监测周报 2025 年 9 月 22 日—2025 年 9 月 28 日 总第 359 期 2025 年第 36 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 5000 亿政策性金融工具落地， 有望拉动 2-5 万亿基建投资 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 35 期】河南专项债及专项贷款协力"清 欠"，第二批置换仅剩 2 省未发行完 2025- 09-28 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 34 期】超六成融资平台实现退出，甘肃 出台全国首个省级 PPP 存量项目方案 2025- 09-18 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 33 期】专项债会计处理新规强化资金监 管,山东力争 10 月底前完成专项债发行， 2025-09-11 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 36 期 本期要点 ◼ 要闻点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 32 期】宁夏、江西加快推进"退 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating mentioned in the report. 2. Report's Core View The current bond market has prominent allocation value. The monetary policy has added the statement of "continuous efforts and timely intensification", emphasizing counter - cyclical adjustment, maintaining ample liquidity and reducing social financing costs. The economic data in July and August were lower than expected. From January to August 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from decline to an increase of 0.9% year - on - year, with the single - month profit growth rate in August soaring to 20.4%. The consumer side showed differentiation this week, indicating cautious consumer sentiment. Against the backdrop of economic pressure, there are still expectations of monetary policy easing. The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Bond yields may fluctuate downward, and the 10Y Treasury yield may drop to 1.65% in the fourth quarter [2][10][80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - **Central Bank's Monetary Policy Meeting**: The third - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee in 2025 added "continuous efforts and timely intensification" to the overall description of monetary policy. It removed "more risk hidden dangers" in the domestic economic description and "continuous" from the description of prices. The new statement "implement and refine the moderately loose monetary policy" was added, and "deepening the structural reform of the financial supply - side" was removed [12]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: From January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a year - on - year decline of 1.7% to an increase of 0.9%. In August, the single - month profit growth rate rebounded significantly to 20.4%, driven by policy effects, low - base support, and industry structure optimization. However, nearly half of the industries still had negative year - on - year profit growth [18][19]. - **US Tariff and PCE Data**: The US will impose a new round of high - tariffs on multiple imported products starting from October 1. The US PCE price index in August increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, both in line with expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25BP in October rose above 80% [4][22]. 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data - **Consumption**: As of September 21, the daily average retail and wholesale volumes of passenger cars increased by 9.4% and 5.8% year - on - year respectively. As of September 19, the total retail volume of three major household appliances increased by 10.2% year - on - year, while the total retail sales decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [24][28]. - **Transportation**: As of September 21, the weekly container throughput at ports increased by 12.9% year - on - year, postal express pick - up volume increased by 19.4% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic increased by 20.7% year - on - year. As of September 27, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities decreased by 8.5% year - on - year [34][39][41]. - **Industrial Operating Rates**: As of September 24, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 3.2 percentage points year - on - year. As of September 25, the average asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate increased by 7.5 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points year - on - year [44][46]. - **Real Estate**: As of September 27, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 3.6% year - on - year. As of September 19, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities increased by 78.4% year - on - year [51][53]. - **Prices**: As of September 26, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 25.0% year - on - year and 2.2% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 21.2% year - on - year and increased by 2.6% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 7.5% year - on - year and 1.9% compared with 4 weeks ago, while the average spot price of iron ore increased by 8.4% year - on - year and 2.4% compared with 4 weeks ago [54][60]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - **Short - term Interest Rates**: On September 28, the overnight Shibor was 1.31%, down 9.90BP from September 23. On September 26, R001, DR001, and IBO001 decreased, while R007, DR007, and IBO007 increased compared with September 22 [63]. - **Bond Yields**: On September 26, most Treasury yields rose. The 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year Treasury yields were 1.39%/1.62%/1.88%/2.22% respectively, with changes of flat/+0.5BP/+0.3BP/+1.8BP compared with September 19. The yields of China Development Bank bonds and local government bonds also showed different changes [68][70]. - **Foreign Exchange**: On September 26, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.12/7.13, up 24/220 pips compared with September 19 [76]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior The median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds estimated on September 26 was about 4.5 years, down about 0.04 years from last week. The median and average durations of medium - and long - term credit bond funds estimated on September 26 were about 2.9 years, down about 0.2 years from last week [76][79]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations The current bond market has prominent allocation value. The bond market's performance in September deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Bond yields may fluctuate downward. Although the bond market may be disturbed by the stock market's risk appetite in the short term, its allocation value is prominent supported by the fundamentals. The 10Y Treasury yield may drop to 1.65% in the fourth quarter [80][83].

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 整体来看，权益市场在国庆假期前后通常有较强的日历效应，节前以谨慎 离场为主，节后通常补涨。 债市资金面节前通常波动较大、节后季节性明显回落；但国债利率本身日 历效应并不明显。复盘 2019 年以来表现来看，国庆前后利率多以上行为 主，主要关注因素在于基本面和财政政策。可分类为三种情况： 1）2019、2020、2021 年，节后利率延续节前的上行态势，行情主线分别 是中美贸易谈判推进、基本面数据表现偏强、通胀担忧升温。 2）2022、2024 年，利率由节前的上行态势扭转为节后下行态势。前者主 因节前地产积极政策出台、宽信用预期升温，而节后坚决防疫政策信号加 强；后者主因节后股市涨幅放缓，债市迎来大跌之后的修复。 3）2023 年，国庆前后债市延续震荡略偏空的格局。主要逻辑在于资金面 偏紧，叠加特殊再融资债开始发行。 固收周度点评 证券研究报告 长假前后，债市表现如何？ 1、本周债市行情回顾：做空惯性中，期待维稳力量入场 本周，债市"远忧近虑"并存，做空惯性仍在，但大行买债和央行操作也 及时起到维稳效果，利率在连续"上台阶"之后有所修复。但综合来看， 做空惯性仍有待更积极、更确定的 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the end of 2024, China's government debt scale was 92.6 trillion yuan, with local government implicit debt reduced to 10.5 trillion yuan, and the overall risk was controllable. The State Council and relevant departments continuously optimized and improved government debt management to better发挥 the function of government debt. However, there were still some difficulties and problems in government debt management and risk prevention and resolution, such as the need to strengthen government debt management, the occurrence of illegal new implicit debt and false debt resolution, and the need to optimize the government debt scale and structure. To address the problems and challenges in China's fiscal and debt fields, it was necessary to change ideas, moderately increase policy intensity, and promote medium - and long - term structural reforms [6][7][8]. - Henan actively supported the clearance of government - owed enterprise accounts through the coordinated efforts of "special bonds + special loans." Zhengzhou adjusted special bond funds to repay debts, and Xuchang completed the issuance of special working capital loans [6][10]. - This week, 25 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest, and 2 urban investment bonds cancelled issuance [6][13][14]. - This week, the issuance and net financing scale of local government bonds decreased, and Shenzhen and Hainan issued offshore RMB local bonds in Macau and Hong Kong respectively. Only Henan and Hubei had not completed the issuance of the 2 - trillion - yuan replacement quota. The issuance and net financing scale of urban investment bonds increased, with rising issuance interest rates and widening spreads [6][15][20]. - This week, there was no adjustment to the urban investment credit rating and no occurrence of urban investment credit risk events. The spot trading scale of local government bonds and urban investment bonds increased, and the yield to maturity of urban investment bonds increased across the board. There were 15 abnormal transactions of 11 urban investment bonds [23][25]. - This week, 51 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers, and equity/asset transfers [29]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. News Review (1) The 2024 Government Debt Management Report was released, with implicit debt reduced to 10.5 trillion yuan - As of the end of 2024, China's government debt balance was 92.6 trillion yuan, including 34.6 trillion yuan in national debt, 47.5 trillion yuan in local government legal debt, and 10.5 trillion yuan in local government implicit debt, a decrease of 3.8 trillion yuan from the end of 2023. The national government legal debt - to - GDP ratio was 60.9%, and after adding the 10.5 - trillion - yuan local government implicit debt balance, the national government debt - to - GDP ratio was 68.7% [7]. - The State Council and relevant departments optimized and improved government debt management in aspects such as system mechanism construction, prevention and resolution of local government implicit debt risks, and improvement of the local government debt monitoring and supervision system [8]. - There were problems in government debt management, including the need to improve the management of ultra - long - term special national debt, the occurrence of illegal new implicit debt and false debt resolution, and the need to optimize the government debt scale and structure [8]. (2) Henan supported "debt clearance" through "special bonds + special loans," and Zhengzhou adjusted special bond funds to repay debts and Xuchang completed the issuance of special working capital loans - Zhengzhou promoted the clearance of debts owed to enterprises, carried out a new round of debt investigations, and adjusted special bond funds to repay debts. Xuchang's Xiangcheng Sub - branch of the Agricultural Bank of China approved a 10 - million - yuan working capital loan for a debt - owing entity and completed the first issuance of 5 million yuan [10]. (3) 25 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest this week - 25 urban investment enterprises prepaid the principal and interest of 28 bonds, with a total scale of 4.799 billion yuan. The prepaid urban investment enterprises were mainly from the central region, and the main credit rating was AA [13]. (4) 2 urban investment bonds cancelled issuance this week - "25 Tongzhouwan PPN003" and "25 Xianggaosu CP003" cancelled issuance, with a planned total issuance scale of 1.33 billion yuan. As of September 12, 81 urban investment bonds had postponed or cancelled issuance this year, with a total scale of 51.594 billion yuan [14]. 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds (1) Local government bonds - This week, 65 local bonds were issued, with a issuance scale of 194.519 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.52% from the previous value, and a net financing amount of 36.855 billion yuan, a decrease of 80.88%. As of September 19, 2025, the scale of local bonds in the存续 period was 53.3 trillion yuan. The issuance of new bonds this year had reached 4.176385 trillion yuan, accounting for 80.32% of the annual new quota, and the issuance of new special bonds was 3.517665 trillion yuan, accounting for 79.95% of the annual new quota. The issuance of refinancing bonds was 4.096984 trillion yuan, of which 1.974915 trillion yuan was used to replace existing implicit debt, completing 98.75% of the 2 - trillion - yuan quota for the year, and only 2.5085 billion yuan remained to be issued; 953.2 million yuan was used to repay existing government debt [15]. - The issuance term of local bonds was mainly 10 - year, and the weighted average issuance term was 15.55 years, 2.30 years shorter than the previous value. Ten provinces issued local bonds this week, with Henan having the largest issuance scale of 38.315 billion yuan. Shenzhen, Guangdong, and Hainan issued a total of 6 billion yuan of offshore RMB local bonds in Macau and Hong Kong. The weighted average issuance interest rate of local bonds increased by 2.24BP to 2.18%, and the weighted average issuance spread widened by 2.24BP to 21.71BP [15][16]. (2) Urban investment bonds - This week, 209 urban investment bonds were issued, with a issuance scale of 145.455 billion yuan, an increase of 52.95% from the previous value, and a net financing amount of 33.243 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1681 billion yuan. As of September 19, the scale of urban investment bonds in the存续 period was 14.26 trillion yuan. The overall issuance interest rate of urban investment bonds was 2.41%, an increase of 2.50BP from the previous value, and the issuance spread was 87.48BP, a widening of 7.00BP. The issuance was mainly in the form of general medium - term notes, with a 5 - year term as the main term. The issuer's main credit rating was AA +. This week, 10 urban investment overseas bonds were issued, with a total scale of 4.66 billion yuan [20]. 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - This week, the central bank conducted 1.8268 - trillion - yuan reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1.2645 - trillion - yuan reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 562.3 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates mostly increased. There was no adjustment to the urban investment credit rating and no occurrence of urban investment credit risk events [23]. - The spot trading scale of local government bonds was 493.12 billion yuan, an increase of 13.41% from the previous value, and the yield to maturity fluctuated, with an average increase of 1.20BP. The trading scale of urban investment bonds was 317.943 billion yuan, an increase of 25.47% from the previous value, and the yield to maturity increased across the board, with an average increase of 2.69BP. In terms of credit spreads, the spreads of 1 - year and 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds widened, while the spread of 3 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed. There were 15 abnormal transactions of 11 urban investment bonds of 11 urban investment entities [25]. 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - This week, 51 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., as well as changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers, and equity/asset transfers [29].

一、一级供给节奏 上周（2025.9.15-2025.9.19，下同）地方政府债共发行 1885.2 亿元，其中，新增专项债 978.2 亿元，再融资专项债 460.9 亿元。分募集资金用途来看，"特殊新增专项债"、"普通/项目收益"是专项债资金的主要投放领域。截至 2025 年 9 月 19 日，9 月份特殊再融资专项债发行已有 528 亿元，特殊再融资债占当月地方债发行规模的比例达到 6.7%。 发行定价方面，30 年地方债发行利率升至年内高点。从利差角度看，30 年、10 年地方债发行利率与同期限国债利差 持续走阔至 20.8BP、23.1BP，10 年品种近两周上行速度较快，20 年地方债发行利差则小幅收窄至 20.6BP。 分地区来看，9 月贵州、广东、河南等地是地方债发行的主要区域，其中，广东、湖南 20 年以上地方债发行规模分别 达到 596.1 亿元、302.5 亿元，此外，平均票面利率高于 2.3%的发行区域增多，湖南省地方政府债甚至升至 2.4%以 上。 二、二级交易特征 10 年以上地方政府债较同期限国债、信用债更抗跌。上周 7-10 年、10 年以上地方债指数分别下跌 0.07%、0. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In August 2025, the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased slightly month - on - month and was lower than the same period in previous years. The total bond custody scale of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House increased. Different institutions had different investment preferences for various bonds, with commercial banks increasing their allocation of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds, and broad - based funds increasing their holdings of local government bonds [1][2][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bank - Inter Leverage Ratio In late August, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 106.88%, up 0.07 pct from the end of the previous month, and generally lower than the leverage ratio in the same period of previous years [1]. 3.2 Custody Data Overview In August 2025, the total bond custody scale of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 174.54 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.506 trillion yuan. Among them, CCDC's custody scale increased by 1.5382 trillion yuan, and Shanghai Clearing House's decreased by 32.2 billion yuan. Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, and medium - term notes contributed to the increase, while enterprise bonds, short - term financing bills, ultra - short - term financing bills, directional instruments, and inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed to the decrease [2][12]. 3.3 By Bond Type - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In August 2025, the total custody scale of major interest - rate bonds was 116.60 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.7871 trillion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 1.2979 trillion yuan. Broad - based funds, insurance institutions, etc. also increased their holdings, while overseas institutions reduced their holdings [3][49]. - **Credit Bonds**: The total custody scale of major credit bonds was 16.06 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 23 billion yuan. Commercial banks were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 54.4 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and securities companies were the main sellers, reducing their holdings by 18.1 billion yuan and 14.8 billion yuan respectively. Insurance institutions and overseas institutions also reduced their holdings [3][49]. - **Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit**: The custody scale was 20.38 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 355.6 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and commercial banks were the main sellers [3][49]. 3.4 By Institution - **Commercial Banks**: The custody scale of major bonds was 85.29 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.153 trillion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 1.2979 trillion yuan and 54.4 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 199.3 billion yuan [4][50]. - **Broad - based Funds**: The custody scale of major bonds was 37.38 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 172.3 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 120.7 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 18.1 billion yuan and 274.9 billion yuan respectively [4][50]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 3.69 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 98.8 billion yuan. They reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 27.5 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 67.8 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Insurance Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.26 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 43.2 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 49.5 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 5.9 billion yuan and 0.4 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Securities Companies**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2.64 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 2 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 13.4 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 14.8 billion yuan and 0.6 billion yuan respectively [4][54]. - **Credit Unions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.9 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 22.1 billion yuan and 0.7 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 10.8 billion yuan [5][55].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity outlook is influenced by the upcoming quarter-end period from September 22 to September 26, with the current 7-day reverse repo balance at 18,268 billion yuan, significantly higher than the average of 6,382 billion yuan over the past four years, creating some pressure on liquidity [1][10] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced on September 19 that it would adjust the 14-day reverse repo operations to a fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, which aligns with the monetary policy framework established on June 19, 2024, indicating a proactive stance to support liquidity during the quarter-end [1][10] - The report suggests that the recent press conference by the State Council did not lead to any significant changes in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts, maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance that is expected to continue to support the bond market [2][11] Group 2 - The report forecasts that by September 28, the cumulative issuance of replacement bonds will reach 19,838 billion yuan, with progress at 99.19%, while new general bonds and special bonds are expected to reach 6,618 billion yuan and 36,613 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong issuance activity [3][39] - In the secondary market, the dynamic implied tax rates for local government bonds are above 3%, with the 10-year bonds showing a slight decline to just above 3%, suggesting that new bonds still have arbitrage opportunities and safety margins [4][16] - The report highlights that since September, there has been a persistent arbitrage opportunity between primary and secondary markets for bonds with maturities of 7 years and above, with a spread of 2-4 basis points, indicating potential investment opportunities [4][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - Consumption shows significant differentiation, with strong resilience in service and online demand, while commodity consumption remains under pressure. In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, down 0.3 pct from the previous month and has declined for three consecutive months. The year-on-year growth rate of service retail sales is faster than that of commodity retail sales. Some industry policies are optimized to offset the downward pressure. Domestic policies focus on consumption expansion and industrial upgrading. However, real estate risks are still not cleared. The average housing price in 100 cities across the country has dropped by more than 33% from the peak, and the average decline in first-tier cities has reached 29.5%. Currently, housing prices have not stopped falling. The economic structural contradictions are prominent, and further interest rate cuts, optimization of mortgage rates, and expansion of fiscal deficits may be needed to support growth. The bond market fluctuates in the short term, and the expectation of easing in the fourth quarter is rising. The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. The bond market is insensitive to economic data. In the past quarter, the bond market trend has deviated significantly from the economic fundamentals. The short-term suppression of the bond market mainly comes from the stock market. As the stock investment ratio of institutional funds such as annuities reaches a high level, the actual impact of the stock market on the bond market may gradually weaken. Looking forward, with the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the weak recovery momentum of the domestic economy, the probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter increases, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds may drop to 1.65%. Although the short-term bond market may be disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market, its allocation value is prominent under the support of fundamentals. [1][8][82] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - In August, the consumption growth rate continued to decline, with prominent performance in service consumption and online consumption. The total retail sales of consumer goods in August was 4.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, down 0.3 pct from the previous month and has declined for three consecutive months. From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, down 0.2 pct from January to July. In terms of sub-items, from January to August, the year-on-year growth rates of commodity retail sales and service retail sales were 4.8% and 5.1% respectively, down 0.1 pct from January to July [9]. - On September 16, nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption", proposing 19 measures in five aspects [16]. - The Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau issued a notice to optimize and adjust the personal housing property tax pilot policy, stating that homebuyers who hold a Shanghai residence permit for three years and work and live in Shanghai and purchase a new home in Shanghai as their family's first home are temporarily exempt from property tax [16]. - On September 18, the Fed announced a 25BP interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations. The interest rate dot plot shows that the median expectation of Fed officials is that there will be two more 25BP interest rate cuts this year, one more than the prediction in June [16]. 3.2 Meso-High Frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of September 14, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers was 6.1 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and the average daily wholesale volume was 6.7 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [15]. - As of September 18, the total national movie box office revenue in the past 7 days was 614.469 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [15]. - As of August 29, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.337 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, and the total retail sales were 3.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [20]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of September 14, the container throughput of ports in the current week was 6.652 million twenty-foot equivalent units, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [23]. - As of September 19, the average migration scale index in the past 7 days was 496.3, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% [23]. - As of September 14, the postal express pick-up volume in the current week was 3.83 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [29]. - As of September 14, the railway freight volume in the current week was 80.434 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and the highway truck traffic volume was 57.712 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6% [31]. 3.2.3 Operating Rate - As of September 17, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises in the country was 78.1%, a year-on-year increase of 2.9 pct. As of September 18, the average asphalt operating rate was 26.0%, a year-on-year increase of 3.0 pct [36]. - As of September 18, the soda ash operating rate was 85.8%, a year-on-year increase of 6.9 pct, and the PVC operating rate was 76.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 pct. As of September 19, the average PX operating rate was 86.8%, and the average PTA operating rate was 78.1% [39]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of September 19, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.731 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 51.1% [43]. - As of September 12, the second-hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 1.598 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [47]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of September 19, the average pork wholesale price was 19.7 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 26.6%, and a decrease of 2.0% compared to four weeks ago. The average vegetable wholesale price was 5.0 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 20.7%, and an increase of 3.4% compared to four weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 6.8 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, and a decrease of 1.0% compared to four weeks ago [50]. - As of September 19, the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 689.0 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%, and a decrease of 1.3% compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of WTI crude oil was 63.3 US dollars/barrel, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%, and an increase of 0.6% compared to four weeks ago [55][56]. - As of September 19, the average spot price of rebar was 3144.2 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%, and a decrease of 3.2% compared to four weeks ago. The average spot price of iron ore was 809.4 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and an increase of 3.3% compared to four weeks ago [60]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On September 19, the overnight Shibor was 1.46%, up 5.30BP from September 15. R001 was 1.50%, up 5.19BP from September 15; R007 was 1.52%, up 3.29BP from September 15. DR001 was 1.46%, up 5.04BP from September 15; DR007 was 1.51%, up 2.64BP from September 15. IBO001 was 1.50%, up 5.24BP from September 15; IBO007 was 1.54%, up 1.67BP from September 15 [63]. - Most treasury bond yields increased. On September 19, the yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year/30-year treasury bonds were 1.39%/1.62%/1.87%/2.20% respectively, down 1.0BP/up 0.5BP/up 0.8BP/up 1.7BP from September 12. The yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year/30-year China Development Bank bonds were 1.60%/1.79%/2.02%/2.29% respectively, up 2.1BP/down 2.9BP/down 0.9BP/up 2.7BP from September 12 [65]. - On September 19, the yields to maturity of 1-year/5-year/10-year local government bonds were 1.54%/1.83%/2.02% respectively, unchanged/down 1.5BP/down 0.4BP from September 12. The yields to maturity of AAA 1-month/1-year and AA+ 1-month/1-year interbank certificates of deposit were 1.58%/1.68%/1.60%/1.71% respectively, up 2.5BP/up 0.4BP/up 2.5BP/up 0.4BP from September 12 [67]. - As of September 19, 2025, the 10-year treasury bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.6%, 4.7%, and 2.8% respectively, up 8BP/4BP/4BP/4BP from September 12 [73]. - On September 19, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.11/7.11 respectively, up 109/-99 pips from September 12 [76]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds for interest rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. In the past month, it has been decreasing overall. On September 19, 2025, the estimated median duration was about 4.6 years, a decrease of about 0.2 years compared to last week (September 12) [79]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium- and long-term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a fluctuating trend. In the past month, the duration has increased rapidly and then fluctuated. On September 19, 2025, the estimated average duration was about 3.1 years, and the estimated median duration was about 3.0 years, an increase of about 0.03 years compared to last week (September 12) [81]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The bond market fluctuates in the short term, and the expectation of easing in the fourth quarter is rising. The report is bullish on the bond market in the short term. The bond market is insensitive to economic data. In the past quarter, the bond market trend has deviated significantly from the economic fundamentals. The short-term suppression of the bond market mainly comes from the stock market. As the stock investment ratio of institutional funds such as annuities reaches a high level, the actual impact of the stock market on the bond market may gradually weaken. Looking forward, with the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the weak recovery momentum of the domestic economy, the probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter increases, and the yield of 10Y treasury bonds may drop to 1.65%. Although the short-term bond market may be disturbed by the risk appetite of the stock market, its allocation value is prominent under the support of fundamentals [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the supply and trading of local government bonds, including the issuance rhythm, pricing, and secondary - market trading characteristics [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First - level Supply Rhythm - From September 8 to September 12, 2025, local government bonds worth 301.7 billion yuan were issued, including 131.9 billion yuan of new special bonds and 68 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [2][9] - As of September 12, 2025, 41.4 billion yuan of special refinancing special bonds were issued in September, accounting for 6.8% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [2][9] - The average issuance interest rate of local bonds continued to rise. The spreads between the issuance interest rates of 30 - year, 20 - year, and 10 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 19BP, 22BP, and 20BP respectively [2][16] - In September, Guangdong, Guizhou, Guangxi, Hebei, Sichuan, Hunan and other provinces were the main regions for local bond issuance. The issuance scale of 20 - 30 - year local bonds in Guangdong was close to 60 billion yuan, and the average coupon rates of local government bonds in Hunan, Guangxi, and Jilin were above 2.3% [18] 3.2 Second - level Trading Characteristics - Last week, the weekly fluctuations of 7 - 10 - year and over - 10 - year local bond indices were - 0.41% and - 0.97% respectively. The decline was smaller than that of over - 10 - year treasury bonds and almost the same as that of ultra - long - term credit bonds [3][23] - In terms of provinces, the trading activity of Guangdong government bonds increased, with the weekly trading volume increasing by 127 transactions compared with the previous period. The trading volumes of local bonds in Anhui and Jiangsu decreased significantly [3][23] - In terms of trading returns, the average trading term of Guangdong government bonds was about 27 years, with an average trading return of about 2.31%. The average trading terms of Sichuan and Jiangxi government bonds were close to 25.5 years, and the average trading returns were basically between 2.2% and 2.3% [3][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the bond market, despite the high probability of continued weakening of economic data, there is still significant adjustment pressure. If the 10Y Treasury bond rate further breaks through to 1.8%, the allocation portfolio gradually becomes cost - effective. If the central bank does not introduce incremental tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or restart bond purchases in September, the pressure on the capital side may continue to affect market sentiment. Currently, the dumbbell strategy to maintain portfolio liquidity and returns may be the best strategy [5]. - Looking at the second half of the year, since the third quarter may be the starting point of a "bond bull market", it is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration. Among the varieties, the 30 - year bond, which has shown weak performance recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [46]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Bond Market Performance Review - In the interest - rate bond market, due to the convergence of capital and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the yields of government bonds with different maturities continued to rise this week. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds rose by 2.2 and 5.2 bps to 1.79% and 2.09% respectively, and the yield of 1 - year government bonds rose by 1 bp to 1.4% [2][11]. - In the interest/credit market, for interest - rate bonds, the adjustment range of yields within 7 years was generally small, while the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds rose significantly by 4 bp and 7 bp to 1.87% and 2.18% respectively due to fund selling. For credit bonds, the short - end performed better than the long - end, and general credit bonds performed better than secondary perpetual bonds. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year bonds on the AA+ implicit urban investment bond curve rose by 2 bp, 7 bp, and 6 bp respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year bonds on the AAA - secondary capital bond curve rose by 6 bp, 10 bp, and 10 bp respectively. Currently, the yields of 5 - year credit bonds have generally returned to around 2.15% or higher [14]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - Local government bonds: This week, 93.4 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of - 3 billion yuan, including 0 billion yuan of new general bonds, 17.8 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 16.2 billion yuan of special special bonds), 75.6 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [19]. - Government bonds: This week, 349.1 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 289 billion yuan, including 82 billion yuan of special government bonds [19]. - Policy - financial bonds: This week, 120.5 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 80.5 billion yuan [19]. Funding Market Conditions - Overnight and 7 - day funding rates continued to rise at the beginning of the week. Due to the continuous absence of incremental funds, the funding cost rose continuously, and the overnight rate rose above the OMO. R001 rose 9 bp to 1.46% compared with the previous Friday, and R007 rose 3 bp to 1.49%. Until Wednesday, the central bank started incremental investment, and the rise of funding rates gradually stopped. R001 and R007 reached weekly highs of 1.46% and 1.50% respectively. In the following two days, the central bank maintained excess investment, and the funding rates began to decline gradually. R001 closed at 1.40%, and R007 also declined to 1.47% [25]. - This week, the overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45%, changing by - 5 and + 3.8 bps respectively compared with last week; the overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28%, changing by - 43.1 and - 36.2 bps respectively compared with last week [25]. - The yields of most inter - bank certificates of deposit rose. Although the maturity pressure of certificates of deposit increased this week, banks did not significantly increase the issuance price, and the secondary yields were in a sideways state. The changes in the issuance rates of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit were within 1 bp. In terms of issuance maturity, the weighted issuance maturity extended to 6.1 months, compared with 6.0 months in the previous week. Despite the convergence of the capital side, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repos still rebounded, with the average trading volume rising from 7.31 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.49 trillion yuan [28]. China's Bond Market Macroeconomic Environment Tracking and Outlook Fundamental Outlook - In August, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.4%, and the month - on - month was 0%. The core CPI year - on - year was 0.9%, and the month - on - month was 0%. Most sub - items improved. The non - food part of CPI was weaker than that in July; the food CPI month - on - month was 0.5% (previous value - 0.2%), and the non - food month - on - month was - 0.1% (previous value 0.5%) [37]. - In August, the year - on - year PPI was - 3.6% (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was 0%. However, with policy support, the subsequent decline may narrow. From the perspective of sub - items, the prices of production materials continued to decline, and the decline in emerging industries narrowed. The upstream prices stabilized significantly, with the mining and raw materials sectors turning positive month - on - month, and the processing industry returning to zero growth month - on - month. In key industries, the month - on - month of coal mining, coal processing, ferrous metal smelting, and electric power and heat all turned from negative to positive. The month - on - month of downstream automobile manufacturing was still - 0.3%, but the drag may mainly come from fuel - powered vehicles [40]. - In August, exports denominated in US dollars decreased year - on - year to 4.4%, mainly dragged down by the decline in exports to the United States. The trade surplus remained at a high level. From the perspective of export countries, in August, exports to the United States decreased year - on - year by - 33.1% (previous value - 21.7%); exports to the EU increased year - on - year by 10.4% (previous value 9.2%); exports to Japan increased year - on - year by 6.7% (previous value 2.5%); exports to ASEAN increased year - on - year by 22.5% (previous value 16.6%); exports to Latin America decreased year - on - year by - 2.3% (previous value 7.7%). From the perspective of major products, there was an obvious differentiation between high - end and low - end products. In August, the combined year - on - year of the four labor - intensive products was - 7.7%; the combined year - on - year of electronic products (mobile phones, automatic data processing equipment) was - 8.1%; the year - on - year of household appliance exports was - 6.6%, all with relatively low growth rates. The growth rate of general machinery and equipment was moderately 4.3%. The high - growth sectors were mainly in the high - end equipment field, including integrated circuits (year - on - year 32.8%), automobiles (year - on - year 17.3%), and ships (year - on - year 35%) [5][36]. - In July, the year - on - year CPI was 0, higher than the expected - 0.1%. The sub - items of commodity retail all improved to varying degrees; the year - on - year PPI was - 3.6%, remaining in a slump, indicating that there was still significant pressure for price recovery. At the same time, the credit data was to be released in the next week. Considering the decline in the cumulative transfer discount scale of large - scale banks in July and the return of the bill rate to zero at the end of the month, the social financing data in July might not be optimistic [46]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week. Under the continuous global trend of "de - dollarization", the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate, closing below 7.18 on Friday. Looking forward to the second half of the year, under the tone of a "moderately loose" monetary policy, the central bank may maintain a loose tone. This week, the central bank had a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan, including 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase investment and 1068.4 billion yuan of maturities [45]. - Due to insufficient effective economic demand, the loose monetary policy will continue. In terms of exchange rates, as the Japanese yen and the euro strengthen, the US dollar index has fallen below 100, and the pressure on RMB depreciation is still relatively controllable in the short term. Therefore, external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term. For the second half of the year, the monetary policy still needs to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and liquidity is likely to be loose rather than tight. Currently, the periodic tightness of liquidity may be mainly caused by institutional expectations. Whether dealing with external shocks or stabilizing the domestic situation, a loose tone is still an important foundation [46]. Bond Market Outlook - Looking forward to the second half of the year, since the third quarter may be the starting point of a "bond bull market", it is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration. Among the varieties, the 30 - year bond, which has shown weak performance recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [46].