突破瓶颈需精准施策。政策层面，今年前10个月支持科技创新的税费优惠已达23725亿元，带动1—11月 高技术产业销售收入增长14.7%。朱克力建议，原始创新需建立长期投入机制，集中攻关"卡脖子"技 术；产业创新要推动数字经济与实体经济深度融合；成果转化需完善股权激励与技术转移机制。袁帅则 提出，应提高研发费用加计扣除比例、加大政府采购自主创新产品力度，强化企业主体地位。 中国城市发展研究院投资部副主任袁帅也向记者表示，要实现高水平科技创新，离不开开放协同、包容 多元的创新生态，需要促进产学研用深度融合，激发各类创新主体活力，形成创新要素自由流动、高效 配置的良好环境，推动科技创新持续、健康发展。 在全球科技竞争加剧背景下，朱克力强调，创新驱动是构建新发展格局的关键。既要通过自主创新保障 产业链安全，又要以技术升级拓展国际市场。唯有深化创新驱动，整合多元主体力量，精准布局战略赛 道，才能让新动能持续迸发，为高质量发展注入不竭动力。 中央政治局会议作出"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"的部署，与"十五五"规划建议中关于科技创 新的要求形成紧密呼应。国研新经济研究院创始院长朱克力向记者解释，关于创新驱动的部署并非 ...

细水长流行更远 ◎农银汇理投资部副总经理、基金经理 谷超 近半年来，资本市场迎来了稳步上行的结构性行情，外需贡献占比较高的相关企业股价表现突出。 从短期视角看，4月以来制造业景气度有所回落，主要是受外部环境波动与国内房地产市场调整的阶段 性影响。但从中长期维度审视，经济长期向好的核心趋势未发生改变。当前我国经济已具备庞大体量与 深厚韧性，内需正逐步成为拉动经济增长的主动力与稳定锚，在经济基本面稳步向好的支撑下，内需复 苏的长期逻辑清晰。坚定看好资本市场的长期发展潜力，尽管前期外需导向的结构性市场风格难以持 续，但"细水长流"的稳健型市场格局，更有利于投资者分享长期价值增长红利。 "十五五"规划建议提出，"高质量发展取得显著成效。经济增长保持在合理区间，全要素生产率稳步提 升，居民消费率明显提高，内需拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增强，经济增长潜力得到充分释放，全国 统一大市场建设纵深推进，超大规模市场优势持续显现，新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化取 得重大进展，发展新质生产力、构建新发展格局、建设现代化经济体系取得重大突破"。 这一部署充分凸显我国超大规模市场的独特优势与内需驱动的战略重要性，我们长期看好内 ...

Core Insights - The report from the China Macro Economic Forum (CMF) indicates that by 2025, China's economy is expected to strive for breakthroughs and achieve its development goals, while 2026 will present new opportunities despite ongoing challenges [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period was crucial for China's transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, maintaining economic stability amid global trade tensions and domestic pressures [2] - In 2025, China's economy is projected to grow at around 5%, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies, despite facing significant external uncertainties [2][4] - The year 2026 will mark the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to open new growth spaces and provide substantial support for reversing short-term economic downturns [3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests setting a cross-cycle target for 2026, including a real GDP growth target of 4.5%-5%, a CPI target of 1%-3%, and a nominal GDP growth target of over 5% [4] - It emphasizes the need for effective responses to the challenges posed by global economic slowdowns, trade tensions, and domestic structural transformations [3][4]

2025.11. 27 本文字数：982，阅读时长大约1.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛11月26日在2025年度资产管理高峰论坛上表示，"十五五"时期是战 略机遇和风险挑战并存、不可预测性增多的时期。应对发展环境的挑战，重要的一招是以改革开放为 根本动力。 "深化改革不仅仅是财政货币政策的松和紧，根本上是聚焦高质量发展的体制机制障碍，推进深层次 改革，扩大高水平开放，推动生产关系和生产力、上层建筑和经济基础、国家治理和社会发展更好相 适应，持续增强发展动力和社会活力，推进供给侧结构性改革，建设现代化经济体系，构建新发展格 局，提升宏观治理效能，推动高水平的科技自立自强，扩大高水平开放。"管涛说。 管涛认为，未来中国市场的机遇来自经济的转型升级。未来五年权益类核心资产的配置方向主要有四 类：自主可控与新潮消费、龙头企业的并购重组、传统行业的创新发展和优质企业的产业外迁。 "长期来看，经济转型孕育了资本市场发展的机会。"管涛分析，一方面，应对大国博弈更加复杂激烈 的外部环境，重要的是因地制宜发展新质生产力，加快构建新发展格局，培育壮大新兴产业、未来产 业。国内将持续用新技术新模 ...

第二，"十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标突出了战略导向。《建议》将"十五五"时期经济社会 发展主要目标与到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化、本世纪中叶全面建成社会主义现代化强国目 标贯通起来，聚焦推进中国式现代化的基础支撑和瓶颈制约，力争在打通国民经济循环堵点、破 解社会民生痛点、抢占大国博弈制高点等方面取得突破性进展，以五年阶段性目标完成支撑现代 化战略接续落实。比如，聚焦现代化建设中的短板弱项，为确保到2035年实现人均国内生产总值 达到中等发达国家水平，进入创新型国家前列，基本实现新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现 代化，基本公共服务实现均等化等目标，《建议》明确提出"十五五"时期"经济增长保持在合理区 间"、"经济增长潜力得到充分释放"、"新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化取得重大进 展"、"重点领域关键核心技术快速突破，并跑领跑领域明显增多"、"基本公共服务均等化水平明 显提升"等目标要求。这些目标要求体现了鲜明的战略导向。 第一，"十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标设置坚持了系统观念。中国式现代化涵盖经济、政 治、文化、社会、生态文明等各个领域，追求各方面协调发展、共同进步。到2035年基本实现 ...

第一，"十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标设置坚持了系统观念。中国式现代化涵盖经济、政治、 文化、社会、生态文明等各个领域，追求各方面协调发展、共同进步。到2035年基本实现社会主义现代 化目标，是由各领域分目标耦合而成的整体性目标。《建议》统筹考虑"五位一体"总体布局和安全发展 要求，与党的二十大提出的到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的8个方面目标对标对表，明确提出"十五 五"时期经济社会发展要实现"高质量发展取得显著成效"、"科技自立自强水平大幅提高"、"进一步全面 深化改革取得新突破"、"社会文明程度明显提升"、"人民生活品质不断提高"、"美丽中国建设取得新的 重大进展"、"国家安全屏障更加巩固"等7个方面的主要目标。完成好"十五五"时期的这些主要目标，将 为到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化奠定更加坚实的基础。 新华社北京11月21日电 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》紧扣 全面建成社会主义现代化强国"两步走"战略安排，锚定到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化目标，综合考 虑未来发展趋势和条件，从7个方面明确了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标。这些目标顺应时代 要求、符合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening economic system reforms to promote high-quality development, as outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposed by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China [1][2]. Group 1: Significance of Economic Reforms - Economic development driven by reform is a valuable experience formed through long-term practice, crucial for achieving rapid economic growth and long-term social stability [2]. - The integration of development and reform is essential, with reform providing strong momentum for development [2]. Group 2: Key Tasks and Major Measures - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines seven key areas for economic development, focusing on modernizing the industrial system, enhancing innovation capabilities, and promoting balanced development [5][6]. - Emphasis on building a strong domestic market and enhancing the internal circulation of the economy is highlighted as a strategic focus [7]. - The need for a high-level socialist market economy system is stressed, with a focus on the relationship between government and market roles [8]. - Expanding high-level openness and fostering international cooperation is essential for enhancing domestic economic resilience [9][10]. Group 3: Environmental and Regional Development - The plan includes measures for promoting green transformation and ecological civilization, emphasizing the importance of sustainable development [11]. - Coordinated urban and rural development is crucial for enhancing domestic circulation and achieving balanced regional growth [10][11]. Group 4: Implementation of Reforms - The article calls for a correct direction in implementing the reform measures, emphasizing the need for coordination and effective execution of the outlined tasks [12][13]. - Encouragement of innovative exploration in reform practices is necessary to address specific local challenges [13].

Group 1 - The core objective of development is to achieve high-quality growth, with significant progress made in economic growth, productivity, and consumer spending [3][4] - The domestic demand continues to play a crucial role in driving economic growth, with the potential for economic growth being fully released [3] - The construction of a unified national market is advancing, showcasing the advantages of a super-large-scale market [3] Group 2 - The level of technological self-reliance and strength has significantly improved, with a notable enhancement in the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system [4] - There has been a rapid breakthrough in key core technologies in critical areas, with an increasing number of fields where China is either catching up or leading [4] - The integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation has deepened, with a clear enhancement in the role of innovation-driven development [4] Group 3 - Cultural confidence has been strengthened, with the core socialist values widely practiced and the cultural innovation and creativity of the entire nation being continuously stimulated [5] - The quality of life for the people has improved, with synchronized growth in residents' income and economic growth, and an expanding middle-income group [5] - The social security system has been optimized for sustainability, and the level of equalization in basic public services has significantly improved [5] Group 4 - A green production and lifestyle has begun to take shape, with the carbon peak target being achieved on schedule and a new energy system being preliminarily established [6] - The total emissions of major pollutants have continued to decrease, and the stability and sustainability of ecosystem diversity have been enhanced [6] - The national security system and capabilities have been further strengthened, with effective prevention and resolution of risks in key areas [6] Group 5 - By 2035, the goal is to achieve a significant leap in economic, technological, defense, and comprehensive national strength, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries [7]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes significant achievements in high-quality development, with economic growth maintained within a reasonable range and a steady increase in total factor productivity [3] - The role of domestic demand as a driving force for economic growth has been continuously strengthened, releasing the potential for economic growth [3] - Major progress has been made in new-type industrialization, information technology, urbanization, and agricultural modernization [3] Economic Performance - Economic growth remains stable, with a notable increase in residents' consumption rates [3] - The construction of a unified national market is advancing, showcasing the advantages of a super-large-scale market [3] Technological Advancements - The level of self-reliance and strength in technology has significantly improved, with a notable enhancement in the overall effectiveness of the national innovation system [4] - Key core technologies in critical areas have rapidly broken through, with an increasing number of fields where China is either keeping pace or leading [4] Cultural and Social Development - Cultural confidence has strengthened, with the core socialist values widely practiced and the cultural innovation vitality of the entire nation continuously stimulated [5] - The quality of life for the people has improved, with synchronized growth in residents' income and economic growth [5] Environmental Sustainability - A green production and lifestyle has begun to take shape, with the carbon peak target being achieved on schedule [6] - The total emissions of major pollutants have continued to decrease, and the stability and diversity of ecosystems have been enhanced [6] Future Goals - The article outlines a vision for the next five years, aiming for significant leaps in economic, technological, and defense capabilities by 2035, with a goal for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries [7]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of a modern economic system is a strategic goal for China's development, emphasizing the need for innovation and adaptation to new productive forces to address emerging economic and social challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Modern Economic System Components - The modern economic system is an organic whole composed of various social and economic activities, integrating both productive forces and production relations [2]. - The evolution of the economic system is driven by the contradiction between productive forces and production relations, necessitating either improvement or revolutionary changes depending on technological advancements [2][3]. - New productive forces, characterized by technological innovation, will fundamentally change the economic system's structure and operation, requiring a new institutional framework to support this transformation [3]. Group 2: Modern Production System - The modern production system is essential for carrying new productive forces, featuring innovation-driven, coordinated development, and green low-carbon characteristics [4]. - It aims to optimize resource allocation and production organization to achieve higher efficiency and address deep-seated issues in economic development [4]. Group 3: Modern Distribution System - The modern distribution system focuses on balancing efficiency and equity, optimizing resource allocation, and creating a mechanism for shared benefits [5]. - It emphasizes the importance of knowledge, technology, and human capital in income distribution, while also ensuring fairness and justice in the distribution process [5]. Group 4: Modern Circulation System - The modern circulation system plays a crucial role in resource allocation and market demand satisfaction, integrating new productive forces into its operations [6][7]. - It requires the application of advanced technologies and innovative models to enhance the efficiency of goods and services flow from production to consumption [6]. Group 5: Modern Consumption System - The modern consumption system is undergoing a transformation towards digitalization, intelligence, and ecological sustainability, driven by new consumer behaviors and preferences [7][11]. - It reflects a shift from traditional consumption to more dynamic and experiential forms, with significant growth in digital and green consumption sectors [11]. Group 6: Progress and Achievements - Significant progress has been made in building a modern economic system, with a notable increase in productive forces and improvements in production relations, contributing to healthy economic development [8][9]. - The GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2024, surpassing 130 trillion yuan, with strategic emerging industries rapidly developing and contributing to new economic advantages [8]. Group 7: Challenges and Issues - Despite achievements, challenges remain, including the need for higher value-added production, income distribution disparities, and inefficiencies in the circulation system [12]. - Coordination between different economic system components needs improvement to address mismatches in supply and demand and enhance overall economic performance [12]. Group 8: Future Directions - The key to building a modern economic system lies in developing new productive forces and establishing corresponding production relations [13]. - Emphasis on innovation-driven development, particularly in strategic emerging industries, is crucial for maintaining competitive advantages in the global market [13][14].