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超长地方债的逆势行情
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-04 12:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply and trading of local government bonds are tracked, including the rhythm of primary supply and the characteristics of secondary trading [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (August 25 - 29, 2025), local government bonds issued a total of 351.6 billion yuan, with 187.98 billion yuan in new special bonds and 62.62 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/Project Income" and "Special New Special Bonds" are the main investment areas for special bond funds. As of August 29, 2025, special refinancing special bonds issued 55.04 billion yuan in August, accounting for 5.6% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [3][10] - In terms of issuance pricing, the average issuance interest rate of 20 - year local bonds has significantly increased. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 20 - year and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds have continuously widened to 26.3BP and 18.8BP, especially the 20 - year variety has a faster increase rate, while the issuance spread of 30 - year local bonds has narrowed to 21.9BP [3][17] - In August, Anhui, Zhejiang, Hebei and other places are the main regions for local bond issuance. Anhui's issuance scale exceeds 80 billion yuan, Hunan's issuance scale of local bonds over 20 years reaches 34.1 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Ningxia and Gansu are higher than 2.3% [3][19] 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - The index of local government bonds over 10 years has risen against the trend. Last week, the indexes of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bonds decreased by 0.03% and increased by 0.23% respectively. The defensive property of 7 - 10 - year varieties is better than that of the same - term treasury bonds and credit bonds, while the increase of over 10 - year varieties is slightly lower than that of the same - term treasury bonds [4][23] - Government bonds in Shandong, Guangdong and other provinces have relatively active transactions, but the trading volume in Shandong and Sichuan has decreased significantly compared with the previous period. In terms of trading income, the average income of local government bonds in mainstream regions is basically above 2.2%, and the income in regions with increased trading volume exceeds 2.23% [4][23]