2025Q2 收入及净利润下降幅度较大，充分反映需求压力。2025H1 公司实现营业 总收入25.31 亿元/同比-20.1%，归母净利润7.15 亿元/同比-24.6%。其中2025Q2 营业总收入 7.21 亿元/同比-48.5%，归母净利润 1.05 亿元/同比-70.9%。单二季 度受到白酒场景及需求减少影响，收入及利润下降幅度较大。 2025Q2 产品结构有所承压，省内消费场景受损幅度更大。分产品看，2025Q2 高 档白酒收入 6.57 亿元/同比-49.6%，中档白酒收入 0.12 亿元/同比-7.7%，低档 白酒收入 0.29 亿元/同比+7.5%，高档酒收入下滑较多主因政策影响下消费场景 缺失、动销受阻。我们预计 100-200 元的大众宴席、100 元及以下的自饮场景表 现相对较好，兼 8/口子 5 年/口子 6 年/小池窖仍有少量需求；兼 10/口子 10 年 及以上产品收入下滑幅度更大。2025Q2 直销渠道收入同比+75.5%，其中三大核 心电商渠道业务增长较快。分区域看，2025Q2 安徽省内收入 5.15 亿元/同比 -54.0%，省外收入 1.83 亿元/同比-18.6%。省内 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's H1 2025 performance shows significant pressure, with revenue and net profit declining by 20.1% and 24.6% year-on-year, respectively. The Q2 results reflect a substantial impact from the "ban on alcohol" policy in Anhui, leading to a near halving of demand [1][6]. - The company has chosen to limit shipments to accurately reflect market conditions and maintain healthy channel relationships. There is an expectation for demand recovery in Q3, contingent on the implementation of policies [1][6]. - Due to external demand pressures, the earnings forecast has been revised downwards, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.7, 1.8, and 1.9 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a 20x PE for 2025 [1][6]. Financial Data and Valuation - For H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.1% and 24.6% respectively [1][6]. - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was 721 million yuan, down 48.5% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 70.9% [6][7]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 20.9 billion yuan, with a current share price of 35.01 yuan and a PB ratio of 2.0 for 2025 [3][14]. Performance Analysis - The report indicates a significant decline in high-end liquor sales, with Q2 2025 revenue from high-end liquor at 660 million yuan, down 49.6% year-on-year. Mid-range and low-end liquor saw smaller declines of 7.7% and 7.5%, respectively [6][7]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 73.1%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, with high-end liquor gross margin at 75.0% [6][7]. - The company has reduced promotional and advertising expenditures, leading to a decline in sales and management expense ratios [6][7].

安徽口子酒业股份有限公司 2025 年半年度经营数据公告 证券代码：603589 证券简称：口子窖 公告编号：2025-024 单位：万元币种：人民币 产品名称 2025 年 1－6 月 销售收入 2024 年 1－6 月 销售收入 增减变动幅度（%） 高档白酒 238,467.45 297,332.99 -19.80 中档白酒 3,228.95 3,620.51 -10.82 低档白酒 6,809.45 6,990.46 -2.59 合计 248,505.85 307,943.96 -19.30 3、按区域分类情况： 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 1、按产品档次分类情况： 注：上述表格合计数差异系四舍五入尾差所致。 2、按销售渠道分类情况： 单位：万元币种：人民币 | 渠道类型 | 2025 年 1－6 月 | 2024 年 1－6 月 | 增减变动幅度（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售收入 | 销售收入 | | | 直销（含团购） | 13,267.18 | 9, ...

Core Viewpoint - The controlling shareholder of Kuozi Jiao, Liu Ansheng, plans to reduce his stake in the company due to personal financial needs, which may not significantly impact the secondary market due to the nature of the transaction [1][4]. Shareholder Reduction - Liu Ansheng intends to sell up to 10 million shares, representing 1.67% of the total share capital, through block trading within three months after the announcement [1]. - As of the announcement date, Liu Ansheng holds approximately 63.47 million shares, accounting for 10.58% of the company, and is part of a group of shareholders that collectively owns 42.01% of Kuozi Jiao [4]. Market Impact - The block trading method used for the reduction is expected to minimize market impact, as such transactions are conducted outside the regular trading system [4]. - The potential buyer is likely to be an institutional investor, which further reduces the likelihood of significant price fluctuations in the secondary market [4]. Company Performance - Kuozi Jiao's stock price has decreased by 14.48% year-to-date as of July 21, with an average price of 35.9 yuan per share [1]. - In Q1, Kuozi Jiao reported revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, up 3.6% from the previous year [10]. - The company has faced challenges in sales, particularly in the mid to low-end product segments, which saw declines of 12.5% and 9% respectively [11]. Sales Dynamics - The company has experienced a slowdown in sales due to recent regulations affecting alcohol consumption, particularly impacting mid to high-end products [9]. - As of March, Kuozi Jiao had 1,032 distributors, with sales revenue from the Anhui province reaching 1.586 billion yuan, while sales from outside the province dropped by 19.84% [13].

Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses were 2.203 billion, 286 million, and 278 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 1.27%, 15.91%, and 16.48% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses were 796 million, 144 million, and 144 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 4.32%, 9.29%, and 9.76% [1] Dividend and Revenue Goals - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 54.40%, up from 53.24% in 2023 [2] - The revenue target for 2025 is set at 2.3 billion yuan [2] Product and Market Performance - In 2024, the revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products was 1.529 billion, 506 million, and 134 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.27%, -8.17%, and -20.53% [2] - The proportion of mid-range and low-end products is decreasing, indicating a trend towards structural upgrading [2] - In Q1 2025, the revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end products was 620 million, 134 million, and 34 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +8.77%, -30.75%, and -40.94% [3] - The high-end product proportion reached 78.67% in Q1 2025, continuing to increase [3] Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue from domestic and external markets was 695 million and 93 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +3.49% and -37.86% [3] - The domestic market remains stable, while the external market is experiencing a temporary decline [3] Channel Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from direct sales, online sales, and wholesale agents was 197 million, 43 million, and 548 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +69.89%, +0.65%, and -17.27% [3] - The number of distributors decreased by 14 to 57 by the end of 2024, while the average distributor scale increased by 3.05% [3] Profitability Metrics - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin and net profit margin decreased by 3.12 and 1.27 percentage points to 48.77% and 18.04% respectively, attributed to increased discounts during the Spring Festival [4] - The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and financial expense ratio changed by -1.42, +0.31, and +0.45 percentage points to 5.21%, 3.34%, and 0.59% respectively [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to gradually improve its operating conditions following the implementation of a new marketing strategy, with a focus on stabilizing the domestic market [4] - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to 314 million and 348 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 10% and 11% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Kuozi Jiao (SH603589) reported a slight increase in revenue for 2024, but a decline in net profit compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Kuozi Jiao achieved operating revenue of 6.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.89% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.655 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 3.83% year-on-year [1][2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.610 billion yuan, down 5.15% from the previous year [2]. Product Segment Analysis - High-end liquor revenue reached 5.681 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.06%, with a gross margin of 75.65%, down 0.22 percentage points [2][3]. - Mid-range liquor revenue was 68.41 million yuan, a decrease of 10.35%, with a gross margin of 37.29%, down 7.09 percentage points [2][3]. - Low-end liquor revenue increased by 33.01% to 126 million yuan, with a gross margin of 35.24%, down 7.61 percentage points [2][3]. Capacity and Investment - Kuozi Jiao's designed capacity for 2024 was 80,000 kiloliters, with actual capacity at 39,528.58 kiloliters, indicating a utilization rate of less than 50% [3][4]. - The company is investing in a project to relocate and enhance production capacity, with a planned investment of 1.36 billion yuan, and has invested 92.84 million yuan during the reporting period, totaling 999.46 million yuan to date [5]. Leadership and Compensation - Xu Jin, aged 60, serves as the chairman and has held various leadership roles since 1997 [5]. - Xu Jin's compensation decreased to 2.644 million yuan in 2024, down 1 million yuan from the previous year [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with main products maintaining positive growth, leading to the "Outperform" rating being upheld [4] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [4] - The company is expected to maintain its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, with projected net profits of 1.67 billion yuan, 1.74 billion yuan, and 1.81 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 4.0%, and 4.1% respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, and a net profit of 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [4] - The company's high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor segments achieved revenues of 5.68 billion yuan, 68 million yuan, and 126 million yuan in 2024, with year-on-year changes of +0.06%, -10.35%, and +33.01% respectively [5] Cash Flow and Profitability - The company demonstrated good cash flow performance, with sales cash receipts of 6.45 billion yuan in 2024 and 1.20 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting year-on-year changes of +11.3% and -14.8% respectively [6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 74.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 27.5%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [7] - In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 76.2%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 33.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [7] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 35.61 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 21.37 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 21.30 billion yuan [1] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.78 yuan, 2.89 yuan, and 3.01 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.6, 12.1, and 11.6 [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - Kuozi Jiao's 2024 financial report fell short of expectations, with total revenue of 6.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.89%, and a net profit of 1.655 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.83% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company had previously projected a revenue of 7.035 billion yuan for 2024, indicating a significant gap between expectations and actual performance [1] - The high-end product revenue remained stable at 5.681 billion yuan, while the mid-range product revenue declined by 10.35% to 68.41 million yuan, and low-end product revenue increased by 33.01% to 126 million yuan [2][3] Cost and Margin Insights - The gross margin for high-end products decreased by 0.22 percentage points, while mid-range and low-end products saw declines of 7.09 and 7.61 percentage points, respectively [2] - The overall gross margin for Kuozi Jiao dropped to 74.33%, reflecting a decrease of 0.59 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] Regional Performance - In Anhui province, revenue grew by 1.10% to 4.956 billion yuan, while costs increased by 1.23%, leading to a slight decrease in gross margin [3] - Outside Anhui, revenue fell by 2.88% to 920 million yuan, with costs rising by 9.90%, resulting in a more significant gross margin decline of 3.73 percentage points [3] Management and Strategic Spending - Kuozi Jiao's management expenses rose to approximately 140 million yuan, with consulting service fees reaching 30.0746 million yuan, indicating a focus on long-term strategic development despite current financial pressures [3][5] - The company has spent a total of 81 million yuan on consulting services over the past three years, which raises questions about the effectiveness of such expenditures [3] Competitive Landscape - Kuozi Jiao faces intense competition in the Anhui liquor market, with rivals like Gujing Gongjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu outperforming it in both revenue and growth rates [6] - In 2024, Gujing Gongjiu achieved revenue of 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%, while Yingjia Gongjiu reported 7.344 billion yuan, an 8.46% increase [6] Future Outlook - Kuozi Jiao aimed for an 18% revenue growth in 2024 but has not met this target, and the gap with leading competitors has widened [7] - The company has not specified its operational goals for 2025 in its annual report, indicating uncertainty in its future direction [7]

Core Viewpoint - Kuozi Jiao's revenue growth is minimal while net profit declines, indicating challenges in the white liquor industry amid economic pressures and increased competition [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Kuozi Jiao achieved revenue of 6.015 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.89%, marking the first time it exceeded 6 billion yuan [1][2] - The net profit for 2024 was 1.655 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.83% compared to the previous year [1][2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 74.59%, down 0.6 percentage points from 75.19% in the previous year [4] Product Segmentation - High-end liquor revenue reached 5.684 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.06% and a gross margin of 75.65%, down 0.22 percentage points [4] - Mid-range liquor revenue was 68.41 million yuan, a decrease of 10.35%, with a gross margin of 37.29%, down 7.09 percentage points [4] - Low-end liquor revenue increased by 35.24% to 126 million yuan, with a gross margin of 35.24%, down 7.61 percentage points [4] Regional Performance - Revenue from Anhui province was 4.956 billion yuan, up 1.1%, while revenue from outside Anhui decreased by 2.88% to 920 million yuan [4] Capacity and Investment - Kuozi Jiao's designed capacity was 80,000 kiloliters, with actual capacity at 39,528.58 kiloliters, resulting in a utilization rate of less than 50% [4] - The company is investing 1.36 billion yuan in a project to enhance production quality, with 928.45 million yuan invested in the reporting period [4] Sales and Marketing Expenses - Sales expenses for 2024 reached 919 million yuan, an increase of 11.1%, significantly outpacing revenue growth [6][5] - Promotional and business expenses amounted to 457 million yuan, a 35% increase from the previous year [8] Dividend Policy - Kuozi Jiao plans to distribute a dividend of 1.3 yuan per share (before tax), totaling 778 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 47.1%, below the historical average of over 50% [9][8] Market Position - Kuozi Jiao is positioned third among the "Four Heroes of Huizhou Liquor," trailing behind Gujing Gongjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu, with a widening revenue gap [10][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 43.05 RMB [7][8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.01 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.66 billion RMB, down 3.8% year-on-year. The performance in Q4 2024 showed a revenue of 1.65 billion RMB, up 9.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 340 million RMB, down 7.5% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 revenue was 1.81 billion RMB, up 2.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 610 million RMB, up 3.6% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience in a flat industry demand environment [1][2][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 6.01 billion RMB, with a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.66 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year. The Q4 2024 revenue was 1.65 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, while the net profit was 340 million RMB, down 7.5% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the revenue was 1.81 billion RMB, up 2.4% year-on-year, and the net profit was 610 million RMB, up 3.6% year-on-year [1][4] Product Performance - In 2024, the revenue from high-end, mid-range, and low-end liquor was 5.68 billion RMB, 70 million RMB, and 130 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.1%, -10.4%, and +33.0%. In Q1 2025, the corresponding revenues were 1.72 billion RMB, 20 million RMB, and 40 million RMB, with year-on-year changes of +3.5%, -12.5%, and -9.0% respectively. The company expects that products in the mass price range will perform better due to external environmental influences [2][3] Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin in 2024 decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 74.6%, with Q4 2024 showing a further decline to 74.1%. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 76.2%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The increase in sales and management expense ratios in 2024 was attributed to increased promotional spending [3][4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in 2025, driven by ongoing marketing reforms and product series development. The expectation is for industry demand to improve and channel confidence to gradually recover, leading to a positive internal and external resonance [1][4]