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今年首只50年超长期特别国债“发飞”,供给压力下资金面担忧加剧
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-25 13:42
Group 1 - The first issuance of a 50-year special government bond in 2023 had a weighted average winning rate of 2.1%, which is higher than the yield of similar maturity bonds in the interbank market and up by approximately 19 basis points from the low point in February [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance issued a total of 390 billion yuan in government bonds on May 23, with a cumulative issuance of 4.69 trillion yuan in the first four months of this year, exceeding the same period last year by over 1 trillion yuan [2][7] - The issuance of the 50-year special government bond was met with weak demand, as indicated by the higher winning rate compared to the secondary market, suggesting a lack of strong market sentiment [3][5] Group 2 - Following the announcement of the bidding results, long-term bond yields in the secondary market rose significantly, with the 24 special government bond yield increasing to 2.07% before settling at 2.055% [4] - The market experienced a "first suppress then rise" pattern due to supply shocks from government bonds, with the 10-year bond weighted rate at 1.67% aligning with expectations, while the 50-year bond's rate was 7 basis points higher than the secondary market [5][8] - The central bank's actions, including a 500 billion yuan MLF operation, indicate a focus on maintaining liquidity in the face of increased government bond supply [8][9] Group 3 - The issuance of government bonds has surged this year, with a total of 10.56 trillion yuan in interest rate bonds issued in the first four months, marking an increase of 3.31 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [7] - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in super long-term special government bonds this year, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year, alongside 500 billion yuan in special bonds to support state-owned banks [7][9] - Analysts suggest that the market's focus will shift to the balance of supply and demand, with the central bank's stance on monetary policy being crucial for maintaining a stable funding environment [6][8]