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花生:关注宏观
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-15 11:08
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The peanut spot market has seen a price decline. As of March 12, the average price of national general peanuts was 8,064 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.11% from March 5. Some growers and grain dealers are reluctant to sell, resulting in limited supply. Processing enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials, and some trading enterprises hold a large amount of inventory. The demand for commercial peanuts is weak, while the demand for oil peanuts is increasing as some large oil mills start purchasing [1]. - In the futures market, peanut futures rose in the week of March 13. The main contract (PK2605) had a maximum price of 8,198 yuan/ton, a minimum of 7,920 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 8,186 yuan/ton (compared to 7,906 yuan/ton the previous week) [1]. - The Middle - East situation has affected the macro oil - meal market. Oil mills entered the market earlier than expected, which is positive for market sentiment. The increase in export orders for small - sized peanuts from Southeast Asia is beneficial to the peanut spot market, with some specifications in a tight - balance situation. However, the demand for commercial peanuts remains weak, which restricts the upward space of the market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - The report presents the basis of Henan Baisha peanuts and Xingcheng Xiaoriben peanuts from 2021 - 2026, as well as the 11 - 1 spread (discontinued) and 5 - 10 spread [6][7][8]. 3.2 Price Data - The price of Henan Zhumadian Baisha peanuts was basically flat compared to last week. The report also shows the price trends of Henan Zhengyang Baisha peanuts and Sudan refined rice [9][10]. 3.3 Supply - The arrival volume of 6 oil - peanut markets was about 0.65 million tons, up 2.18% week - on - week and 18.08% year - on - year. The arrival volume of 14 commercial - peanut markets was about 0.4 million tons, down 9.42% week - on - week and 18.82% year - on - year. The arrival volume of 20 domestic trade markets was about 1.05 million tons, down 2.56% week - on - week and up 0.69% year - on - year [12]. 3.4 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 2.36 million tons, up 191.13% week - on - week and 6.49% year - on - year. The mainstream price of domestic first - grade peanut oil is stable at 14,000 - 15,000 yuan/ton, with some mills slightly raising prices. The mainstream price of peanut meal is 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills was 169.98 yuan/ton this week, up 116.06 yuan/ton from last week and 297.59 yuan/ton from the same period last year. The comprehensive startup rate of sample enterprises was 6.26%, up 4.2% week - on - week and down 12.68% year - on - year. The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 1.11 million tons, up 203.55% week - on - week and down 66.94% year - on - year [19]. 3.5 Inventory - The report shows the inventory trends of peanuts and peanut oil in oil mills from 2020 - 2026 [22].