腾讯财经 . 腾讯新闻旗下腾讯财经官方账号，在这里读懂财经！ 以下文章来源于腾讯财经 ，作者胡保森 导语：面对白酒行业深度调整期，口子窖降速明显，不仅失守"徽酒老二"的位置，其"打造百亿口子"的战略目标与"全国化蓝图"也遭遇到前所未有的挑 战。 兼香型白酒龙头、徽酒"四朵金花"之一的 口子窖 （ 603589.SH ） 8 月 19 日发布了 2025 年半年度报告，交出了一份令市场哗然的成绩单： 2025 年上半年，口子窖实现营收 25.31 亿元，同比下滑 20.07% ；归母净利润 7.15 亿元，同比下降 24.63% ；扣非后净利润 6.98 亿元，同 比下降 24.90% 。 | 主要会计数据 | 本报告期 (1-6月) | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上 年同期增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | | 营业收入 | 2.530.980.655.68 | 3, 166, 345, 142. 89 | -20. 07 | | 利润总额 | 946, 527, 325. 69 | 1, 279, 107, 663. 17 | -26.00 | | 归属于 ...

每经记者｜刘明涛 每经编辑｜肖芮冬 在酒鬼酒的强势带动下，本周白酒板块出现明显反弹，Wind白酒指数周涨幅高达6.28%，创下年内最大周涨幅。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 周涨幅 （%） | 周市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000799.SZ | 酒鬼酒 | 25.104 | | | 002568.SZ | 直润股份 | 13.261 | | | 600696.SH | *ST岩石 | 12.941 | | | 600702.SH | 舍得酒业 | 12.755 | | | 000596.SZ | 古井贡酒 | 11.599 | | | 601579.SH | 会稽山 | 11.117 | | | 6979.HK | 珍酒李渡 | 10.414 | | 华泰证券分析指出，当前白酒基本面环比企稳，预计8月以来白酒动销端表现环比降幅收窄，尤其升学宴、亲朋聚饮等大众宴席场景修复较快，300元以下大 众价位白酒产品有所修复。政商务消费仍然有所承压，但预计未来随政策限制边际收窄，将稳步恢复。 同时，由于前期需求快速下滑，部分渠道和终端经销商回款和出货更为谨慎。整体看，当前行业基本 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kouzi Jiao's performance in the first half of 2025 shows significant declines in both revenue and net profit, primarily due to reduced sales of high-end liquor, reflecting broader challenges in the liquor industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kouzi Jiao achieved operating revenue of approximately 2.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.07% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 715 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year [1]. - High-end liquor sales revenue was around 2.385 billion yuan, experiencing a decline of 19.80% compared to the previous year [1]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is facing intensified market differentiation and channel changes, with continuous production declines and slowing sales growth [1]. - Factors such as sluggish consumer demand, poor sales dynamics, and high inventory levels have become common challenges within the industry [1]. - The competitive landscape is increasingly fierce, with numerous liquor producers in the Huaihe River basin and notable competition from brands in Guizhou, Sichuan, and Shanxi [1]. Strategic Response - In response to the challenging industry environment, Kouzi Jiao is maintaining strategic focus on three upgrades: market upgrade, structural upgrade, and brand upgrade [2]. - The company is pragmatically adjusting its tactical approach in line with market rhythms [2].

2025Q2 收入及净利润下降幅度较大，充分反映需求压力。2025H1 公司实现营业 总收入25.31 亿元/同比-20.1%，归母净利润7.15 亿元/同比-24.6%。其中2025Q2 营业总收入 7.21 亿元/同比-48.5%，归母净利润 1.05 亿元/同比-70.9%。单二季 度受到白酒场景及需求减少影响，收入及利润下降幅度较大。 2025Q2 产品结构有所承压，省内消费场景受损幅度更大。分产品看，2025Q2 高 档白酒收入 6.57 亿元/同比-49.6%，中档白酒收入 0.12 亿元/同比-7.7%，低档 白酒收入 0.29 亿元/同比+7.5%，高档酒收入下滑较多主因政策影响下消费场景 缺失、动销受阻。我们预计 100-200 元的大众宴席、100 元及以下的自饮场景表 现相对较好，兼 8/口子 5 年/口子 6 年/小池窖仍有少量需求；兼 10/口子 10 年 及以上产品收入下滑幅度更大。2025Q2 直销渠道收入同比+75.5%，其中三大核 心电商渠道业务增长较快。分区域看，2025Q2 安徽省内收入 5.15 亿元/同比 -54.0%，省外收入 1.83 亿元/同比-18.6%。省内 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's H1 2025 performance shows significant pressure, with revenue and net profit declining by 20.1% and 24.6% year-on-year, respectively. The Q2 results reflect a substantial impact from the "ban on alcohol" policy in Anhui, leading to a near halving of demand [1][6]. - The company has chosen to limit shipments to accurately reflect market conditions and maintain healthy channel relationships. There is an expectation for demand recovery in Q3, contingent on the implementation of policies [1][6]. - Due to external demand pressures, the earnings forecast has been revised downwards, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.7, 1.8, and 1.9 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a 20x PE for 2025 [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - For H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.1% and 24.6% respectively [1][6]. - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was 721 million yuan, down 48.5% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 70.9% [6][7]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 20.9 billion yuan, with a current share price of 35.01 yuan and a PB ratio of 2.0 for 2025 [3][14]. Performance Analysis - The report indicates a significant decline in high-end liquor sales, with Q2 2025 revenue from high-end liquor at 660 million yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year. Mid-range and low-end liquor saw smaller declines of 7.7% and 7.5%, respectively [6][7]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 73.1%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, with high-end liquor gross margin at 75.0% [6][7]. - The company has reduced promotional and advertising expenditures, leading to a decline in sales and management expense ratios [6][7].

安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 2025 年半年度经营数据公告 证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2025-024 单位：万元币种：人民币 产品名称 2025 年 1－6 月 销售收入 2024 年 1－6 月 销售收入 增减变动幅度（%） 高档白酒 238,467.45 297,332.99 -19.80 中档白酒 3,228.95 3,620.51 -10.82 低档白酒 6,809.45 6,990.46 -2.59 合计 248,505.85 307,943.96 -19.30 3、按区域分类情况： 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 1、按产品档次分类情况： 注：上述表格合计数差异系四舍五入尾差所致。 2、按销售渠道分类情况： 单位：万元币种：人民币 | 渠道类型 | 2025 年 1－6 月 | 2024 年 1－6 月 | 增减变动幅度（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售收入 | 销售收入 | | | 直销（含团购） | 13,267.18 | 9, ...

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Kuozi Jiao, Liu Ansheng, plans to reduce his stake in the company due to personal financial needs, which may not significantly impact the secondary market due to the nature of the transaction [1][4]. Shareholder Reduction - Liu Ansheng intends to sell up to 10 million shares, representing 1.67% of the total share capital, through block trading within three months after the announcement [1]. - As of the announcement date, Liu Ansheng holds approximately 63.47 million shares, accounting for 10.58% of the company, and is part of a group of shareholders that collectively owns 42.01% of Kuozi Jiao [4]. Market Impact - The block trading method used for the reduction is expected to minimize market impact, as such transactions are conducted outside the regular trading system [4]. - The potential buyer is likely to be an institutional investor, which further reduces the likelihood of significant price fluctuations in the secondary market [4]. Company Performance - Kuozi Jiao's stock price has decreased by 14.48% year-to-date as of July 21, with an average price of 35.9 yuan per share [1]. - In Q1, Kuozi Jiao reported revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, up 3.6% from the previous year [10]. - The company has faced challenges in sales, particularly in the mid to low-end product segments, which saw declines of 12.5% and 9% respectively [11]. Sales Dynamics - The company has experienced a slowdown in sales due to recent regulations affecting alcohol consumption, particularly impacting mid to high-end products [9]. - As of March, Kuozi Jiao had 1,032 distributors, with sales revenue from the Anhui province reaching 1.586 billion yuan, while sales from outside the province dropped by 19.84% [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the enforcement of the Central Eight Regulations in Hainan Province, detailing six typical cases of violations by local officials, emphasizing the need for strict adherence to anti-corruption measures and the importance of maintaining political integrity [12]. Summary by Sections - **Case of Lin Jinmei**: Former Deputy County Head of Baisha County, Lin Jinmei, received high-end liquor from contractors multiple times between 2020 and 2024, leading to her expulsion from the party and public office in February 2025, with criminal charges filed [2][3]. - **Case of Fu Yong**: Former District Party Secretary of Haikou, Fu Yong, accepted luxury gifts and private dinners from business owners from 2018 to 2025, resulting in his expulsion from the party and public office in June 2025, with criminal charges filed [4][5]. - **Case of Huang Jundong**: Former Vice Chairman of Qiongzhong County Political Consultative Conference, Huang Jundong, received high-end gifts and hosted dinners funded by contractors from 2013 to 2021, leading to his expulsion from the party and public office in May 2025, with criminal charges filed [6][8]. - **Case of Lu Gang**: Former Senior Researcher at the Hainan Provincial Department of Education, Lu Gang, received various gifts and hosted dinners funded by contractors from 2020 to 2024, resulting in his expulsion from the party and public office in April 2025, with criminal charges filed [7][8]. - **Case of Li Xue**: Former Director of Hainan Hongling Irrigation District Management Center, Li Xue, received gifts and hosted dinners funded by contractors from 2009 to 2024, leading to his expulsion from the party and public office in March 2025, with criminal charges filed [9][10]. - **Case of Lin Chiyou**: Former Deputy General Manager of Wuzhishan City Property Service Co., Lin Chiyou, received high-end liquor and hosted dinners from 2021 to 2023, resulting in his expulsion from the party and demotion in April 2025 [11][12]. - **Overall Implications**: The article stresses that these cases reflect a lack of political awareness and legal consciousness among some officials, highlighting the need for continuous education on the Central Eight Regulations and the importance of maintaining integrity to prevent corruption [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.655 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.83% year-on-year [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.42%, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 3.59% [6] - The company plans to focus on "market upgrade, structural upgrade, and brand upgrade" as its strategic goals for 2025 [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 6.015 billion yuan, with a forecasted net profit of 1.637 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.73 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 [5] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 74.4%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.5% [5] Business Performance - The company's white liquor business generated a revenue of 5.88 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.46%, and a sales volume increase of 2.76% [6] - In Q1 2025, the revenue from high-end liquor was 1.73 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.53% [7] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 27.5%, a decrease of 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in gross margin and an increase in sales expense ratio [6][7] Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.46 billion yuan, a significant increase of 60.2% year-on-year [7] - In Q1 2025, the operating cash flow was -246 million yuan, compared to -104 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to the timing of dealer payments [7]

Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses were 2.203 billion, 286 million, and 278 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 1.27%, 15.91%, and 16.48% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses were 796 million, 144 million, and 144 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 4.32%, 9.29%, and 9.76% [1] Dividend and Revenue Goals - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 54.40%, up from 53.24% in 2023 [2] - The revenue target for 2025 is set at 2.3 billion yuan [2] Product and Market Performance - In 2024, the revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products was 1.529 billion, 506 million, and 134 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.27%, -8.17%, and -20.53% [2] - The proportion of mid-range and low-end products is decreasing, indicating a trend towards structural upgrading [2] - In Q1 2025, the revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products was 620 million, 134 million, and 34 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +8.77%, -30.75%, and -40.94% [3] - The high-end product proportion reached 78.67% in Q1 2025, continuing to increase [3] Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue from domestic and external markets was 695 million and 93 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +3.49% and -37.86% [3] - The domestic market remains stable, while the external market is experiencing a temporary decline [3] Channel Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from direct sales, online sales, and wholesale agents was 197 million, 43 million, and 548 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +69.89%, +0.65%, and -17.27% [3] - The number of distributors decreased by 14 to 57 by the end of 2024, while the average distributor scale increased by 3.05% [3] Profitability Metrics - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin and net profit margin decreased by 3.12 and 1.27 percentage points to 48.77% and 18.04% respectively, attributed to increased discounts during the Spring Festival [4] - The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and financial expense ratio changed by -1.42, +0.31, and +0.45 percentage points to 5.21%, 3.34%, and 0.59% respectively [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to gradually improve its operating conditions following the implementation of a new marketing strategy, with a focus on stabilizing the domestic market [4] - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 314 million and 348 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 10% and 11% [4]