Workflow
资金流入新兴市场
icon
Search documents
摩根资管:若资金持续流入港A市场 HIBOR跌幅或较预期更大
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 08:06
Group 1 - Morgan Asset Management's Chief Market Strategist for Asia Pacific, Xu Changtai, predicts that with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and the expectation of a depreciating US dollar, funds may flow into emerging markets, benefiting the Hong Kong A-share market [1] - Xu estimates that the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) will continue to have room for decline, potentially more than expected, which will positively impact the Hong Kong residential property market, with a better environment anticipated in 2026 compared to this year [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 0.25% in both October and December of this year, with further cuts of 2-3 times in 2026, bringing the long-term federal funds rate down to a neutral level of 3% [1] Group 2 - Historical data suggests that during previous rate-cutting cycles, such as in 2019, US stock performance was strong, leading to a preference for technology-related sectors, while retail and industrial stocks are expected to be more volatile [2] - The US dollar is currently stable, but with the US facing fiscal and trade deficits and entering a rate-cutting cycle, alongside Europe nearing the end of its rate cuts and Japan potentially raising rates, a depreciation of the dollar is anticipated, estimated at 5-7% over the next 12-18 months [2]