以下文章来源于格隆 ，作者万连山 格隆 . 一个游走于资本市场与佛祖之间的浪子。我可以生，可以死，我大笑，由天决定！ 本文来自微信公众号： 格隆 ，作者：万连山，原文标题：《脆弱的繁荣》，题图来自：视觉中国 迟到了整整48天后，原本应于10月3日公布的美国9月非农报告，终于出炉了。 至少表面上看，数据非常强劲。 新增就业人数11.9万，较预期的5.1万人翻倍，更远高于达拉斯联储估算的3万人/月就业平衡水平。 这份数据直接打破了市场对12月美联储立即降息的普遍幻想，也是美股在当天高开低走的主要因 素。 但态度的转变，并不坚决。 | 行业(千人) | 占比 (%) | | 棱8月变化 | 2025-09 | 2025-08 | 2025-07 | 近3月平均 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总体新增非农 | 100.0 | | 123 | 119 | -4 | 72 | 62 | | 私人部门 | 81.5 | | 79 | 97 | 18 | ર્સ | 57 | | 采矿业 | -2.5 | | 0 | -3 | -3 | -4 | ...

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September showed a surprising increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding expectations of 51,000, which has implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2][4]. Employment Data Summary - Total non-farm employment increased by 119,000, with private sector jobs contributing 81.5% of the total [3]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, indicating a potential imbalance in the labor market despite job growth [4][22]. - The service sector was the primary driver of job growth, adding 87,000 jobs, with notable contributions from leisure and hospitality [9][10]. Sector Performance - The leisure and hospitality sector added 47,000 jobs, reversing previous declines, while healthcare added 43,000 jobs, reflecting ongoing demand due to an aging population [9][10]. - Government employment increased by 22,000, primarily in education, as schools ramped up hiring for the new academic year [10][12]. - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a decline of 28,000 jobs, highlighting sector-specific challenges [3]. Data Adjustments and Methodology - August's job numbers were revised down significantly, with a total downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs over July and August, raising questions about the reliability of the data [4][14]. - The discrepancy between establishment survey (119,000 jobs) and household survey (251,000 jobs) indicates structural differences in data collection methods [18][19]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.4%, with a notable influx of younger workers, but this also contributed to the rise in unemployment [23][25]. - Job growth was concentrated in lower-wage sectors, leading to a decline in average wage growth, with average hourly earnings increasing only by 0.2% [29][30]. Economic Outlook - The strong job numbers may be a short-term rebound rather than a trend reversal, with potential risks from tightening credit conditions and global demand slowdown [39][40]. - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with mixed signals from the labor market, leading to internal divisions on interest rate policy [36][38].

Summary of Conference Call on Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals industry is currently experiencing a high-level fluctuation, awaiting demand recovery and liquidity easing to trigger a main upward trend in prices [1][3][13] - The expectation of a soft landing for the US economy, along with the first interest rate cut, has stabilized overseas demand, but the main upward wave in non-ferrous metal prices has not yet started [1][3] Key Points and Arguments Market Outlook - The performance expectations for various non-ferrous sub-sectors in 2026 are generally optimistic, with an expected increase of approximately 20% or more [1][4] - The anticipated main upward wave is expected around the end of Q1 2026, driven by interest rate cuts, the end of the US balance sheet reduction, and overseas reconstruction demand [1][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions have normalized, reducing their impact on market sentiment, but the supply-side constraints are stronger than demand influences [1][6] - It is expected that most metals will remain in a supply-demand imbalance in 2026, with supply constraints being more definitive [1][6] Specific Metal Insights - **Gold**: Short-term trading is overheated, with valuations stretched. A potential adjustment is expected after geopolitical events cool down, but long-term prospects remain positive due to economic recovery and inflation [1][7] - **Copper**: Short-term demand is suppressed by high prices, but mining and smelting companies may reduce production, leading to a supply-demand imbalance from Q4 2025 through 2026 [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum sector is recommended as a top investment choice due to its strong dividend attributes and resilience in profits, with a significant upside potential if prices rise [1][10][11] Small Metals Perspective - **Cobalt**: Inventory is decreasing, indicating potential for price increases [2][12] - **Lithium**: Currently under pressure but nearing a bottom in supply-demand dynamics, strategic positioning is advised [2][12] - **Tungsten**: Long-term outlook is positive due to supply shortages and geopolitical factors [2][12] Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment for the non-ferrous metals industry remains optimistic, with recommendations to actively monitor and allocate resources to various metal sectors to capitalize on future growth opportunities [1][14] - The copper market is expected to see a price increase and earnings per share (EPS) growth, with mainstream companies' valuations returning to reasonable levels [1][9][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Bullish [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bearish [1] - **Gold**: Bullish [4] - **Silver**: Bullish [4] - **Copper**: Bullish [4] - **Aluminum**: Bullish, Alumina: Bearish [4] - **Nickel**: Sideways [4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Sideways [5] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sideways [5] - **Steel (Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Cautiously Bearish [5][6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Cautiously Bearish [6] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously Bearish, Glass: Sideways [6] - **Crude Oil**: Sideways [8] - **Methanol**: Bullish [2][8] - **Polyolefins**: Bearish [8] - **Cotton**: Bearish [8] - **Natural Rubber**: Sideways [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Equity Index**: Despite pre - holiday caution, the upward drive remains unchanged due to domestic economic recovery and the attractiveness of A - shares in global asset allocation [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Market concerns persist, and the risk of long - end adjustment has not subsided, affected by the relatively optimistic outlook for the equity market [1] - **Precious Metals**: The US economic resilience and potential Fed rate cuts support the bullish outlook for gold and silver, although there are risks such as government shutdown and geopolitical issues [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Supply - side constraints and policy factors influence the price trends of copper, aluminum, and nickel, with different outlooks for each metal [4] - **Mineral Resources**: The supply - demand balance, production capacity, and policy factors determine the price trends of lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, steel, coking coal, coke, soda ash, and glass [5][6] - **Energy**: The supply - demand relationship, geopolitical factors, and production trends affect the price trends of crude oil, methanol, and polyolefins [8] - **Agricultural Products**: Supply pressure and demand recovery speed impact the price trends of cotton, while supply and demand factors support the price of natural rubber [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index and Bonds - **Equity Index**: Last week, the A - share market was volatile at a high level, with the ChiNext Plate remaining hot. The trading volume decreased to about 2.17 trillion yuan. Domestically, industrial profits improved, and overseas, the Fed's rate - cut uncertainty increased. The equity index is expected to maintain a long - term bullish trend [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market was weak in the first half of last week and stabilized in the second half. Market concerns remain, and the long - end adjustment risk is still significant due to the relatively optimistic equity market outlook [1] 3.2 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold's long - term bullish logic remains clear, and silver prices are accelerating upward due to better - than - expected US economic data and increased lease rates [4] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints, while aluminum has support from supply constraints, and alumina is bearish due to supply surplus. Nickel prices have support at the bottom [4] 3.3 Mineral Resources - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand is strong, and the price is expected to remain sideways before the National Day due to potential resource - end disturbances [5] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand is loose, and the price is expected to be weak and sideways [5] - **Steel**: Rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore prices are expected to be weak due to weak demand and potential inventory accumulation during the holiday [5][6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are under pressure due to the weakening of downstream procurement demand [6] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash supply is likely to increase, and the price is expected to be bearish. Glass supply - demand is balanced, and the price is sensitive to policy [6] 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and there are opportunities for short - selling at high prices due to OPEC+ production increase and weak demand [8] - **Methanol**: New long positions can be entered due to the significant decrease in overseas plant operating rates [2][8] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure will increase significantly in the fourth quarter, and the price is expected to fall [8] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The price is under pressure due to strong supply expectations and insufficient demand recovery [8] - **Natural Rubber**: The supply disturbance weakens, and the demand remains stable, with support at the bottom [8] 3.6 Specific Strategies - Sell the put option NI2512P120000 on Shanghai Nickel and hold it [2] - Hold the previous short position on Industrial Silicon SI2511 [2] - Enter new long positions on Methanol MA601 [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the narrative of a "weak dollar" has become deeply ingrained in the market, influencing global asset prices, particularly benefiting emerging markets over developed markets since September [2][10] - The performance of global stock markets has shown a clear trend where emerging markets, particularly Brazil and South Korea, have outperformed developed markets due to their sensitivity to the dollar index and the effects of AI and metal mining [2][10] - Precious metals, especially gold and silver, have emerged as the strongest sectors under the weak dollar narrative, outperforming industrial metals like copper [2][22] Group 2 - The report discusses two potential paths for the U.S. economy: one led by the service sector, which could lead to recession and a rebound in the dollar, and another led by manufacturing, which could result in a soft landing and a more gradual weakening of the dollar [31][34] - The divergence between the service and manufacturing sectors in the U.S. has been the longest since 2000, with the service sector showing resilience while manufacturing struggles under high interest rates [31][33] - The report suggests that if manufacturing leads the recovery, the extent of the dollar's weakness will depend on the comparative strength of the U.S. economy versus non-U.S. economies [34] Group 3 - For Chinese assets, the report outlines two scenarios: one where a rebound in the dollar due to increased risk aversion could lead to capital outflows from non-U.S. markets, and another where a recovery in U.S. manufacturing could bolster export demand for Chinese goods [3][49] - The report emphasizes that despite recent gains, Chinese assets still have a significant valuation gap compared to developed markets, suggesting potential resilience in the face of dollar fluctuations [3][45] - The potential recovery of global manufacturing could lead to improved export orders for China, supporting domestic demand and corporate profitability [3][51] Group 4 - The report indicates that the reliance on the weak dollar narrative may not sustain a long-term bull market for Chinese equities, suggesting that a shift in market dynamics may be necessary [3][57] - It recommends investors prepare for changes driven by domestic improvements and global economic shifts, focusing on sectors like upstream resources and capital goods that could benefit from a recovery in manufacturing [3][58] - The report also highlights the potential for consumer sectors, particularly travel-related industries, to see a rebound as travel data improves compared to previous years [3][62]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - International silver prices surged by 2.46% to $45.994 per ounce, marking the highest level since May 2011 [1] - International platinum prices increased by 3.61% to $1611.52 per ounce [1] - Gold prices rose by 0.29% to $3759.895 per ounce, while palladium prices climbed by 1.7% to $1305.3 per ounce [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, consistent with previous values, while the overall PCE index rose by 0.3% month-on-month [2][4] - Personal income in August grew by $95.7 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, and personal consumption expenditures rose by $129.2 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [4] Group 3: Consumer Confidence - The U.S. consumer confidence index for September fell to 55.1, a decrease of approximately 5% from August [5] - The current economic conditions index dropped from 61.7 in August to 60.4 in September, while the consumer expectations index fell from 55.9 to 51.7 [5] - Nearly 70% of consumers expect inflation to exceed income growth in the next year, and about 65% anticipate an increase in unemployment rates [5][6] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman emphasized the need for preemptive interest rate cuts to address worsening labor market conditions [7][8] - Recent data indicates increasing vulnerability in the labor market, prompting calls for immediate action from the Federal Open Market Committee [8] - The uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts has increased due to strong economic data, leading to a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve [11] Group 5: Gold Price Projections - Multiple institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with JPMorgan predicting spot gold prices could exceed $4000 per ounce by Q1 2026 [12] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3700 per ounce for gold by the end of 2025, with potential for prices to rise above $4500 per ounce [13] - The ongoing concerns regarding fiscal stability in developed countries and persistent central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold's long-term investment appeal [13]

Group 1 - The core inflation indicator, core PCE, remains stable at 2.9% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, indicating a steady economic outlook [1][3] - The report suggests a clearer path towards interest rate cuts, with a 0.2% month-on-month increase in core PCE and no signs of inflation rebound, supporting the notion of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy [3][4] - Market reactions include a 300-point surge in the Dow Jones and rising gold prices, indicating a potential influx of capital into A-shares, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors sensitive to interest rates [4][5] Group 2 - Long-term investment focus should be on core assets such as leading internet companies in Hong Kong and consumer blue chips in A-shares, which are most sensitive to global liquidity conditions [5] - Growth sectors like semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals, which rely on long-term capital, may benefit from reduced pressure on valuations due to anticipated interest rate cuts [5][6] - The potential risks include the impact of a U.S. government shutdown on key economic data and the delayed effects of tariffs imposed by former President Trump, which have yet to fully materialize [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite deviations in unemployment and inflation from the Federal Reserve's targets, the risks of further deterioration are limited, indicating a cautious stance on interest rate cuts rather than aggressive reductions [1][2] - Tom Barkin emphasizes the focus on achieving a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, balancing inflation and unemployment, and suggests that while both metrics are moving in the wrong direction, the downside risks are minimal [1][2] - The recent Federal Reserve decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points reflects growing concerns about the slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with a long-term view of maintaining rates unchanged to assess the inflation risks from tariff policies [1][2][3] Group 2 - There is a significant internal division among FOMC policymakers regarding the future of interest rates, with some advocating for continued rate cuts to mitigate employment risks, while others express concerns about potential inflation [2] - The FOMC dot plot indicates a median forecast suggesting three rate cuts this year, with a possibility of one more next year, but also highlights a split among officials regarding the timing and necessity of these cuts [3] - Most Federal Reserve officials believe that given the current robust outlook for the U.S. economy, there is no need for substantial further rate cuts next year, despite some officials advocating for more decisive action in response to labor market weaknesses [2][3]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently facing short-term fluctuations due to trading structure and risk appetite, but the long-term bull market logic relies on a trend of sustained capital inflow, suggesting that adding positions during pullbacks is a better strategy [1][12] - The A-share market is entering a period of consolidation, with two main factors influencing this judgment: the technology sector, a key driver of the bull market, is experiencing a relatively crowded chip structure, and the marginal weakening of the economic fundamentals makes it difficult for the market style to shift to low-position consumer and cyclical sectors [1][12] Group 2 - The report highlights a decline in market profitability, with the technology sector's chip structure becoming relatively crowded, necessitating a time-for-space approach. Since the market's rise starting June 23, the index has increased by 18.18%, with the TMT sector contributing 42% [2][13] - Current unfavorable factors for the technology sector include: 1) a decrease in market profitability and overall risk appetite, with only 32% of stocks rising this week, marking a low point in this rally; 2) the TMT sector's trading volume has reached 37%, and historically, when this figure exceeds 40%, a pullback typically follows; 3) the ChiNext and STAR 50 indices are showing signs of divergence in volume and price; 4) the "calendar effect" before the National Day indicates a lower probability of index gains, with a 60% chance of decline in the five trading days leading up to the holiday [2][13] Group 3 - Economic data has shown marginal weakening, making it difficult to shift styles to consumer and cyclical sectors. In August, production, investment, consumption, and exports all weakened compared to July. The September LPR remains unchanged, with no intention to cut rates. CPI in August was -0.4% year-on-year, and PPI was -2.9%, indicating a narrowing decline [3][14] - The report suggests that the long-term bull market is not yet over, with indicators such as equity risk premium (ERP), the rate of economic securitization, and the ongoing increase in deposits at non-bank financial institutions indicating significant upside potential for A-shares [3][14] Group 4 - The report anticipates that the narrative of a soft landing and re-inflation in the U.S. economy will return in the fourth quarter. Despite recent trade tensions and disappointing non-farm payroll reports, employment data is expected to be revised upward, and the economy is showing signs of steady growth, with the second quarter GDP growth revised to 3.3% [4][27] - The report notes that core inflation remains sticky, with indicators showing a potential for re-inflation in the fourth quarter. The housing market is expected to contribute to inflationary pressures as mortgage rates decline and loan application activity rises [4][27] Group 5 - Compared to the U.S., the Eurozone faces greater fiscal challenges, which may lead to a rebound in the dollar index and make U.S. stocks the best choice among major asset classes. The Eurozone's economic data has been weaker than that of the U.S., and the euro's significant appreciation has reduced export competitiveness [6][44] - The report indicates that speculative long positions in the euro have reached historically high levels, while short positions remain low, suggesting that there is still considerable room for adjustment in the trading structure [6][44]

Core Insights - The report from Daiwa emphasizes that the weakening of the US dollar has a more significant impact on emerging markets, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks than potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - A "soft landing" for the US economy would be beneficial for emerging market equities, while weak US economic data could prolong dollar weakness, increasing demand for currency hedging and enhancing liquidity support for emerging markets and the Chinese market by the end of 2025 [1] Market Conditions - The Asian market is currently in a risk-on environment, with the MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index rising approximately 10% since July [1] - Key drivers for this market performance include easing geopolitical risks, favorable regional policies, and market expectations regarding the potential resumption of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1]