製品家TF 基民投资者真正需要的,从来都不是被教育, 他们需要被看见、被尊重、被服务。中国基金 报想通过首档基民连线栏目《基民来了》，让 业内能够直接听到来自基民们的声音。 今年各类资产波动剧烈,一些长期 回报相当不错的品种,回报率也下 降了，想要获得稳稳的收益,难度 越来越大了。 究竟怎么应对市场的剧烈波动？想 要投资更稳一些,有什么应对之 策? 8月22日15:00,中国基金报联合汇华理 财推出《其民实了》8·18投教节 专场。 分享低利率时代,资产配置的破局思路。 同时， 节目将连线两位低风险偏好投资 听听他们在波动中求稳的投资实战经 者, 验。 ca 中国基金报 投资者教育基地 818投教节 理财收益率一陸再低 墓尾亲子 今年近能做稳稳的投资吗? 主办单位:中国基金报 支持单位:汇华理财 ca 投资者教育基地 ((C) 汇华理财有限公司 基民来信 * 直播时间 © 8/22下午15:00 点击下方视频即可预约锁定直播间 直播看点 基民间答 84 基民喜宾 李先生 李先生 买其令10年 买其令11年 分享大纲 什么时候开始投资低风险基金? 1、 买基金是短线操作,还是长期持有多? 2、 低风险投资占比是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry is undergoing significant transformation due to low interest rates, necessitating diversified asset allocation to address yield challenges [1][2][4]. Group 1: Current Challenges - The investment yield for insurance funds has decreased from a range of 4%-5% to 3%-4%, with new high-quality non-standard asset yields falling below 3% [2]. - The duration gap for life insurance liabilities is 4-7 years, exceeding the 2-year gap seen in mature overseas markets, leading to increased reallocation pressure as high-yield assets mature [2][4]. Group 2: Strategies for Adaptation - Four strategies from overseas asset management institutions include extending duration to lock in long-term yields, taking on credit risk for premium returns, allocating to equity assets for higher returns, and investing in alternative assets for liquidity risk [2]. - A localized multi-asset allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on broadening asset allocation to mitigate risks while enhancing detailed management to achieve higher returns [4]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - For fixed-income assets, there is a need to enhance research on long-term interest rates and credit risks, while diversifying strategy tools to balance portfolio risks [4]. - The emphasis on equity assets should be increased, focusing on stable cash flow traditional industry leaders and exploring strategic emerging industries driven by new consumption trends [5]. Group 4: Investment Techniques - Quantitative investment is highlighted as a key tool, with an increase in passive investment and the use of quantitative models to capture style rotations and hedge volatility risks [6]. - In alternative investments, there is an opportunity in equity investments as the economy shifts to high-quality growth, while non-standard debt assets should focus on revitalizing existing quality cash flow assets [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The asset management industry is experiencing a paradigm shift under the dual challenges of low interest rates and asset scarcity, with a call for long-termism, innovative allocation, and a commitment to national strategies [6].

Core Insights - The current market has shifted into an era that requires more active exploration of excess returns (α), moving away from the previous low-interest-rate environment where holding assets easily generated coupon income [1] - Asset management institutions are increasingly demanding multi-asset allocation to enhance the stability of investment portfolio returns amid rising global economic uncertainties [1] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The "fixed income +" strategy still has room for expansion despite narrowing coupon yields in the bond market, with gold prices rising since November 2022 due to central bank allocation behaviors in emerging markets [2] - Gold has risen to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, with a current share of 20% in global official reserves, which amounts to approximately $15 trillion; an increase in gold's share to 23% could lead to significant inflows [2] - The "fixed income + USD" combination has performed well in the past two to three years, benefiting from USD appreciation and changes in the China-US interest rate differential [2] Group 2: Bond Market Insights - China's bond market has considerable development potential, with foreign investors holding only about 3% of the market compared to over 40% in the US [3] - The current yield on China's 10-year government bonds is approximately 1.7%, but for overseas investors, the actual yield can reach 4% or higher due to currency exchange and hedging strategies [3] - Effective use of derivatives is crucial for generating excess returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The risks associated with the "fixed income + USD" strategy include duration risk, foreign exchange risk, and term risk, with foreign exchange risk being particularly prominent [4] - The current fixed income market exhibits a "bear steepening" characteristic, where short-term bonds show less volatility compared to long-term bonds [4] - The future direction of gold investment is influenced by central bank adjustments in reserve assets, with gold likely to continue appreciating as the US enters a rate-cutting cycle [5] Group 4: Alternative Strategies - Two strategic directions are suggested for current market conditions: global allocation to high-yield bonds in emerging markets and the development of alternative strategies such as asset-backed securities (ABS) and derivatives [5] - The trading volume and open interest in interest rate derivatives, such as China's government bond futures, have increased nearly tenfold over the past five years, indicating rapid growth in this sector [6] - Financial institutions need to focus on precise duration risk management and effective use of interest rate derivatives to achieve differentiated investment risk control [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the paradox of China's commercial banks experiencing pressure on performance due to low interest rates while their stock prices continue to reach new highs. It proposes a strategic thinking framework to understand the underlying logic of the valuation recovery of commercial banks and explores the sustainability of this recovery process [3]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - Since 2019, interest rates in China have been on a downward trend, leading to a continuous narrowing of net interest margins. As of June 30, 2025, the 1-year and 5-year LPR were 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, down 125 basis points and 135 basis points from August 2019 [5]. - The asset side of banks faces competitive pressure to lower loan rates, while the liability side has rigid deposit rates, resulting in a faster decline in asset yields compared to liability costs. By Q1 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.43%, a decrease of 74 basis points from 2019 [5]. - Interest income constitutes a significant portion of banks' revenue, averaging 79% from 2019 to 2024. The compound growth rate of interest income for 42 listed banks over the past five years was 2.9%, while the growth rate of interest-earning assets was 8.1%, indicating a clear trend of "volume compensating for price" [6]. Group 2: Performance vs. Stock Price - Despite a significant slowdown in profit growth and overall performance pressure for listed banks in 2023, their stock prices have reached new highs. The average growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders for listed banks from 2023 to mid-2024 was 1.9%, a decline of about 5.0% compared to the average from 2019 to 2022 [8]. - The banking sector's performance ranked 13th among 31 secondary industries in terms of net profit growth from 2023 to 2024, indicating that it did not outperform other sectors. However, the banking sector's cumulative stock price increase was 88%, ranking 4th among the same industries [8]. - Individual banks such as ICBC, Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China saw cumulative stock price increases exceeding 100%, despite their average net profit growth being similar to the sector average [8]. Group 3: Strategic Perspective on Bank Stock Performance - A fundamental analysis of commercial banks does not adequately explain the stock price increases over the past two years. A strategic perspective is suggested to analyze factors that have altered investor expectations, leading to changes in value [10]. - The current bull market for bank stocks is driven by multiple factors, including a decline in the risk-free rate, improved risk assessment, and decreased risk appetite among investors. These factors have a more significant impact than the pressure on performance [10]. - The decline in the risk-free rate enhances the overall valuation of banks. As of now, the yield on 10-year government bonds has dropped to 1.6% to 1.7%, making bank stocks more attractive compared to their dividend yield of around 4.5% [11]. - Improved risk assessment and decreased risk appetite also contribute to the rise in bank stock prices. The current economic policies and stabilization measures have led to a more favorable risk environment for banks, particularly concerning credit and liquidity risks [12].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional bank deposit attractiveness has significantly declined due to low interest rates, prompting a shift in investment strategies among young people towards alternative financial products [1][2][13]. Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - The one-year fixed deposit rate of the six major banks in China has dropped to 0.95%, marking a historic low [1]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a trend towards a moderately loose monetary policy, which may lead to further declines in deposit rates [1][2]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is increasingly evident, with funds moving from traditional savings accounts to other financial products [2]. Group 2: Investment Alternatives - Money market funds, bond funds, and gold are becoming popular investment choices for young people seeking higher returns and lower volatility [1][3][14]. - Money market funds offer high liquidity and low risk, with annualized returns between 1.1% and 1.5%, which is higher than bank savings but may decrease further [4][5]. - Bond funds provide greater yield elasticity and are considered medium-low risk, suitable for investors with a six-month or longer investment horizon [6][7][14]. - Gold serves as a hedge against inflation and has a low correlation with stocks and bonds, but it carries higher volatility and does not generate interest or dividends [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The emergence of hybrid investment strategies, such as money-bond advisory strategies, aims to balance liquidity and yield elasticity by dynamically adjusting the proportions of money market and bond funds [10][12]. - The "工银货债通" product exemplifies this strategy, achieving an annualized return of 2.33% since its inception, with a maximum drawdown of 0.12% [12][14]. - These strategies are particularly suitable for low-risk investors seeking slightly higher returns while maintaining liquidity [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry is facing a transformative era characterized by the need to break old path dependencies and reconstruct core competitiveness, emphasizing a return to long-term value creation for clients and a more open ecosystem [3]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The "2025 Asset Management Annual Conference" was held in Shanghai, focusing on themes such as multi-asset allocation and new trends in asset management under the rise of passive investment [1]. - The conference featured a main forum and two parallel thematic forums, attracting nearly a thousand industry professionals and notable speakers [1][3]. Group 2: Key Insights from Speakers - Liu Shijun, former Deputy Director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, suggested that policies should focus on increasing consumer spending as a proportion of GDP to stabilize growth [5]. - Li Yang from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences emphasized the need for financial institutions to transform in response to the challenges posed by a low-interest-rate environment, advocating for the development of financial services and asset management [7]. Group 3: Discussions on Asset Management Strategies - The main forum discussed how asset management institutions can rebuild competitiveness, with a consensus on enhancing research and customer service capabilities as critical factors [9]. - The conference highlighted the importance of "product + service" in providing comprehensive financial services from asset allocation to wealth management [9]. Group 4: Trends in Investment Strategies - The rise of ETFs as a significant tool for multi-asset and multi-strategy investment was noted, with the ETF market evolving into a new infrastructure for asset allocation [13][14]. - The low-interest-rate environment has led many asset management firms to adopt multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches, leveraging the advantages of ETFs for liquidity and low transaction costs [14].

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry is facing a transformative era characterized by "breaking the old patterns" and "reconstructing core competitiveness," emphasizing a return to the essence of creating long-term stable returns for clients and enhancing capabilities through an open ecosystem and systematic thinking [1]. Group 1: Key Discussions at the Conference - The conference featured a main forum and two parallel thematic forums, attracting nearly a thousand industry professionals and notable speakers, including government officials and financial experts [1]. - Hu Zhiyong, Secretary of the Party Committee of Southern Finance and Economics Media Group, highlighted the need for the industry to break free from old dependencies and reconstruct its core competitiveness [1]. - Liu Shijun, former Deputy Director of the State Council Development Research Center, proposed structural reforms to boost consumption, focusing on housing for new citizens, pension system reforms, and facilitating the flow of production factors [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Strategies in the Low-Interest Rate Environment - Li Yang from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences emphasized a dual approach to tackle challenges posed by the low-interest rate environment, advocating for the transformation of financial intermediaries and the development of capital markets [7]. - The roundtable discussion on "how asset management institutions can recreate competitiveness" underscored the importance of enhancing research and customer service capabilities, with a focus on comprehensive financial services [9]. - The conference released two significant reports: "2025 China Asset Management Development Trend Report" and "Internet Wealth Management Custody Business Development White Paper" [9]. Group 3: Trends in Asset Management - The forum on "new trends in asset management under the development of passive investment" noted that the low-interest rate environment and changing economic conditions present both opportunities and challenges for the wealth management industry [14]. - ETFs are emerging as a crucial tool for multi-asset and multi-strategy investment, with a diverse and healthy holder structure contributing to the revitalization of the ETF market ecosystem [14][15]. - The discussion highlighted that multi-asset and multi-strategy approaches are essential for addressing the challenges of low returns while meeting investor expectations [15].

Core Insights - The asset management industry is facing a critical period of "breaking the deadlock and restructuring," emphasizing the need to move beyond traditional paths and enhance core competitiveness [3] - The conference highlighted the importance of creating long-term stable returns for clients and adapting to the evolving economic landscape [3][5] Group 1: Conference Overview - The "2025 Asset Management Annual Conference" was held in Shanghai, focusing on themes such as multi-asset allocation and new trends in asset management under the rise of passive investment [1] - The event attracted nearly a thousand industry professionals and featured key speeches from prominent figures in finance and economics [1][3] Group 2: Economic Insights and Recommendations - Liu Shijin suggested that policies should focus on boosting consumption through investment and addressing structural imbalances in consumption's share of GDP [5] - Recommendations included reforms in housing for new citizens, pension system improvements, and facilitating the flow of production factors to drive urbanization [5] Group 3: Challenges and Strategies in Asset Management - Financial institutions are challenged by a low-interest-rate environment, necessitating a dual approach of transforming financial intermediaries and developing capital markets [7] - The focus for asset management institutions should be on enhancing research capabilities and client service to rebuild competitiveness [9] Group 4: Trends in Asset Allocation - The conference discussed the shift in client demands towards comprehensive solutions and absolute returns, necessitating a response to issues like strategy homogenization and product liquidity mismatches [11] - The importance of multi-asset strategies and the role of ETFs as a new foundational tool for asset allocation were emphasized [14][15] Group 5: Innovations and Future Directions - The event saw the release of significant reports on asset management trends and the introduction of new product systems by various institutions [9] - The ETF market is evolving, with a diverse and healthy holder structure, which is expected to invigorate the market ecosystem [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment opportunity in cash flow ETFs (159399) as a core asset in a low interest rate environment, highlighting the importance of stable free cash flow as a financial foundation for sustained economic growth [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - In a low interest rate environment, the compounding effect of stable free cash flow becomes crucial for long-term economic performance [1] - The market's pricing logic is shifting towards the accumulation of cash flow rather than front-end expansion due to changes in economic operation models [1] - Free cash flow assets rely on controllable capital expenditures, cost management, and efficient operating capital, allowing for substantial cash flow generation even with zero profit growth [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - The article identifies three main sectors for dividend value investments: 1. Leading consumer demand sectors (e.g., liquor, dining, home appliances) 2. Cyclical resource products (benefiting from supply contraction and price elasticity) 3. Low dividend yield varieties (e.g., electricity, banking) - These sectors are considered to have long-term allocation value due to their low valuation levels [1] Group 3: ETF Overview - The cash flow ETF (159399) tracks the FTSE China A-Share Free Cash Flow Focus Index (888888), which selects A-share companies with high free cash flow yield and good financial health from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] - The index aims to reflect the overall performance of Chinese A-share listed companies with robust cash flow characteristics across multiple industries [1]

Fixed Income - The bank wealth management market's existing scale reached 30.67 trillion yuan as of H1 2025, an increase of 0.72 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, surpassing the average change of -0.13 trillion yuan from H1 2021 to H1 2024 [2][7][8] - The average annualized yield of wealth management products weakened in H1 2025, with an average yield of 2.12%, down 0.53 percentage points from the entire year of 2024 [9][10] - The market is expected to stabilize above 30 trillion yuan in H2 2025, with a focus on long-term municipal investment bonds and capital bonds [10] New Consumption - Maternal and Infant Industry - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to stimulate the maternal and infant industry, with the market size projected to reach 76,299 billion yuan in 2024 and 89,149 billion yuan by 2027 [12][13] - The birth population in China is expected to increase to 9.54 million in 2024, marking a rise of 520,000 from 2023, the first increase since 2017 [13] - The policy aims to alleviate family burdens and enhance birth rates, benefiting sectors such as dairy products, education and training, and infant care [13] New Consumption - Investment Opportunities - The high-end beauty sector is expected to grow faster than the mass market, with projected CAGR of 9.6% for skincare and 10.8% for makeup from 2023 to 2028 [14][15] - The ancient gold market shows strong growth potential, with a CAGR of 21.8% expected from 2023 to 2028 [15][16] - The current beverage market is seeing a rise in ready-to-drink products, with the market size for ready-to-drink beverages reaching 5,175 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market [16][17] Medical Devices - Kaili Medical - Kaili Medical is positioned as a leader in ultrasound and endoscopy equipment, with new product launches expected to enhance market penetration [19][20] - The company has expanded its workforce significantly, preparing for a recovery in the medical device sector, with procurement activities showing signs of normalization [20][21] - Revenue forecasts for Kaili Medical indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 2.388 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 3.224 billion yuan by 2027 [21] Transportation - YTO Express - YTO Express reported a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, with a business volume growth of 19.34% [23][24] - The express delivery market is experiencing structural growth, with YTO's business volume growth outpacing overall market growth [24][25] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to improve profitability in the express delivery sector, with YTO's net profit per ticket projected to increase significantly [25][26]