2025 年贵金属市场的交易主线是什么？ 2025 年贵金属市场的交易主线可以分为两个阶段。第一个阶段是从年初到 8 月 7 日，对等关税落地前，市场主要围绕特朗普政府的贸易政策的不确定性进 行交易。第二个阶段从 8 月 7 日对等关税落地后，市场的交易主线切换回美联 储货币政策路径上的押注。 【有色贵金属】银河期货 2026 年投资策略会 20260107 摘要 2026 年贵金属市场将受美国及其他主要经济体的货币和财政政策影响， AI 叙事对宏观经济和市场情绪的影响将增强，地缘政治因素在特定时点 亦构成关注焦点。黄金作为避险资产，在康波周期萧条期及逆全球化背 景下价值易被高估，而以黄金计价的物价处于历史低位，预示黄金价格 可能仍有上涨空间。 美联储降息周期及央行购金潮是支撑黄金价格上涨的重要因素。尽管央 行购金量可能边际减少，但仍将长期稳定支撑黄金价格中枢。美国财政 状况恶化削弱美元和美债信用，促使市场寻求更可靠的避险资产，黄金 因此受益。预计 2026 年美联储仍将处于降息周期，黄金 ETF 需求将持 续。 白银受益于宏观流动性预期改善和基本面供需紧张。光伏、新能源汽车 和 AI 数据中心是白银工业领域 ...

金融工程专题 宏观因子的周期轮动与资产配置 ――金融工程专题 分析师：宋旸 SAC NO：S1150517100002 2025 年 12 月 30 日 核心观点： 风险提示：市场风格转换风险，第三方数据提供不准确风险， 历史结果不代表 未来收益，本报告不构成投资建议。 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 工 程 金 融 工 程 专 题 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 21 金 融 | 1. 宏观因子的去噪 | | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1 HP 滤波 | | 5 | | 1.2 傅里叶变换 | | 7 | | 1.3 混合滤波 | | 9 | | 2. 宏观因子单因子择时 | | 11 | | 2.1 宏观因子的股指择时 | | 11 | | 2.2 宏观因子的股债择时 | | 12 | | 3. 周期模型与资产配置 | | 13 | | 3.1 美林时钟模型 | | 14 | | 3.2 货币信用模型 | | 16 | | 4. 总结与未来展望 | | 18 | 证券分析师 宋旸 022-28451131 songyang@b ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of avoiding foolish investments over seeking short-term high returns, suggesting that long-term success is achieved through careful decision-making and risk management [1] - The Chinese real estate market has experienced a significant upward cycle over the past four decades, but understanding shorter cycles is crucial for investment success [1] - The company has developed an investment model to navigate through cycles and achieve consistent compound returns, focusing on alternative real estate financial investments [1][2] Investment Strategy - The company has engaged with nearly one trillion yuan in cooperation demands, with substantial project evaluations leading to a balanced approach in project returns, risks, and liquidity [2] - Accurate predictions regarding the creditworthiness of listed real estate companies have allowed the company to avoid investment risks in stocks and credit bonds [3] - The investment strategy has evolved through a "real estate financial investment clock model," which categorizes market conditions and guides investment decisions based on asset and capital supply-demand relationships [4][5] Market Cycles - The investment clock model identifies four phases of market cycles, from initial demand gathering to peak and subsequent downturns, highlighting the importance of timing in investment decisions [5][6] - The model suggests that equity investments are optimal during market bottoms, while fixed-income investments are preferable at market peaks [7][12] - The company has maintained a cautious approach since 2020, focusing on net recovery and identifying opportunities in credit transactions amidst market uncertainties [8][9] Methodological Framework - The investment model is built on four pillars: macroeconomic cycle analysis, urban area selection, asset category selection, and management models [15] - The company emphasizes the importance of a robust management model that integrates risk control and long-term incentives to ensure sustainable investment outcomes [24][26] - The asset valuation and capital pricing model is critical for selecting quality assets and determining safe investment scales, utilizing a comprehensive approach to assess asset quality and management credibility [27][28] ESG Considerations - The investment model incorporates strong ESG principles, focusing on environmental sustainability, social responsibility, and effective governance [34][35] - The company aims to balance commercial interests with social benefits, promoting affordable housing and supporting small enterprises to stabilize market prices [35]