研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四国债期货主力合约开盘多数低开，早盘连续下行，午后横向波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2606 下跌 0.53%，10 年期 T2606 下跌 0.10%，5 年期 TF2606 下跌 0.08%，2 年期 TS2606 下跌 0.03%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 3205 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 4000 亿元逆 回购到期，合计当日净回笼 795 亿元。 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日小幅下行，DR001 全天加 权平均为 1.37%，上一交易日加权平均 1.38%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.48%，上一 交易日加权平均 1.51%。 | | 宏观与金 融 | 国债 | TL、T、 TF、TS （震荡） | 3、现券市场：周四银行间国债现券收盘收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "slightly bullish with oscillations" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inflation level in China showed a mild rebound in January. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month. The official manufacturing PMI and service business activity index in January were both below the boom - bust line, indicating a mild economic situation. The central bank's continuous support for the capital market to maintain liquidity, along with the government's fiscal policy and the central bank governor's statement on potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, support the long side of bonds. The bond futures are expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Thursday, the main contract of 30 - year bond futures TL2603 fell 0.03%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02%. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed up 0.46% with a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day's 2.00 trillion yuan [1][2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: The central bank conducted 1665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday. With 1185 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 4480 billion yuan. On February 13, 2026, the central bank will conduct 10000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a 6 - month term [1] - Capital market: The overnight interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Thursday decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.36% (1.37% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.53% (1.54% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly on Thursday. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.04 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year fell 0.48 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year fell 1.01 BP to 1.79%, and the 30 - year rose 0.05 BP to 2.25% [1] - Diplomatic and trade news: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that President Xi Jinping reiterated the invitation to President Trump to visit China in early April, and the two sides are in communication. The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the US maintain close communication at all levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The mild economic situation in January and the central bank's measures to maintain liquidity support the long side of bonds. The Ministry of Finance stated that the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure in 2026 will remain at a necessary level, and the central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

共同社报道，日本债务规模已超其经济总量的两倍。由于社会保障、防务及债务偿还成本不断膨胀，日 本债务规模面临上行压力。此外，日本首相高市早苗承诺扩大支出，令该国财政前景雪上加霜。 报道说，随着市场普遍预期日本央行将继续加息，长期借贷成本将呈上升趋势。一旦利率上升，国债利 息支出会大幅增加，令日本政府财政状况恶化。（完）（卜晓明） 【新华社微特稿】日本财务省10日公布的数据显示，截至2025年底，日本国债、借款及政府短期证券合 计的国家债务达1342.17万亿日元（约合8.77万亿美元），较2024年底增加24.54万亿日元（1602.6亿美 元），创历史新高。 日本债务2013年突破1000万亿日元关口，此后持续攀升。财务省预计，到今年3月底，日本债务总额将 达到1473.5万亿日元（9.6万亿美元）。 ...

2026年2月6日，中国农业银行（601288）发布公告称，中国农业银行将于2026年2月9日发售2026年记账 式附息（一期）国债（续发）（债券简称"26附息国债01（续1）"），债券托管机构为"中央国债登记结 算有限责任公司"。 具体办理流程请参见中国农业银行网银、掌银渠道产品介绍或咨询中国农业银行营业网点及95599热 线。 为保护投资者权益，中央国债登记结算有限责任公司提供账务复核查询服务，投资者可于债券上市日 起，拨打中央国债登记结算有限责任公司余额复核查询电话，根据语音提示输入债券托管账号，核对债 券余额信息。查询电话：400-666-5000。 本次中国农业银行分销的债券代码为260001X1，分销期为2月9日，上市日为2月11日。分销期过后的上 市首日续发债券260001X1代码将变更为260001。 26附息国债01为1年期固定利率债券，剩余期限为0.93年，到期一次还本付息。发行人于2027年1月15日 （节假日顺延）偿还本金（债券面值）并支付利息。根据2026年2月6日银行间债券市场招标结果，本期 债券到期收益率为1.2661%，全价为100.04元/份。 此次债券的发售对象为全国范围内 ...

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.181%, UK 4.558%, France 3.445%, Germany 2.842%, Italy 3.468%, Spain 3.221%, Switzerland 0.244%, Greece 3.450%, Japan 2.231%, Brazil 6.180%, China 1.810%, Australia 4.857%, New Zealand 4.535% [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.452%, UK 3.653%, Germany 2.090%, Japan 1.280%, Italy 2.243%, China (1Y yield) 1.318%, Australia 4.286% [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.272, South Africa zar 16.309, Korean won 1463.600, Thai baht 31.802, Malaysian ringgit 3.948 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB are: on - shore RMB 6.938, off - shore RMB 6.941, RMB central parity rate 6.957, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.806 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6798.400, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48908.720, Nasdaq 22540.590, Mexican stock index 68858.280, UK stock index 10309.220, France CAC 8238.170, Germany DAX 24491.060, Spanish stock index 17746.300, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 53818.040, Hang Seng Index 26885.240, Shanghai Composite Index 4075.917, Taiwan stock index 31801.270, South Korean stock index 5163.570, Indian stock index 8103.879, Thai stock index 1346.230, Malaysian stock index 1731.020, Australian stock index 9154.855, emerging - economy stock index 1507.530 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3561.790, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 267.919, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 291.120, US high - yield credit - bond index 2927.790, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 413.450, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1846.721 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 4075.92, 4670.42, 3059.01, 3260.28, and 8146.11 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.64%, - 0.60%, - 0.33%, - 1.55%, and - 1.84% [4] - The PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.08, 11.64, 36.92, 27.25, and 19.00 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05, - 0.02, - 0.68, - 0.24, and - 0.09 [4] - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 is - 0.51 with a环比 change of 0.13, and that of Germany DAX is 2.42 with a环比 change of 0.04 [4] - The latest fund - flow values for A - shares, the main board, the SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 909.73, - 607.84, (not available), - 237.79, and - 34.01 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are - 447.20, - 349.02, (not available), - 69.06, and - 76.03 [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, the SME board, and ChiNext are 21762.20, 5504.33, 1479.97, 4377.19, and 5522.89 respectively, with环比 changes of - 3047.51, - 855.86, - 218.85, - 414.09, and - 1233.00 [5] - The basis and basis percentage of IF, IH, and IC are - 5.22 (- 0.11%), 2.39 (0.08%), and - 25.91 (- 0.32%) respectively [5] - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 in treasury - bond futures are 108.32, 105.91, 108.33, and 105.94 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.07%, 0.06%, 0.08%, and 0.04% [5] - The current R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M in the money market are 1.3926%, 1.5522%, and 1.5805% respectively, with daily changes of - 17.00 BP, - 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [5]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.244, UK 4.543, France 3.427, Germany 2.856, Italy 3.464, Spain 3.220, Switzerland 0.228, Greece 3.466, Japan 2.234, Brazil 6.205, China 1.814, Australia 4.814, New Zealand 4.628 [2] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.573, UK 3.735, Germany 2.096, Japan 1.242, Italy 2.148, China (1Y yield) 1.292, Australia 4.189 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.197, South Africa zar 15.773, South Korean won 1436.250, Thai baht 31.052, Malaysian ringgit 3.920 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.948, off - shore RMB 6.944, RMB central parity rate 6.976, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.815 [2] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6978.030, Dow Jones Industrial Average 49015.600, NASDAQ 23857.450, Mexican stock index 69959.730, UK stock index 10154.430, French CAC 8066.680, German DAX 24822.790, Spanish stock index 17607.600, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 53358.710, Hang Seng Index 27826.910, Shanghai Composite Index 4151.238, Taiwan stock index 32803.820, South Korean stock index 5170.810, Indian stock index 8320.556, Thai stock index 1338.900, Malaysian stock index 1756.490, Australian stock index 9250.602, emerging - economy stock index 1556.800 [2] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 267.587, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 413.360 [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4151.24 (up 0.27%), CSI 300 closing price 4717.99 (up 0.26%), SSE 50 closing price 3060.56 (up 0.27%), ChiNext closing price 3323.56 (down 0.57%), CSI 500 closing price 8601.16 (up 0.61%) [3] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 14.20 (up 0.06), SSE 50 11.67 (up 0.04), CSI 500 38.95 (up 0.25), S&P 500 27.87 (unchanged), German DAX 19.26 (down 0.06) [3] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.66 (unchanged), German DAX 2.34 (up 0.04) [3] - Fund flow: A - share latest value - 1539.22, 5 - day average - 1092.50; Main - board latest value - 940.00, 5 - day average - 842.94; ChiNext latest value - 483.26, 5 - day average - 201.04; CSI 300 latest value - 581.72, 5 - day average - 527.18 [3] Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 29654.10 (up 704.28), CSI 300 latest value 8294.14 (up 1141.46), SSE 50 latest value 2526.23 (up 502.96), Small - and - medium - sized board latest value 5584.64 (up 21.30), ChiNext latest value 7441.76 (down 8.67) [4] - Main contract basis: IF basis 14.81 (0.31%), IH basis 9.24 (0.30%), IC basis 20.84 (0.24%) [4] - Treasury - bond futures: T2303 closing price 108.21 (up 0.02%), TF2303 closing price 105.87 (up 0.03%), T2306 closing price 108.19 (up 0.02%), TF2306 closing price 105.92 (up 0.03%) [4] - Fund interest rates: R001 1.4381% (down 19.00 BP), R007 1.6122% (down 2.00 BP), SHIBOR - 3M 1.5947% (down 1.00 BP) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information in the provided document about the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the macro - financial field, policies such as central bank's monetary policy and special treasury bond issuance have an impact on the economy. In various commodity markets, different varieties have different trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, policy, and geopolitical situation [10][14][17]. - For different commodities, specific investment strategies are proposed. For example, in the black market, steel is expected to oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak; in the energy - chemical market, the price of crude oil may turn weak, while some other products have their own specific trends and trading suggestions [17][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has been issued, which will drive over 460 billion yuan of total investment. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan MLF operation on January 23, with a net injection of 70 billion yuan [10]. - The unemployment rates of different age groups in the urban labor force in December 2025 are announced. Nine departments jointly issued an opinion to promote the high - quality development of the drug retail industry [10]. - International news includes the US - Greenland agreement, the US's attempt to subvert the Cuban regime, the US GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025, inflation indicators, and the expected policy rate of the Bank of Japan [11][12]. Macro - finance Stock Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range consolidation. If there is no further increase in volume and a reverse - enveloping negative line in the near future, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The medium - term liquidity expansion may repair the tight capital situation. The ultra - long - term bonds may continue to rebound due to the decline in risk appetite [15]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The macro - policy has limited short - term impact on demand. The supply of the steel industry is relatively stable. The fundamentals of steel are acceptable, but the downstream demand is weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is expected to oscillate. Steel will oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and decline in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream procurement and iron - making output [17]. Ferroalloys - The medium - term price fluctuation center of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is slightly rising. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips in the medium term, and hold the short positions of manganese silicon established at high levels [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The demand is good, the supply is disturbed, and the market sentiment is rising. In the short term, lithium carbonate will run with a strong bias [22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and will oscillate. Wait for the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options after the rebound. Polysilicon will also oscillate, waiting for the guidance of anti -内卷 and anti - monopoly rectification plans [23][24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Zhengzhou cotton is in a short - term strong consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [25]. Sugar - Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand. Zhengzhou sugar is under pressure from external and domestic supply, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended [28]. Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken before the festival. The upside of the egg futures is limited, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [30]. Apples - The apple futures may run strongly. The market is in a game between supply support and demand restraint, and attention should be paid to the consumption performance during the Spring Festival stocking period [32]. Corn - The corn futures have large differences in the market. Pay attention to the port collecting situation, and short - term trading is recommended [33]. Red Dates - Keep an eye on the performance of the consumer market during the peak season. Currently, the market is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Pigs - The market sentiment has peaked, and the breeding side is more willing to sell. The spot price may decline, and it is advisable to short the near - month contracts on rallies [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Due to the upcoming negotiation and the increase in EIA inventory, the oil price may turn weak. However, attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [37]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly affected by geopolitical factors and will fluctuate with the oil price [38]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure, but the upstream losses may support the price. The short - term trend is strong, but the rebound space is limited [39]. Rubber - Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the upcoming suspension of overseas production may support the price. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [40]. Synthetic Rubber - The price of synthetic rubber is mainly affected by the price of butadiene and market sentiment. It may oscillate upward in the first half of the year, and it is advisable to go long on dips [42]. Methanol - The short - term inventory of methanol is decreasing smoothly, but there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and it is advisable to consider a slightly long - position configuration for the far - month contracts after the callback [43]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda spot is under pressure, but the futures can be considered from a long - position perspective [44]. Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with the oil price and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [45]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market is expected to run strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider rolling long positions at low prices or positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX and PTA [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - There is support from import costs, and the short - term downside is limited. In the long term, a light - position short - selling attempt can be considered [48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The spot price has回调, and the futures may repair the basis. The downside is limited [49]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The futures are expected to oscillate [50]. Urea - The urea futures are expected to oscillate strongly. The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [50].

Key Points - The fiscal policy in 2025 remains strong, but the effectiveness of fiscal expansion in driving economic growth has decreased, reflecting a lower "cost-effectiveness" of fiscal measures due to structural transformation, slow spending of special government bonds, and low price levels impacting fiscal efficiency [2][6][13] Group 1: Fiscal Strength and Effectiveness - The fiscal policy maintains a strong expansionary stance, with total fiscal expenditure as a percentage of GDP showing a recovery in 2025 after a decline from Q3 2022 to the end of 2024 [5][6] - The fiscal multiplier effect has weakened, with the fiscal effect coefficient dropping below 1, indicating that fiscal spending is less effective in driving GDP growth compared to 2024 [6][10] - Structural transformation has led to a shift in fiscal spending towards areas with higher capital retention and longer effectiveness cycles, reducing the expected impact on traditional infrastructure [7][10] Group 2: Changes in Policy Focus - The 2026 fiscal policy aims to maintain a stable budget deficit rate while expanding fiscal spending, with a focus on domestic demand, technological innovation, and strengthening social welfare [15][18] - The emphasis on domestic demand has shifted to a strategic priority of "domestic demand-led" growth, highlighting the importance of increasing residents' income [18][20] - The standardization of tools and policies is aimed at enhancing efficiency, with a focus on preventing local subsidy competition and creating a unified national market [20][21] Group 3: Government Debt and Financing - The issuance of government bonds in Q1 2026 is expected to remain stable compared to the previous year, with a slight increase in net financing scale [24][26] - Local government debt issuance is primarily focused on special refinancing bonds, with a more uniform pace of debt issuance anticipated in 2026 compared to 2025 [26] - The overall growth rate of government debt in Q1 2026 is expected to be lower than in the same period in 2025, indicating a more moderate approach to fiscal expansion [26]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.26%, and ChiNext Index down 1.52% [1] - Hong Kong stocks also fell, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.50% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.01% [2][3] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, sectors such as computing hardware and commercial aerospace saw adjustments, while the real estate sector experienced a notable increase [1] - In the Hong Kong market, the new consumption sector rebounded, with Pop Mart rising 10% after announcing a share buyback of HKD 251 million, marking its first buyback since early 2024 [8] Bond Market - The bond market showed a general rebound, with 30-year treasury futures up 0.23%, 10-year futures up 0.03%, 5-year futures up 0.04%, and 2-year futures up 0.02% [3][4] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures mostly declined, with lithium carbonate rising over 4%, while other commodities like焦炭 (coke), glass, and焦煤 (coking coal) fell over 2% [5]

但如果真像特朗普想得那么多好处，对美国来说也算好事，鲍威尔为啥宁被调查也不降？第一，通胀还在2.8%，离2%的目标差得远，降息等于火上浇油； 第二，美联储的独立性是几十年的奇迹，最怕成提线木偶；想着自己任期只剩四个月，5月就到期，老特就这么等不及杀鸡儆猴？唯一的解释就是特朗普要 干一件非常劲爆的大事，美联储挡道了。 根结说白了就是：特朗普把央行当自己的选举工具、提款机，鲍威尔想守点专业底线。这哪是查腐败，分明是杀鸡儆猴，逼美联储配合他搞"劲爆操作"！老 鲍偷点啤酒算啥，特朗普想偷的是整个美国的金融稳定，这波霸权操作，怕是要把自己玩进去咯！ 特朗普今天干了一件漂亮活儿，都快直接给我整笑劈了！特朗普拿刑事调查怼美联储主席鲍威尔，罪名居然是"装修盗窃"，美联储那破楼装修花了200多 亿，按照特朗普的性格大概率给老鲍安一个靠偷建材发家的罪名，难怪经济学博士出身老鲍威尔不干，太侮辱文化人了！ 其实，要说这都是借口！特朗普的真实目的就俩字：降息！为啥这么执念？38万亿国债压得喘不过气，每年利息超1万亿，降息一个点就能省4000亿，这可 是白捡的钱；中期选举要刷经济数据，低利率能让股市飘红、选民开心，还能忽悠制造业回流，自 ...