围绕中央经济工作会议首次提出的"把促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，朱 光耀认为推动物价合理温和回升，是当前货币政策的重要任务，这一政策指引极具战略意义。他表示， 当前CPI基本维持在稍高于0的水平，PPI已连续38个月处于负值，这一态势对宏观经济运行、企业利润 及财政增值税收入均产生了不利影响。 中央经济工作会议提出要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"，如何理解"积极有为"？如何看待更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策这套"组合拳"？财政部原副部长朱光耀在做客中国经济网《深谈》时进 行了深入解读。 面对当前经济发展面临的挑战，朱光耀在访谈中表示，中国拥有庞大的经济存量，我们既要正视挑战， 更要看到"十四五"期间取得的巨大成绩，这些都是未来发展的强大物质基础。在宏观经济政策层面，此 次未提及超常规政策，意味着通过更加积极有为的宏观经济政策组合，包括更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策，即可有效应对当前挑战。 谈及财政政策，朱光耀指出，2025年财政赤字率4%左右、地方专项债券发行4.4万亿元的规模，还有1.3 万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元的特别国债，这构成了政策有效落地的现实基 ...

中国经济网北京12月16日讯（记者 张翀） 中央经济工作会议提出要"实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策"，如何理解"积极有为"？如何看待更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策这套"组合拳"？财政 部原副部长朱光耀在做客中国经济网《深谈》时进行了深入解读。 （责任编辑：郭健东 ） 面对当前经济发展面临的挑战，朱光耀在访谈中表示，中国拥有庞大的经济存量，我们既要正视挑 战，更要看到"十四五"期间取得的巨大成绩，这些都是未来发展的强大物质基础。在宏观经济政策层 面，此次未提及超常规政策，意味着通过更加积极有为的宏观经济政策组合，包括更加积极的财政政策 和适度宽松的货币政策，即可有效应对当前挑战。 谈及财政政策，朱光耀指出，2025年财政赤字率4%左右、地方专项债券发行4.4万亿的规模，还有 1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000医院的特别国债，这构成了政策有效落地的现实基础。未来将通过更 积极的财政支持，持续推动经济高质量发展。而适度宽松的货币政策核心目标之一是解决物价问题，重 点推动物价向2%左右的合理区间靠拢。 围绕中央经济工作会议首次提出的"把促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量"，朱光耀认为推动物 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 平稳开局，重在增效 ——债券视角看中央经济工作会议 1、总体基调："稳中求进、提质增效"，力度或持稳、对扩大增量诉求下降， 对经济"质"要求高于"量"。"跨周期"也体现目光更长远、而非短期刺激。 2、财政政策：延续"更加积极"定调，强调"必要的财政赤字、债务总规模 和支出总量"，相较去年略偏保守，预计明年财政扩张力度基本维持、资金投 向进一步优化，准财政工具延续使用，配合实现投资"止跌回稳"目标。 债券研究 ❖ 二、货币政策：兼顾跨周期，如何操作？ 目标侧重关注增长和物价，淡化金融总量诉求。落点更突出"稳增长"与"物 价合理回升"。一是通过维持流动性合理充裕、降实体成本，配合财政加杠杆， 推动物价回升。二是更关注利率传导机制畅通，突出利率调控、合理的利率比 价关系的保持。 "灵活高效"运用降准降息。相较于"适时"降准降息或更加关注政策效果， 与兼顾"跨周期"调控的思路一致。明年降息窗口并未关闭，宽松基调延续或 对债市仍形成保护。中性情形政策利率或降息 1 次、幅度 10bp。基数影响下 为支持经济增速达标或需靠前发力，一季度末至二季度初落地概率或更高。 ❖ 三、重点任务： ...

Core Insights - The report from the China Macroeconomy Forum (CMF) analyzes the performance of China's economy during the 14th Five-Year Plan and forecasts the outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on growth trends, structural characteristics, risks, opportunities, and policy directions [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance in 2025 - In 2025, China's economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of approximately 4.9%, demonstrating a "front high, back low" trend due to external tariff impacts and internal real estate adjustments [1][2]. - Industrial production remains robust, with strong performance in manufacturing and services, while external demand exceeded expectations with a 4.5% increase in exports and a trade surplus surpassing $1.16 trillion [1][2][3]. - Domestic demand is notably weak, with consumption growth declining to 3% in the second half of the year and fixed asset investment decreasing by 2.5% [1][2][3]. Group 2: Transition to High-Quality Development - The 14th Five-Year Plan marked a critical transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with the economy surpassing 134 trillion yuan and R&D investment intensity rising to 2.68% [2][3]. - Key challenges include insufficient domestic demand, weak original innovation, tightening fiscal constraints, and regional development disparities [2][3]. Group 3: Opportunities and Challenges in 2026 - The beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan in 2026 presents three major opportunities: proactive planning, more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and initial signs of recovery in microeconomic entities [2][3]. - However, challenges remain, including declining export growth, investment slowdown, spillover effects from real estate adjustments, declining employment quality, limited fiscal effectiveness, and credit risks in small financial institutions [2][3]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests setting a cross-cycle target of 4.5%-5% real GDP growth, 1%-3% CPI inflation, and over 5% nominal GDP growth as a guiding principle for macroeconomic policy during the 15th Five-Year Plan [3][4]. - Emphasis is placed on expanding domestic demand, optimizing macro policy combinations, and implementing moderately loose monetary policies to stimulate consumption and investment [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged despite short-term challenges, with a projected GDP growth of around 5% in 2025 due to supportive fiscal and monetary policies, strong industrial resilience, and unexpected export growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The 2025 economic growth is expected to be around 5%, with a "front high and back low" trend, indicating strong growth in the first three quarters but potential internal demand issues [2][4] - The report predicts that the economic growth will maintain a medium-high pace over the next five years, but challenges such as declining exports, slowing investments, and real estate risks may arise [1][3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests setting cross-cycle composite goals for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, including a GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5%, a CPI target of 1% to 3%, and a nominal GDP growth target of over 5% [4] - Emphasis is placed on enhancing consumer spending, particularly among low- and middle-income groups, to drive economic growth [5][6] Group 3: Structural Challenges - The current economic constraints have shifted from supply to demand, with insufficient terminal demand identified as a core issue, particularly in service consumption related to basic public services [6][7] - The report highlights the need to address the dual structure of urban and rural economies, which contributes to income disparities and limits consumption growth [6][7] Group 4: Income and Employment - Increasing income is crucial for boosting consumption, with recommendations to enhance employment rates and stabilize business expectations as key strategies [7] - The report advocates for fiscal policies that focus on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups and improving the distribution of resources to enhance public services [7]

Core Insights - The report from the China Macro Economic Forum (CMF) indicates that by 2025, China's economy is expected to strive for breakthroughs and achieve its development goals, while 2026 will present new opportunities despite ongoing challenges [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period was crucial for China's transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development, maintaining economic stability amid global trade tensions and domestic pressures [2] - In 2025, China's economy is projected to grow at around 5%, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies, despite facing significant external uncertainties [2][4] - The year 2026 will mark the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to open new growth spaces and provide substantial support for reversing short-term economic downturns [3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The report suggests setting a cross-cycle target for 2026, including a real GDP growth target of 4.5%-5%, a CPI target of 1%-3%, and a nominal GDP growth target of over 5% [4] - It emphasizes the need for effective responses to the challenges posed by global economic slowdowns, trade tensions, and domestic structural transformations [3][4]