兰及五号 目間最高劃/ 保险工 2025 年 10 月 10 日 版 发行业 相关研究 若研究祝 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 孙冀齐 (8621)23297818× sunjg@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 看好健康险的二次腾飞机遇 ――《关于推动健康保险高质量发展的指导意见》点评 新"国十条"在健康险领域迎来专项落实。9 月 30 日，金管局发布《关于推动健康保险高质 量发展的指导意见》(简称"《意见》")，标志着新"国十条" 在健康保险领域的专项落实，外 部环境、客户需求变化叠加政策支持态势下，看好低利率时代健康险产品的二次腾飞机遇。 明确健康险的四大分类,进一步完善多元化健康保障及服务体系。1) 明确健康保险的产品分 类、政策定位及发展方向:i) 商业医疗保险:政策定位为"积极发展",需构建"全覆盖、多 层次"的产品体系，扩大保障范围，提升保险费率与承保风险的匹配度；ii) 商业长 ...

"手握百万巨款，你打算如何安排这笔资金？是选择购置房产、囤积黄金，还是投入自我提升的教育赛道？"我呷了一口手中温热的咖啡，向对面的朋友抛出 了这个经典难题。他闻言长叹一声，面露难色："这真是一个烫手的山芋啊。如今的银行利率低得可怜，把钱存进去，恐怕连通货膨胀的脚步都跟不上。"我 深以为然地点了点头："此言极是。在低利率的泥淖中，把钱锁在银行，无异于让财富陷入沉睡，我们必须绞尽脑汁，寻求更有效的方式来稳固和增长我们 的资产。" 财富的"沉睡"：银行存款的悖论 许多人面对大笔资金的第一本能反应，往往是回归银行体系。毕竟，那份稳如泰山的"安全感"是其他投资难以比拟的，本金损失的风险几乎为零。然而，现 实的残酷在于，当下的银行利率已跌至历史低位。即便是手握一百万，一年的利息收入也只够勉强支付几顿像样的晚餐。一旦计入通货膨胀的侵蚀，你会赫 然发现，账户上的数字看似纹丝未动，实则财富的实际购买力正在缓慢而坚定地"缩水"。想要真正守住财富的门槛，仅仅依赖银行的储蓄柜台，是远远不够 的。 黄金的抉择：避险的盾牌还是流动的泡沫？ 稳健之道：构建多元化的财富防御矩阵 将所有鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，永远是理财的大忌。面对百万资金，最稳 ...

• 盈利稳：银行、公用事业、电信运营商这类龙头，就算经济波动也能赚钱； • 分红稳：国央企市值管理新政鼓励分红，分红手续费还降了，政策托底明显。 上海的陈先生去年买了某电信央企股票，除了每年 5.3% 的分红，股价还涨了 12%，算下来年化收益 17%。他说："比存款赚得多，风险比炒股小，适合不 想操心的普通人。" 公募 REITs 也是好选择。保障房类 REITs 股息率普遍 3%-4%，底层是收租金的实物资产，相当于 "买了个能收租的门面"，比存款灵活，收益还更高。 10 年期国债收益率跌到 1.6%，国有大行 3 年定存利率破 2%，货币基金收益连创新低。 数据很扎心：居民存款单月新增 1.8 万亿元，大家都在把钱往银行搬。但另一面，北向资金单周净流入 230 亿元，社保基金悄悄加仓两类资产 —— 高股息 股票和长久期成长标的。 不是存钱错了，是只存钱会亏。低利率时代，钱躺在银行里，每年实际购买力都在缩水。聪明钱早就看懂：与其赚 1.5% 的利息，不如布局能穿越周期的核 心资产。 1. 高股息资产：5%+ 收益的 "类存款" 替代品 利率越低，稳定分红越香。中证红利指数现在股息率 5.16%，比 3 年 ...

当前，中国货币政策状态是支持性的，总量也是比较宽松的，主要利率均处于历史低位。预计未来低利 率可能还会持续一段时间。低利率时代，中国资本市场的高质量发展显得尤为重要。 促进经济转型 从国内外经验看，货币紧缩可以遏制物价上涨，但货币宽松对于治理物价低迷的效果欠佳，因为后者通 常涉及结构性问题，更多需要依靠结构性政策来解决。 "有外部环境不确定性的挑战，有新旧动能转换的压力"是理解当前中国经济运行和政策的重要逻辑出发 点。这些都是前进中的问题。战胜与克服这些困难和挑战，关键是加快构建新发展格局，因地制宜发展 新质生产力，实现经济高质量发展。而这离不开资本市场的高质量发展。 "负债多本金少"是中国融资结构失衡的重要表现。提高直接融资尤其是股权融资比重一直是中国金融体 制改革的重要目标。2023年底中央金融工作会议进一步提出，优化融资结构，更好发挥资本市场枢纽功 能。从去年的"新国九条"到"1+N"政策体系落地，再到今年 7 月底中央政治局会议强调"增强国内资本 市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头"，已释放了清晰的政策信号。 资本市场具有独特的风险共担、利益共享的激励相容机制，有助于促进产业—科技—资本的 ...

Group 1 - The current monetary policy in China is supportive and relatively loose, with major interest rates at historical lows, and low interest rates are expected to persist for some time [1] - The imbalance in China's financing structure, characterized by high debt and low equity, is a significant issue, and increasing the proportion of direct financing, especially equity financing, has been a key goal of financial reform [2][4] - Recent policies, such as the "New National Nine Articles" and the "1+N" policy framework, aim to enhance the quality of listed companies, encourage dividend returns to investors, and promote the development of public funds [4][6] Group 2 - The capital market plays a crucial role in fostering a virtuous cycle among industry, technology, and capital, supporting both the growth of emerging industries and the transformation of traditional industries [3] - The need to enhance domestic demand, particularly final consumption, is emphasized as a pathway to economic growth, with property income being a significant source of household income [4] - The current challenges in China's financial system include a lack of effective financing demand from the real economy and low lending enthusiasm from banks, which necessitates the development of a diversified financing structure [6][7] Group 3 - The construction of a financial powerhouse is essential for the overall economic strength of the nation, with a strong currency being a key component of this vision [6][7] - The internationalization of the Renminbi is highlighted as a critical aspect of achieving a strong currency, which requires high-level financial openness and the reform of capital market systems [6][7] - The emphasis on institutional openness in the capital market includes aligning domestic regulations with international standards to better support and attract foreign investment [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in Chinese residents' savings behavior in response to declining interest rates, highlighting a trend of moving funds from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial products [1][12][14] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - Recent data from the People's Bank of China shows that resident deposits have fallen below seasonal growth for the first time this year, while deposits in non-bank financial institutions have reached a record high [1][12] - Major state-owned banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with the five-year fixed deposit rate now at only 1.3%, significantly lower than previous rates [2][3] Group 2: Generational Perspectives on Savings - Different generations exhibit varied responses to the low-interest environment: the cautious approach of the "50s," the hesitance of the "70s," the balanced view of the "80s," and the experimental attitude of the "00s" [1][5] - Older generations, like "50s" retirees, prefer traditional savings, while younger generations are more inclined to explore diverse investment options [5][11] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Many individuals are adopting a dual strategy: maintaining some funds in traditional deposits while seeking higher returns through stocks, funds, and insurance products [7][11] - "Fixed income plus" products are gaining popularity, offering a blend of fixed income and equity assets to balance risk and return [7][8] Group 4: Market Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" is evident, with a significant increase in A-share trading volumes and new stock account openings, indicating a shift towards more active capital market participation [12][14] - Historical patterns suggest that deposit migration is influenced by interest rate environments and capital market performance, with lower rates prompting a search for higher-yielding assets [13][14]

编辑丨和佳,张星 "创新牛"方兴未艾，在资本市场新气象的驱动下，一场关于中国资产的价值重塑正悄然展开， 居民财富悄然"迁徙"。截至9月25日收盘，上证指数年内涨14.96%，深证成指涨29.11%，创业 板指涨51.09%，恒生指数涨32.03%，恒生科技指数涨42.77%。 "中国居民储蓄将更多流向金融投资，尤其是未来能够创造稳定现金流的优质项目将成为最具 吸引力的资产。这些新项目的底层资产主要涵盖与科技创新和高质量发展相适配的新基建、消 费基建、新型城镇化等领域，与国家重大战略方向高度契合。"在近日举办的全球资管中心评 价指数发布暨CLF50秋季会议上，盛松成接受了21世纪经济报道记者专访。 盛松成 2 1世纪经济报道资料图片 内外部环境也给中国资产价格提供了支撑。在盛松成看来，中国降息的外部环境改善，预计未 来美联储降息还会持续，中国降息仍有空间。不过，短期内中国尚不具备"大幅"降息的基础， 预计未来一段时期，中国依然会以积极的财政政策为主，适度宽松的货币政策予以配合。 9月22日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜回应美联储降息时表示，中国货币政策坚持以我为主、兼 顾内外平衡，往后看，我们将根据宏观经济运行情况和 ...

Group 1 - Strategic restructuring of Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group has been announced, with control remaining unchanged under the Henan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1] - Henan Province has completed the issuance of government bonds totaling 20.38745 billion yuan, including 303.63 million yuan for refinancing existing hidden debts, with strict regulations against new hidden debts [2] - Henan Zhongyu Credit Enhancement Co., Ltd. has become one of the first institutions in the country to obtain the qualification for creating credit risk mitigation certificates [4] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 483.5 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 296.5 billion yuan [6] - Luoyang City is expanding the scope of local government special bonds to support urban renewal projects, aiming to complete 19 village renovations by the end of 2027 [8][9] - Shandong Province is promoting new mechanisms for public-private partnerships (PPP) and REITs in urban renewal, encouraging integrated project financing models [9] Group 3 - Luoyang City has issued an urban renewal action plan for 2025-2030, focusing on the renovation of urban villages and the management of special funds [8] - The issuance of various corporate bonds has been approved, including a 10 billion yuan bond by Luohe Investment Holding Group and a 5 billion yuan bond by Henan Highway Project Management Company [10][11] - The issuance of a 5 billion yuan bond by Henan Provincial Urban-Rural Integration Development Group has been completed, with a 2.23% interest rate [12]

Group 1: Market Trends - The Chinese capital market is experiencing a value reshaping, with significant increases in major indices: Shanghai Composite Index up 14.96%, Shenzhen Component Index up 29.11%, ChiNext Index up 51.09%, Hang Seng Index up 32.03%, and Hang Seng Tech Index up 42.77% as of September 25 [1] - There is a shift in Chinese residents' savings towards financial investments, particularly in quality projects that can generate stable cash flows, aligning with national strategic directions in new infrastructure, consumption infrastructure, and urbanization [1][9] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain a proactive fiscal policy complemented by moderately loose monetary policy, with room for future interest rate cuts, although significant cuts are not anticipated in the short term [2][8] - The PBOC's approach is to ensure liquidity while considering both domestic and international economic conditions, with a focus on maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2][5] Group 3: Asset Management Industry - The asset management industry in China is evolving, with a notable increase in the issuance of public REITs, particularly in new infrastructure projects, although the overall proportion remains low [10][11] - The global asset management landscape is changing, with Shanghai rising to fifth place in the global asset management center ranking, driven by advancements in digital infrastructure and asset management technology [12][13] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - New investment opportunities are emerging in sectors aligned with technological innovation and high-quality development, which are expected to attract more private capital [9][10] - The shift in investment focus from real estate to diversified financial assets is seen as a response to the changing economic landscape, with an emphasis on projects that can provide stable cash flows [9][10] Group 5: Global Economic Context - The international economic environment, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, is influencing China's monetary policy and the RMB's exchange rate, with expectations of continued RMB appreciation in the medium to long term [2][20] - The rise of gold as a strategic asset is noted, driven by geopolitical tensions and U.S. debt issues, indicating a potential long-term trend in investment strategies [17][18]

Group 1 - The core value of money market funds is not high returns but liquidity management, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - Money market funds are characterized as low-risk, low-return, and high liquidity investment tools suitable for short-term fund management [1] - Compared to bank fixed deposits, money market funds offer superior liquidity, allowing for immediate purchase and redemption without prior appointment [1] Group 2 - Despite the overall decline in money market fund yields, investors can adopt reasonable management strategies to optimize the use of "liquid funds" [1] - Funds needed in the short term can be placed in money market funds for easy access, while funds that may not be used for three months or longer can be allocated to slightly less liquid but higher-yield products [1] - The integration of money market funds into daily life through services like Yu'ebao and WeChat's "零钱通" enhances their utility for both payment and investment [1]