政策红利

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【机构策略】当前A股市场情绪处于历史较高水平
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-26 01:01
中原证券认为,周一,A股市场震荡走强,盘中酿酒、有色金属、通信设备以及航天航空等行业表现较 好;电子化学品、汽车、美容护理以及公用事业等行业表现较弱。居民储蓄正在加速向资本市场转移, 形成持续的增量资金来源。2025年A股上市公司整体盈利增速预期由负转正,结束此前连续四年的下滑 趋势,其中科技创新领域盈利弹性最为显著。美联储释放降息信号,全球流动性预期宽松,美元走弱利 于外资回流A股。中长期来看,居民储蓄转移、政策红利释放及盈利周期回升三大动力依然稳固,中期 慢涨格局有望延续。预计短期市场以稳步震荡上行为主,仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外盘的变化 情况。 中信建投认为,从市场流动性、资产定价差异和交易活跃度等多个维度对A股市场情绪进行刻画,当前 A股市场情绪处于历史较高水平。流动性、成份股扩散、波动率和成份股一致性为四个比较低频的交易 拥挤度指标,当前化工、建材、轻工制造、机械、国防军工、汽车、家电、纺织服装、非银行金融、电 子、通信、计算机和传媒行业处于触发拥挤指标阈值的状态(流动性、成份股扩散),当前较多行业处于 持续拥挤状态(流动性、成份股扩散)。当四个低频拥挤度触发信号偏多和提示的拥挤行业偏多时,市 ...
沂河新区:让好政策精准“滴灌”企业
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-08-22 13:52
这件事情不大,却又很难办,天成鸿图经贸公司总经理尤海涛这样判断。这家公司主营业务是俄罗斯休 闲食品进口,2024年销售额达到3.6亿元,做到了该类企业的头部位置。 2022年,天成鸿图进驻临沂综合保税区,正是瞄准了临沂的物流优势和临沂综合保税区的政策优势这两 个关键点。"我们企业内部测算,在临沂进行货物仓储、集散,物流费用要节省26.8%,物流时间也会 缩短。"尤海涛说,这两年,天成鸿图的业务量不断攀升,"但出现了一个'难受'的问题"。 天成鸿图在临沂综合保税区内有两个相邻的仓库,分别储存"保税"货物和"非保税"货物。当"保税"货物 转换成"非保税"货物时,公司必须将货物装车,进出卡口才能完成相关手续,然后货物再运回另一个仓 库存储。 "两个仓库相距仅几米,但每批货物装车、进出卡口、卸车,至少要1个小时才能完成移库。"尤海涛 说。于是,他向临沂综合保税区服务中心和临沂海关等部门反映了这个问题,寻求解决办法。 对沂河新区来说,帮助企业解决问题、吃到"政策红利",责无旁贷。2023年12月,海关总署出台"区内 货物直转"的相关政策公告。于是,第一时间,临沂综合保税区和临沂海关都行动起来。 "我们立即会同海关等部门 ...
证券ETF(512880)大涨3.48%,成交额破50亿元,持续吸金超30亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 08:29
沪指延续强势突破3800点,再刷年内新高。市场成交活跃,前期两融再度突破两万亿元,两市成交额最 高触及2.8万亿元。 证券板块业绩与股市走势息息相关,也正因为如此,证券板块被喻为"牛市旗手"。历史市场反弹期间, 证券板块显著跑赢大盘。 本轮A股券商行情来看,相较于H股券商呈现出明显欠涨现象。或许也正是因为如此,资金开始博弈A 股证券板块补涨空间。 根据wind数据,截至8月21日,证券ETF(512880)连续4日净流入额超30亿元。今日盘中成交额突破50 亿元,资金关注度紧密。 国联民生证券表示,当前券商行业PB估值仍在历史底部区域,券商行业仍有弹性空间。 华龙证券表示,市场交投持续活跃直接拉动经纪与自营业务,上半年券商净利润预增趋势向好,ROE有 望进一步提升,政策红利深化打开增量空间,板块估值有望提升。 另外,当前《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》落地,欠配的非银板块,有望在市场情绪转折点迎来 更多增量资金配置,券商或许更为受益。 除此之外,证券板块还有稳定币和并购事件催化。受益于稳定币、虚拟资产的发展,头部券商积极推动 香港1/4/9号牌升级,券商或将迎来新的业务蓝海,支撑业绩及估值提升。2024年以 ...
【机构策略】A股市场中期慢涨格局有望延续
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-22 00:45
中原证券认为,周四,上证指数全天窄幅震荡;深证成指、创业板指早盘探底回升,临近午盘震荡回 落,午后一度回升,随后再度回落,尾盘有所回升。盘中采掘、电力、软件开发以及通信服务等行业表 现较好;电机、电池、小金属以及电子化学品等行业表现较弱。政策面形成多重利好叠加,为市场提供 强劲支撑。居民储蓄正在加速向资本市场转移,形成持续的增量资金来源。2025年A股上市公司整体盈 利增速预期由负转正,结束此前连续四年的下滑趋势,其中科技创新领域盈利弹性最为显著。美联储9 月降息预期升温,美元走弱利于外资回流A股。中长期来看,居民储蓄转移、政策红利释放及盈利周期 回升三大动力依然稳固,A股市场中期慢涨格局有望延续。 财信证券认为,周四,A股大盘在高位股普遍调整的背景下冲高回落,上证指数仍收涨,深证成指和创 业板指小幅下跌,三大指数也还处于五日均线之上,全市场成交额维持在2.4万亿元水平,反映出当前 市场承接动能依然较强,大盘继续处于震荡上行趋势之中,但部分资金存在高低切换需求。中期来看, 在国内经济基本面温和修复、政策面持续发力、资金面维持宽裕以及海外贸易扰动暂时平稳落地的背景 下,继续维持指数震荡偏强运行、积极参与A股市场 ...
中国资产吸引力大增!韩国“欧巴”迷上中国科技股
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-22 00:25
近期,韩国股民狂买中国资产成为热点话题。 有数据显示,中国市场已成为韩国的第二大海外投资目的地。根据韩国证券存托结算院(KSD)的最新 数据,截至8月20日,年内投资于中国香港股市的累计交易额已超过58亿美元,仅次于美国市场。另有 统计显示,年内韩国基金对中国股票净买入约4.99亿美元,此前3年累计为净卖出9.85亿美元,这表明韩 国投资者对中国市场的配置信心逐步恢复。值得一提的是,在韩国上市的中国主题ETF回报非常亮眼, 甚至有产品月度收益超60%,表现优于多数美国指数ETF。 中国市场究竟有哪些吸引力?韩国投资者的买入力度有多大?证券时报记者梳理数据,采访相关人士进 行剖析。 从"在华经历者"到Z世代入场 "想了解和投资中国股票的年轻人越来越多。"韩国人李哲告诉记者,他曾就职于山东一家韩系汽车配件 厂,目前从事贸易工作。李哲本人就有投资中国的股票。"我本来想在中国的证券公司开设账户,但外 国人开户的流程和需要的资料比较复杂。所以只能回到韩国国内的券商开户。好处是方便,但现在只能 投资港股,不能直接投资A股。"李哲告诉记者,十多年前投资中国股票的韩国人并不多,他认识的韩 国人里,主要还是在中国工作过,熟悉中 ...
中国资产吸引力大增 韩国资金加速布局
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-21 18:40
Group 1: Investment Trends - South Korean investors have increasingly turned to Chinese assets, with China becoming the second-largest overseas investment destination for South Korea, following the US [1][2] - As of August 20, the cumulative trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market by South Korean investors exceeded $5.8 billion, with net purchases of Chinese stocks amounting to approximately $499 million in 2023, reversing a trend of net selling over the previous three years [1][3] - The number of active stock trading accounts in South Korea reached 69.3 million, indicating a highly active retail investor base [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Korean investors are particularly interested in high-growth sectors such as electric vehicles, batteries, artificial intelligence, and technology [3][5] - The total custodial funds of South Korean investors in the Hong Kong stock market increased from $1.8 billion in January to $2.53 billion by August 2023, reflecting a positive shift in investor sentiment [3] - Korean asset management companies are launching products linked to Chinese assets, including ETFs focused on electric vehicles and AI [5] Group 3: Institutional Response - Korean financial institutions are actively organizing events and promotional activities to attract investors to Chinese markets, such as commission-free trading promotions [4][5] - Kiwoom Securities reported a 38.46% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2023, driven by overseas trading fees, particularly from the Greater China region [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the positive sentiment towards Chinese assets among South Korean investors will continue, driven by favorable policies and a recovering market [6][7] - The anticipated revaluation of Chinese stocks is expected to persist until 2026, supported by economic stimulus measures and structural changes in the market [6][7] - The competitiveness of China's electric vehicle and robotics industries is gaining attention, with expectations of significant growth in these sectors [7]
香港交易所(00388):成交量创多项单日记录,半年度业绩创历史新高
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-20 13:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [1] Core Views - The company achieved record high semi-annual performance with total revenue and other income reaching HKD 141 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at HKD 85 billion, up 39% year-on-year [7] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to improved investment sentiment supported by mainland policies, leading to increased participation from mainland investors in offshore markets, which boosted trading volumes in the Hong Kong stock market [7] - The report forecasts continued strong growth for the company, with expected shareholder profits of HKD 174.19 billion, HKD 192.62 billion, and HKD 207.88 billion for 2025-2027, corresponding to growth rates of 33%, 11%, and 8% respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million HKD) for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is projected at 20,516, 22,374, 27,785, 30,524, and 32,970 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.16%, 9.06%, 24.18%, 9.86%, and 8.01% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million HKD) for the same years is expected to be 11,862, 13,050, 17,419, 19,262, and 20,788, with growth rates of 17.70%, 10.02%, 33.48%, 10.58%, and 7.92% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 9.36, 10.29, 13.74, 15.19, and 16.40 for the years 2023A to 2027E [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is HKD 441.20, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 559.37 billion [5] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47.16 for 2023, decreasing to 26.91 by 2027 [1][5] - The company has a book value per share of HKD 44.89 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 9.83 [6][5]
首席点评:政策红利与市场信心共振,A股迈入百万亿新时代
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 02:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 18, 2025, the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time, driven by top - level policies and financial policies, with significant inflow of incremental funds and strong economic resilience [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, in a policy window period. There may be more incremental policies in the second half of the year, and external risks are gradually easing. The stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating and structural differentiation exists [2][11]. - Precious metals may show an oscillating trend under the warming of interest - rate cut expectations, with long - term drivers still providing support for gold [3][19]. - The trend of crude oil needs to pay attention to the OPEC production increase situation, and the unemployment rate in the US may rise in August [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fluctuated slightly. The previous trading day saw an increase in the stock index, with the communication sector leading the rise and the real - estate sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.81 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 7.542 billion yuan on August 15. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive [2][11]. - **Precious Metals**: Last week, unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver. Although there are factors supporting the price, the current high price makes gold hesitant to rise, and gold and silver may oscillate [3][19]. - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rose 0.7%. The US - Russia talks over the weekend had no clear conclusion. The unemployment rate in the US may rise to 4.3% in August, and attention should be paid to OPEC production increase [4][13]. b. Main News of the Day - **International News**: US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House, and a trilateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine may be held. Trump also said he would not rule out sending US troops to participate in peace - keeping missions in Ukraine [5]. - **Domestic News**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and consolidating the real - estate market [6]. - **Industry News**: The National Medical Insurance Work Symposium announced nine key tasks, including starting to formulate the DRG 3.0 grouping plan, improving the maternity insurance system, and exploring national unified follow - up procurement after the expiration of the centralized procurement agreement [7]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the key varieties part, the market is in a favorable period, but sector rotation and differentiation need attention [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.778%. The bond market may continue to be under pressure, and the price difference between new and old bonds and long - and short - term bonds may widen [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: As mentioned before, pay attention to OPEC production increase and the US unemployment rate [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night trading fell 1.04%. The overall domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory continued to accumulate. It is short - term bullish [14][15]. - **Rubber**: The price support mainly comes from the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the price may oscillate and fall [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin futures were weak. The market is still mainly driven by supply and demand, and the inventory digestion is slow. Pay attention to the autumn restocking market and cost changes [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures are in the process of inventory digestion. The prices have stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: As described above, affected by inflation data and other factors, it shows an oscillating trend [3][19]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the balance of multiple factors, and attention should be paid to US tariffs and other factors [20][21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by factors such as US tariffs and supply - demand [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, demand is also growing, and inventory is in a complex state. There is a risk of correction after the previous rise, and short - selling should be cautious [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. It is expected to rise in the second half of the year, and the market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated narrowly. The market is under pressure, and the multi - empty game is intensifying [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The US Department of Agriculture adjusted the soybean production forecast, and the soybean futures inventory is tightening. The price of the domestic protein meal has strong support [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report has a neutral - to - bullish impact on the market. Affected by news from Indonesia, the short - term trend of oils and fats is expected to be bullish and oscillating [29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is expected to be oscillating and bearish, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, and is expected to be oscillating [30]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose. The domestic cotton market supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend may be oscillating and bullish, but the upside space is limited [31]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated slightly. The SCFIS European line price decreased. The market is concerned about the off - season freight rate decline rate and the support of deep discounts [32][33].
政策红利与市场信心共振 A股迈入百万亿新时代 -20250819
申银万国期货研究· 2025-08-19 01:06
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the A-share market has entered a new era with a total market value surpassing 100 trillion yuan, driven by government policies and market confidence [1] - The State Council's top-level deployment aims to consolidate the economic recovery, supported by a series of financial policies including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [1] - Significant inflows of capital from public funds, private equity, insurance funds, and foreign investments indicate strong investor confidence in policy benefits and economic transformation [1] Group 2 - The article discusses the performance of major indices, noting that the US stock indices experienced slight fluctuations, with the communication sector leading gains and real estate lagging [2] - It mentions that the financing balance increased by 7.542 billion yuan, reaching 20,485.99 billion yuan, reflecting a continuation of loose domestic liquidity [2] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of sustained market performance, although sector rotation and structural differentiation are expected [2] Group 3 - The article reports that the US inflation data exceeded expectations, putting pressure on gold and silver prices, with the PPI rising by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year [3] - It notes that the US Treasury Secretary indicated a significant likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, which could influence market expectations [3] - The overall market sentiment is affected by concerns over employment data and the economic outlook, leading to a potential for gold and silver prices to fluctuate [3] Group 4 - The article highlights that the SC night market for crude oil rose by 0.7%, while the US initial jobless claims decreased against a backdrop of low layoffs [4] - It emphasizes that domestic demand remains weak, which may push the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August [4] - The article suggests that traders are reducing bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to rising inflation concerns [4] Group 5 - The article outlines key domestic news, including the emphasis by Premier Li Qiang on enhancing macro policy effectiveness and stabilizing market expectations [6] - It discusses the need to stimulate consumption and promote effective investment, particularly in the real estate sector [6] - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced nine key tasks to improve healthcare financing, indicating a focus on healthcare reforms [7]
新华视评:别让政策红利被市场吞噬
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 02:34
Core Viewpoint - Recent policies aimed at reducing childcare costs and promoting consumption have been undermined by some businesses increasing product prices, effectively negating the benefits of subsidies for families [1] Group 1: Policy Impact - Various policies, including childcare subsidies and the gradual implementation of free preschool education, have alleviated the financial burden on families [1] - These measures are intended to boost consumer confidence and spending [1] Group 2: Market Response - Some retailers have exploited promotional activities as a pretext to raise prices on essential baby products, such as milk powder, diapers, and complementary foods [1] - Reports from numerous parents on social media indicate that prices for these products have increased by several to tens of yuan, which diminishes the actual value of the subsidies received [1] Group 3: Market Integrity - The integrity of market order is at risk as certain businesses prioritize profit over the intended benefits of government policies [1] - It is crucial to ensure that policy benefits are not eroded by opportunistic pricing strategies from businesses [1]