澳新 银行在给客户的报告中称，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔正确地指出了美国劳动力市场在未来一个月 可能迅速走弱的风险，这使得恢复货币宽松政策成为必要。鲍威尔的基本假设是，关税将导致一次性价 格上涨，但可能需要一段时间才能完全显现。澳新银行表示，早期数据表明关税对消费者价格的影响似 乎是暂时的。这与稳定的通胀预期一起，支持了逐步宽松的立场，该行补充道。澳新银行称，杰克逊霍 尔的演讲为美联储 9 月会议降息 25 个基点铺平了道路。 ...

·银河期货：美国在未来陷入"类滞胀"仍是基准情景对贵金属形成一定支撑 ·五矿期货表示，昨夜公布的美国经济数据具备韧性，联储官员对于降息的表态相对鹰派，但仍需把握 当前联储即将步入新一轮降息周期的主线。此外，美国司法部官员致信鲍威尔，表示其计划调查美联储 理事库克，并敦促鲍威尔将库克移出理事会。今夜十点，美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔央行年会中 发表讲话，当前市场对其鹰派发言已经有所定价，但其对于货币政策的表态若存在边际小幅的转松，则 对于金银价格将形成显著的利多因素。 ·Kitco Metals网站分析师Gary S.Wagner在最新点评中表示，尽管金价在美联储主席鲍威尔讲话之前小幅 走低，但金价仍保持着强烈的看涨倾向。金价若确认每盎司3300美元的支撑，则有望在此基础上再度走 强。他具体解释说，在市场等待鲍威尔讲话以从中寻找有关货币政策信号的同时，市场对美联储9月降 息的预期已经从一周前的"几乎确定"降低至75%。对货币宽松政策缺乏乐观情绪一直是黄金面临的最大 阻力。不过，金价自4月22日创下历史高点之后一直保持着弹性，虽然面临不同的看跌力量，但金价仍 维持在高位，这表明金价的真正驱动因素仍强烈看涨，最坏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, marking the lowest level since February 2023, driven by weak domestic demand and external pressures such as U.S. tariffs [2][5][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Thailand unanimously decided to reduce the overnight repurchase rate by 25 basis points, making it the fourth rate cut in ten months [5]. - The current interest rate is the lowest since February 2023, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The Thai economy is expected to grow at a rate close to previous assessments, but U.S. trade policies are anticipated to exacerbate structural issues and weaken competitiveness, particularly affecting small businesses [5][6]. - Inflation remains a concern, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showing a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, continuing a trend of being below the central bank's target range of 1%-3% for five consecutive months [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Thai economy will significantly slow down in the second half of the year, with signs of contraction in the tourism sector, a critical component of the economy [7]. - The current low interest rate leaves limited room for further cuts, although additional rate reductions may occur later this year due to moderate price pressures and weak growth prospects [8].

Industry Overview Upstream - Energy: International crude oil prices have shown a slight upward trend [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have dropped significantly recently [2] Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PTA has declined [3] - Energy: Coal consumption in power plants has remained stable recently [3] - Infrastructure: The operating rate of asphalt has been rising continuously recently [3] Downstream - Real estate: Recent sales of commercial housing have declined [3] - Services: The box office revenue of summer movies has been rising continuously [3] Policy Overview Production Industry - Shanghai has issued measures to support enterprises in increasing investment in basic research, with different levels of one - time financial subsidies for enterprises with different annual basic research investment amounts [1] - Hainan has released an action plan to build a modern industrial system, aiming to cultivate the commercial space industry chain and achieve an operating income of 10 billion yuan in the aerospace industry cluster in Wenchang International Aerospace City by 2027 [1] Service Industry - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various monetary policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity and guide reasonable credit growth [1] Industry Credit Spread Tracking (as of 8/5) | Industry | Current | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery | 82.26 | 77.04 | 56.21 | 49.35 | 0.30 | | Mining | 30.94 | 47.98 | 35.42 | 31.88 | 0.40 | | Chemical Industry | 65.92 | 62.95 | 47.54 | 45.37 | 43.20 | 0.30 | | Steel | 35.23 | 56.36 | 46.01 | 42.01 | 40.13 | 5.10 | | Non - Ferrous Metals | 37.37 | 58.80 | 48.05 | 43.33 | 41.11 | 4.40 | | Electronics | 49.90 | 78.23 | 53.17 | 42.82 | 44.06 | 0.70 | | Automobile | 54.05 | 51.85 | 37.90 | 34.43 | 32.96 | 1.10 | | Household Appliances | 35.59 | 21.45 | 46.36 | 42.79 | 41.10 | 5.80 | | Food and Beverage | 34.22 | 46.11 | 35.53 | 31.06 | 28.90 | 0.20 | | Textile and Apparel | 43.07 | 54.72 | 51.57 | 43.28 | 40.83 | 0.50 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 44.25 | 168.19 | 142.28 | 133.76 | 131.32 | 7.20 | | Pharmaceutical and Biological | 49.06 | 73.61 | 21.88 | 47.68 | 45.75 | 0.60 | | Public Utilities | 23.59 | 34.55 | 26.02 | 23.85 | 22.13 | 0.80 | | Transportation | 24.68 | 39.10 | 28.96 | 27.63 | 26.86 | 4.50 | | Real Estate | 198.71 | 127.12 | 95.84 | 89.30 | 86.30 | 0.20 | | Commerce and Trade | 37.22 | 21.51 | 40.42 | 37.06 | 34.73 | 0.90 | | Leisure Services | 69.22 | 124.48 | 117.80 | 105.37 | 105.65 | 85.60 | | Banking | 22.29 | 19.16 | 16.05 | 16.05 | 14.40 | 1.20 | | Non - Banking Financial | 23.00 | 35.56 | 28.84 | 26.89 | 23.84 | 0.70 | | Comprehensive | 67.78 | 51.72 | 40.12 | 36.67 | 35.01 | 1.10 | | Building Materials | 31.30 | 47.42 | 35.15 | 28.51 | 26.59 | 0.50 | | Building Decoration | 34.80 | 56.69 | 50.46 | 46.97 | 45.62 | 8.90 | | Electrical Equipment | 51.00 | 80.45 | 73.91 | 69.86 | 68.68 | 26.70 | | Machinery and Equipment | 25.71 | 47.87 | 43.24 | 40.49 | 38.30 | 11.50 | | Computer | 63.70 | 63.32 | 44.59 | 37.41 | 34.72 | 0.30 | | Media | 238.93 | 45.77 | 35.91 | 34.82 | 33.51 | 1.20 | | Communications | 26.26 | 28.04 | 30.43 | 27.71 | 25.42 | 2.50 | [42] Key Industry Price Index Tracking (as of 8/4) | Industry | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | Past 5 - day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 2328.6 | - 0.18% | | | | Spot price of eggs | Daily | Yuan/kg | 8/4 | 6.4 | - 5.59% | | | | Spot price of palm oil | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 8888.0 | - 1.20% | | | | Spot price of cotton | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 15172.2 | - 2.48% | | | | Average wholesale price of pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 8/4 | 20.3 | - 0.88% | | | Non - Ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 78418.3 | - 0.92% | | | | Spot price of zinc | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 22148.0 | - 2.12% | | | | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 20493.3 | - 0.89% | | | | Spot price of nickel | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 121600.0 | - 0.88% | | | Black Metals | Spot price of aluminum | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 16737.5 | - 0.67% | | | | Spot price of rebar | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 3307.7 | - 1.32% | | | | Spot price of iron ore | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 786.2 | - 0.44% | | | | Spot price of wire rod | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 3442.5 | - 1.57% | | | Non - Metals | Spot price of glass | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 8/4 | 15.4 | - 1.72% | | | | Spot price of natural rubber | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 14433.3 | - 4.57% | | | | China Plastics City Price Index | Daily | - | 8/4 | 810.8 | - 0.24% | | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 8/4 | 67.3 | 3.33% | | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 8/4 | 69.7 | 1.80% | | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 4158.0 | 0.24% | | | | Coal price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 776.0 | 1.04% | | | Chemical Industry | Spot price of PTA | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 4808.8 | - 1.11% | | | | Spot price of polyethylene | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 7453.3 | 0.00% | | | | Spot price of urea | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 1812.5 | - 0.55% | | | | Spot price of soda ash | Daily | Yuan/ton | 8/4 | 1315.0 | 0.00% | | | Real Estate | National cement price index | Daily | - | 8/4 | 129.0 | - 0.82% | | | | Building materials composite index | Daily | Points | 8/4 | 115.9 | - 1.96% | | | | National concrete price index | Daily | Points | 8/4 | 93.6 | - 0.73% | | [43]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the bond market and its relationship with inflation, interest rates, and macroeconomic policies in the context of the Chinese economy [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Interest Rates** - Short-term market sentiment is influenced by the results of Sino-US negotiations, unexpected tightening of funds, and rising stock markets, which collectively exert pressure on interest rates [1][2][11]. - The bond market experienced poor performance in July due to rising interest rates and market volatility, driven by policy expectations and structural policies [2][8]. 2. **Inflation and Demand-Supply Dynamics** - The potential for inflation to rise due to anti-involution policies hinges on the demand side stabilizing and supply-side contraction, but the sustainability of demand remains uncertain [1][3][4][5]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) typically influences interest rates, but if the increase is solely supply-driven without demand support, the impact on the bond market will be limited [6][7]. 3. **Future Monetary Policy Expectations** - There is uncertainty regarding the likelihood of interest rate cuts or monetary easing before the end of the year. Without such measures, interest rates may stagnate, reducing the attractiveness of bond investments and potentially shifting funds to the stock market [8][9]. - The central bank is expected to maintain a flexible monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in September or October rather than August [9]. 4. **Economic Indicators and Market Trends** - Seasonal fluctuations in exchange rates and the recent rise in the US dollar index are increasing depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan, which could affect market dynamics [12]. - The bond market outlook remains optimistic despite short-term stock market fluctuations, with adjustments viewed as buying opportunities [13]. 5. **Geopolitical Factors** - The ongoing Sino-US trade discussions have provided temporary relief, but long-term uncertainties persist, which are reflected in both the bond and stock markets [11]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the need for a comprehensive analysis of the structure and duration of price increases, emphasizing that traditional industries are experiencing weak demand, which limits the ability of supply-side factors to drive overall price increases [5]. - The potential for asset scarcity is deepening, as evidenced by a decline in government bond financing year-on-year, indicating a challenging environment for investors [12].

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 200 basis points to 18%, following a previous reduction to 20% in June, marking a shift from a long-standing high of 21% [1][2] - The decision to cut rates aligns with market expectations and is interpreted as a positive signal, particularly as inflation has turned to deflation for the first time in a long period [2][3] - Key factors for the rate cut include easing inflation pressures, a strengthening ruble, and a slowdown in GDP growth during the first half of the year [2][3] Group 2 - The Central Bank's announcement indicates that inflation is decreasing faster than anticipated, and domestic demand is slowing, allowing for a return to balanced economic growth [2][3] - Despite the high benchmark rates previously helping to control inflation, concerns about economic recession have emerged due to restricted financing for businesses [3][4] - Experts predict that the recent rate cut may signal the beginning of a new easing cycle, with expectations for further reductions in September and potentially lowering the rate to 15% by year-end [4][5] Group 3 - Following the rate cut, the ruble has weakened, trading at around 80 rubles per dollar, marking a six-week low, after appreciating 45% against the dollar earlier this year [5] - Analysts forecast that the annual inflation rate, which peaked at 10.3% in March, will decline to approximately 5.6% by year-end, supporting the case for continued rate cuts [5] - The Central Bank is expected to adjust rates by 100-200 basis points in upcoming meetings, with the next meeting scheduled for September 12 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming meeting, marking the first time in a year that rates will remain unchanged as the bank awaits clarity on the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation [1][4] Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB plans to significantly lower borrowing costs by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025, aiming to keep deposit rates within a range that neither suppresses nor stimulates the economy [4] - ECB officials are divided on future actions, with some advocating for further easing due to concerns that inflation may remain below the 2% target, while others warn that increased public spending could lead to higher prices in the future [4][7] Economic Outlook - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, particularly President Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU starting August 1, has increased risks of a worse-than-expected economic outcome [7] - The ECB's most severe trade scenario predicts a 20% tariff on all European goods, which could further depress inflation [7] Euro Strength - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns among policymakers as it makes exports more expensive and lowers import costs [8] - ECB officials are cautious about the euro's strength, with potential implications for future interest rate decisions if the euro surpasses 1.20 against the dollar [8] Communication Challenges - The ECB's policy statement and President Lagarde's remarks are unlikely to change significantly, but the wording used to describe the decision to maintain rates could influence market expectations regarding future rate cuts [9][12] Official Changes - The July meeting marks the first for Olaf Sleijpen as a council member, succeeding Klaas Knot as the Dutch central bank governor, while the departure of hawkish figures like Austrian central bank governor Robert Holzmann may influence future policy discussions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming decision, marking the first pause in over a year, as it awaits clarity on the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1][2][5]. Interest Rate Policy - A Bloomberg survey indicates that all but two economists expect the ECB to keep the deposit rate unchanged, with a majority predicting a 25 basis point cut in September [1]. - The ECB is projected to cumulatively lower rates by 200 basis points between June 2024 and June 2025, aiming to position the deposit rate in a neutral zone [1]. - ECB officials are divided on future policy directions, with some open to further easing due to concerns about inflation potentially falling below the 2% target [2][3][4]. Economic Outlook - Trump's threat to impose a 30% tariff on the EU starting in August has heightened uncertainty, with risks of a less favorable outcome from trade negotiations compared to previous forecasts [6]. - The ECB's Vice President warned of potential stagnation in output for the eurozone in Q2 and Q3 if trade talks fail [6][9]. - Positive economic signals include planned military and infrastructure spending, with over 100 billion euros (approximately 117 billion dollars) in new projects announced by top German companies [9]. Euro Strength - The euro has appreciated by 13% against the dollar this year, raising concerns among policymakers about the impact on export prices and import costs [10]. - Some officials suggest that a stronger euro could lead to a reconsideration of rate cuts, while others believe such concerns are overstated [10][11]. Communication Challenges - The ECB's upcoming policy statement and President Lagarde's remarks will be closely monitored for indications of future rate cuts, particularly the use of terms like "pause" which may signal that rate cuts are not over [11][12]. - The assessment of economic risks is crucial, with expectations that if risks remain skewed to the downside, it could signal a forthcoming rate cut in September [11]. Personnel Changes - The July meeting will mark the first participation of the new Dutch central bank governor, who is viewed as a moderate hawk, while the Austrian hawk representative will attend for the last time before retirement [12].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% during its upcoming decision, marking the first pause in over a year as policymakers assess the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The ECB is anticipated to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2% based on a survey where all but two economists predict this outcome [1] - Most economists expect a 25 basis point rate cut in September, coinciding with potential trade agreement developments between the US and Europe [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Divergence in Policy - ECB officials generally agree on pausing the monetary easing cycle that has lasted for a year, but there are differing views on future policy directions [1] - Some officials express concern that inflation may fall below the 2% target again, advocating for further easing, while others warn that increased fiscal spending could lead to higher prices in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, stated that the positive impact of the monetary easing measures on the Japanese economy can only be assessed once the Bank successfully exits its easing policy [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's current monetary easing policy is under scrutiny regarding its effectiveness on the economy [1] - A successful exit from the easing policy is deemed necessary for evaluating the measures' impact [1]