我们都知道 2025 年是一个货币宽松政策的 "放水年"，消费补贴放大了一倍，但是，市场的反应令人不解，1-11 月消费者价格指数同比为 0.0%。 这就很矛盾，为什么费雪方程式在中国失灵了？ 所以，不是费雪方程式失灵了，而是投资政策失灵了。 因为生产端并没有带动起需求与就业，投资的效率递减，投资与效益成反比，越投资，效益率越低；那么，为什么会出现效率递减，根本的原因是资源错 配，资金流向是办公室精英说了算，而不是看市场信号，这就是宏观文件为什么要做要素市场改革。 问题清楚了，怎么解决？ 会议精神明确地强调，新的一年中将进一步强化需求端，消费补贴将再次翻倍，但国际机构对新的一年的评估，总体上偏向于保守，因为工具箱里的工具已 经不多了。 9 11 1 什么是费雪方程式？ 费雪方程式是由美国经济学家欧文・费雪在 1911 年提出的。它定义了货币增加及流通正常时，物价会上涨。中国没有少增加货币，广义货币（M2）同比激 增 8% 至 337 万亿元，以美元计约 48 万亿美元，远超美国的 22 万亿美元、日本的 8.2 万亿美元、欧元区的 18 万亿美元，相当于三方的总和，而中国的居 民消费 GDP 占比只有 38% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of currency depreciation and rising living costs, highlighting the disconnect between interest rates and inflation, which leads to public anxiety about the value of money [2][8]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The global trend of declining interest rates has prompted various countries, including China, to adjust monetary policies to balance economic growth and debt risks [2]. - Ordinary citizens are experiencing a rise in prices for essential goods like vegetables and fruits, while bank deposit interest rates fail to keep pace with inflation, leading to a sense of currency devaluation [2][8]. Group 2: Historical Context - The concept of currency depreciation is not new; economist Irving Fisher discussed it in his 1914 work "The Money Illusion," which analyzed the dynamics of currency value fluctuations [2][6]. - Fisher's "transaction equation" (MV=PT) remains a foundational tool in macroeconomic analysis, linking money supply, velocity, price levels, and transaction volumes [2][12]. Group 3: Distinction Between Money and Wealth - Fisher emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between money and wealth, defining wealth as tangible assets that fulfill human needs, while money serves as a medium of exchange [9][10]. - Misunderstandings about money often lead to erroneous beliefs, such as equating money quantity with wealth or assuming constant money value [10][18]. Group 4: Transaction Equation - The transaction equation (MV=PT) illustrates that price levels are influenced by money supply (M), velocity of money (V), and transaction volume (T), indicating that an increase in money supply can lead to inflation if not matched by production [12][13]. - Changes in money supply, driven by banking activities and credit creation, significantly impact price levels and economic activity [14]. Group 5: Common Misconceptions - Fisher critiques popular beliefs attributing high living costs to factors like corporate greed or increased imports, arguing that competition and international trade can enhance market supply and efficiency [17][18]. - Addressing these misconceptions is crucial for formulating effective economic policies and making informed consumer decisions [18][19].

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing decline in global interest rates and the measures taken by various countries, including China, to balance economic growth and debt risks through adjustments in reserve requirements and reverse repurchase rates [2] - There is a growing public anxiety regarding the devaluation of money, as prices of essential goods like vegetables and fruits continue to rise, leading to a situation where bank interest rates do not keep pace with inflation [3] - The historical context of monetary devaluation is referenced, highlighting economist Irving Fisher's insights from his 1914 work "The Money Illusion," which explains the dynamics of money value fluctuations [3] Group 2 - Fisher's contributions to economics, particularly in monetary theory, are emphasized, including the well-known equation MV=PT, which illustrates the relationship between money supply, velocity, price levels, and transaction volume [8][9] - The distinction between money and wealth is clarified, with wealth defined as tangible assets that provide utility, while money serves as a medium of exchange without intrinsic value [10][11] - The article outlines how the increase in money supply can lead to inflation, particularly during periods of economic expansion when demand outstrips supply [12][13] Group 3 - Common misconceptions about the causes of rising living costs are addressed, such as attributing high prices solely to merchant greed or the influx of imported goods, which Fisher argues can actually enhance market supply [16][17] - The potential negative consequences of these misconceptions on government policy and public decision-making are discussed, emphasizing the importance of accurate economic understanding [17] - The relevance of Fisher's theories in contemporary economic contexts is highlighted, suggesting that they provide valuable insights for navigating current economic challenges [17][18]