投资策略专题 截至 2025 年 8 月 23 日，A 股 5423 家上市公司中，共有 1657 家已披露中报。目 前来看，2025 年 H1 的利润端表现整体优于营收，经营性现金流改善的行业正 在增加。A 股已披露公司的上半年盈利同比增速为 4.09%，较同口径下 Q1 的 2.50%有所增长；上半年累计营收同比增速为-0.14%，较同口径下 Q1 的 0.34% 略有下滑；上半年的经营性现金流净额同比增长 44.86%。 结构上，我们聚焦于 2 类问题：剔除少数影响权重极高的公司后，从更普适的视角 观测各行业的业绩表现如何？以及业绩增速较高的行业和公司中，哪些股价尚未反 映？ 盈利视角：科技制造业高增长、周期和地产建筑仍在筑底 （1）中报盈利增速较高的行业：计算机、通信、电子、机械设备、农林牧渔、 汽车、钢铁和综合；结合资产价格表现来看，正式财报发布后，股价涨幅较显著 的行业：通信、计算机、电子、汽车和综合；高盈利增速、但前期涨幅相对较小 的行业：农林牧渔和钢铁。 2025 年 08 月 24 日 中报线索：科技制造业的盈利和现金流显著增长 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 曹晋（联系人 ...

上 市 公 司 环保 2025 年 08 月 24 日 光大环境 (00257) ——收入结构持续优化，中期派息略超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 32,090 | 30,258 | 29,976 | 30,938 | 31,954 | | 同比增长率（%） | -14 | -6 | -0.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,429 | 3,377 | 3,589 | 3,810 | 4,055 | | 同比增长率（%） | -4 | -24 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 0.72 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.62 | 0.66 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 9.20 | 7.01 | 29,976 | 30,938 | 31,954 | | 市盈率 | 5.9 | 7.8 ...

Financial Performance Overview - The total revenue of the company for the first half of 2025 was 1.171 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 142 million yuan, a decrease of 14.46% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 136 million yuan, down 15.84% year-on-year [1] - In Q2, total revenue was 611 million yuan, a decline of 1.52% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 81.62 million yuan, a decrease of 2.23% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items in Q2 was 74.98 million yuan, down 8.39% year-on-year [1] Key Financial Indicators - Accounts receivable at the end of the reporting period was 511 million yuan, representing 157.25% of the latest annual net profit, indicating significant collection risk [3] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 146.96% year-on-year, mainly due to a substantial recovery of receivables [3] - Interest-bearing liabilities amounted to 1.028 billion yuan, an increase of 8.71% year-on-year [4] - The interest-bearing asset-liability ratio was 27.32%, indicating some pressure in debt management [4] - Current non-current liabilities due within one year increased by 701.96%, and long-term borrowings rose by 5495.72%, suggesting significant short-term repayment pressure [4] Cost and Expenses - Operating costs increased by 1.21% year-on-year, primarily due to rising labor costs [5] - Selling expenses, administrative expenses, and financial expenses increased by 5.59%, 12.8%, and 60.85% respectively, with the significant rise in financial expenses attributed to reduced exchange gains due to currency fluctuations [5] Industry Background - The textile and apparel industry showed resilience during the reporting period, with total exports of textiles and apparel reaching 143.978 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 0.76% [6] - The industry has reduced its reliance on single markets, despite complex international trade conditions [6] - Global monetary policy divergence has intensified exchange rate fluctuations, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts have raised logistics and energy costs, further suppressing demand recovery [6] Development Outlook - The company plans to continue adjusting orders between production bases to maintain a competitive advantage of "high quality, low cost, and short delivery time" [7] - The company aims to stabilize existing customers while actively exploring new ones [7] - There will be an acceleration in the construction of information technology and smart factories, along with strengthening the core team and overall team building [7] - The company will continue to focus on investor returns [7] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin was 28.17%, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year [8] - Net margin was 12.11%, down 14.62% year-on-year [8] - The ratio of three expenses to revenue was 11.82%, an increase of 15.72% year-on-year [8] - Earnings per share were 0.4 yuan, a decrease of 11.11% year-on-year [8] - The net asset per share was 6.86 yuan, an increase of 4.48% year-on-year [8] - Operating cash flow per share was 0.71 yuan, an increase of 158.08% year-on-year [8]

Group 1: Investment Highlights - Key recommendations include companies such as Conch Venture, Hanlan Environment, Green Power, Yongxing Co., and others, indicating a strong focus on the environmental sector [2] - Suggested companies for attention include Green Power Environmental, Deyu Water, and others, highlighting potential investment opportunities in the environmental industry [2] Group 2: Policy Tracking - The first revision of pricing regulations in 27 years aims to promote market-oriented pricing, enhancing ROE and cash flow in sectors like water, waste, and energy [3] - Strengthened environmental inspections signal a more systematic and effective regulatory approach to environmental protection in China [3] Group 3: Industry Insights - The water operations sector is expected to experience a cash flow turning point, similar to the garbage incineration sector, with significant increases in free cash flow anticipated from 2026 [4] - Price reforms are expected to reshape growth and valuation in the water sector, with potential for 2-3 times valuation increases as the market matures [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - Xingrong Environment shows a current PB of 1.16, with a projected PE of 9.8 for 2025, indicating potential for dividend increases [5] - Yuehai Investment has a PB of 1.08 and a projected PE of 10.6 for 2025, with a dividend yield of 6.2%, suggesting strong market positioning [5] - Hongcheng Environment is committed to maintaining a dividend payout of no less than 50% from 2021 to 2026, with a projected PE of 9.6 for 2025 [5] Group 5: Market Trends - The environmental sanitation equipment sector saw a 7.24% increase in new energy penetration, with a total of 38,164 sanitation vehicles sold in the first half of 2025 [5] - The average price of biodiesel remained stable, with a net profit per ton showing a significant decline [5] - In lithium battery recycling, metal prices showed mixed trends, with lithium carbonate at 71,300 (down 2.2% week-on-week) and cobalt at 276,000 (up 11.3% week-on-week) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved a proposal to dismantle two vessels, "Changlianghai" and "Changjinghai," which is expected to generate approximately 70 million yuan in disposal income, despite an anticipated total profit loss of about 18 million yuan [1] Financial Impact - The total revenue from the disposal of the two vessels is estimated to be around 30 million yuan from scrap steel and 40 million yuan from government subsidies, leading to a total expected disposal income of approximately 70 million yuan [1] - The transaction is projected to result in a total profit loss of about 18 million yuan, which will negatively impact the company's current earnings [1] Operational Considerations - The dismantling of the vessels is expected to improve the company's cash flow situation and reduce future operating costs associated with the vessels [1] - The company plans to replace the two vessels in the market, ensuring that the dismantling does not affect existing production plans [1]

Transaction Overview - The company is transferring 95% equity of Shandong Zhiyou Network Security Technology Co., Ltd. and related debts through public listing [1][2] - The transaction aims to optimize the company's asset structure, improve cash flow, and enhance asset operation efficiency [9] Transaction Details - The initial listing prices for the equity and debts were set at RMB 20,530,001, RMB 18,477,001, and RMB 16,424,001, but no qualified buyers were found [2] - The final adjusted listing price for the equity was set at RMB 15,397,501, with the equity transfer priced at RMB 1 and the debt transfer at RMB 15,397,500 [6][7] - The buyer is Shenzhen Mifan Cultural Communication Co., Ltd., which has signed a property transaction contract with the company [2][7] Financial Assessment - The valuation of the equity and debts was conducted using asset-based and hypothetical liquidation methods, with total assessed values amounting to RMB 5,100.72 million and RMB 2,052.64 million, resulting in a total decrease of RMB 3,048.08 million [6] - The company has not received the full transaction price and has not completed the property transfer procedures, indicating uncertainty in the transaction's completion [1][10] Corporate Governance - The transaction was approved by the board with a unanimous vote, and independent directors reviewed the matter prior to the board meeting [2] - The company has disclosed that there have been no other transactions with the buyer prior to this announcement, ensuring transparency [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The waste incineration power generation industry is entering a mature phase, with significant reductions in capital expenditures and a focus on efficiency improvements to drive profit growth [1][3][5] - The industry has substantial growth potential, driven by cash flow improvements and declining capital expenditures, which enhance free cash flow and dividend capacity [2][18] Core Insights and Arguments - **Revenue Growth and Cost Reduction**: Companies have achieved revenue growth and cost reductions by enhancing heating and power generation efficiency. One ton of waste generates approximately two tons of steam, which corresponds to 200 kWh of electricity, with selling steam being more profitable than selling electricity [2][10][11] - **Resource Value Enhancement**: Waste is viewed as a valuable resource with significant potential for increased energy value through improved power generation and heating conversion ratios [3][4] - **Financial Performance**: Green Power's case study shows a 33% revenue growth in Q1 2025 without new capacity, driven by a doubling of heating volume and a decrease in financial costs [1][6] - **Financial Cost Reduction**: Financial costs are expected to decrease by approximately 30 million yuan in 2024 compared to 2023, with further reductions anticipated in 2025, bringing total financial costs close to 400 million yuan [8][18] Business Model Innovations - The business model innovation in waste power generation provides a significant cost advantage over natural gas heating, with waste disposal fees accounting for over 25% of revenue under the concession model [1][6] - The ToB heating revenue model allows for immediate cash recovery, significantly improving operating cash flow [6] Cash Flow and Profitability - The average collection rate for listed companies is around 50%, with a net present value ratio of 1.7, indicating substantial future cash flow gains as national subsidy collection rates improve [6][18] - The industry is expected to exhibit a dual resonance of growth and dividends, enhancing overall profitability [7] Future Development Prospects - The industry is poised for growth due to refined management practices and technological improvements, which will enhance competitiveness and profitability [14][18] - If the industry can achieve competitive power generation levels similar to Zhongke Environmental's 35%, it could lead to over 20% profit growth across the sector [14] Company-Specific Insights - Green Power's Q1 2025 performance included total revenue of 830 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23 million yuan, with electricity generation up 3% to 1.03 billion kWh and heating volume up 97% to 225,000 tons [6] - Other companies in the industry, such as Zhongke Environmental and Huanlan Environment, are also expanding their heating capacities significantly, indicating a trend towards increased efficiency and profitability [12][18] Conclusion - The waste incineration power generation sector is characterized by improving cash flows, declining costs, and innovative business models, positioning it for sustained growth and enhanced shareholder returns [5][18]

Revenue and Profit - The company achieved total revenue of 119 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.98% compared to 93.37 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 7.1872 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.88%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.297 million yuan, up 10.36% year-on-year [1] Profit Margin and Expense Control - The company's gross margin was 25.67%, a year-on-year decrease of 24.01%, indicating pressure on cost control [2] - The net profit margin improved to 6.06%, an increase of 3.07% year-on-year, suggesting better performance in net profitability [2] - Total operating expenses (selling, administrative, and financial expenses) amounted to 17.975 million yuan, accounting for 15.16% of revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 31.35%, showing effective expense management [2] Assets and Liabilities - As of the end of the reporting period, the company's cash and cash equivalents were 252 million yuan, down 17.61% from 306 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - Accounts receivable stood at 106 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.99%, indicating a need to monitor collection efficiency as the growth rate exceeds revenue growth [3] - Interest-bearing liabilities significantly decreased to 21.6402 million yuan, down 95.04% from 437 million yuan in the same period last year, reflecting an optimized debt structure [3] Cash Flow and Shareholder Equity - The operating cash flow per share was -0.08 yuan, a substantial decline of 5686.04% compared to 0 yuan in the same period last year, indicating poor cash flow from operating activities [4] - The net asset value per share was 10.14 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.30%, suggesting an improvement in asset quality [4] Business Model and Capital Return - The company's performance is primarily driven by research and development and equity financing, necessitating further analysis of the effectiveness of these drivers [5] - The return on invested capital (ROIC) was 2.18%, indicating weak capital returns, while the net profit margin was 5.37%, suggesting average added value of products or services [5] Summary - Overall, the company achieved steady growth in revenue and profit in Q1 2025, but there are concerns regarding gross margin, cash flow, and accounts receivable that need attention [6]

Overview of Business Performance - In 2024, the total operating revenue of the company was 1.71 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.05% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 74.17 million, down 28.71% year-on-year [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 69.32 million, a decline of 26.05% year-on-year [1] - Despite the annual decline, the fourth quarter showed strong performance with total operating revenue of 463 million, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year [1] - The net profit for the fourth quarter was 29.58 million, up 85.33% year-on-year [1] - The non-recurring net profit for the fourth quarter was 30.69 million, an increase of 182.11% year-on-year [1] Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 16.38%, a decrease of 11.51% year-on-year [2] - The net profit margin was 1.16%, down 70.71% year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share were 0.08, reflecting a decline of 27.27% year-on-year [2] Expense Control and Cash Flow - Total sales, management, and financial expenses for 2024 amounted to 135 million, with a ratio of 7.88% of revenue, an increase of 6.56% year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow per share was 0.29, an increase of 36.41% year-on-year, indicating improvement in cash flow from operations [3] Accounts Receivable and Debt Situation - As of the end of 2024, accounts receivable stood at 123 million, representing 165.66% of the latest annual net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating potential cash flow pressure [4] - Interest-bearing debt was 958 million, a decrease of 7.35% year-on-year, with an interest-bearing asset-liability ratio of 26.78% [4] Main Business Composition - The main business revenue primarily comes from POF cross-linked films and POF ordinary films, accounting for 21.53% and 21.69% of main revenue, respectively [5] - The gross profit margin for POF cross-linked films was the highest at 47.56%, while the gross profit margin for thermoplastic elastomers was -0.49%, indicating a loss [5] - Revenue from overseas business accounted for 32.67%, with a gross profit margin of 31.79%, higher than domestic business [5] Development Prospects and Risks - The company continues to maintain a leading position in the fields of heat shrink films and thermoplastic elastomers, with product sales exceeding 45,000 tons in 2024, ranking first in the domestic industry and second globally [6] - The company plans to continue advancing the research and development of new equipment and processes, optimizing product structure, improving product quality, and further expanding domestic and international markets [6] - However, the company faces risks such as fluctuations in raw material prices, supplier concentration, exchange rate volatility, and talent shortages [6] Summary - Overall, the company's performance in 2024 showed a decline, but the fourth quarter was outstanding [7] - The company needs to focus on accounts receivable and cash flow status while strengthening expense control and debt management to ensure sustainable development in the future [7]

Core Insights - The company expects a 16% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with over 2.4 billion in receivables collected, leading to a 32% increase in net cash flow from operating activities [1] Financial Performance - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, slightly adjusting net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 1.735 billion (previously 1.795 billion) and 1.806 billion (previously 1.920 billion), while introducing a forecast of 1.882 billion for 2027, corresponding to EPS of 2.13, 2.21, and 2.31 respectively [2] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 11.886 billion, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.664 billion, an increase of 16% year-on-year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 3.273 billion, a 32% increase year-on-year, with the company actively collecting receivables [3] Business Segments - The solid waste management business generated revenue of 6.008 billion, a 7% decrease year-on-year, but net profit increased by 4% to 1.025 billion, with an operating net profit of 1.004 billion, up 10% [3] - The gas business revenue decreased by 7% to 3.758 billion, influenced by a decline in sales price and slight decrease in sales volume, although the gross margin improved [3] - The company is actively expanding its heating business, with a 34% year-on-year increase in heating volume to 1.48 million tons, having signed 17 external heating agreements [3] Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of Yuefeng Environmental is progressing, with expectations to complete the acquisition by mid-2025 after meeting all preliminary conditions [4] - The acquisition is anticipated to lead to a significant increase in incineration capacity and gradual realization of synergies [4]