芒格先生曾指出，避免愚蠢，长期来看就能让我们更出色。 否定什么，往往比投资什么更重要；避免愚蠢可以产生的复利效果，往往大于试图"持续做出短期高回 报的聪明决定"。 基于在投资实践中的探索和对国内外头部同业观察、对标和质化研究，我们团队形成了一种投资模型， 以试图回答一个问题：如何穿越周期实现确定性复利回报，最终成为全周期投资胜率与收益率的领先 者？ 自2016年末开始开展投资业务，我们首先面临的问题是，究竟对标样本是谁？国际头部机构还是国内 的，居住类资产还是商办园区类资产，权益性投资还是固收类？ 在前期十多年房地产开发和金融投资从业经验基础上，经过近半年的投资探索和对标研究，笔者带领团 队基本确立了精选层不动产金融另类投资的业务模式。 我们累计接触合作需求近万亿元，实质性判断合作需求数千亿元，立项项目近百个，对其中优质项目实 施尽调投决，累计实现投资达同期同业机构的领先规模，实现了项目收益、风险和流动性的良好平衡。 我们对上市房企主体信用做出了准确预测，成功规避其股票及信用债投资风险。 特别是2019年即开始投资净回收；在2020至2021年大部分金融机构仍在加大投资的时候，公司核心领导 果断决策，我们实现 ...

Core Insights - The forum on C-REITs highlighted their critical role in China's real estate industry transformation, emphasizing their value in revitalizing existing assets, optimizing financing, and enhancing asset management capabilities [1][3][6] - The future of the C-REITs market is expected to see continued expansion in market size and underlying asset types, with a multi-tiered REITs system and regulatory framework gradually improving [3][6] - Collaboration among industry stakeholders is essential for sustainable development in the C-REITs sector, leveraging international best practices while exploring a unique Chinese model [3][6] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The Chinese real estate sector is undergoing a significant transition from large-scale expansion to enhancing existing stock quality, driven by changes in demand, supply, and financing [6][11] - C-REITs are positioned as a foundational institutional arrangement that can activate trillions of yuan in dormant assets and promote structural reforms in the industry [6][11] Group 2: C-REITs Market Dynamics - C-REITs are transforming illiquid real estate into publicly traded standardized financial products, enhancing asset liquidity and providing new investment channels for both institutional and individual investors [11][12] - The pricing dynamics between domestic C-REITs and international markets show significant discrepancies, with domestic assets often trading at a premium compared to their international counterparts [13][12] Group 3: Expert Perspectives - Experts from various sectors discussed the current state and future opportunities of C-REITs, emphasizing the need for regulatory support and innovative product development to enhance market participation [8][10] - The discussion highlighted the importance of asset characteristics such as stability, sustainability, and moderate growth potential for successful REITs [10][11] Group 4: Future Recommendations - Recommendations for the C-REITs market include simplifying the structure of public offerings, expanding asset types, and addressing land use rights to facilitate smoother operations [11][12] - The need for a more inclusive market ecosystem was emphasized, suggesting the introduction of international issuers and investors to enhance market depth and resilience [13][12]