Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds in China is set to conclude this year, with a total issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan planned for 2024, aimed at supporting major national strategies and key areas of security and equipment renewal [1][3]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special government bonds, with 50-year and 20-year bonds to be issued on October 10 and October 14, respectively [1]. - As of October 9, a total of 1.23 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds has been issued this year, leaving 70 billion yuan yet to be issued [2]. - The final bond issuance on October 14 will consist of 400 billion yuan in 20-year bonds, following a 300 billion yuan issuance of 50-year bonds on October 10 [2]. Group 2: Fund Utilization - The 1.3 trillion yuan from ultra-long-term special government bonds is allocated as follows: 300 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement, 200 billion yuan for equipment renewal, and 800 billion yuan for "two major" construction projects [3]. - The State Development and Reform Commission has allocated the fourth batch of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement, completing the annual allocation of 300 billion yuan for this purpose [3]. - From January to August, 330 million people have claimed subsidies for consumer goods replacement, resulting in over 2 trillion yuan in related sales [3].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to have limited impact on the liquidity and bond markets, while also supporting economic growth through fiscal policy measures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Liquidity - Analysts believe that the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will have a limited effect on liquidity due to the long issuance cycle and gradual pace, which helps to reduce market volatility [2]. - The first issuance of the 30-year ultra-long-term special government bond on May 17 did not lead to significant fluctuations in the short-term policy interest rates, as evidenced by the DR007 remaining stable at 1.8421% [2]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is expected to alleviate the "asset shortage" in the bond market by increasing the supply of safe assets, thus balancing supply and demand [2]. - The gradual issuance schedule is anticipated to smooth out any potential supply pressure on the bond market, as the market had already anticipated the supply increase [2]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The issuance of these bonds signals a proactive fiscal policy aimed at supporting economic development, which may help alleviate local government financial pressures and support infrastructure growth [3][4]. - The introduction of ultra-long-term special government bonds is seen as a step towards promoting interest rate marketization and providing a reference for pricing long-term local government bonds [3]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - There remains potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, particularly in the second quarter, to support fiscal policy and provide banks with low-cost long-term funding [4][5]. - The central bank's recent actions, such as the equal volume renewal of MLF, indicate a cautious approach to managing liquidity without immediate rate cuts [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds is characterized by a steady pace, aiming to minimize liquidity impact on the market [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The second ultra-long-term special government bond was issued on May 24, with a total competitive bidding amount of 40 billion yuan and a winning yield of 2.49% [1]. - The issuance schedule for this year includes 7 bonds with a 20-year term, 12 with a 30-year term, and 3 with a 50-year term, indicating a uniform issuance pattern [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Analysts suggest that the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds will have a limited impact on liquidity, with a controlled supply pressure expected [2]. - The issuance arrangement is designed to reduce short-term liquidity shocks, and the likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio cut by the central bank in response to the bond issuance is low [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to approach investments in ultra-long-term special government bonds with caution, as market prices can fluctuate based on market conditions [3][4]. - The bonds are considered a suitable choice for conservative investors due to the high assurance of principal and interest repayment backed by national sovereign credit [4].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the 50-year ultra-long special government bonds aims to stimulate market vitality and enhance economic growth potential, with a total planned issuance of 1 trillion yuan this year [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The 50-year ultra-long special government bond has a planned issuance of 35 billion yuan, with an actual issuance amount of 35 billion yuan [1]. - The coupon rate for this bond is set at 2.53%, with interest payments made semi-annually on June 15 and December 15 each year [1]. - This is the first issuance of a 50-year ultra-long special government bond this year, with previous issuances having a maximum term of 30 years [1]. Group 2: Future Issuance Plans - In 2024, ultra-long special government bonds will include 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year terms, with a total of 22 issuances planned [2]. - The 50-year bonds will be issued three times, with the next two issuances scheduled for August and October [2]. - In June, there will be four issuances of ultra-long special government bonds, including the 50-year bond and renewals of the 30-year bond [2]. Group 3: Market Impact and Investor Considerations - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds is expected to enhance market expectations and boost confidence in economic development [1]. - Investors, both institutional and individual, are encouraged to consider their financial arrangements and risk tolerance when purchasing bonds of different maturities [2]. - The issuance schedule and interest rate risks vary across different maturities, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation by investors [2].

Group 1 - The first issuance of a 50-year special government bond in 2023 had a weighted average winning rate of 2.1%, which is higher than the yield of similar maturity bonds in the interbank market and up by approximately 19 basis points from the low point in February [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance issued a total of 390 billion yuan in government bonds on May 23, with a cumulative issuance of 4.69 trillion yuan in the first four months of this year, exceeding the same period last year by over 1 trillion yuan [2][7] - The issuance of the 50-year special government bond was met with weak demand, as indicated by the higher winning rate compared to the secondary market, suggesting a lack of strong market sentiment [3][5] Group 2 - Following the announcement of the bidding results, long-term bond yields in the secondary market rose significantly, with the 24 special government bond yield increasing to 2.07% before settling at 2.055% [4] - The market experienced a "first suppress then rise" pattern due to supply shocks from government bonds, with the 10-year bond weighted rate at 1.67% aligning with expectations, while the 50-year bond's rate was 7 basis points higher than the secondary market [5][8] - The central bank's actions, including a 500 billion yuan MLF operation, indicate a focus on maintaining liquidity in the face of increased government bond supply [8][9] Group 3 - The issuance of government bonds has surged this year, with a total of 10.56 trillion yuan in interest rate bonds issued in the first four months, marking an increase of 3.31 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [7] - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in super long-term special government bonds this year, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year, alongside 500 billion yuan in special bonds to support state-owned banks [7][9] - Analysts suggest that the market's focus will shift to the balance of supply and demand, with the central bank's stance on monetary policy being crucial for maintaining a stable funding environment [6][8]