group 3: Flexible Trade Models - Processing trade imports surged by 13.1%, indicating capacity expansion among export-oriented enterprises, which serves as a leading indicator for future exports [4] - The import of bulk commodities like crude oil and iron ore increased by 7.5% and 1.3%, respectively, despite a slight decline in import value due to falling prices, suggesting resilience in domestic industrial demand [4] - Imports from the U.S. fell by 13.9% in April, primarily due to bilateral tariff negotiations, while imports from non-U.S. markets like ASEAN remained stable, demonstrating China's self-adjustment capabilities [5] Group 4: Institutional Outlook - Short-term strategies focus on leveraging markets in ASEAN, the Middle East, and Latin America to quickly fill gaps left by the U.S. market, utilizing tariff exemption policies for high-tech products [6] - Long-term strategies emphasize boosting domestic demand and industrial upgrades, with recommendations for fiscal policies to enhance consumption and employment, and increased investment in technological innovation [6] - The resilience of foreign trade is characterized by a combination of market network resilience, industrial upgrade resilience, and policy adjustment resilience [6][7]