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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Live Hogs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The development of biodiesel can support vegetable oils in the long - term, and a strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended. Short - term price trends of various agricultural products are affected by weather, policies, and trade news [3][4] - Supply and demand of the domestic corn market have no major contradictions currently, and attention should be paid to the phased supply in the circulation link [7] - The overall supply of the live hog industry in the later period is abundant, and prices are under downward pressure in the medium - term [8] - Egg prices have not reached the bottom of the cycle in the long - term, and the rebound strength of spot prices should be monitored [9] Summary by Category Soybean - Domestic soybeans continue to rebound. There is a risk of short - term waterlogging in some areas, and the policy procurement auction had zero transactions this week. For U.S. soybeans, there are risks of higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal precipitation in the central and southern production areas in the next 6 - 10 days [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of July 15, about 7% of U.S. soybean production areas were affected by drought. The overall price of U.S. agricultural products rose, driving the continuous rebound of Dalian soybean meal. In China, the spot price of soybean meal increased, the oil mill operating rate remained high, and inventory continued to increase [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The palm oil contract rose strongly, and soybean oil followed. Indonesia is studying the B50 biodiesel plan, and the U.S. will reduce tariffs on Indonesian products. In the long - term, a strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed products generally rose. Canadian rapeseed futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The Sino - Australian rapeseed trade has limited impact on near - month supply and demand. There is still room for a short - term rebound in domestic rapeseed products [6] Corn - Dalian corn rebounded with increased positions. The auction of imported U.S. corn had a low transaction rate, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The supply of Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased. Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The live hog 09 contract rose slightly. The spot price continued to decline, and the supply was accelerating. The overall supply in the later period is abundant, and prices are under downward pressure in the medium - term [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs increased, and the futures market had intense long - short competition. Due to high production capacity, off - season contracts are under pressure, while peak - season contracts are relatively supported [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose with a weekly increase of about 0.76%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. The international cotton market is affected by factors such as the US cotton export sales report and weather, while the domestic textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with weak demand and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang supports the price to fluctuate strongly. Overall, the market shows a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. In the international market, the US cotton export sales report was not as expected, and the favorable weather led to an increase in the excellent - good rate of US cotton, suppressing the price of US cotton. In the domestic market, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. As of July 10, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 70.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and there is a high risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in some areas of Xinjiang, which supports the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the weak demand drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger oscillatory. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in the price of foreign cotton, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.04%. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of July 3, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year was 75,100 bales, a 217% increase compared to the previous four weeks and a 55% increase compared to the four - week average. The cotton export volume was 240,900 bales, a 6% decrease compared to the previous week and a 9% increase compared to the four - week average. As of July 8, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.51% month - on - month decrease [14]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 rose by about 0.76% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by 0.47%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 15,063, and that in cotton yarn futures was 29 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,850, and that of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 91 [19][24][31]. - **Futures and Spot Price Difference**: This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contract was 65 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,224 yuan per ton [32]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,266 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,490 yuan per ton. As of July 10, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [37][46]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of July 9, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M was 13,545 yuan per ton, a 0.64% month - on - month decrease; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,324 yuan per ton, a 0.37% month - on - month decrease. The port pick - up price of the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):C32S was 21,061 yuan per ton, a 0.08% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of C21S was 20,086 yuan per ton, a 0.10% month - on - month increase; the port pick - up price of JC32S was 22,990 yuan per ton, a 0.09% month - on - month increase [52]. - **Imported Cotton Cost and Profit**: As of July 9, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 816 yuan per ton, and the cost profit of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,561 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 693,900 tons or - 16.71%, and a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons or - 8.36%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [59]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of about 86.3%. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 20,000 tons or 14.5%, and a month - on - month decrease of about 20,000 tons or about 16.67%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.8% [63]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey cloth inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [67]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, the export of textiles was 420.14 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase, and the export of clothing was 418.19 billion yuan, a 0.6% increase. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% year - on - year increase and an 8.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the export of textiles was 91 billion yuan, a 2.3% decrease and a 0.9% month - on - month increase, and the export of clothing was 97.84 billion yuan, a 2.6% increase and a 17.6% month - on - month increase [71]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side**: As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [76]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Bullish [4] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating [7] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [13] - **Sugar**: Long - term: Oscillating Bearish; Short - term: Oscillating [14] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [15] - **Logs**: Oscillating Weakly [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural product market shows a pattern of multi - variety small fluctuations and oscillating consolidation. Each variety is affected by different factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade relations, resulting in different price trends and outlooks [1]. - After the end of the delivery game, the market gradually returns to being dominated by fundamentals. For example, the log market is expected to maintain an oscillating range in the medium term [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating bullish. The market is affected by multiple factors, with overseas biodiesel demand expectations being optimistic, the growth of US soybeans being good, the marginal reduction of the production increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil in June, palm oil still being in the production increase season, high domestic rapeseed oil inventory, and the expected decrease in rapeseed imports [4]. - **Information**: As of July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act boosts the demand expectation of US biodiesel for US soybean oil. Brazil will increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. The inventory of domestic imported soybeans is rising, and the expected increase in the production of Malaysian palm oil in June is limited [4]. - **Logic**: Due to good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and concerns about trade disputes, US soybeans fell on Monday, while domestic oils and fats oscillated and rose on Tuesday, with palm oil being relatively strong. The macro - environment and industrial factors jointly affect the price trends of oils and fats [4]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Oscillating. Internationally, US soybeans are expected to oscillate in a range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate [6]. - **Information**: On July 7, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes were as follows: US Gulf soybeans were 223 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week; US West soybeans were 196 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week; South American soybeans were 220 cents/bu, unchanged week - on - week. On July 8, the average profit of domestic imported soybean crushing was - 8.72 yuan/ton [5]. - **Logic**: Internationally, factors such as the cancellation of relevant US economic and trade restrictive measures against China, the good growth of US soybeans, and the increase in Brazilian soybean premiums are intertwined. Domestically, the increase in soybean arrivals, the peak of oil mill crushing, and the insufficient downstream replenishment lead to an increase in soybean meal inventories [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Oscillating. The futures price reached a new low, and the auction turnover became lighter [7]. - **Information**: The mainstream spot price of corn in Jinzhou Port was 2310 - 2330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in Guangdong Port was 2420 - 2440 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Logic**: In the futures market, some short - sellers took profits and left the market, and the bearish sentiment was released. In the spot market, the number of waiting vehicles in North China's deep - processing plants decreased, and the enthusiasm of the trading sector to sell increased [8]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Oscillating. The supply - side reform expectation boosts the sentiment of hog futures, but there is still supply pressure in the medium and long term [8]. - **Information**: On July 8, the price of live hogs (external ternary) in Henan was 15.05 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0.33%; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,275 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0.21% [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the macro - control brings positive market sentiment, and the pressure on group - farm slaughter is partially released. In the medium and long term, the abundant supply of sows and the continuous increase in the number of piglets born since the beginning of the year bring supply pressure [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Oscillating. It maintains an oscillating range, and there is no major contradiction at present [11]. - **Information**: As of July 8, the prices of various rubber raw materials and products were reported, and the total number of US tire imports in the first five months of 2025 increased by 6.4% year - on - year [9]. - **Logic**: The supply side is affected by the rainy season, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand side is relatively stable in the short term but weak in the long - term expectation. Overall, it is in a state of pressure [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Oscillating. The unexpected incident of the device quickly pushed up the market, but the fundamentals are still under pressure [13]. - **Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions changed [12]. - **Logic**: The fire in a refinery's device affected the market sentiment, but the butadiene market is still facing problems such as weak demand and increasing supply pressure [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Oscillating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. The new crop has an expected increase in production, which restricts the upside space of the market, while the low inventory of old crops provides support [13]. - **Information**: As of July 8, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 24/25 season was 9971, and the closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton month - on - month [13]. - **Logic**: The new cotton in China and other major producing countries has an expected increase in production. The downstream is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. The commercial inventory of cotton has been decreasing, but the rate has slowed down recently [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Long - term: Oscillating bearish; short - term: Oscillating. The new sugar - making season is expected to have a loose supply, and the price has a downward driving force [14]. - **Information**: As of July 7, the closing price of Zhengzhou Sugar 09 contract was 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [14]. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a loose supply in the 25/26 season. Brazil's sugar production is uncertain, India's monsoon rainfall is beneficial to sugarcane growth, and the domestic sugar market has a high sales rate but increasing import pressure [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Oscillating. The warm atmosphere in the financial market cannot change the weak atmosphere of pulp [15]. - **Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained unchanged, and the new round of quotes from Chile's Arauco Company for July were reported [15]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand relationship of pulp is weak, but the price is at a low level, and there is a risk in short - selling. It is recommended to hold short positions and not chase short [15]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: Oscillating weakly. The market is expected to maintain an oscillating range of 760 - 830 in the medium term [17]. - **Information**: The delivery situation of the 07 contract has affected the market, and the daily出库 volume of logs in July is more than 60,000 cubic meters [16]. - **Logic**: The demand for logs is stable throughout the year, and the inventory reduction is slow. The new foreign quotation increase reflects the strong willingness of domestic traders to buy at the bottom. After the end of the delivery game, the market returns to being dominated by fundamentals [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Policy is a crucial factor affecting soybeans this year. With Brazil's soybean harvest, the domestic supply is abundant before the new US soybean season, and soybean meal prices are expected to remain weak. New US soybeans may face export pressure, and their prices may decline. Demand for feed is expected to increase in the fourth - quarter. The international soybean supply is loose, and future focus should be on policies, North American weather, and South American new - season production [5][65] - **Corn**: The domestic corn supply is tight this year due to reduced production and imports. The market is affected by policies, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. New - season corn production may be affected by disasters, and prices may weaken when new corn hits the market [7][106] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H1 Soybean Meal Market Review - **Price Review**: International and domestic soybean meal prices fluctuated widely in H1 2025, influenced by supply, trade policies, and geopolitics. US soybeans rose from 947 cents/bu to 1075 cents/bu in Q1 and then fell to 970 cents/bu in early April, later rising to around 1050 cents/bu. Domestic soybean meal prices rose from 2616 yuan/ton to 3025 yuan/ton in February - March and reached a high of 3168 yuan/ton in early April, then declined [14][15][19] US Soybean Balance Sheet - **New - season Planting**: In 2025, the US soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, a 4.2% year - on - year decrease due to last season's losses [21] - **Yield and Production**: The old - season US soybeans continued to accumulate inventory in 2024 - 25. New - season planting and early growth were smooth, with a 66% good - to - excellent rate as of June 29. Future weather and policies need attention [23][24] South American Soybean Balance Sheet - **Brazil**: USDA expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 175 million tons. This year's production was a record high, and the ending inventory increased. The weather is currently normal, but there is a risk of La Nina after October [31][33][36] - **Argentina**: The 2025 soybean production is expected to be 49 million tons, a historical average. The ending inventory slightly increased [38] Canadian Rapeseed Balance Sheet - The new - season Canadian rapeseed planting area decreased slightly, but the yield is expected to be high, and the ending inventory may reach 1.6 million tons. Export is uncertain, affected by China - Canada and US - Canada trade relations [43] Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - **Sino - US Trade**: Trade friction resumed this year. China's soybean imports mainly come from Brazil. If the 90 - day negotiation fails, it will affect domestic soybean supply after October and US soybean exports [46] - **China - Canada Trade**: Tariffs mainly affect Canadian rapeseed meal prices. Trade friction may change the international rapeseed trade flow [48][49] - **Imports and Inventory**: In May 2025, China imported 13.918 million tons of soybeans. As of June 30, soybean inventory was 6.6587 million tons, and soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons [50] - **Downstream Demand**: Since H2 2024, the pig industry's capacity has slowly recovered. Feed production increased by 10.6% in the first five months of this year, and soybean meal consumption increased by about 5% [58][62] Meal Market Outlook - The policy is crucial. Before the new US soybean season, the domestic supply is loose, and soybean meal prices will be weak. New US soybeans may face export pressure. Future focus should be on policies, North American weather, and South American new - season production [65] 2024 Corn Market Review - **Price Review**: Corn prices oscillated and rose in H1 2025, from 2209 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 2420 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of 9.1% [66][70] International Corn Supply and Demand - **US**: In 2025/2026, the US corn planting area increased to 95.2 million acres. The total supply is expected to be 17.21 billion bushels. The new - season corn growth is good, but exports are affected by Sino - US trade relations [76] - **Brazil**: The new - season Brazilian corn planting area increased slightly. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 131 million tons [80] Domestic Corn Supply and Demand - **New - season Corn**: The current season's corn sales have ended, and the new - season corn is growing. Heilongjiang may be affected by low temperature and hail, and the impact on production needs further attention [83] - **Imports**: In May 2025, China imported 190,000 tons of corn. From January to May, the cumulative import was 628,900 tons, a significant decrease [86] - **Inventory**: As of the end of June, the northern port inventory was about 2.724 million tons, and the southern feed grain inventory was about 1.889 million tons [91] - **Demand**: In June, the corn starch industry's operating rate was 51.93%. From January to July 3, starch, alcohol, and amino acid processing enterprises' corn consumption changed differently. Feed production increased in the first five months [95][102] Corn Market Outlook - Corn supply is currently tight, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. New - season production may be affected, and prices may weaken when new corn is on the market. Attention should be paid to policy changes and new - season production [106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market has a supply - tightening expectation, but new - year domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is weakening in the off - season. The sugar market has a complex situation with supply increase expectations in the new season and import pressure on domestic prices. The pulp market has a supply - abundant situation and weak downstream demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,957 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 19, the US net signed 6,214 tons of upland cotton this year and shipped 42,000 tons, with 0 tons net - signed to China and 1,882 tons shipped [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the June USDA report cut 25/26 global cotton production and consumption, with a decrease in ending stocks. US cotton growing areas have more rainfall, but the seedling condition has worsened. Domestically, commercial inventory is de - stocking, but new - year planting area is stable or increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Strategy - Neutral. Uncertain tariff policies, weather - induced short - term strength, but new - year high - yield expectations and weakening demand create upward pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,790 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,890 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% from August 1, 2025 [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong. Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, but there may be a short - term rebound. Domestic sugar sales are fast, but import volume in July may suppress the rebound [4] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar follows the international market, and attention should be paid to Brazilian estimates and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,066 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm did not improve [5] Market Analysis - Pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The suspension of a delivery product caused market fluctuations, but the supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The 09 contract is mainly priced by certain pulp types, and the market lacks positive drivers, so prices may stay at the bottom [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Palm Oil**: No rating [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Corn**: ★★★ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It takes into account factors such as weather, policies, geopolitical conflicts, and supply - demand relationships to provide insights into price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Category Beans 1 - Beans 1 saw a decline with reduced positions. Domestic soybeans performed weaker than imported ones. In the medium - term, weather is the main price - influencing factor for imported soybeans, and the US biodiesel policy is bullish in the long - term, providing support to GBOT soybeans. Short - term weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Due to the escalating Israel - Iran conflict, crude oil fluctuated widely, and US soybeans remained strong, causing Dalian soybean meal to increase in positions and price. The strong performance of domestic oil futures may limit the rise of soybean meal. On June 19, CBOT was closed. US weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean planting. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose today, with 12 million tons of imported soybeans arriving in June. The oil mills' operating rate is high, and soybean meal is in a stock - building cycle. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and attention should be paid to the oil market and weather changes from June to August [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Driven by the biodiesel theme, soybean oil remained strong. The profit of soybean crushing improved, which is beneficial for China to purchase forward soybeans. The market showed a pattern of strong oil and weak meal. As the oil price on the futures market rose, the spot basis weakened. In the long - term, the biodiesel development is likely to support vegetable oils, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed is in a critical growth period, and its price is supported by weather premiums and changes in the crude oil market. Canadian old - crop inventories are tight, and new - crop prospects are promising, so the medium - term price is likely to rise. The price difference between domestic rapeseed oil and other oils is high, and terminal consumption is not strong. The main boost to rapeseed oil prices comes from import uncertainties. In the weather - sensitive period, rapeseed futures prices may rise in the medium - term but face short - term pressure from demand [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures fluctuated upwards. The bullish sentiment affected by wheat policies weakened. The price difference between new wheat and corn is around 30 yuan/ton, and some feed enterprises are substituting. After the wheat minimum purchase price policy was announced, the actual price increase was small. Corn traders expect future price increases. North and South port inventories are decreasing, and the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is falling, with inventories remaining stable. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of corn is not obvious, and the futures may continue to fluctuate [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures declined significantly in the near - term contracts and slightly in the far - term ones. The spot price remained stable. Policy aims to stabilize pig prices by reducing the inventory of breeding sows, but the industry still faces large pressure on pig slaughter in the medium - term due to high production capacity and the number of new - born piglets. Attention should be paid to the weight - reduction rhythm [8] Eggs - Egg futures fluctuated within the range formed yesterday. Spot prices rose across the country. As egg prices entered a low - level range, bottom - fishing sentiment emerged, and demand was released in advance due to the upcoming Mid - Autumn Festival. However, due to continuous capacity release and normal old - hen culling progress, the egg price increase is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★☆ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★☆ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Corn**: ★★☆ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★★★ [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall agricultural product market shows complex trends affected by multiple factors, including policies, weather, geopolitics, and supply - demand relationships. Different products have different characteristics and investment suggestions [2][3][4] - For most products, weather is a key factor affecting prices in the medium - term, especially from June to August [2][3] - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade still exist, and the market is currently treated as volatile [3] Summary by Product Beans 1 - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate strongly. Policy trading volume is low, and warehouse receipts decrease year - on - year. Short - term weather in Northeast China is beneficial to crops. The US EPA biodiesel policy is positive, which supports CBOT soybean prices. In the medium term, weather will drive price fluctuations both overseas and domestically [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The Israel - Iran war and the US EPA policy drive up US soybean and soybean meal prices. US weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth. Domestic soybean arrivals have increased since May, supply is loose, and soybean meal inventory is expected to continue to rise. The market is currently volatile, and attention should be paid to the oil end and future weather changes [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - In China, oil is strong and meal is weak, and the oil - meal ratio rises significantly. The US EPA biodiesel policy is positive for the long - term, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Geopolitics, biodiesel policies, and产区 weather are the main factors affecting rapeseed futures prices. Currently, multiple factors are positive, and a bullish strategy is maintained [6] Corn - The USDA June corn report is slightly positive. Affected by wheat policies, Dalian corn futures first rose and then eased. The price difference between wheat and corn is narrowing, and some feed enterprises are substituting. Corn futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures fluctuate narrowly, and spot prices rebound slightly. In the short term, there is downward pressure on prices, but in the medium term, policy support may provide price support [8] Eggs - Egg futures show a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. Spot prices and near - term futures are rebounding. However, if the price rebounds too quickly, there is a risk of price fluctuations [9]

Group 1: Rapeseed Oil - Spot price: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan is 9300 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Market analysis: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - term imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while long - term supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and short - to - medium - term inventory may remain high [2] - Reference view: The Rapeseed Oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot price: The spot prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 2840 yuan/ton, 2920 yuan/ton, 2850 yuan/ton, and 2840 yuan/ton respectively [3] - Market analysis: The US tariff policy is changeable. Sino - US leaders' phone call boosts market confidence. US soybean planting is going smoothly, and Brazil is in the peak export period. Domestic soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory accumulation is slow [3] - Reference view: Currently dominated by sentiment, soybean meal may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot price: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, North China and Huanghuai are 2206 yuan/ton and 2413 yuan/ton respectively. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2270 - 2300 yuan/ton [4] - Market analysis: The weather in the US corn - producing areas is good. The domestic corn market is in the transition period, with tight supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed field. Downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. Pay attention to the new wheat listing and weather changes [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot price: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78740 - 79010, with a rise of 0, and a premium of 20 - 150. The imported copper ore index is - 43.29, up 0.72 [5] - Market analysis: US non - farm data eases recession concerns and reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts. Global tariff confrontation continues. Domestic policies boost market sentiment. Raw material problems persist, and domestic copper inventory is falling [5] - Reference view: Copper prices may test the bubble node again. Wait for weak signals [5] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot price: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 60800 yuan/ton and 59150 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1650 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Market analysis: The raw material end shows signs of stabilization. Supply is stable but the structure is adjusting. Demand is weak. The market may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [6] - Reference view: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can conduct range operations [6] Group 6: Steel - Spot price: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3090. Tangshan's operating rate is 83.56%. Social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [7] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving. The cost is dynamically adjusted, and inventory is low. The market is dominated by macro - policy expectations in the short term, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - Reference view: Steel is in the process of valuation repair. Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the short term [7] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot price: The ex - warehouse price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port is 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shanxi Lvliang is 1070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (a decline of 2.73%). The flat - price of coke in Rizhao Port is 1410 yuan/ton, unchanged. Steel mill coke inventory is at a 5 - month low but up 18% year - on - year [7] - Market analysis: Some coal mines in Shanxi reduce production due to environmental protection, but imported coal remains high. Coking plant capacity utilization rate decreases, and the loss per ton of coke expands. Iron - water production decreases slightly, and steel mill inventory pressure eases [7][8] - Reference view: The main coking coal and coke contracts may fluctuate in the near term. Pay attention to steel mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [7][8] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot price: The Platts index of iron ore is 95.65. The price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 728, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 732. The closing price of the main iron ore contract is 707, down 0.71% from the previous trading day [9] - Market analysis: Global iron ore shipments increase. Domestic demand is under seasonal pressure. Port inventory is at a high level, suppressing prices. The main contract is in a sideways consolidation phase [9] - Reference view: The Iron Ore 2509 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory reduction speed and steel mill resumption of production. In the long term, prices may be further pressured [9] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: US non - farm data eases recession concerns. OPEC lowers global demand growth forecasts. US trade wars and geopolitical issues increase supply uncertainty. OPEC + agrees to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [10] - Reference view: The WTI main contract should focus on whether it can break through the 65 - dollar/barrel level in the short term. In the long term, without major geopolitical impacts on supply, the upside of crude oil is limited [10] Group 10: Rubber - Spot price: The prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13650 yuan/ton, 19800 yuan/ton, 15000 yuan/ton, and 13850 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of raw materials in Hat Yai are as follows: RSS3 is 65.9 baht/kg, latex is 56 baht/kg, cup lump is 44.9 baht/kg, and raw rubber is 62.26 baht/kg [11] - Market analysis: The US trade war policy is changeable. The supply of rubber is loose globally, and downstream tire operating rates decline. After the negative factors are realized, there is an expectation of a weak rebound [11][12] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. Supply exceeds demand, but a weak rebound pattern may start in the short term [12] Group 11: PVC - Spot price: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the two is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [13] - Market analysis: PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increases. Downstream demand shows no obvious improvement. Social inventory decreases [13] - Reference view: The fundamentals remain weak, and futures prices will fluctuate at a low level [13] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot price: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1364.63 yuan/ton, down 10.62 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1375 yuan/ton, 1400 yuan/ton, and 1350 yuan/ton respectively, with different changes [14] - Market analysis: The overall operating rate of soda ash increases, and production rises. Factory inventory slightly increases, and social inventory decreases. Downstream demand is average [14] - Reference view: The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate within the bottom - range in the short term [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market shows a bullish sentiment. The domestic soybean meal market oscillated and closed higher, influenced by the US trade policy and weather. The domestic rapeseed meal market also followed a similar trend. The soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate faster as the domestic oil mills' operating rate remains high [6]. - The oil market presents a differentiated trend. Internationally, the US soybean oil oscillated weakly, while the Malaysian palm oil oscillated higher. Domestically, rapeseed oil declined significantly, palm oil followed the Malaysian palm oil with a first - rising - then - falling trend, and soybean oil first declined and then rose. The differentiated market may continue [72]. - In the future, for protein meals, weather speculation in the US soybean market may heat up, and the domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster. For oils, the upcoming MPOB report is crucial, and the market will focus on the export situation in June [134]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Review - CBOT soybeans first declined and then rose this week. The US trade policy changes and geopolitical factors caused significant market fluctuations. The domestic soybean meal market also oscillated and closed higher, with the futures price breaking through 3000 on Friday [6]. 3.1.2 US Soybean Export - As of the week ending May 29, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 268,343 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year reached 44,608,089 tons, higher than the same period last year [11]. 3.1.3 US Soybean Planting Progress - As of June 1, the US soybean planting was 84% complete, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. The first - rating report showed a 67% good - to - excellent rate [24]. 3.1.4 North American Weather - At the end of the month, storms moved south, and wildfire smoke affected air quality in the north - central US. An early - season heatwave hit the west, and temperature differences were significant across regions [29]. 3.1.5 Domestic and International Oilseed Markets - The estimated 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production was revised up by 1.3 million tons to 169 million tons. Canada's spring rapeseed planting progress accelerated. The global oilseed market is expected to have production and price changes in 2025/26 [36][37]. 3.1.6 Global Trade Pattern Changes - There were frequent changes in the US trade policy, including tariff adjustments and trade talks. The EU - Ukraine trade policy changed, and the US was promoting more agricultural product exports [40][41]. 3.1.7 Soybean Inventory and Profit - The domestic spot and futures soybean crushing margins continued to decline, showing losses. The port soybean inventory decreased, and the theoretical inventory at the end of next week is expected to be 5.04 million tons [48]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal Inventory and Consumption - The domestic oil mills' operating rate increased to 65.98%, and the soybean meal inventory reached 306,000 tons, a significant increase. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 22nd week was 1.8367 million tons [56][59]. 3.1.9 Rapeseed Meal Inventory and Consumption - The domestic rapeseed oil mills' operating rate decreased to 17.61%, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased to 20,000 tons, while the contract volume increased significantly [65]. 3.2 Oil Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - Internationally, the US soybean oil oscillated weakly, and the Malaysian palm oil oscillated higher. Domestically, rapeseed oil declined significantly, palm oil followed the Malaysian palm oil with a first - rising - then - falling trend, and soybean oil first declined and then rose [72]. 3.2.2 International Oil Information - In March 2025, the US used 832 million pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, a significant increase from February. Indonesia's palm oil export and production increased in March, and the inventory decreased. The global vegetable oil market may face a shortage [75][76][77]. 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Weather - The southwest monsoon brought heavy rainfall to Thailand and surrounding areas. Malaysia and Indonesia also had widespread showers, benefiting the oil palm areas [83]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 22nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.0706 million tons, an increase of 3.57% week - on - week. The soybean oil inventory increased, the palm oil inventory increased slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly [93]. 3.2.5 Oil Basis Analysis - The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [100][103][106]. 3.2.6 Oil Futures Spread and Arbitrage - The spreads between different oil futures contracts and the arbitrage relationships between oil and meal futures showed certain trends. For example, the oil - to - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseeds continued to decline [110][113]. 3.3后市展望 3.3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, the short - term indicators are bullish, while the medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined. For rapeseed meal, all indicators are intertwined. For soybean oil, the short - term indicators are intertwined, and the medium - and long - term indicators are bearish. For palm oil, all indicators are intertwined. For rapeseed oil, the short - term indicators are bearish, and the medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined [133]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein meal: Internationally, there may be weather speculation in the US soybean market. Domestically, the soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and the cost - driven effect of rapeseed meal is prominent. - Oils: The upcoming MPOB report is crucial. If the inventory is in line with expectations, the market will focus on the June export situation. The domestic oil market follows the international market, with policy impacts on soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and the palm oil market awaits further report guidance [134].