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CMF年度报告:建议2026年设定跨周期区间组合的经济社会发展目标
Core Insights - The report from the China Macro Economic Forum (CMF) indicates that by 2025, China's economy is expected to strive for breakthroughs and achieve its development goals, while 2026 will present new opportunities despite ongoing challenges [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period was crucial for China's transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, maintaining economic stability amid global trade tensions and domestic pressures [2] - In 2025, China's economy is projected to grow at around 5%, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies, despite facing significant external uncertainties [2][4] - The year 2026 will mark the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to open new growth spaces and provide substantial support for reversing short-term economic downturns [3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests setting a cross-cycle target for 2026, including a real GDP growth target of 4.5%-5%, a CPI target of 1%-3%, and a nominal GDP growth target of over 5% [4] - It emphasizes the need for effective responses to the challenges posed by global economic slowdowns, trade tensions, and domestic structural transformations [3][4]