Group 1 - The rise in Treasury yields, particularly as the 10-year yield approaches 5%, is influencing professional money managers to consider reallocating funds from stocks to guaranteed Treasury yields, especially in a declining market environment [1] - Professional investors prioritize overall annual returns over market fluctuations discussed on social media, indicating a potential shift towards fixed income instruments if the market signals such a move [2] - The ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran are impacting oil prices, with uncertainty surrounding the conflict affecting investor sentiment and market stability [3][4] Group 2 - Major indexes are currently at their 200-day moving averages, which is not indicative of panic but rather a normal market response involving position-trimming and profit-taking [5] - The potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East, along with sustained high oil prices (Brent crude over $100 per barrel), could lead to broader economic impacts, starting from the Middle East and affecting Asia and Europe before reaching the U.S. [5] - Inflation is being closely monitored, with concerns likely to arise if a major central bank decides to raise interest rates in response to economic conditions [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the performance of global asset markets including 10 - year and 2 - year government bonds of major economies, exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies, major economy stock indices, and credit bond indices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year government bonds**: The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Greece, Japan, Brazil, China, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are 4.345, 4.915, 3.709, 3.002, 3.875, 3.513, 0.382, 3.855, 2.304, 6.298, 1.840, N/A, 5.118, 4.883 respectively [3] - **2 - year government bonds**: The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in the US, UK, Germany, Japan, Italy, China (1 - year yield), South Korea, and Australia are 3.854, 4.412, 2.571, 1.293, 2.827, 1.250, N/A, 4.817 respectively [3] - **Exchange rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, South Korean won, Thai baht, and Malaysian ringgit are 5.235, N/A, 16.820, 1488.350, 33.000, N/A respectively. The latest on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates are 6.884, the RMB central parity rate is 6.904, and the 12 - month NDF is 6.728 [3] - **Stock indices**: The latest values of major economy stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Index, NASDAQ, Mexican index, UK index, French CAC, German DAX, Spanish index, Russian index, Nikkei, Hang Seng Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Taiwan index, South Korean index, Indian index, Thai index, Malaysian index, Australian index, and emerging - economy index are 6581.000, 46208.470, 21946.760, 64370.950, 9894.150, 7726.200, 22653.860, 16888.200, N/A, 51515.490, 24382.470, 3813.283, 32722.500, 5405.750, N/A, 1397.340, N/A, 8552.642, 1419.950 respectively [3] - **Credit bond indices**: The latest values of US investment - grade, euro - area investment - grade, emerging - economy investment - grade, US high - yield, euro - area high - yield, and emerging - economy high - yield credit bond indices are 3518.560, 263.418, 286.650, 2900.390, 404.460, 1807.438 respectively [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3813.28, 4418.00, 2792.33, 3235.22, 7440.75 respectively, with percentage changes of - 3.63%, - 3.26%, - 3.17%, - 3.49%, - 4.11% [4] - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are 13.61, 11.11, 33.60, 25.75, 16.36 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.41, - 0.33, - 1.48, 0.29, 0.20 [4] - **Risk premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 and German DAX are - 0.46, 3.11 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.01, - 0.04 [4] - **Fund flow**: The latest values of fund flow in A - shares, the main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 1165.82, - 790.08, N/A, - 247.62, - 273.17 respectively, and the 5 - day average values are - 1062.59, - 815.58, N/A, - 166.72, - 172.62 respectively [4] Transaction Data of Other Markets - **Transaction amount**: The latest transaction amounts of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are 24315.18, 6717.20, 1739.93, 4659.68, 6124.16 respectively, with环比 changes of 1447.07, 562.57, 382.62, 494.51, - 471.44 [5] - **Main contract basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC are - 73.60, - 16.33, - 205.75 respectively, with basis spreads of - 1.67%, - 0.58%, - 2.77% [5] - **Treasury futures**: The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are 108.15, 105.92, 108.11, 105.72 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.10%, - 0.06%, - 0.08%, - 0.07% [5] - **Funding rates**: The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3961%, 1.4763%, 1.5182% respectively, with daily changes of - 8.00 BP, 0.00 BP, 0.00 BP [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Stock Index**: Due to increased intensity between the US and Iran, decreased market liquidity and risk appetite, and the indication from the MACD indicator, the stock index is expected to face pressure and move in a range - bound and weak - oscillating manner [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Despite the continuous decline of risk assets, it has not stimulated the improvement of sentiment in the ultra - long end. The steepened yield curve may continue due to unfriendly fundamental factors and geopolitical factors. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy - **Trend Review**: Most stocks fell, with nearly 4,800 stocks declining in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets [11]. - **Core View**: Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, along with relevant policies and economic data, may cause the stock index to face pressure. The MACD indicator shows a possible weak - oscillating trend for the market index [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Range - bound oscillation [11]. Treasury Bond Strategy - **Trend Review**: The main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all declined [12]. - **Core View**: Institutions are more interested in the medium - short end, and the steepened curve may continue due to unfriendly fundamentals and geopolitical factors. The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate [12]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Oscillating operation [12]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%. The decline was in line with seasonality, but there were also structural risks, such as a significant decline in external demand and an increasing risk of imported inflation [18]. CPI - In February 2026, the year - on - year CPI increased by 1.3%, and the month - on - month increase was 1.0%. The PPI year - on - year decline narrowed, and the month - on - month increase remained flat. After the Spring Festival, the CPI may face downward pressure, while the PPI may turn positive in March due to rising oil prices [20]. Import and Export - From January to February 2026, China's exports were $656.58 billion, imports were $442.96 billion, and the trade surplus was $213.62 billion. The high - growth of exports was mainly due to the upward cycle of global manufacturing and the "rush - to - export" effect [22]. Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to February, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment rebounded to 1.8%. Manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all improved. The growth rate of manufacturing investment rebounded to 3.1%, and infrastructure investment (including electricity) rebounded to 11.4% [25]. Social Retail - From January to February, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales rebounded to 2.8%, exceeding market expectations. Necessary consumption and catering revenue performed well during the Spring Festival, while durable - goods consumption showed differentiation [27]. Social Financing - In February 2026, the new social financing was 2.4 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 0.9 trillion yuan. The growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2% year - on - year, and M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year. Social financing increased year - on - year, mainly supported by credit and non - standard financing. The social financing growth rate may face downward pressure but is expected to remain in an appropriate range [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the Spring Festival holiday dislocation factor, service consumption and external demand have recovered, leading to better-than-expected inflation and export data in February. However, the manufacturing boom declined in February, mainly due to the phased suppression of the Spring Festival factor. The economic growth target has been lowered, and the overall fiscal and monetary policies are in line with market expectations, having a neutral impact on the bond market. Overseas, the conflict between the US and Iran continues, increasing market risk aversion, and rising oil prices further suppress the Fed's monetary easing expectations. The economic recovery's sustainability needs further observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy**: In February, inflation and export data exceeded expectations, mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday dislocation factor and the recovery of service consumption and external demand. The manufacturing boom declined in February, with both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry weakening. The government work report was released, with the economic growth target lowered, and the overall fiscal and monetary policies were in line with market expectations, having a neutral impact on the bond market. Overseas, the US-Iran conflict continued, increasing market risk aversion, and rising oil prices further suppressed the Fed's monetary easing expectations [10] - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 277.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash time deposits maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 251.1 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.47% [11] - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10-year Treasury yield closed at 1.81%, up 2.98 BP week-on-week; the 30-year Treasury yield closed at 2.35%, up 6.75 BP week-on-week. The latest 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.27%, up 12.00 BP week-on-week [11] - **Summary**: Fundamentally, affected by the Spring Festival dislocation factor, the manufacturing boom declined in February, with both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry weakening. At the same time, inflation and import and export data in February exceeded expectations, showing a structural differentiation in economic momentum. Overall, the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed, domestic demand still needs the stabilization of residents' income and policy support, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The continuation of the Iran geopolitical conflict, combined with the year-on-year rebound of China's inflation data in February, may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market's rhythm still needs to pay attention to the impact of the stock market and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The bond market is recommended to adopt a long strategy on dips in the medium and long term [11][12][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **T Contract**: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the T current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the T main contract [16][17] - **TL Contract**: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TL current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TL main contract [22][23] - **TF Contract**: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TF current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TF main contract [25][26] - **TS Contract**: The report presents the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TS current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TS main contract [27][28] - **TS and TF Positions**: The report presents the closing price and position volume of the TS and TF contracts [32][34] - **T and TL Positions**: The report presents the closing price and position volume of the T and TL contracts [37] 3.3 Main Economic Data - **Domestic Economy** - **GDP and PMI**: In the fourth quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%, and the annual economic growth maintained resilience. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value; the service PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value to 49.7%, showing a differentiation between the manufacturing and service industries [42] - **Manufacturing PMI Sub-items**: In February 2026, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry weakened. The production index decreased by 1.0 percentage points month-on-month to 49.6%, and new orders decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6 [43][48] - **Price Index**: In January and February, CPI increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and core CPI increased by 1.8% year-on-year; PPI was -0.9% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, in February, CPI increased by 1.0% month-on-month, core CPI increased by 0.7% month-on-month, and PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month. The year-on-year increase in CPI was mainly due to the Spring Festival dislocation factor and the long holiday driving up service consumption prices. The year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed, with the prices of production materials continuing to recover, and the price decline narrowing driven by the increase in prices of some international commodities [51] - **Export Data**: From January to February, China's export data was stronger than expected, mainly due to the holiday dislocation factor and the improvement of external demand. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 21.8% year-on-year, and imports increased by 19.8% year-on-year. In terms of countries, China's export growth rate to the US was still weak from January to February, while the export growth rate to ASEAN remained high, and the export growth rate to non-US regions maintained resilience [54] - **Industrial and Consumption Data**: In December, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.2%, and the growth rate of industrial production rebounded. The year-on-year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in December was 0.9%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the growth rate of social retail sales decreased due to the high base and diminishing marginal utility of durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances [57] - **Investment and Real Estate Data**: From January to December, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -3.8%, and the growth rate of real estate investment was -17.2%, with the real estate market continuing to adjust. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment excluding electricity was -2.2%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 0.6%, with the growth rate slowing down. In December, the month-on-month growth rate of second-hand housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities was -0.7%, and the year-on-year growth rate was -6.1%. In December, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 587.7 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 20.4%, and the cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.5989 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.0%. In December, the cumulative year-on-year decline of the completion data was 18.16%, and the new housing sales data in 30 large and medium-sized cities recently recovered, but the sustainability of the real estate improvement needs to be observed [61][64][67] - **Foreign Economy** - **US Economy**: In the fourth quarter, the current-price annualized GDP of the US was 3.149 trillion US dollars, with an actual year-on-year growth rate of 2.23% and a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 1.40%. In February, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. In December, the order amount of durable goods in the US was 319.6 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 10.00%. In February, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. In February, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 56.1 [70][73][76] - **EU Economy**: In the fourth quarter, the GDP of the EU increased by 1.5% year-on-year and 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. In January, the CPI of the eurozone increased by 1.7% year-on-year and decreased by 0.5% month-on-month. In February, the manufacturing PMI of the eurozone was 50.8, and the service PMI was 51.9 [76][79] 3.4 Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In February, the growth rate of M1 was 5.9%, and the growth rate of M2 was 9.0%. The growth rate of M1 rebounded in February. The social financing increment in February was 2.38 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 0.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 195.6 billion yuan year-on-year [84] - **Social Financing Sub-items**: In February, the year-on-year growth rate of government bonds in the social financing sub-items decreased, and the financing of the real sector rebounded. The social financing growth rate of the household and enterprise sectors in February was 6.1%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 16.6% [87] - **MLF and Reverse Repurchase**: In February, the MLF balance was 7.25 trillion yuan, and the net MLF investment was 300 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 277.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash time deposits maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 251.1 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.47% [90] 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: The report presents the latest interest rates, daily changes, weekly changes, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [93] - **Interest Rate Trends**: The report presents the trends of Treasury bond yields, interbank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and the yields of Treasury bonds in the UK, France, Germany, and Italy [97][98][102] - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents the trends of the Fed's target interest rate and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [103]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Not mentioned in the provided content Summary by Directory Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: Latest yields for major economies include 4.158% in the US, 4.552% in the UK, 3.443% in France, 2.834% in Germany, 3.524% in Italy, 3.290% in Spain, 0.351% in Switzerland, 3.514% in Greece, 2.171% in Japan, 6.076% in Brazil, 1.817% in China, and 4.847% in Australia [1] - **2 - year Treasury Bonds**: Latest yields are 3.593% in the US, 3.860% in the UK, 2.248% in Germany, 1.245% in Japan, 2.426% in Italy, 1.271% in China (1Y yield), and 4.433% in Australia [1] - **Dollar - Emerging Economy Currency Exchange Rates**: Latest rates are 5.159 for the dollar against the Brazilian real, 16.291 against the South African rand, 1466.050 against the South Korean won, 31.615 against the Thai baht, and 3.924 against the Malaysian ringgit. The on - shore RMB is 6.869, the off - shore RMB is 6.879, the RMB central parity rate is 6.898, and the RMB 12 - month NDF is 6.748 [1] - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: Latest values are 6781.480 for the S&P 500, 47706.510 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 22697.100 for the Nasdaq, 67397.940 for the Mexican index, 10412.240 for the UK index, 8057.360 for the French CAC, 23968.630 for the German DAX, 17445.000 for the Spanish index, 54248.390 for the Nikkei, 25959.900 for the Hang Seng Index, 4123.138 for the Shanghai Composite Index, 32771.870 for the Taiwan index, 5532.590 for the South Korean index, 7440.913 for the Indian index, 1405.760 for the Thai index, 1701.680 for the Malaysian index, 8924.227 for the Australian index, and 1504.330 for the emerging economies' index [1] - **Credit Bond Indices**: Latest values are 3561.750 for the US investment - grade credit bond index, 266.918 for the euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, 290.890 for the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index, 2928.260 for the US high - yield credit bond index, 410.440 for the euro - zone high - yield credit bond index, and 1842.996 for the emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index [1] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices are 4123.14 for A - shares, 4674.76 for the CSI 300, 2981.84 for the SSE 50, 3306.14 for the ChiNext, and 8410.30 for the CSI 500. The percentage changes are 0.65%, 1.28%, 0.64%, 3.04%, and 1.58% respectively [2] - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values are 14.15 for the CSI 300, 11.48 for the SSE 50, 37.76 for the CSI 500, 26.51 for the S&P 500, and 17.90 for the German DAX. The环比 changes are 0.00, - 0.06, 0.58, - 0.06, and 0.33 respectively [2] - **Risk Premium**: The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate is - 0.39 for the S&P 500 and 2.75 for the German DAX. The环比 changes are - 0.06 and - 0.09 respectively [2] - **Fund Flows**: The latest values are 349.57 for A - shares, 3.60 for the main board, 216.78 for the ChiNext, and 93.77 for the CSI 300. The 5 - day average values are - 119.52 for A - shares, - 182.70 for the main board, 44.93 for the ChiNext, and - 11.84 for the CSI 300 [2] Other Trading Data - **Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amount for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 23978.88, with a环比 change of - 2496.57. For the CSI 300, it is 1217.62 with a环比 change of - 495.95; for the SSE 50, it is 4641.20 with a环比 change of - 423.03; for the small - and medium - sized board, it is 6449.02 with a环比 change of - 52.77 [3] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis for IF is - 10.76 with a basis amplitude of - 0.23%, for IH it is - 0.44 with a basis amplitude of - 0.01%, and for IC it is - 16.70 with a basis amplitude of - 0.20% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Closing prices are 108.34 for T2303, 105.93 for TF2303, 108.31 for T2306, and 105.98 for TF2306. The percentage changes are - 0.02%, - 0.04%, - 0.01%, and - 0.00% respectively [3] - **Funding Rates**: R001 is 1.3917% with a daily change of - 11.00 BP, R007 is 1.5029% with a daily change of 0.00 BP, and SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5492% with a daily change of 0.00 BP [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fell in the morning session, and rebounded slightly in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.04%, the 10 - year T2606 remained flat, the 5 - year TF2606 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.01% [1] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 39.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 34.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 5.2 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained flat compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.44%, compared with 1.45% on the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.17 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year yield declined 0.44 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year yield rose 0.01 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield rose 0.36 BP to 2.33% [1] - Trade data: In US dollars, China's exports from January to February increased 21.8% year - on - year, with an estimated increase of 7.3%, and an increase of 6.6% in December last year; imports from January to February increased 19.8% year - on - year, with an estimated increase of 6.9%, and an increase of 5.7% in December last year; the trade surplus from January to February was 213.62 billion US dollars [1] - Warning: ExxonMobil's chief economist Tyler Goodspeed warned that the Strait of Hormuz may remain closed for a longer period than the market expected [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In US dollars, China's exports from January to February increased 21.8% year - on - year, with an estimated increase of 7.3%, and an increase of 6.6% in December last year. China's CPI in February rose 1.3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 0.9%; PPI in February decreased 0.9% year - on - year, better than the market expectation of a 1.2% decline. The overall inflation level in China in February rebounded more than expected. The core CPI in February rose 0.7% month - on - month, and PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month [1] - The US President said on Monday that the war was basically over and was considering controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Market panic dissipated, risk assets counterattacked strongly, and crude oil prices dropped significantly. On Tuesday, the Wind All - A Index opened higher, fluctuated at a high level throughout the day, and rose slowly, closing with a long - bare - headed and bare - footed small阳线, up 1.58%, with a trading volume of 2.42 trillion yuan, a slight contraction compared with 2.67 trillion yuan on the previous trading day. Treasury bond futures stabilized in the late trading on Tuesday [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures generally declined, and they may experience short - term volatility. It is necessary to continue monitoring the trend of the A - share market. For trading - type investments, band operations are recommended [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures mostly opened lower, with continuous declines in the morning session and horizontal fluctuations in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 dropped 0.53%, the 10 - year T2606 fell 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2606 declined 0.08%, and the 2 - year TS2606 decreased 0.03% [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market slightly decreased compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.37% (1.38% in the previous trading day), and that of DR007 was 1.48% (1.51% in the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year government bond rose 0.49 basis points to 1.37%, the 5 - year increased 1.31 basis points to 1.56%, the 10 - year climbed 1.30 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year jumped 4.01 basis points to 2.30% [1] - AI model data: From the 9th - 15th, the weekly call volume of Chinese models on the OpenRouter platform reached 4.12 trillion Tokens, surpassing that of US models for the first time. From the 16th - 22nd, the weekly call volume of Chinese models soared to 5.16 trillion Tokens, a 127% increase in three weeks, while that of US models dropped to 2.7 trillion Tokens. Four of the top - five models on the platform are from Chinese manufacturers, accounting for 85.7% of the total call volume of the top 5. The users of this platform are mainly overseas developers, with US users accounting for 47.17% and Chinese developers only 6.01% [1] Market Logic - In January, the social financing scale in China increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan and an increase of 165.4 billion yuan year - on - year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 283.1 billion yuan [1][2] - In January, RMB loans under the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan but a year - on - year decrease of 420 billion yuan [1][2] - In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [2] - In January, China's overall inflation level moderately rebounded. The core CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose by 0.4% month - on - month [2] - In January, the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderate economic situation in January [2] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases" and the guarantee for key areas "only strengthens" [2] - The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to keep the overall social financing cost at a low level, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [2] - On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day, closing with a small T - line, up 0.21% for the day. The trading volume was 2.56 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the previous trading day's 2.48 trillion yuan [2] Trading Strategies - For trading - type investments, band operations are recommended [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "slightly bullish with oscillations" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inflation level in China showed a mild rebound in January. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month. The official manufacturing PMI and service business activity index in January were both below the boom - bust line, indicating a mild economic situation. The central bank's continuous support for the capital market to maintain liquidity, along with the government's fiscal policy and the central bank governor's statement on potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, support the long side of bonds. The bond futures are expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Thursday, the main contract of 30 - year bond futures TL2603 fell 0.03%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02%. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly throughout the day, and closed up 0.46% with a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous day's 2.00 trillion yuan [1][2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: The central bank conducted 1665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday. With 1185 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 4480 billion yuan. On February 13, 2026, the central bank will conduct 10000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a 6 - month term [1] - Capital market: The overnight interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Thursday decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.36% (1.37% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.53% (1.54% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly on Thursday. The 2 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.04 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year fell 0.48 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year fell 1.01 BP to 1.79%, and the 30 - year rose 0.05 BP to 2.25% [1] - Diplomatic and trade news: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that President Xi Jinping reiterated the invitation to President Trump to visit China in early April, and the two sides are in communication. The Ministry of Commerce stated that China and the US maintain close communication at all levels through the economic and trade consultation mechanism [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The mild economic situation in January and the central bank's measures to maintain liquidity support the long side of bonds. The Ministry of Finance stated that the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure in 2026 will remain at a necessary level, and the central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [1][2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's national debt is projected to reach a record high of 134.217 trillion yen (approximately 877 billion USD) by the end of 2025, increasing by 24.54 trillion yen (approximately 160.26 billion USD) from the end of 2024 [1] Group 1: Debt Overview - Japan's debt has surpassed twice its economic output, indicating significant fiscal pressure due to rising costs in social security, defense, and debt repayment [1] - The Ministry of Finance anticipates that Japan's total debt will reach 147.35 trillion yen (approximately 960 billion USD) by the end of March this year [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The commitment by Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide to expand spending further complicates the country's fiscal outlook [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates, leading to an increase in long-term borrowing costs [1] - Rising interest rates will significantly increase the interest expenses on government bonds, worsening the fiscal situation for the Japanese government [1]

Group 1 - China Agricultural Bank will issue a new bond, the 2026 Book-Entry Interest-Bearing National Bond (Phase 1), on February 9, 2026, with a maturity of 0.93 years and a fixed interest rate of 1.2661% [1] - The bond will be available for subscription by individual investors, financial institutions, and non-financial institutions across the country, with a minimum subscription unit of one bond (face value of 100 yuan) [1] - The bond's full price is set at 100.04 yuan per unit, and the principal will be repaid along with interest on January 15, 2027 [1] Group 2 - The bond's trading code will change from 260001X1 during the subscription period to 260001 on the first day of trading [1] - Investors can subscribe through various channels including bank branches, online banking, and mobile banking, with no upper limit on subscription amounts [1] - Central National Debt Registration and Settlement Co., Ltd. offers a balance verification service for investors starting from the bond's listing date [2]