超大规模资本投资
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高盛闭门会-亚洲首席策略师展望,2026年亚洲五大投资主题
Goldman Sachs· 2025-11-24 01:46
Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating for the Indian market, indicating a more attractive position compared to other regional markets [6][4]. Core Insights - The global economic growth forecast has been raised, with expectations of nearly 3% growth in 2025-2026, benefiting from policy easing and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - Northeast Asian stock markets have shown strong performance, with South Korea, China, and Japan rising by 80%, 35%, and 25% respectively, driven primarily by the technology sector [1][3]. - The technology sector is crucial in Northeast Asia, with approximately 80% of market capitalization linked to AI-related revenues, contributing over 90% of index gains this year [1][7][8]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to see significant profit improvements due to supply-demand imbalances in DRAM and NAND sectors [9][21]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for stock markets, with good economic growth, declining interest rates, and a weakening dollar [2]. - Global GDP growth is projected to be close to 3% in 2025 and 2026, supported by widespread policy easing [2]. Market Performance - Northeast Asia has outperformed, with notable gains in South Korea, China, and Japan, primarily driven by the technology sector [3][4]. - The Indian market is viewed positively despite high valuations, with a significant growth gap compared to other regions [6]. Currency and Investment Strategies - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate by about 3% over the next 12 months, suggesting a favorable environment for stock investments [5]. - Investors are advised to consider down protection strategies in light of potential market corrections [18][19]. Technology Sector Outlook - The global technology sector outlook remains optimistic, particularly in cloud computing and large-scale capital investments, which will benefit the Asian supply chain [9]. - Demand for smartphones, servers, and AI PCs is strong, with significant growth expected in these markets [10]. Geopolitical and Industrial Trends - The U.S. re-industrialization process presents investment opportunities in Asia, particularly in key markets like China, Japan, and Australia [17]. - China is increasing investments in advanced manufacturing to enhance its position in the global supply chain [15][16]. Future Investment Themes - The report highlights the importance of diversification in investment strategies, with a shift in focus from the U.S. to other regions offering attractive opportunities [23].