如何看1月信贷收支表？ ——银行资负观察20260301 研究团队：王先爽、文雪阳、乔丹 报告日期：2026年3月2日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 □ 本报告为银行资负观察20260301，债贷比价、存款挂牌、票据、央行动态、财政以及同业存单等跟踪图表见正文，本期专题我们讨论2026 年1月信贷收支表的情况。 ➢ 负债端，2026年1月，金融机构个人存款同比少增3.37万亿元，而对公存款同比多增2.80万亿元，政府存款同比多增1.79万亿元，非银存款 同比多增2.83万亿元。2026年1月社融口径政府债券净融资同比多增0.28万亿元，但政府存款同比多增量级更大，显示财政投放力度可能有 所放缓。个人存款同比大幅少增，印证存款迁徙趋势，但对公和非银同比多增5.63万亿元，量级远大于个人存款少增，难以完全以存款迁徙 解释，对此我们上期资负观察中提到，本轮存款的超额增长，一方面源自24年底同业存款自律形成的低基数，另一方面随着同业存单利率低 位，同业存款相对存单价格又有了吸引力，宏观上"非银向银行借回购，又以存款形式存回银行"的同业资负链条在恢 ...

三月债市能平稳吗：几个关键点 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： 3 月债市或维持震荡，但季末有变盘可能。 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 市 场 策 投资要点： | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 高位震荡延续，低估值防守为先 2026.02.28 2025 银行经营指标拆解：分层扩张 vs 趋同修复 2026.02.25 票息行情未止：接续力量和可挖掘的标的 2026.02.24 节前蓄势，节后可期 2026.02.23 节前冲高回落，多头趋势还在 ...

[Table_Author] 董利 分析师 陈国文 分析师 Email:dongli@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320525070001 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点： 上周长端债券收益率先升后降，短端略有上行。周中 10 年期国债收益率较 节前上升 4BP 至 1.829%，周五下降 4BP 回落至 1.788%； 1 年期国债收益率 较节前提高 1BP 至 1.33%。债券收益率上行主要受三因素影响：一是节后资 金集中到期，资金面阶段性偏紧，叠加地方债发行提速，加剧长端波动；二 是节后权益市场持续走强，对债市情绪形成一定压制；三是 10Y 下破 1.80% 后，交易盘集中止盈。在央行释放流动性、地缘政治等因素影响下，周五长 端收益率下行。 政策面，央行结构对冲，流动性总体平衡。（1）央行通过公开市场操作对冲 资金到期。节后首周，OMO 市场资金回笼量达 2.3 万亿元，为对冲资金到期 影响，投放量高达 1.57 万亿元，资金回笼规模达 7200 亿元。资金到期回 笼主要集中于周初，至周末资金投放已显著高于回笼。（2）MLF 超额续作。 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 固定收益|周度报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 周策略图谱 债市抢跑两会行情？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [分析师： Table_Author]杜渐 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260526020003 | | 010-59136690 | | dujian@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 吴棋滢 | | SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 | | SFC CE No. BQN213 | | 021-38003588 | | wuqiying@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，杜渐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/31 972918116公共联系人2026-03-01 18:30:00 [Table_Contacts] ⚫ 合意区间约束与技术形态指向震荡格局依然是当前市场的主要背景。 央行近期两次提及利率区间，或暗示合意区间大致在 1 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, covering the issuance rhythm, pricing, regional differences in the primary market, and trading characteristics in the secondary market. It shows that the issuance and trading of local government bonds have certain regional characteristics, and their performance in the secondary market lags behind that of treasury bonds and high - grade credit bonds [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - During the week before the festival (2026.2.9 - 2026.2.13), local government bonds issued a total of 322.136 billion yuan, including 195.074 billion yuan of new special bonds and 44.645 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bond funds are "ordinary/project income" and "replacing implicit debts". As of now, about 429.07 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds have been issued in February, accounting for 37.05% of the local bond issuance scale in that month [3][10]. - In terms of issuance pricing, the issuance rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds decreased by 0.8BP, 2.2BP, and 2.8BP respectively. The spread between new bonds and treasury bonds of the same term was slightly compressed, with a decline of less than 1bp, but the spread of the 30 - year variety was still similar to the reading in mid - January [3][17]. - Regionally, Hebei and Jiangxi were the main regions for local bond issuance in February. Among the regions with large issuance scales, the proportion of local bonds with a term of over 10 years issued in Henan and Zhejiang exceeded 80%, and the average coupon rates of the two regions were above 2.3%. In particular, the issuance rate of local bonds in Henan reached 2.4% [3][19]. 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - The increase of local bonds was less than that of treasury bonds of the same term. During the week before the festival, the indices of 7 - 10 - year and over 10 - year local bonds rose by 0.13% and 0.16% respectively. With the entry of funds holding bonds for the festival, treasury bonds with stronger liquidity were easier to obtain, and long - term credit bonds were also favored by some institutions due to their absolute returns. Local bonds failed to outperform treasury bonds of the same term and high - grade credit bonds [4][23]. - In terms of different provinces, government bonds in Jiangsu and Guangdong were actively traded, and the trading volumes in Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Henan increased by more than 40 transactions compared with the previous period. In addition, in regions where the average yield was above 2.25%, the trading terms were mostly extended to over 20 years. Notably, the average trading yields of local bonds in Henan and Guangxi reached 2.27% and 2.35% respectively, with average terms of 19.9 years and 18.8 years [4][23].

事件点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：1 月末，上清所债券托管量 49.71 万亿元（前值为 49.88 万亿元，下同）， 月净减 1762.93 亿元（-2045.04 亿元）；中债登债券托管量 129.60 万亿元（128.67 万亿元），月净增 9339.10 亿元（+5070.75 亿元）。上清所、中债登合计债券托管 量 179.31 万亿元（178.55 万亿元），月净增 7576.17 亿元（+3025.71 亿元）。 整体：上清所、中债登合计债券托管量环比多增 1 月上清所、中债登合计债券托管量 179.31 万亿元（178.55 万亿元），月净增 7576.17 亿元（+3025.71 亿元），环比增量回升。 上清所债券托管量 49.71 万亿元（49.88 万亿元），月净减 1762.93 亿元（-2045.04 亿元），环比较 12 月少减；中债登债券托管量 129.60 万亿元（128.67 万亿元）， 月净增 93 ...

债 券 研 春节期间不可错过的事情 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 国内篇 本报告导读： 经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升带来的扰 动。 投资要点： 风险提示：流动性超预期收紧；经济修复大幅加速；债券供给放量。 | | | | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | | | 杜润琛(分析师) | | | 021-38031034 | | | durunchen@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525110004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 央行视角下的货币财政协同与存款搬 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics in the week from February 2nd to February 6th, 2026 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds issued a total of 579.7 billion yuan, including 134.3 billion yuan of new special bonds and 325.6 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Replacing implicit debts" and "ordinary/project income" are the main investment areas of special bond funds. As of now, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in February has reached 363.7 billion yuan, accounting for 40.3% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds have all increased marginally. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds have widened to 21.1BP, 20.9BP, and 16.7BP respectively [2][16] - In February, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Henan and other provinces are the main regions for local bond issuance. Jiangxi issued 69.1 billion yuan of 7 - 10 - year local bonds. The average coupon rates of local government bonds in Tibet and Tianjin are relatively high, both above 2.45% [2][19] 2. Secondary Trading Characteristics - Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes decreased by 0.06% and increased by 0.02% respectively compared with the previous week, performing worse than the same - term treasury bonds [3][21] - The trading activity of government bonds in Guangdong, Fujian, and Hubei has increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 71, 29, and 22 transactions respectively. The trading volume of local bonds in Sichuan has decreased significantly [3][21] - The average trading term of Guangxi government bonds has been significantly extended, from the previous week's level to 12.7 years, a 10.5 - year increase. The average trading term of Shandong government bonds is relatively the longest, at 27.0 years. The average trading yields of Shandong and Zhejiang government bonds are both above 2.3% [3][21]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the bond market in China, with a long-term bullish outlook on the bond market despite short-term fluctuations [1][15]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Long-term Bullish Outlook**: The company maintains a long-term bullish view on the bond market, with expectations of upward trends despite potential short-term volatility, particularly after the Spring Festival [1][10]. 2. **High Real Interest Rates**: China's real interest rates, measured by the 10-year government bond yield relative to CPI, remain high at approximately 1.1168, which is conducive to economic growth and necessitates a low-interest environment [2][4]. 3. **International Comparisons**: Historical data from developed economies shows that exiting low-interest environments takes considerable time, suggesting that China may also require a prolonged period to stabilize its interest rates [3][4]. 4. **Government Debt Levels**: The increasing scale of government debt, projected to rise to over 70 trillion for central government bonds and 80 trillion for local government bonds by 2026, indicates significant fiscal pressure that necessitates a low-interest environment [4][5]. 5. **Banking Sector Stability**: The banking sector's net interest margin has been declining, from approximately 2.1% in 2020 to 1.42% in 2025, which impacts profitability and necessitates a stable interest rate environment to maintain financial stability [6][7]. 6. **Insurance Sector Growth**: The insurance sector has seen rapid growth, with new premium income reaching 212.6 billion in January 2026, a 27.6% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand for bonds from non-bank financial institutions [8][9]. 7. **Bond Market Demand**: There is a significant demand for bonds from various sectors, including insurance, as large amounts of fixed deposits are maturing and being converted into insurance products and other financial instruments [9][10]. 8. **Interest Rate Projections**: The 10-year government bond yield is expected to remain within the range of 1.7% to 1.9%, with a potential decline to 1.6% if interest rates are cut further [10][11]. 9. **Investment Strategies**: The company recommends focusing on high liquidity government bonds and credit bonds, with an emphasis on safety and yield, particularly in the context of expected low interest rates and potential market volatility [22][23]. Additional Important Content - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination**: The need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to support domestic demand is emphasized, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs [15][16]. - **Asset Management Products**: The total assets of asset management products have reached 120 trillion, reflecting a growing trend in the financial market that requires careful monitoring [17][18]. - **Regional Investment Insights**: Specific regions such as Beijing and Guangxi are highlighted for their stable investment opportunities, with a focus on local government bonds and enterprises that are financially sound [26][29]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic outlook presented during the conference call, focusing on the bond market dynamics, fiscal pressures, and investment strategies in the context of China's economic landscape.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the rhythm of primary supply and the characteristics of secondary trading, to provide an overview of the local government bond market [10][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week (January 19 - 23, 2026), local government bonds issued a total of 231.571 billion yuan, including 64.421 billion yuan in new special bonds and 117.848 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. The main investment areas of special bond funds are "replacing implicit debts" and "ordinary/project income" [10]. - As of January 23, 2026, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in January was about 254.272 billion yuan, accounting for 29.45% of the local bond issuance scale in that month [10]. - In terms of issuance pricing, the issuance interest rates of 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local bonds decreased by 2.2BP, 3.3BP, and 5.8BP respectively, with a relatively large weekly decline. The spread between new bonds and Treasury bonds of the same maturity has been significantly compressed, especially for the 20 - year and 30 - year varieties, which have reached the lowest level since late August last year [14]. - At the beginning of the year, Sichuan, Shandong, and Zhejiang were the main regions for local bond issuance. Shandong and Hubei had a proportion of local bonds with a maturity of over 10 years exceeding 80%, and the average issuance interest rates in both regions were above 2.3%. In particular, the issuance interest rate of local bonds in Hubei reached 2.44% [17]. 3.2 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Local government bonds have risen with shrinking trading volume for two consecutive weeks. Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indexes rose by 0.24% and 0.72% respectively. The over - 10 - year local bonds significantly outperformed high - grade credit bonds, while the 7 - 10 - year varieties slightly outperformed Treasury bonds of the same maturity. The latter's cumulative increase in the past four weeks was second only to high - grade credit bonds, indicating its stability [20]. - In terms of provinces, government bonds in Zhejiang, Shandong, etc. were actively traded, but the overall trading volume in the market decreased. The trading maturity was still lower than the average level in December, but the margin has rebounded. In terms of trading returns, the average returns of local government bonds in each region were mostly between 1.8% and 2.25%, while local bonds in Shandong and Liaoning had excess returns of 2.37% and 2.42% respectively [20].