资产负债表缩减计划
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吴说本周宏观指标与分析:美联储举行支付创新会议、美国 9 月 CPI
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-20 00:55
Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the balance sheet reduction plan may end in the coming months due to rising overnight financing rates, prompting a reassessment of quantitative tightening (QT) progress [2] - The latest Beige Book report from the Federal Reserve shows that overall economic activity in the U.S. has remained stable, with mixed growth across different regions [2] - Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the BOJ will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price trends meet expectations, with a potential increase to 0.75% expected by January [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is experiencing slight declines in consumer spending and weakened labor demand, with some companies laying off workers due to soft demand and increased investment in artificial intelligence [2] - Wage growth across regions has been moderate, while prices continue to rise due to increased import costs, higher service spending, and tariff impacts [2] - Key upcoming events include China's Q3 GDP release on October 20, a Federal Reserve meeting on payment innovations on October 21, and the U.S. September CPI release on October 24 [3]
Powell 暗示 QT 可能数月内结束,警告撤销 IOR 或引发市场动荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-14 19:40
Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the asset balance sheet reduction plan may conclude in the coming months due to the recent strengthening of overnight financing rates, prompting a reassessment of the progress of Quantitative Tightening (QT) [1] - Powell warned that if Congress were to eliminate the Interest on Reserves (IOR) mechanism, the Federal Reserve could lose effective control over short-term interest rates, potentially leading to a forced large-scale sale of Treasury bonds or mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which could threaten market stability [1] Group 1 - The asset balance sheet reduction plan may end soon due to rising overnight financing rates [1] - The Federal Reserve is reassessing the progress of Quantitative Tightening (QT) [1] Group 2 - Powell cautioned about the risks of Congress removing the Interest on Reserves (IOR) mechanism [1] - Loss of control over short-term interest rates could lead to significant market instability [1]