固定收益 | 固定收益专题 利率专题 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 24 日 险资配债的逻辑与新趋势 险资投资情况概览：走弱的保费收入增速，走强的股债投资力度 去年下半年"炒停售"热潮褪去后，寿险产品保费收入增速明显走弱，拖 累行业整体表现。保险资金整体投资力度却呈现了逆势大幅走强。从大类 资产配置的角度看，债券和股票是险资投资的主要发力点。参考海外经验 来说，我们认为财产险公司的权益投资占比后续还有很大的继续提升空间。 险资配债需要考虑什么：在增厚收益与平滑波动中选择最优解 保险资金在中国债券市场中占比约为 9.32%。券种分布上，地方债目前在保 险持仓结构中占比已快速增长至达 47%。在二级现券市场上，超长期地方 政府债自 24 年 11 月以来，在保险净买入规模中整体占比 50%以上。 考虑因素一：增厚收益，结合税收成本与资本占用成本的综合考量 1）在税收成本方面，即使 8 月 8 日之后新代码债券的利息收入需要征收增 值税，政府债的税收收益依然明显领先于其他券种。 2）在资本占用成本方面，"偿二代"二期监管体系即将于 2026 年起全面实 施，险企尤其是中小型险企的偿付能力充足率承压。展望后续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the resumption of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, marks a significant shift in the bond market tax policy, aiming to unify tax rates across different bond types and strengthen fiscal revenue [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Significance - The previous exemption of interest income from government bonds from business tax and later from value-added tax has significantly boosted the attractiveness of bond investments, contributing to the rapid growth of China's bond market, which is now the second largest globally [2]. - The reform is expected to consolidate the pricing benchmark of government bond yield curves and alleviate fiscal pressure, with a gradual implementation strategy to stabilize expectations for existing bondholders [2]. Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Market Impact - In the short term, the tax reform will create a price effect and impact bond spreads, favoring existing tax-exempt government and local bonds while enhancing the attractiveness of credit bonds and interbank certificates of deposit [3]. - In the long term, the impact on bond yields is expected to be limited, as the valuation of bonds will gradually incorporate new issues, with market movements still driven by economic fundamentals, policy, and liquidity [3]. Group 3: Impact on Institutional Investors - The tax reform will have a more pronounced effect on institutional investors, with banks and brokerages facing a 6% tax rate, while public funds, bank wealth management, and insurance asset management products will benefit from a lower 3% tax rate, potentially attracting more funds into these products [4]. - The increased tax burden on proprietary trading departments may lead them to increase outsourcing to enhance returns, while public funds may see a boost in their growth opportunities due to their tax advantages [5]. Group 4: Impact on Individual Investors - For individual investors directly investing in bonds, the tax reform's impact is expected to be minimal, as existing bonds issued before August 8, 2025, remain unaffected, potentially leading to price appreciation and capital gains [6]. - New bonds issued after the reform may offer higher coupon rates to compensate for the tax, ensuring that post-tax yields do not diminish significantly, thus protecting investor interests [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, bond yields may fluctuate downward. Although government bond issuance brings certain net - increase pressure, the certainty of the downward trend of capital prices is relatively high due to the marginal decline of the central bank's open - market maturity scale and the gradual subsidence of tax - period disturbances. In the long term, the bond yield is still in a downward trend under the background of weak fundamentals [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Performance Last Week - Bond yields generally increased, the term spread widened, and the curve became steeper. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 6BP to 1.7465%, the short - term interest rate rose slightly, and the term spread increased by 4BP. Bank - to - bank pledged repo rates and financial institution pledged repo rates both increased. The liquidity of the banking system remained reasonably abundant, and the R007 - DR007 spread narrowed, but the stratification between non - bank institutions and banks still existed [3]. Factors Driving Bond Yield Increases - The increase in market risk preference, tax - period disturbances, and the substantial increase in government bond supply jointly pushed up bond yields. The stock - bond seesaw effect, with the steady rise of the equity index, suppressed the bond market. The tax - period on the 15th led to a convergence of the money market and a significant increase in capital prices. The net increase in government bond issuance also contributed to the rise in bond yields [4]. Policy - related Influences - Policies on preventing capital idling and fiscal discount loans indicate that the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts may slow down. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report emphasizes preventing capital idling, suggesting a possible delay in the pace of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The fiscal discount policy for personal consumption and business loans strengthens the signal of a slowdown in the pace of comprehensive interest rate cuts [5]. Fundamental Situation - Economic data generally declined, and loans in the real - sector weakened, reflecting the weak economic operation. In July, economic and financial data showed that the contradiction of "weak demand + resilient supply + low prices" continued. Industrial added - value growth slightly decreased, overall investment growth was dragged down by real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing, consumption momentum slightly slowed down, and financing in the resident and enterprise sectors was weak [6][7]. Capital - related Situation - This week, liquidity continued to be relatively loose. The maturity scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase decreased significantly, which will relieve capital pressure. The tax - period disturbances are gradually subsiding, and capital prices may decline [7]. Supply - side Situation - This week, local government bond issuance increased, and government bond issuance maintained a net - increase trend. It is expected that the central bank will adjust capital injection to maintain liquidity. The net increase in local government bond issuance this week was 2366 billion yuan compared with last week, and the net increase in Treasury bond issuance also increased by about 1000 billion yuan compared with last week. The scale of government bond payments decreased marginally compared with last week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market [2][4][12][83][85] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic downward pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Price is the key variable for economic recovery. The price recovery at the supply level is starting to show at the meso - level, but the economic fundamentals in July were poor, and the improvement of CPI and PPI was less than expected. Consumption and exports may face pressure in the second half of the year [2][10][11][83] - The recent correction in the bond market is due to the systematic and active reduction of duration by bond funds and securities firms' proprietary trading, which has nothing to do with redemptions and economic fundamentals. When many institutions reduce their bond investment duration, a new market may start [2][11][83] - In 2025, the bond market lacks a trending market and requires correct band - trading. It is predicted that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. After the recent correction, the 10Y Treasury bond is close to 1.75%, with high cost - effectiveness [4][12][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than from January to June. From January to July, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points lower than in the first half of the year. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, 1.1 percentage points lower than in June [13] - Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", with a subsidy ratio of 1 percentage point, starting from September 1, 2025, for a period of 1 year [4][16] - On August 15, the central bank released the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter of 2025", continuing the moderately loose tone, and the probability of recent reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is low. The monetary policy focuses on implementation, emphasizing "interest rate guidance", "preventing idle funds", "improving the efficiency of fund use", and "making good use of various structural monetary policy tools" [4][16] - The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3% [18] 2. Meso - level High - frequency Data 2.1 Consumption - As of August 10, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 45,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the average daily wholesale volume was 40,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. As of August 15, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 144,668,300 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 46.1% [22] - As of August 1, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.739 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%, and the total retail sales were 4.05 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [27] 2.2 Transportation - As of August 10, the container throughput of ports was 6.792 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%. As of August 15, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 4.0767 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [28] - As of August 10, the postal express pick - up volume was 3.53 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 13.4%. The railway freight volume was 78.697 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 5.33 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [35][37] 2.3 Industrial Operating Rates - As of August 13, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises in the country was 77.5%, a year - on - year increase of 3.6 percentage points. As of August 14, the average asphalt operating rate was 27.0%, a year - on - year increase of 5.0 percentage points [43] - As of August 14, the soda ash operating rate was 87.1%, a year - on - year increase of 5.3 percentage points, and the PVC operating rate was 76.7%, a year - on - year increase of 1.9 percentage points. As of August 15, the average PX operating rate was 85.0%, and the average PTA operating rate was 78.9% [46] 2.4 Real Estate - As of August 15, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.209 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. The total number of commercial housing transactions was 12,667 units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.6% [48][50] 2.5 Prices - As of August 15, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 25.7%, and a 2.2% decrease compared to four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of vegetables was 4.7 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%, and a 7.4% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of six key fruits was 7.0 yuan per kilogram, a year - on - year decrease of 6.3%, and a 4.5% decrease compared to four weeks ago [51] - As of August 15, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 689.0 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%, and a 9.9% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 63.5 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 18.6%, and a 5.4% decrease compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar was 3321.2 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, and a 4.5% increase compared to four weeks ago [52] - As of August 15, the average spot price of iron ore was 792.9 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and a 2.7% increase compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of glass was 14.6 yuan per square meter, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5%, and a 2.2% increase compared to four weeks ago [58] 3. Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On August 15, overnight Shibor was 1.40%, up 8.30 BP from August 11. R001 was 1.44%, up 9.33 BP; R007 was 1.49%, up 3.21 BP. DR001 was 1.40%, up 8.75 BP; DR007 was 1.48%, up 3.94 BP. IBO001 was 1.44%, up 9.11 BP; IBO007 was 1.52%, up 5.32 BP [60] - Most Treasury bond yields rose. On August 15, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.37%, 1.59%, 1.75%, and 2.05% respectively, up 1.3 BP, 4.9 BP, 5.8 BP, and 9.0 BP respectively from August 8 [66] - On August 15, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.53%, 1.74%, 1.86%, and 2.15% respectively, up 3.2 BP, 7.5 BP, 7.9 BP, and 9.8 BP respectively from August 8 [66] - On August 15, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.38%, 1.69%, and 1.84% respectively, down 0.7 BP, up 3.4 BP, and up 2.0 BP respectively from August 8 [71] - On August 15, the yields of AAA - rated 1 - month and 1 - year and AA + - rated 1 - month and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.47%, 1.64%, 1.49%, and 1.67% respectively, up 1.1 BP, 2.0 BP, 1.1 BP, and 1.0 BP respectively from August 8 [71] - As of August 15, 2025, the yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds in the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.3%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, up 6 BP, 7 BP, 11 BP, and 9 BP respectively from August 8 [75] - On August 15, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.14 and 7.18 respectively, down 11 and 3 pips respectively from August 8 [76] 4. Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, and has been continuously decreasing in the past three weeks. As of August 15, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 5.2 years, a decrease of about 0.04 years compared to last week (August 8) [79] - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. In the past three weeks, the duration has risen rapidly and then fluctuated. As of August 15, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 2.8 years, and the estimated average duration was about 2.7 years, an increase of about 0.14 years compared to last week (August 8) [81] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report is firmly bullish on the bond market. It is predicted that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year. After the recent correction, the 10Y Treasury bond is close to 1.75%, with high cost - effectiveness. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond may gradually return to around 1.65%, and the yield of 5Y national - share second - tier bonds may fall below 1.9% [4][12][85] - Be bullish on long - duration sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. Strongly recommend perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks. Pay attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [4][12][85]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of August 8, the duration strategy was neutral, with medium - long - term duration portfolios performing slightly better than dumbbell - shaped ones. Long - term allocation sentiment was low, as the excess returns of ultra - long - term strategies were generally negative, and the willingness to extend duration was not strong [2][12]. - The trading duration of mainstream varieties was marginally shortened. As of August 10, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased, and some financial bonds were at low historical levels [3][16]. - As of August 11, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds and real - estate bonds were generally higher than other varieties. Most non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bond yields declined compared to the previous week, and more than half of financial bond yields decreased [4][20]. - The number of ultra - long - term credit bond transactions significantly declined. From August 4 - 8, 2025, the combined number of transactions of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds with a term of 7 years and above dropped from 515 to 389. The yields of some bonds were changing, with the yield spread between the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds narrowing [5][24]. - The increase of local government bond indices was less than that of treasury bonds of the same term. Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local government bond indices rose 0.09% and 0.01% respectively, underperforming treasury bonds of the same term but outperforming ultra - long - term credit bonds [6][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Quantified Credit Strategy - As of August 8, the duration strategy was neutral. Medium - long - term duration portfolios had better performance, with return deviations from the benchmark within 4bp. The short - end sinking strategy of urban investment bonds had a negative deviation of over 5bp, and the excess returns of urban investment duration and dumbbell - shaped strategies were only 1.2bp and 0.2bp respectively. Ultra - long - term strategies had negative excess returns, especially for industrial and secondary ultra - long - term combinations, with readings below - 10bp [2][12]. 3.2 Variety Duration Tracking - As of August 10, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.00 years and 2.60 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.20 years, 3.48 years, and 3.13 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.54 years, 2.17 years, 2.71 years, and 1.37 years respectively, with some at low historical quantiles and leasing company bonds at a high historical quantile [3][16]. 3.3 Coupon Asset Heat Map - As of August 11, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds and real - estate bonds had higher valuation yields and spreads. Non - financial and non - real - estate industrial bond yields mostly declined compared to the previous week. Among financial bonds, leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital replenishment tools, and securities sub - bonds had higher valuation yields and spreads. More than half of financial bond yields decreased. The interest rates of general commercial financial bonds fluctuated within a narrow range (no more than 1.5BP), and the yields of some 1 - year - within urban and rural commercial bank perpetual bonds decreased significantly, with the yield of 1 - year - within urban commercial bank perpetual bonds dropping by more than 5BP [4][20]. 3.4 Ultra - long - term Credit Bond Micro - tracking - Since July, the lack of floating profits in ultra - long - term credit bonds and the difficulty in controlling drawdowns led to a significant decrease in trading demand. From August 4 - 8, 2025, the combined number of transactions of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds with a term of 7 years and above decreased from 515 to 389. The average trading yield of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds was marginally repaired, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds narrowed to 22bp, but the yields of over - 10 - year general credit bonds were still rising [5][24]. 3.5 Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking - Last week, the 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local government bond indices rose 0.09% and 0.01% respectively, less than the increase of treasury bonds of the same term but better than the overall decline of ultra - long - term credit bonds [6][27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit local government debts through concentrated issuance of refinancing special bonds, which squeezed the issuance window for special bonds to some extent [2][45] - New special bonds will take over from refinancing special bonds, with an expected issuance scale of nearly 2 trillion yuan in the third quarter. Their investment directions show many highlights, such as diversification, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][46] - The issuance of local bonds shows significant regional differentiation. Five key debt - resolution provinces have higher issuance costs, while some economically developed provinces have lower issuance spreads. "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas are the main issuers, and key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds [3][46] - The expansion of local bond scale intensifies the repayment pressure in some regions, and the flexibility and autonomy of special bond issuance and use increase the management difficulty. Future management should strengthen the whole - life cycle management of special bond projects and leverage the role of special bond funds [4][47] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Local Bond Issuance in the First Half of 2025 - Overall, local government bonds issued about 5.49 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 57.18% increase year - on - year, reaching a record high. Net financing was about 4.41 trillion yuan, a 135.69% increase year - on - year [6] - In terms of bond types, refinancing special bonds and new special bonds were the main types. Refinancing special bonds issued 2.15 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.16% of the total. New special bonds issued 2.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.35% of the total, with a slow overall issuance progress in the first half of the year and an expected peak in the third quarter [7] - New special bonds are mainly invested in traditional infrastructure, but also show many highlights, including diversified investment, covering payment arrears, and investing in government investment funds for the first time [2][11] - Special refinancing bonds issued 1.80 trillion yuan, completing 90% of the annual quota, with issuance expected to slow down in the second half of the year. Special new special bonds issued 4647.80 billion yuan, accounting for 8.47% of the total, with large issuance potential [2][15] 2. Regional Differentiation in Local Bond Issuance - In terms of overall issuance, Jiangsu Province issued the most local bonds, 5500.6 billion yuan, mainly refinancing special bonds. Shandong, Guangdong, and Sichuan issued over 300 billion yuan [25] - In terms of issuance spreads, five key debt - resolution provinces have spreads mostly above 20BP, while some economically developed provinces have spreads compressed to within 10BP [3][27] - "Self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas (excluding Hebei Xiongan New Area) issued 2.95 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 53.73% of the total. They are expected to speed up the issuance of new special bonds in the future [31] - Twelve key provinces issued 2.15 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly refinancing special bonds. Many provinces are accelerating their exit from the list of high - risk debt areas, and those that exit are expected to increase the quota of new special bonds [34][37] 3. Problems and Prospects of Local Bonds - Problems include the increased repayment pressure in some regions due to the large - scale growth of local bonds and weakening fiscal revenue, and the increased management difficulty of special bonds due to enhanced flexibility and autonomy [38] - In terms of repayment pressure, the balance of local government debts has risen rapidly, and although the average term has been extended and the average interest rate has decreased, the weak fiscal revenue may intensify the interest - payment pressure [38][39] - In terms of special bond management, there are problems such as illegal investment, false reporting, misappropriation, and idle funds. Future management should focus on strengthening investment area management, full - process management, and expanding the proportion of special bonds used as project capital [43][44] 4. Summary - In the first half of 2025, local government bond issuance was fast - paced, with a focus on resolving implicit debts. New special bonds will take over, and special new special bonds have large issuance potential [45][46] - Regional differentiation is significant, and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas will play an important role. Key provinces mainly issue refinancing special bonds, and provinces exiting high - risk debt areas may increase new special bond quotas [46] - The expansion of local bond scale and weak fiscal revenue increase repayment pressure, and special bond management needs to be strengthened. In the future, new special bonds will be issued and used more quickly, and investment areas may be further expanded [47]

监测周报 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 27 期】政治局会议地方债务领域三大关 注点 2025-07-30 2025 年 7 月 28 日—2025 年 8 月 4 日 总第 352 期 2025 年第 28 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 26 期】国家发改委推动低空经济安全健 康发展，吉林强调防止企业账款"边清边 欠"2025-07-24 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 25 期】中央城市工作会议强调存量提质 增效，吉林重启中小银行专项债发行 2025- 07-17 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 24 期】加强专项债对大功率充电设施建 设支持力度，地方债发行降温、城投债提 前兑付增多 2025-07-10 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 23 期】中央决算 ...

Quantitative Credit Strategy - As of August 1, the secondary capital bond heavy strategy has rapidly recovered, with the weekly average yield of the credit style secondary bond heavy portfolio rising nearly 87 basis points, reaching the highest absolute return since April [2][12] - The secondary bond heavy and long-term industrial strategies showed significant recovery compared to other portfolios, with weekly returns of 0.31% and 0.51%, respectively, compensating for over 65% of the losses from the previous week [2][12] - Financial bond duration strategies generally outperformed, with secondary bonds, perpetual bonds, and brokerage bond duration portfolios beating the mid-to-long-term benchmark by approximately 9.2 basis points, 8.7 basis points, and 10.4 basis points, respectively [2][12] Duration Tracking of Varieties - The transaction duration of secondary capital bonds has risen to 4.8 years as of August 3, with urban investment bonds and industrial bonds weighted at 2.24 years and 3.03 years, respectively, both at over 90% historical percentile levels since March 2021 [3][14] - Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 4.79 years, 4.02 years, and 2.91 years, respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level [3][14] - For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, subordinated securities bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.78 years, 2.37 years, 3.00 years, and 1.61 years, respectively, with securities company bonds and subordinated securities bonds at low historical percentiles [3][14] Yield Heat Map of Coupon Assets - As of August 4, the yields of non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds have generally declined, with yields for 1-year and 2-3 year private enterprise public non-perpetual bonds down by 5.8 basis points and 6.7 basis points, respectively [4][19] - Real estate bonds also saw a decline in yields, with the yield drop for 3-year private enterprise public non-perpetual bonds exceeding 6 basis points [4][19] - In the financial bond sector, bank subordinated bonds are favored, particularly in the short end, with yields for 1-year shares and 1-2 year city commercial bank secondary capital bonds down by 11.5 basis points and 8.8 basis points, respectively [4][19] Long-term Credit Bond Insights - The issuance scale of long-term credit new bonds totaled 13.42 billion, with supply returning to a low level, possibly due to rising issuance costs, as long-term bond issuers await favorable issuance windows [5][21] - Correspondingly, the average issuance rate of long-term credit new bonds continued to rise, with the issuance rate of long-term urban investment bonds reaching over the 50th percentile for the first time in 24 years [5][21] Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking - The average issuance rate of local bonds has marginally increased, with the yield spreads for 30-year, 20-year, and 10-year local bonds widening to 14 basis points, 12 basis points, and 11 basis points, respectively, compared to the same-term government bonds [6][22]

新发国债等债券利息收入恢复征收增值税 将对险资大类资产配置影响几何？ 本报记者 冷翠华 8月8日起，新发行的国债等债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。保险机构的债券配置规模大、占比高， 这一调整将对其带来何种影响？ 同时，多家研究机构就上述新政策对险企经营的影响进行了测算。例如，华源证券发布研报称，定量静 态测算结果显示，新发国债、地方政府债和金融债恢复征收增值税，短期内对保险公司净利润的影响程 度在1%左右，同时，保险公司可通过将资产配置转向高股息资产、购买老债等方式进行对冲。随着时 间的推移，保险公司配置新发债券规模增加，影响程度会略有上升，但整体不会太大。 整体影响较小 根据财政部和税务总局8月1日发布的《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》，对8月8日之后 (含当日)新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。对在8月8日之前已发 行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券(包含在2025年8月8日之后续发行的部分)的利息收入，继续免征增 值税直至债券到期。 国金证券也在近日发布的研报中表示，按照五大上市险企2024年归母净利润数据测算，预计新政策的影 响幅度在0.26%到1.77%之间，整 ...

华源证券研报称，新发国债、地方政府债和金融债恢复征收增值税，短期内对保险公司净利润的影响程 度在1%左右，同时，保险公司可通过将资产配置转向高股息资产、购买老债等方式进行对冲 8月8日起，新发行的国债等债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。保险机构的债券配置规模大、占比高， 这一调整将对其带来何种影响？ 业内人士认为，整体来看，对新发国债等债券的利息收入恢复征收增值税，对险企净利润的静态影响较 小，但对险企在不同债券品种间的配置会产生一定影响。同时，险企还可能增配权益类资产，在一定程 度上替代债券。整体上看，增值税政策的调整并不会影响债券作为险资配置"压舱石"的地位，债券仍将 是险资配置的"基本盘"，而权益资产配置则可能呈边际提升态势。 国金证券也在近日发布的研报中表示，按照五大上市险企2024年归母净利润数据测算，预计新政策的影 响幅度在0.26%到1.77%之间，整体影响较小。 难改债券"压舱石"地位 那么，上述新政策对险资机构未来的大类资产配置将产生怎样的影响？受访人士普遍认为，实际利息收 益的小幅下降不会改变债券作为险资配置"压舱石"的地位，但从边际变化来看，在市场利率下行背景 下，部分保险机构将选择增配权 ...