从绿色动力看垃圾发电增长&ROE 提升潜力：供热+发电 +财务费用下降 20250708 Q&A 垃圾发电行业的成长性如何？ 摘要 垃圾发电行业具有显著的成长性，主要体现在以下几个方面： 垃圾焚烧发电行业进入成熟期，资本开支大幅下降，通过效率提升实现 盈利增长，同时垃圾作为资源，其能源价值有提升空间，例如通过提高 每吨垃圾的发电量和转换发电供热比。 商业模式创新驱动盈利增长。天然气供热成本远高于垃圾发电，结合垃 圾处置费和特许经营权，垃圾发电在能源成本上具有显著优势，特许经 营模式下，垃圾处置费占收入 25%以上。 ToB 端供热收入即时回收现金，业绩增长同时经营性现金流大幅改善。 上市公司平均回款率约为 50%，净现比为 1.7，随着国补回款率上升， 未来现金流增益显著。 绿色动力案例显示，2025 年一季度在无新增产能情况下，业绩增长 33%，主要来源于供热量翻倍、吨上网提升及财务费用下降。污泥掺烧 业务进一步提升收益。 财务费用持续下降。2024 年财务费用较 2023 年下降约 3,000 万元， 预计 2025 年将进一步降至接近 4 亿元。公司综合融资成本较低，约为 3%左右。 通过提升供热和发电 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate and build a bottom; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The crude oil market remains in a volatile pattern. Trade negotiation progress and the decline in shale oil capital expenditure are the main concerns. US large exploration and production companies plan to cut 2025 capital expenditure by about $1.8 billion and reduce at least 20 oil drilling platforms by the second half of 2025 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - US crude oil June futures rose $1.84, or 3.17%, to $59.91 per barrel; Brent crude July futures rose $1.72, or 1.73%, to $62.84 per barrel [1] - Kazakhstan has no plan to cut oil production in May. OPEC+ agreed to a significant production increase for two consecutive months, which was driven by Saudi Arabia's desire to punish non - compliant members. Kazakhstan is considering options to comply with OPEC+ production cut obligations [1] - The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms. The UK will make concessions on importing US food and agricultural products in exchange for lower US tariffs on UK car exports [1] - US and Russian officials discussed helping Russia resume gas sales to Europe. Trump's push for peace in the Russia - Ukraine conflict increases the possibility of a thaw in gas relations [1] - ConocoPhillips cut its spending forecast by 3.5% to $124.5 billion (mid - point of its guidance range) while keeping its production forecast unchanged. US oil company executives said they need an average oil price of $65 to make a profit [1] Investment Logic - US large exploration and production companies announced a reduction of about $18 billion in the total 2025 capital expenditure plan and will reduce at least 20 oil drilling platforms by the second half of 2025. Diamondback will cut 3 drilling platforms and 1 fracturing unit in the Permian Basin in Q2 2025 to achieve a $400 million capital expenditure reduction. ConocoPhillips will cut $450 million in capital expenditure and another $200 million in operating expenditure [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate and build a bottom; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3]