Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of avoiding foolish investments over seeking short-term high returns, suggesting that long-term success is achieved through careful decision-making and risk management [1] - The Chinese real estate market has experienced a significant upward cycle over the past four decades, but understanding shorter cycles is crucial for investment success [1] - The company has developed an investment model to navigate through cycles and achieve consistent compound returns, focusing on alternative real estate financial investments [1][2] Investment Strategy - The company has engaged with nearly one trillion yuan in cooperation demands, with substantial project evaluations leading to a balanced approach in project returns, risks, and liquidity [2] - Accurate predictions regarding the creditworthiness of listed real estate companies have allowed the company to avoid investment risks in stocks and credit bonds [3] - The investment strategy has evolved through a "real estate financial investment clock model," which categorizes market conditions and guides investment decisions based on asset and capital supply-demand relationships [4][5] Market Cycles - The investment clock model identifies four phases of market cycles, from initial demand gathering to peak and subsequent downturns, highlighting the importance of timing in investment decisions [5][6] - The model suggests that equity investments are optimal during market bottoms, while fixed-income investments are preferable at market peaks [7][12] - The company has maintained a cautious approach since 2020, focusing on net recovery and identifying opportunities in credit transactions amidst market uncertainties [8][9] Methodological Framework - The investment model is built on four pillars: macroeconomic cycle analysis, urban area selection, asset category selection, and management models [15] - The company emphasizes the importance of a robust management model that integrates risk control and long-term incentives to ensure sustainable investment outcomes [24][26] - The asset valuation and capital pricing model is critical for selecting quality assets and determining safe investment scales, utilizing a comprehensive approach to assess asset quality and management credibility [27][28] ESG Considerations - The investment model incorporates strong ESG principles, focusing on environmental sustainability, social responsibility, and effective governance [34][35] - The company aims to balance commercial interests with social benefits, promoting affordable housing and supporting small enterprises to stabilize market prices [35]