Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View No specific core view was clearly presented in the given text. Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 60.84 billion yuan in Week 37 (9/8 - 9/14) and 31.79 billion yuan in Week 38 (9/15 - 9/21). As of Week 37, the cumulative amount reached 1.11 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 490 billion yuan [1][7]. - The sum of national debt net financing and new local bond issuance was 56.22 billion yuan in Week 37 and 40.56 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative general deficit was 870 billion yuan, with a progress of 78.5%, surpassing the same period last year [1][7]. National Debt - National debt net financing was 41.56 billion yuan in Week 37 and 28.71 billion yuan in Week 38. The total national debt net financing for the year is 666 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 530 billion yuan, with a progress of 78.9%, exceeding the average of the past five years [10]. Local Debt - Local debt net financing was 19.28 billion yuan in Week 37 and 3.09 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 590 billion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 280 billion yuan [12]. - New general debt issuance was 1.47 billion yuan in Week 37 and 2.07 billion yuan in Week 38. The local deficit for 2025 is 80 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative new general debt was 63.55 billion yuan, with a progress of 79.4%, exceeding the same period last year [12]. - New special - purpose debt issuance was 13.19 billion yuan in Week 37 and 9.78 billion yuan in Week 38. The planned new special - purpose debt for 2025 is 440 billion yuan. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 340 billion yuan, with a progress of 77.6%, exceeding the same period last year. Special new special - purpose debt of 118.19 billion yuan has been issued, including 21.4 billion yuan since September. Land reserve special - purpose debt of 33.02 billion yuan has been issued [2][15]. Special Refinancing Bonds - Special refinancing bond issuance was 2.62 billion yuan in Week 37 and 2.14 billion yuan in Week 38. As of Week 37, the cumulative amount was 196 billion yuan, with a issuance progress of 98% [2][30]. Urban Investment Bonds - Urban investment bond net financing was 1.55 billion yuan in Week 37 and is expected to be - 0.7 billion yuan in Week 38. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is 1.02 trillion yuan [3][33].

Group 1 - The article discusses the prediction that the future global power dynamics will include the United States, China, India, and the European Union as the top four influential entities [1][3] - The European Union, despite being a collective of 27 countries, faces internal challenges and is seen as struggling to maintain its position among the top powers [3][5] - India is highlighted for its demographic advantage with a young population and a GDP of $3.85 trillion, but it faces significant challenges in its business environment, including bureaucratic hurdles and trade tensions [5][6] Group 2 - The United States is experiencing economic difficulties, with a projected GDP decline of 0.3% in Q1 2025 and a national debt exceeding $36.6 trillion, which translates to over $100,000 per citizen [5][6] - China achieved a GDP of over 130 trillion yuan, making it the second-largest economy globally, but still lags behind the U.S. in per capita GDP, which is over $70,000 [6][7] - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing gaps in technology and manufacturing capabilities, suggesting that true strength comes from self-improvement rather than external validation [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The previous trading day saw a general decline in Treasury bond futures prices, with the T2512 contract down 0.04% and a decrease in open interest [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, with the SHIBOR 7 - day rate down 0.7bp, the DR007 rate down 0.43bp, and the GC007 rate down 1bp [2]. - Yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed trends, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield rising 0.01bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread at 36.2bp [2]. - In the overseas market, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield rose 3bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield fell 1.8bp [2]. - Treasury bond futures prices have stabilized as market liquidity has eased and the equity market has fluctuated more. However, the stock - bond seesaw effect continues, and attention should be paid to the impact of equity market changes on bond market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume Data**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts such as TS2512, TS2603, TF2512, etc. declined, with decreases ranging from - 0.01% to - 0.20%. Open interest for some contracts decreased (e.g., T2512 decreased by 1747), while others increased (e.g., TS2603 increased by 193). Trading volumes varied among different contracts [2]. - **Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts were 0.054, 0.100, 0.265, and 0.330 respectively, with some spreads changing compared to the previous values [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, and GC007 rates decreased, while GC001 rate increased [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.01bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 36.2bp [2]. - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: In the overseas market, US and German Treasury bond yields generally rose, while Japanese Treasury bond yields fell. The 10Y US Treasury bond yield rose 5bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield rose 3bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield fell 1.8bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On September 2, the central bank conducted 255.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion yuan. In August, MLF had a net injection of 300 billion yuan, PSL had a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and the open - market buy - out reverse repurchase had a net injection of 300 billion yuan [3]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced four tax - exemption measures to support the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash income transferred to the social security fund, which will directly increase the investment return rate of the social security fund [3]. - **Real Estate Policy**: The work of using local government special bond funds to acquire idle land has continued to advance. As of the end of August, the number of idle land parcels to be acquired was 4,574, with an area of over 2.3 billion square meters, and the total amount of land to be acquired was over 610 billion yuan, with an actual issuance of about 175.2 billion yuan [3]. - **Overseas News**: US President Trump announced an appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case. The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, lower than the market expectation of 49 [3]. Industry Information - **Money Market Interest Rates**: On September 2, most money market interest rates showed mixed trends. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank market for the 1 - day variety increased by 0.19BP, and the 7 - day variety decreased by 0.79BP [3]. - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: US Treasury bond yields generally rose. The 2 - year yield rose 1.85bp, the 3 - year yield rose 3.10bp, the 5 - year yield rose 2.77bp, the 10 - year yield rose 3.50bp, and the 30 - year yield rose 3.70bp [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates a decline in U.S. Treasury futures, with the 10-year Treasury futures dropping by 3 points and the 30-year Treasury futures falling by 12 points [1]

Core Insights - The rapid growth of the first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Bond ETFs, which surpassed 100 billion in scale, is driven by several factors, including the alignment with national policies supporting technological innovation and the increasing demand for stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2] Group 1: Factors Driving Growth - Sci-Tech Bonds serve as a new financing tool that supports the development of technological innovation, aligning with the country's focus on enhancing productivity [1] - The Sci-Tech Bond ETF meets current investor needs by combining policy tool attributes with the theme of technological innovation, offering growth potential and policy benefits [1] - In a low-interest-rate market, investors are seeking stable returns, and Sci-Tech Bonds provide greater elasticity compared to ordinary corporate and industrial bonds, offering a yield advantage [1] Group 2: Market Capacity and Characteristics - The overall market capacity for Sci-Tech Bonds is significant, with the CSI AAA Sci-Tech Bond Index exceeding 1 trillion, indicating potential for further expansion [2] - Sci-Tech Bonds are classified as credit bonds, which carry credit risk, unlike government bonds that are free from default risk. This credit risk premium differentiates them from government bonds [3] - The duration characteristics of Sci-Tech Bonds are typically shorter, and they offer higher coupon yields, making them attractive for investors anticipating interest rate declines [3] Group 3: Unique Attributes of Underlying Assets - The underlying assets of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs focus on supporting high-quality development in the technology sector, with funds primarily directed towards technological innovation [4] - The issuance of Sci-Tech Bonds has seen rapid growth, with the primary market exceeding 2 trillion, reflecting a 40% increase since the beginning of the year [4] - Historical data indicates that while the duration of credit bond indices is longer, the Sci-Tech Bond index, focused on growth, exhibits greater elasticity, presenting a unique advantage [4] Group 4: Impact of Funding on Investment - Sci-Tech Bonds inherently support the development of cutting-edge fields such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and high-end manufacturing, which have long-term financing needs [5] - The expanding financing demand in these sectors supports the growth of the primary market for Sci-Tech Bonds, thereby increasing investor interest in the secondary market [5] - Sci-Tech Bonds can enhance the elasticity of investment portfolios, making them suitable for long-term allocation by investors with risk tolerance [5]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the total revenue growth rate for the fiscal accounts was 0%, improving from -0.6% in the previous period[2] - The total expenditure growth rate was 9.3%, up from 8.9%, marking the highest level since September 2022[2] - Tax revenue showed a recovery with a monthly growth rate of 5%, compared to 1% in the previous month, while non-tax revenue fell to 2% from 3.7%[5] Group 2: Key Revenue Components - Stamp duty revenue increased significantly by 20.7%, with securities transaction stamp duty surging by 62.5%[15] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July reached 1.9636 million, a 71% increase year-on-year[15] - Land transfer revenue in July was 267.9 billion yuan, down from 299 billion yuan, with a cumulative growth rate of -4.6%[18] Group 3: Expenditure Insights - The cumulative expenditure growth rate for the first seven months was 3.4%, with a monthly growth rate of 3%[21] - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a cumulative expenditure growth rate of 31.7% for the second fiscal account, reaching 42.4% in July[22] - The total issuance of special local government bonds was 2.78 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 63.1%[22] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, policy implementation, and a significant downturn in the real estate market[26] - The sustainability of revenue growth is uncertain, particularly if budgetary income weakens alongside declining land revenue, which may lead to increased national debt issuance in Q4 2023[1]

Group 1 - The ETF market showed mixed performance on the 18th, with the rare earth ETFs leading the gains [2] - Efund's rare earth ETF (159715) rose by 6.31%, while another rare earth ETF (159713) increased by 6.22% [2] - The Southern AI ETF (159382) on the ChiNext board gained 5.87% [2] Group 2 - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Growth ETF (588070) experienced the largest decline, falling by 4.83% [2] - The NASDAQ Technology ETF (159509) decreased by 1.93% [2] - The 30-Year Treasury ETF (511090) dropped by 1.26% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that special bonds are crucial for driving effective investment, with a cumulative issuance of 11.35 trillion yuan since the 20th National Congress, supporting around 90,000 projects in areas like infrastructure and public welfare [1] - As of August 2, 2023, local governments have issued a total of 21,710.65 billion yuan in new local bonds this year, with special bonds accounting for 17,772.69 billion yuan, representing 45.57% of the annual quota of 39,000 billion yuan [1] - Compared to the same period last year, the issuance of new local bonds has slowed down, with last year's total at 30,504.62 billion yuan, where special bonds made up 25,708.30 billion yuan, or 67.65% of the annual quota of 38,000 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance aims to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds, focusing on new infrastructure and industries, with allocations favoring regions with well-prepared projects [2] - A recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need to speed up the issuance of special bonds and utilize long-term special treasury bonds to support major national strategies and enhance safety capabilities in key areas [2] - It is expected that the issuance of local government bonds will significantly accelerate in the next three months, with an estimated issuance of around 20,000 billion yuan in August and September, maintaining levels similar to the previous year [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3567.02 points, up by 0.20% [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10960.75 points, down by 0.28% [1][2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2311.27 points, down by 0.49% [1][2] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4054.75 points, unchanged [1][2] - The STAR 50 Index closed at 1041.89 points, up by 0.49% [1][2] - The CSI 500 Index closed at 6211.46 points, down by 0.03% [1][2] - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 6674.95 points, up by 0.07% [1][2] Year-to-Date Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 6.42% year-to-date [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 5.24% year-to-date [2] - The CSI 300 Index has increased by 3.05% year-to-date [2] - The ChiNext Index has increased by 7.92% year-to-date [2] - The CSI 500 Index has increased by 8.48% year-to-date [2] - The CSI 1000 Index has increased by 12.04% year-to-date [2] - The CSI 2000 Index has increased by 21.65% year-to-date [2] - The Wande Micro Demand Stock Index has increased by 51.96% year-to-date [2]

Core Viewpoint - A high-level U.S. business delegation is set to visit China, signaling potential discussions to restart commercial negotiations amid ongoing trade tensions [5][6][7]. Group 1: U.S.-China Business Delegation - The delegation is organized by the U.S.-China Business Council and led by Raj Subramaniam, CEO of FedEx, with confirmed participation from Boeing executives [5]. - This visit marks the highest-level business delegation sent to China since the new round of tariffs initiated by President Trump in April [7]. Group 2: U.S.-EU Trade Agreement - A new trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU has been reached, which includes a 15% tariff on EU products imported to the U.S. and a commitment from the EU to invest an additional $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy [2][9]. Group 3: U.S. Tariff Policy - U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo announced that the U.S. will not extend the tariff deadline set for August 1 [3][11]. Group 4: U.S. National Debt - The U.S. national debt has surged to a record $36.7 trillion, prompting the Treasury Department to allow citizens to make voluntary donations via Venmo and PayPal to help reduce the debt [16]. - The donation program, which has been in place since 1996, has raised only $6.73 million, representing a mere 0.0002% of the current national debt [16].