短期不必把两个市场挂钩挂得很紧。 随着人民币汇率波动加大，市场对股汇联动的关注度有所提升，关于"人民币汇率重估将推动中国资产重估"等说法的声量渐高。 "这其中存在三大误解。"1月10日，中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛在第三十届（2026年度）中国资本市场论坛上提示，汇率更多时候起到"减震器"作用， 短期内不必把两个市场挂钩挂得很紧。 首先是关于股市汇市同涨同跌的误解。管涛以日本和印度举例说，股市和汇市虽然都属于资产价格，但是又受到不同因素的影响，某些时候是同涨同跌，大 部分时候是被各自的因素驱动。"股市上涨、资产价格重估就一定要汇率上涨"的观点站不住脚。 其次是关于"汇率升值就意味着资本流入，汇率贬值就意味着资本外流"的误解。"实际上，影响资本流动的决定因素不是汇率，是国际收支结构。"管涛举例 说，2025年美国和中国的情况都可以证伪上述观点。 "比如，（去年）美国是结构性的贸易逆差，所以美国就是资本流入。而且不要以为去年美元跌了，美国资本流入就少了，去年前三个季度美元指数跌了 9.8%，根据美国财政部的国际资本流动报告（TIC），美国去年证券投资项下的资本净流入同比增长38%，其中私人外资净流入同比增长83% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a misunderstanding in the market regarding the simultaneous rise and fall of the stock and foreign exchange markets, which should not be simply correlated [1][2] - The first misconception is that the stock and foreign exchange markets move together. The chief economist emphasizes that while both are asset prices, they are influenced by different factors [1] - The second misconception is that currency appreciation always leads to capital inflow, while depreciation leads to outflow. The decisive factor for capital flow is the structure of the balance of payments, not the exchange rate [1][2] Group 2 - The third misconception is that currency appreciation is always beneficial and depreciation is always detrimental. The actual situation can be more complex, as seen in Japan's stock market benefiting from a weaker yen [2] - The chief economist notes that the exchange rate often acts as a "shock absorber," allowing for timely responses to internal and external shocks, which helps to release pressures and expectations of appreciation or depreciation [2] - In the long term, the logic that "a strong economy leads to a strong currency" will support the future strength of the renminbi and the long-term positive outlook for China's capital market [2]