| | | --- | | 冠 | | --- | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2026/01/08 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.150 | 4.415 | 3.521 | 2.849 | 3.514 | 3.251 | 0.241 | 3.379 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.116 | 6.234 | 1.892 | - | 4.758 | 4.492 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.472 | 3.673 | 2.088 | 1.162 ...

| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2026/01/06 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 美元兑主要新兴经济体货币汇率 | | | | | | | | | | 巴西 | | 俄罗斯 | 南非zar | 韩元 | ...

Precious metals, as well as U.S. assets such as Treasury bonds rallied. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF rose 0.4%. The Dow rose nearly 600 points, or 1.2%. The S&P 500 was up 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.7%. The Dow traded as high as 49,209.95 before paring gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average marked its highest close on record after Wall Street shrugged off the U.S.' capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the weakening of the US dollar and the improvement of risk appetite led to a steeper curve overseas, while in China, loose funds drove the yield curve to steepen. The bond market remained volatile due to the supply - demand contradiction at the long end [2]. - In 2026, the PPI is facing three positive factors: the tail - lifting factor, imported inflation, and the continued effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. Under the neutral scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. The mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors to significantly affect the bond market [3][55]. - Currently, the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. There are some structural opportunities, such as the follow - up rise opportunity of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression opportunity of credit spreads [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: December 2025 - Curve Steepening Driven by Overseas and Domestic Factors Overseas - In December 2025, the Fed announced reserve management - style purchases (RMP) and continued to cut interest rates. The US dollar index weakened, liquidity improved, the US stock market rose, and risk appetite recovered. The US bond yield curve steepened due to factors like Fed's short - term bond purchase, market concerns about Fed independence, and rising commodity prices. Precious and industrial metals performed well, with copper benefiting from AI demand and gold and silver supported by geopolitical events [10][16]. Domestic - In November 2025, the domestic economic fundamentals showed a divergence between quantity and price, and in December, both supply and demand declined. The capital market was generally loose, and the overnight interest rate hit a new low for the year. The bond market remained volatile due to the long - end supply - demand contradiction, and the yield curve steepened [17][23]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks and insurance companies, as allocation players, increased their bond - buying in the secondary market in December. Large banks added some policy - related financial bonds and focused on 5 - 7 - year varieties. Insurance companies mainly added long - term treasury bonds. Trading players became conservative. Rural commercial banks mainly invested in certificates of deposit, funds reduced duration and mainly sold long - term treasury bonds, and wealth management products seasonally reduced bond allocation and slightly increased credit bond allocation [26][35][47]. PART2: How the 2026 Re - inflation Narrative May Affect the Bond Market 2026 PPI's Three Positive Factors - The tail - lifting factor can support the PPI to turn positive in the second half of 2026 even without new price - increasing factors [55]. - Imported inflation may occur as overseas capital expenditure and manufacturing investment are likely to rise in 2026. The US deficit rate may expand, and the Fed's new round of easing may release emerging market countries' capital expenditure demand [57]. - The "anti - involution" policy has shown a supporting effect on the PPI. Since August 2025, the month - on - month PPI of the mining industry has turned positive, driving the overall PPI to turn positive since October [60]. PPI Forecast under Different Scenarios - Under the pessimistic scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2026 with an average monthly PPI growth rate of 0%. Under the neutral scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.1%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.2%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in April 2026 and exceed 2% in the second half of the year [67]. PPI's Impact on the Bond Market - Historically, during the four PPI upward cycles since 2009, three typical upward periods were driven by the resonance of domestic and overseas demand or supply - demand. The PPI and the bond market generally move in the same direction, but there were several periods of divergence, mainly due to strong economic recovery expectations or PPI being mainly affected by the supply side while the domestic demand did not improve significantly and the monetary policy remained loose [69][71]. - In 2026, the mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors such as total demand, central bank's capital management, financial institutions' liability - side stability, and the flow of activated household deposits to significantly affect the bond market. The trading of typical total assets based on re - inflation may have limited odds [78]. PART3: Bond Market Strategy for January 2026 - In January 2026, the bond market may still be in a wait - and - see period. Potential risks include government bond supply pressure, the spring rally in the equity market, and the first - quarter credit boom. Potential positive factors include the possible relaxation of large banks' bond - allocation pressure and the relatively loose capital market, with a higher probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut than an interest - rate cut in January [81]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. Structurally, there are opportunities such as the follow - up rise of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression of credit spreads in credit bonds [4][83].

前段时间，我在网上看到一篇文章，说全国的负债已经高达200万亿，折算到每个人头上，人均负债达 到了14万。看到这个数字，我当时的反应就是吓了一跳。我问自己，这些负债到底是从哪儿来的？我们 的钱被花到了哪里？这些负债最后会怎么样？一系列的问题在我脑子里转来转去。 我和我的几个朋友一起讨论过这个话题。有的朋友特别担心，觉得国家负债这么高，是不是意味着经济 出问题了？有的朋友则觉得，不用担心，这是发展中国家的正常现象，没什么大不了的。还有的朋友想 不太明白，为什么这个数字这么高，这些钱到底被花到了哪儿。 为了搞清楚这个问题，我花了一些时间去深入了解国债、地方债、企业债等各种债务的情况。了解以后 才发现，这个事儿远比看起来要复杂。我们不能看到一个大数字就吓坏了，而是要理解这个数字后面的 真实含义。 先从什么是国债开始说起。国债，简单地说，就是国家向各个机构和个人借的钱。国家需要钱的时候， 就会向社会发行债券，把这些债券卖给投资者。投资者买了国债以后，每年会获得一定的利息。到了期 限，国家就要把本金还给投资者。这个过程，就是国债的全部生命周期。 那国家为什么要借钱呢？很多人可能会觉得奇怪，国家又不像个人一样，为什么还要 ...

| | | 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 | | | | | 大类资产早报 | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/31 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.123 | 4.497 | 3.562 | 2.854 | 3.548 | 3.286 | 0.276 | 3.439 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.059 | 6.197 | 1.851 | - | 4.746 | 4.381 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利 ...

日本政府表示，该税项收入将用于改善旅行基础设施和促进区域旅游资源的开发。此举引发本国公众强 烈质疑：根据现行政策，日本人出国时同样需要缴纳离境税。如果该税主要用于治理访日游客激增带来 的过度旅游问题，为何本国公民也要被迫分摊这笔治理费用？ 据环球时报报道，日本政府计划自明年7月起显著提高针对所有出境旅客的征税标准，并拟于未来增设 入境审查费，成为近期舆论关注的焦点。 离境税和签证手续费上调，仅是当前日本财政承压的一个缩影。由于日本计划于明年推出史上规模最大 的财政预算，社保支出和国防开支激增，将不得不通过大规模发债来填补预算。日本《京都新闻》《神 户新闻》等媒体均对政府的财政运作表达强烈质疑：即便税收连创新高，政府明年仍需举债近30万亿日 元，目前日本的国债已达日本GDP的两倍。这种持续的财政扩张正引发市场恐慌，加剧日元的汇率下行 压力。 日本政府在近日召开的会议上已敲定上调"国际旅客出发税"的方案。自明年7月起，每位出境旅客的征 收标准将由现行的1000日元（100日元约合4.5元人民币）大幅提至3000日元，在购买国际航班机票时自 动征收。日本政府预测2026财年该项税收收入将增至1300亿日元，是上一财 ...

2025年12月30日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.476 | 102.528 | 105.840 | 105.845 | 107.975 | 107.990 | 111.82 | 112.04 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.548 | 102.596 | 106.050 | 106.025 | 108.300 | 108.320 | 112.96 | 113.19 | | | 涨跌 | -0.072 | -0.068 | -0.210 | -0.180 | -0.325 | -0.330 | -1.14 ...

研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/23 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.165 | 4.535 | 3.611 | 2.897 | 3.598 | 3.332 | 0.307 | 3.482 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.077 | 6.184 | 1.835 | - | 4.794 | 4.475 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.508 | 3.736 | 2.147 | 1.113 | 2.262 | 1.356 | - | 4.075 | | ...

| | | | 冠 | | --- | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/12/22 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.148 | 4.523 | 3.611 | 2.894 | 3.584 | 3.325 | 0.307 | 3.466 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.016 | 6.179 | 1.826 | - | 4.748 | 4.400 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.484 | 3.746 | 2.153 | 1.087 | 2.2 ...