Workflow
资产习性
icon
Search documents
低利率时代资产配置攻略:国信资配体系概览
Guoxin Securities· 2025-12-24 12:50
Group 1 - The report highlights that the global asset allocation framework is entering a new era of reconstruction due to factors such as aging population, de-globalization, and rising risk aversion, which keep interest rates at low levels and limit the supply of safe assets [3][6] - It emphasizes the importance of balancing the pursuit of returns and the need for safety in asset allocation, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [3][6] - The report outlines three main strategies for navigating the low-interest-rate era: expanding asset allocation from local to global, shifting focus from narrow high-dividend stocks to broader cash cows, and localizing all-weather strategies [3][13][18] Group 2 - The report discusses the challenges faced by the traditional "60/40" asset allocation strategy, which is being reshaped by three core drivers: irreversible aging population, fragmented geopolitical landscape, and heightened risk aversion due to "black swan" events [6][9] - It introduces a nested cycle approach where long cycles set direction, mid-cycles select sectors, and short cycles identify entry points, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive view to avoid getting lost in short-term volatility [9][10] - The report suggests that in the low-interest-rate environment, investors are forced to pursue higher Sharpe ratio assets, leading to the increasing value of FOF (Fund of Funds) assets, which can enhance returns of traditional stock-bond portfolios [10][15] Group 3 - The report identifies the first countermeasure in the low-interest-rate era as expanding asset allocation from local to global, noting that different countries have varying asset distribution preferences [13][17] - The second countermeasure involves transitioning from a narrow focus on high-dividend stocks to a broader view of cash cows, emphasizing the importance of cash flow certainty behind dividend yields [15][18] - The third countermeasure is the localization of all-weather strategies, which do not rely on precise predictions of future growth and inflation, thus providing a balanced approach in an uncertain macro environment [18][20]