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资金成本下降
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赵锡军:上半年资金成本持续下降,支撑经济回稳向好
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 11:15
Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization and improvement in the first half of 2025, supported by declining funding costs and effective financial policies [1][3]. Financial Performance - The weighted average interest rate for interbank RMB market lending decreased from 1.86% in January to 1.46% in June, while the repo rate fell from 2.16% to 1.5% during the same period, indicating lower funding costs that support the real economy [3]. - Key financial indicators showed positive trends: social financing stock increased by 8.9% year-on-year, broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3%, and RMB loans rose by 7.1% [3][5]. Market Recovery - The capital market has shown signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 3500 points since September 24, 2024, reflecting improved market confidence and expectations [4]. - The introduction of two new structural policy tools by the central bank on September 24, 2024, aimed at supporting the capital market, has significantly boosted market confidence despite their limited actual usage [4]. Policy Impact - The combined effect of monetary and fiscal policies is becoming increasingly evident, with government bond financing rising significantly. In the first half of 2025, social financing increased by 22.83 trillion RMB, with government bond net financing reaching 7.66 trillion RMB, indicating a stronger fiscal policy [5][6]. - Despite positive developments, challenges remain, particularly in the disparity between broad money (M2) and narrow money (M1) growth rates, suggesting room for improvement in monetary vitality [5][6].