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水井坊(600779)2025年中报点评:深度调整 业绩短期承压
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-31 10:28
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with challenges in high-end liquor sales and a decrease in average product prices impacting overall performance [1][3]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.498 billion yuan, down 12.84%, and a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 56.52% [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 539 million yuan, down 31.37%, with a net loss of 85 million yuan, marking a decline of 251.25% [1]. Product Performance - High-end liquor sales faced pressure in Q2, with H1 revenue for high-end and mid-range products at 1.305 billion yuan and 87 million yuan, down 14.00% and 10.37% respectively [1]. - In Q2, revenue for high-end and mid-range products was 454 million yuan and 38 million yuan, down 36.95% and up 67.73% respectively [1]. - The average price of liquor decreased, with H1 sales volume at 4,277.22 thousand liters, up 14.53%, leading to an average price of 162.67 yuan per 500ml, down 24.72% [1]. - In Q2, sales volume increased by 8.56%, but the average price dropped to 142.43 yuan per 500ml, down 38.98% [1]. Channel Performance - New channel revenue saw significant growth, with H1 income from new channels and wholesale agents at 468 million yuan and 924 million yuan, up 126.12% and down 34.35% respectively [2]. - In Q2, revenue from new channels and wholesale agents increased by 70.82% and decreased by 51.21% respectively [2]. - International revenue showed positive growth, with H1 domestic and international income at 1.368 billion yuan and 24 million yuan, down 13.74% and 16.25% respectively [2]. - In Q2, domestic revenue decreased by 35.18%, while international revenue increased by 24.66% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin for H1 was 79.26%, down 1.71 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in Q2 gross margin to 74.42%, down 7.13 percentage points [3]. - H1 net profit margin was 7.04%, down 7.07 percentage points, influenced by declining gross margins and increasing expense ratios [3]. - In Q2, the net profit margin was -15.75%, down 22.90 percentage points, affected by a 7.13 percentage point drop in gross margin and increases in sales and management expense ratios [3]. Investment Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 1 billion yuan, 1.073 billion yuan, and 1.15 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting year-on-year changes of -25.45%, 7.31%, and 7.23% respectively [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for August 28 are projected to be 23, 21, and 20, with a market capitalization of 22.7 billion yuan [4].