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中国最大的威胁,从来不是美国,阴魂不散的日本,早晚会卷土重来
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-23 23:06
Economic Landscape - Japan is undergoing a significant structural transformation, moving out of deflation with a projected real GDP growth rate of 1.2% for 2025, contrary to the perception of a stagnant economy [6] - Japanese companies maintain a crucial position in the global supply chain, with an investment return rate of 18% from investments in China, significantly higher than returns from investments in Europe and ASEAN [6] Military Developments - Japan's defense budget has reached a record high of 8.7 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025, with plans to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, breaking the post-war "defensive" military stance [8] - The establishment of a "Joint Operations Command" by March 2025 will unify the command of the Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces, indicating a shift towards a more proactive military capability [8] Political Dynamics - The rise of right-wing and populist forces in Japan's political landscape is becoming increasingly influential, with radical parties gaining traction in the upcoming elections [12] - The current political climate is marked by a push for constitutional amendments and a normalization of Japan's military status, despite the Prime Minister's attempts to maintain a balanced approach [12] Strategic Implications - Japan's evolving role in the geopolitical landscape is characterized by deep economic ties with China while simultaneously enhancing its military capabilities and aligning closely with the U.S. [14] - The combination of economic interdependence and political opposition towards China creates a complex and uncertain relationship, necessitating a reevaluation of Japan's strategic intentions [14][16]