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回望过往牛市征程,当下“慢牛”行情该如何把握?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 08:59
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant changes over the past two decades, with each bull market driven by a combination of policy incentives and capital influx, leading to the emergence of the Shenzhen 100 Index as a key tool for capturing current market opportunities [1][2]. Historical Bull Market Review - The core themes of past bull markets in the A-share market have been "policy guidance" and "capital support," with the Shenzhen 100 Index consistently aligning with the main opportunities of each bull market [2]. - The bull market initiated by the 2005 currency reform saw blue-chip stocks in finance and real estate leading the charge, with the Shenzhen 100 Index benefiting from policy and economic expansion [3]. - The 2008 "four trillion" stimulus plan led to a rise in both cyclical and growth stocks, with the Shenzhen 100 Index including leaders from both sectors, showcasing its ability to cover multiple sectors [3]. - In 2014, financial innovation policies shifted focus to technology and consumer stocks, with the Shenzhen 100 Index reflecting strong performance due to its inclusion of electronic and consumer leaders [4]. - The 2019 liquidity easing spurred a growth wave in semiconductor and renewable energy sectors, with the Shenzhen 100 Index leading in high-growth environments [4]. Current Slow Bull Market - The current "slow bull" market is characterized by "long-term policies" and "gradual capital entry," highlighting the unique advantages of the Shenzhen 100 Index [5]. - The "924" policy emphasizes improving the quality of listed companies and optimizing market ecology, marking a shift from previous single-stimulus policies to a focus on sustainable growth [5]. - The Shenzhen 100 Index, comprising large-cap, liquid, and profitable core assets, aligns well with the policy's support for high-quality listed companies, making it a direct beneficiary of policy incentives [5]. - Since June, while individual investor account openings have been relatively flat compared to last year's surge, institutional account openings have significantly increased, aided by a recovery in private fund issuance [5][6]. Capital Dynamics - The current market shows a trend of "retail funds waiting to enter" while "institutional funds continue to allocate," indicating ample room for future retail inflows [8]. - Institutional funds are increasingly favoring "low volatility, high certainty" assets, with the Shenzhen 100 Index covering quality targets across various sectors, appealing to both retail and institutional investors [8]. - The financing balance has rapidly approached 2.1 trillion, nearing 2015 highs, but the average balance per account has lagged, indicating that current leverage is primarily driven by active market participants rather than new retail investors [8][9]. Investment Strategy - The Shenzhen 100 Index serves as a core allocation strategy to capture policy-driven growth sectors, including renewable energy, semiconductors, and consumer recovery, allowing investors to easily access multiple growth narratives [11]. - The "slow bull" market favors value over speculation, with funds leaning towards core assets supported by performance. Historical trends show that companies with stable return on equity (ROE) and sustainable profit growth tend to outperform [12]. - The Shenzhen 100 Index, with its favorable industry structure and reasonable valuations, is positioned as a high-quality choice for index-based investments, exemplified by the E Fund Shenzhen 100 ETF, which has a leading scale of 7.736 billion [12].