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国家背书稳赚不赔?九大行业稳增长方案出炉,错过就要再等5年
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 22:59
Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by two national departments in China regarding nine key industries is seen as a roadmap for stable growth, indicating a clear direction for investment opportunities in the coming years [2][4][6]. Group 1: Policy and Industry Direction - The nine industries are part of a long-term strategy, marking the transition from the 14th Five-Year Plan to the 15th, outlining where resources should be allocated in the next five years [6][7]. - China's policy continuity is emphasized as a significant certainty, contrasting with other markets where policies frequently change [7][9]. - The focus is on long-term logic rather than short-term numerical fluctuations, with funding expected to follow established policy directions [9]. Group 2: Key Themes in the Nine Industries - The first theme is "high-quality development," which prioritizes stability over rapid growth in certain sectors, such as construction materials and light industry, to protect supply chains and employment [11][13]. - The second theme is "domestic discourse power," promoting self-sufficiency in technology, particularly in AI servers, allowing for a 20% price premium for domestic products [13][15]. - The third theme is "green transformation," which aims to upgrade industries through low-carbon processes, emphasizing environmental standards as a competitive advantage [15][17]. - The fourth theme is "anti-involution," which seeks to control new capacity in industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, shifting the focus from scale to technology [17]. Group 3: Structural Opportunities in Specific Industries - The electronic information manufacturing sector is highlighted as a key beneficiary, with a projected growth rate of 7% and a target for AI server industry scale exceeding 400 billion [19][21]. - The automotive industry is transitioning to a focus on new energy and smart technologies, with a projected 20% growth in electric vehicles, indicating a shift from price competition to technological advancement [21][22]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is encouraged to focus on high-value-added products rather than raw material extraction, signaling a shift towards processing and innovation [24][26]. Group 4: Investment Logic for the Future - The investment logic for the next five years emphasizes policy benefits, industry characteristics, and technological capabilities rather than chasing new concepts or hot trends [26].
新能源及有色金属日报:假期有色行情提振,镍不锈钢价格拉涨-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, macro - impacts are limited, and nickel prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,300 yuan/ton and closed at 124,480 yuan/ton, a 2.39% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 130,864 (+3,674) lots, and the open interest was 86,038 (9,898) lots. Domestic new policies on culture, tourism, and infrastructure during the National Day holiday strengthened the medium - to - long - term demand expectations for key metals in new energy and high - end manufacturing. Overseas, after the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, the market's bet on further easing at the late - October FOMC meeting increased, and the US dollar index slightly declined [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: After the holiday, the nickel - ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, and mine quotes remain firm. In Indonesia, the nickel - ore market supply is in a continuous loose pattern, and the 10 - month (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 dollars. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has increased the uncertainty of medium - to - long - term production capacity release [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 125,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Driven by the collective rise of the non - ferrous sector and post - holiday restocking demand, the trading of refined nickel was fair, and the premiums of some brands increased slightly but remained stable overall [3]. - **Strategy** - The macro - impact on nickel prices is limited, and prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading for single - side operations, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of stainless steel opened at 12,770 yuan/ton and closed at 12,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 88,195 (-39,957) lots, and the open interest was 60,514 (-4,171) lots. On the first trading day after the holiday, although LME nickel rose sharply during the holiday, the stainless - steel contract opened lower due to the decline of the black - metal sector. It then rose in the afternoon driven by the increase in Shanghai nickel but failed to break through the resistance near 12,900 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot**: On the first day of resuming work after the holiday, the spot market remained sluggish as before the holiday, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. Affected by the rise in the Shanghai nickel futures price in the afternoon, the spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was still limited [5]. - **Strategy** - Due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recommended single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [5].
回望过往牛市征程,当下“慢牛”行情该如何把握?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 08:59
A股二十余载风云变幻,每一轮牛市都像一场波澜壮阔的征程,既有政策红利催生的澎湃动能,也有资金浪潮推动的 行情盛宴。从2005年汇改开启的蓝筹狂欢,到2008年"四万亿"点燃的周期与成长共振,再到2014年金融创新驱动的活 力爆发、2019年流动性释放催生的成长股浪潮,每一轮牛市都留下了清晰的脉络与独特的机遇。如今,在"924"资本市 场政策与政治局会议多重利好加持下,"慢牛"行情的轮廓逐渐清晰,而汇聚深市核心资产的深证100指数,正成为把握 这轮行情的关键工具。 一、复盘历史牛市:每一轮机遇都藏着"政策+资金"双逻辑 对比过往牛市,当前"慢牛"行情的"长期化政策"与"逐步进场资金"特征,让深证100的优势更显突出。 从政策端看,"924"政策聚焦上市公司质量提升、市场生态优化,政治局会议强调"活跃资本市场"的长期导向,不同于 过往单一刺激政策,当前政策更注重"可持续增长"。而深证100作为深市市值大、流动性好、盈利能力强的核心资产集 合,成份股多为各行业龙头,治理规范、业绩稳定,恰好契合政策对"优质上市公司"的扶持方向,成为政策红利的直 接受益者。6月以来的这波行情,个人投资者新增开户数量较去年924行情相比 ...
音乐节、美食节轮番登场科技商品成引流利器
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-08 17:43
为期8天的"双节"长假落幕,全国消费市场活力不断增强。据商务部商务大数据监测,假期前四天全国 重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长3.3%,文旅融合成为消费最强引擎,消费市场呈现政策托底、品 质升级、体验为王的鲜明特征。 今年"双节"假期,新场景、新业态、新模式不断涌现,品质化、体验化消费特征愈发鲜明。数据显示, 假期前三天,商务部重点监测的78个步行街和商圈客流量同比增长4.2%。各大商圈突出各自特色,打 造商、旅、文、体、展深度融合的消费新场景。 各地政府同步跟进补贴政策,10月1日至3日,云南三天内发放家电家装补贴5.63万笔,带动消费2.05亿 元;河南从9月26日起共分四轮发放1.1亿元的通用消费券,覆盖百货、餐饮、酒店、文旅等多个领域。 10月2日,湖南株洲天泽华丽服装市场,数百家商户推出"双节"特惠、直播展演等活动,吸引消费者前 来打卡购物。同在10月2日,江西芦溪县仙凤三宝园内,呦呦欢乐剧场座无虚席,儿童剧《莱杰的愿 望》赢得阵阵掌声;在潮玩市集与法治文化广场上,特色小吃与手工艺品摊位前人头攒动,当地发放 100万元消费券,以"政府补贴+企业让利"双向发力,有效激发消费潜力。 据了解,在10月国庆 ...
政策红利持续释放 “中国游”为消费添彩
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-10-04 09:44
Group 1 - The consumption market during the National Day holiday shows robust vitality, driven by favorable policies such as visa exemptions, tax refunds, and innovative consumption scenarios [1] - The National Immigration Administration predicts that the average daily inbound and outbound travelers during the National Day and Mid-Autumn holidays will exceed 2 million [1] - Data from internet platforms indicates that on October 1, the number of foreign travelers flying domestically increased by over 40% year-on-year, with flights to 70 cities in China [1] Group 2 - The top ten cities for inbound tourism are Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Qingdao, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Xiamen, and Nanjing [1] - The attractiveness of inbound tourism is growing due to the continuous release of policy dividends, including the expansion of China's visa-free travel network and the facilitation of payment for foreign visitors [1] - The travel behavior of inbound tourists is shifting from superficial sightseeing to deep experiential activities, such as tasting local delicacies and participating in traditional cultural workshops [1] Group 3 - The combination of deep experiences and a rich supply of Chinese products is making "China Shopping" a new trend among international tourists [2] - The shopping preferences of visitors have expanded from small souvenirs to items like handmade tea sets, traditional clothing, trendy toys, foldable smartphones, drones, and smartwatches [2] - The popularity of "China Travel" and "China Shopping" showcases the extraordinary charm of Chinese culture and the dynamic vitality of the Chinese economy [2]
贝壳深圳启动十一新房节 助推市场热度
近期,深圳新盘入市、加推密集,叠加"905新政"红利释放,直接助推新房成交量持续走高。据深圳贝 壳研究院监测,新政落地23天(9月6日至9月28日),贝壳深圳合作门店新房认购量较新政前23天增长 35%,较8月同期增长75%。深圳贝壳研究院院长肖小平分析指出,"政策红利+优质房源"的双重吸引, 进一步放大了成交量的增长效应。 此外,贝壳"暖新驿站&主播之家"近日在深圳德佑卓乐深圳湾旗舰店正式揭牌启动,标志着深圳首批 113家门店正式启动为暖"新"服务阵地,为新就业群体提供日常关爱、参与党建活动和社区志愿活动等 服务。 随着国庆中秋长假日益临近,房企和各个平台机构也积极合作推盘,助推市场热度。 记者从贝壳获悉,贝壳深圳携手多家开发商举办"活力深圳,宜居未来"2025贝壳深圳新房节活动。今年 国庆中秋长假期间,深圳贝壳将为广大购房者提供500余套上新特价房源。购房者不仅可以享受到开发 商为贝壳客户提供的直接折扣优惠,还能叠加贝壳找房平台的专属福利。贝壳找房APP活动页面将定时 发放500元至3000元不等的成交券抽取名额。 此外,贝壳与合作开发商签订了"贝壳阳光作业服务承诺",承诺做到不截客、不洗客、廉洁作业、阳 ...
四川阿坝州举办“阿商共赴新征程·同心共建新典范”投资合作推介会
Zhong Guo Fa Zhan Wang· 2025-09-28 09:32
Group 1 - The investment promotion conference in Aba, hosted by the Aba Prefectural Committee and the local government, aimed to attract investment and cooperation in various sectors [2][3] - Aba is recognized as a significant clean energy base in China, with planned development of nearly 100 million kilowatts in hydropower, photovoltaic, and wind energy [2] - The region is also a strategic reserve for lithium resources, with proven lithium ore reserves of 165 million tons [2] - Aba is an international ecological and cultural tourism destination, featuring 4 national 5A scenic spots, 29 4A scenic spots, and 77 3A scenic spots [2] - The conference introduced over 100 advantageous projects across various industries, including cultural tourism, specialty agriculture and animal husbandry, clean energy, medical tourism, low-altitude economy, ecological drinking water, modern logistics, and intelligent computing [2] Group 2 - The local government committed to implementing national and provincial policies to support enterprise development, including financial support, investment incentives, and retention of electricity [3] - Specific measures such as "12 incentive and subsidy policies," "28 relief measures," and "15 main body cultivation policies" were highlighted to ensure direct benefits to enterprises [3] - The government aims to enhance the business environment by focusing on financial, talent, land, and technology support, as well as optimizing governance, market, legal, and social conditions [3] - The introduction of "Huiqi Tong" allows enterprises to access Aba's policies and services conveniently [3]
养生壶突然爆炸致一岁孩子大面积烫伤,“网红小家电”小熊电器回应
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 05:41
9月28日,就近日发生的养生壶爆炸事件,素有"网红小家电"之称的小熊电器(002959.SZ)相关人士对 智通财经回应称,"属实,目前还在积极跟进中"。 图片来自网络视频 截图 据第一财经日报,小熊电器方面表示,事情发生后,小熊电器安排专人赶往医院对宝宝和家属进行了慰 问,这几天一直有专人在医院与家属交流,为其提供力所能及的帮助。 小熊电器方面表示,正在全力核查该事件的详细原因。因无法接触到相关产品,目前无法判断事故原 因,后续待有调查结果后会第一时间和媒体、用户进行通报。 此前,据新京报,9月27日,济南一网民称,9月20日家里小熊电器养生壶突然爆炸致一岁孩子全身40% 大面积烫伤。该网民称,当时养生壶崩出的碎玻璃砸中孩子,热水泼了孩子一身。9月24日孩子已做手 术,后续还需要植皮修复疤痕。该网民还称,26日有商家人员与她当面沟通,并承诺会再探望孩子进行 下一步处理。 A 京乐店铺榜 厨房小电店铺榜TOP10 88 推荐 价格: 仅看有货 | 销量 新疆 限时立减¥6 27:38后优惠失效 小熊 (Bear) 智能煎药壶 中药壶 中药锅 熬 药电砂锅 全自动中药罐中药煲3升大容量 ... 本店煎药壶热销第1 ...
半导体板块保持强势,中韩半导体ETF(513310)、科创半导体设备ETF(588710)持续“吸金”
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-26 09:24
近期,在AI需求爆发、产业周期复苏、国产替代加速等因素共同作用下,半导体板块表现强势,带动 多只ETF成交放量。Wind数据显示,截至2025年9月25日中韩半导体ETF(513310)近一周日均成交额 高达55亿元,期间累计"吸金"4.42亿元,而科创半导体设备ETF(588710)也连续7个交易日(9/17- 9/25)日均成交额站上1亿元大关,期间资金累计净流入达4.90亿元。 风险提示:基金有风险,投资需谨慎。如需购买相关基金产品,请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规 定,提前做好风险测评,并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金的 过往业绩并不预示其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证。投资 前请仔细阅读基金合同、基金招募说明书和产品资料概要等法律文件,了解基金的具体情况。科创半导 体设备ETF投资于科创板,会面临科创板机制下因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有 风险,包括但不限于科创板上市公司股票价格波动较大的风险、流动性风险、退市风险等。本基金可投 资于境外证券市场,除需承担与境内证券投资基金类似的市场波动风险等一般投资风险,还将面临 ...
常青科技百亿TMA豪赌:纸面合理与现实挑战的AB面 | 深度
Tai Mei Ti A P P· 2025-09-26 00:54
图片系AI生成 2025年9月,偏苯三酸酐(TMA)华东主流成交参考价跌至1.55万元/吨,距离去年高点已抹去超过72%。9月3日,常青科技为其百亿TMA项目一期融资的8 亿可转债按下启动按钮,相关议案在9月19日股东大会上获得通过。 这一决策的形成,在于2024年4月3日,美国英力士(INEOS)永久关闭其TMA生产装置,引发全球市场震荡。英力士是全球TMA市场的主要龙头,关闭的 工厂年产能为 65 万吨苯酚和 40.9 万吨丙酮,是英力士单套最大的苯酚生产装置,占其全球总产能的34%。关停原因包括市场疲软、竞争激烈和碳税政策缩 紧等等。 去年5月,TMA价格峰顶之际,常青科技以总资产仅25.6亿元的体量抛出总投资100亿、一期30亿的8万吨TMA项目,资金主要来源之一即此次可转债(另有 20亿元银行贷款与不足3亿元自有资金)。 偏苯三酸酐(TMA)是一种新型材料的化工原料,主要用在增塑剂、绝缘漆、涂料、工程塑料等行业,受海外产能清退影响,国内成交价在去年连翻两 倍,突破5.5万元/吨,今年二季度起却连续腰斩,几乎跌回原位。 此种局面让这个宏大项目越来越像一次豪赌。纸面上,它踩中了政策红利、产能出清、龙头退 ...