近日，美国海军将下一代核潜艇SSN（X）的建造从2035年推迟到2040年，这引起了急于逆转美军在西太平洋颓势的人们的焦虑。没错，美军在西太平洋 处于颓势之中，连F-15EX首次飞抵嘉手纳、参加REFORPAC 25演习都成了鼓舞士气的新闻。 嘉手纳可算是美军对抗中国的最前沿，这是美军干预台海的最重要基地，一直由已经老旧得不成样的F-15C驻守。F-15EX是50多年前就首飞的F-15的最新 型号，当然对美国来说，唯一可以挽尊的是中国歼-16也在继续生产。 REFORPAC全称是Resolute Force Pacific，这是向1967年开始的REFORGER演习致敬，不过REFORGER的全称是Return of Forces to Germany。 发动这一演习的背景是，在60年代，约翰逊决定扩大越南战争，美军计划从欧洲抽调两个师。为了显示美国对北约承诺的决心，再平衡被越南战争严重影 响的全球兵力部署格局，美国人发起了REFORGER演习。虽然更加确切的翻译是"部队重返德国"演习，但有人按照字面翻译成"重锤"演习，这个缩写无 疑也是美国刻意留给公众的印象之一。 REFORGER演习以北约遭到华约入侵为背 ...

当几乎所有人的目光都聚焦在太平洋对岸，为中美之间此起彼伏的关税博弈和科技摩擦而神经紧绷时， 一个近在咫尺的邻国，却在悄无声息中磨砺着它的獠牙，等待着时机。 没错，就是日本。 我们习惯于将美国视为最大的战略竞争对手，这固然没错，但这种思维定势，却可能让我们忽略了一个 更加危险、也更具迷惑性的存在。 美国的挑战是摆在明面上的阳谋，而日本的威胁，则更像是一场精心布局的阴谋，它潜藏在历史的阴影 之下，披着经济合作与和平主义的外衣，在不经意间，已经走到了足以让我们警醒的位置。 让我们先看看经济层面。很多人对日本的印象还停留在"失去的三十年"，认为其经济早已停滞不前。但 现实是，日本经济正在经历一场深刻的结构性变革。 2025年的今天，世界格局风云变幻。中美关系在经历了特朗普第二任期的波折后，似乎进入了一个暂时 的"休战期"。 双方在8月达成了暂停加征部分关税的协议，高层也在寻求对话，试图为紧张的关系降温。这种表面的 缓和，让许多人松了一口气。 然而，大国博弈的棋局，从来不是只有两个玩家。就在中美相互试探、拉扯的同时，日本这枚棋子，已 经开始具备了成为棋手的能力和野心。 我们必须清醒地认识到，日本的危险性，早已不是停留在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 80th anniversary of Japan's unconditional surrender, highlighting the ongoing issues of historical revisionism and militarization in Japan, particularly by right-wing factions [1][2][3]. Political Trends - The political landscape in Japan has shifted towards the right, with a noticeable decline in the acknowledgment of Japan's wartime actions. The statements made by past prime ministers have gradually weakened over the years, moving from explicit apologies to attempts to downplay historical grievances [2][3]. - The rise of extreme right-wing parties in Japan's recent elections indicates a growing influence of revisionist history perspectives, which may further entrench militaristic ideologies within the political sphere [3]. Historical Narrative - The current narrative in Japan emphasizes victimhood, particularly regarding the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, while neglecting the country's wartime aggressions against other nations. This selective memory is becoming more prevalent in Japanese society [4][6][7]. - Recent polls show a significant portion of the Japanese population either does not recognize or is unaware of Japan's role in wartime aggression, with only 35% acknowledging it as an invasion [6]. Military Expansion - Japan is moving towards a more militarized stance, with plans to significantly increase defense spending and develop offensive military capabilities. The government aims to raise defense expenditures to approximately 43 trillion yen over the next five years [8]. - The procurement of advanced weaponry, including cruise missiles, indicates a shift from a defensive posture to one that includes offensive capabilities, raising concerns about Japan's military intentions [8][9]. Economic Implications - The potential intertwining of Japan's economy with military production and exports poses significant concerns. The recent decision to export advanced warships marks a notable shift in Japan's post-war defense policy [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for Japan to deeply reflect on its history of aggression, especially as the 80th anniversary of its unconditional surrender approaches, while highlighting the rise of right-wing forces that seek to downplay this history and portray Japan as a victim [1][2]. Group 1: Political Trends - The political landscape in Japan has shifted towards the right, with notable changes in the tone of official statements regarding historical reflection, moving from the strong apologies of the past to a more diluted acknowledgment of wartime actions [2][3]. - The rise of extreme right-wing parties in Japan's recent elections indicates a growing influence of revisionist historical perspectives, which may further entrench these views in the political discourse [3]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Historical Narrative - A recent NHK poll revealed that only 35% of respondents recognized Japan's actions during the war as aggression against Asian countries, with a significant portion of the population either unsure or denying this perspective [4][5]. - The narrative of Japan as a "victim" of war, particularly in the context of the atomic bombings, has overshadowed the acknowledgment of its own wartime aggressions, leading to a skewed historical understanding among the populace [5][6]. Group 3: Military Expansion - Japan's government has been progressively loosening its post-war pacifist stance, with plans to significantly increase defense spending and develop offensive military capabilities, reflecting a shift towards a more militarized posture [6][7]. - The recent decision by Australia to procure upgraded Japanese warships marks a significant step in Japan's military exports, indicating a potential merging of its economy with military production, which raises concerns about the implications of such a trend [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. has deployed the second nuclear submarine, "Indiana," to Hawaii this month, following the earlier deployment of the "Toledo" submarine in July [1][3] - The "Indiana" submarine, which arrived at its new home port at Pearl Harbor-Hickam Joint Base on the 22nd, is now the third Virginia-class submarine under the U.S. Navy's seventh submarine squadron [3] - The Pentagon is reportedly enhancing military deployments in the Western Pacific region in response to perceived threats from China's growing military capabilities [4] Group 2 - The "Indiana" submarine, which entered service in 2018, is the 16th Virginia-class submarine and features two large payload launch tubes capable of firing six Tomahawk cruise missiles each, with a range of 1,000 miles (approximately 1,600 kilometers) [4] - The current submarine squadron stationed at Pearl Harbor supports seven fast-attack submarines, including three Virginia-class and four Los Angeles-class submarines [3]

Group 1 - The United States has imposed a 25% tariff on Japanese products, surprising Japan which had hoped for a 10% limit [1] - Japan's Defense Ministry submitted a new defense white paper on July 15, highlighting China as the largest strategic challenge and exaggerating military threats [3][4] - The white paper, spanning 534 pages, uses the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to amplify fears regarding China and Russia's strategic cooperation [3] Group 2 - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida quoted "Today Ukraine, tomorrow East Asia," indicating strong support for the US Indo-Pacific strategy while facing US-imposed tariffs [4] - Japan's Self-Defense Forces have surpassed the military capabilities of most countries, indicating a strategic purpose behind the perceived military threats from China and Russia [4] - The US has supplied Japan with advanced weaponry, including F-35 fighter jets and Tomahawk missiles, to bolster its military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region [4] Group 3 - Japan's aggressive stance is largely dependent on US support, yet the ongoing tariff war indicates Japan may pay a price for its reliance on the US [6] - Despite close economic ties with China, Japan has adopted a hardline political and military stance, exemplified by recent provocations in the East China Sea [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in former President Trump's stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, revealing his encouragement for Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory, including Moscow, if provided with long-range weapons [2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Position and Discussions - Trump privately urged Ukraine to enhance its military actions against Russia, indicating a departure from his previous commitment to reduce U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts [2]. - During a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky on July 4, Trump inquired if Ukraine could target Moscow with U.S. supplied long-range weapons, to which Zelensky affirmed the capability if provided with the necessary arms [2][3]. - The conversation reflects a growing desire among Ukraine's Western partners to supply long-range weapons that could bring the conflict to Russian territory [3]. Group 2: Military Aid and Weaponry - Following the Trump-Zelensky discussion, a potential list of weapons for Ukraine was shared during a meeting in Rome, which could allow the U.S. to bypass Congress's freeze on direct military aid by authorizing European allies to supply arms to Ukraine [3]. - Ukraine has requested long-range "Tomahawk" cruise missiles with a range of approximately 1,600 kilometers, but concerns about Ukraine's lack of restraint have been expressed by both Trump and Biden administrations [3][4]. - Trump announced a plan to provide Ukraine with "Patriot" air defense systems and intercept missiles, but did not disclose details on other weapon systems [3]. Group 3: Russian Response and Military Dynamics - Russia has threatened to attack Western targets in response to advanced weapon supplies to Ukraine, but has not yet acted on these threats [5]. - Following Ukraine's use of ATACMS to strike Russian territory, Putin indicated that the conflict has global implications and warned of potential retaliatory actions against countries supplying Ukraine with weapons [5]. - Washington has previously cautioned Ukraine against deep strikes into Russia, but these restrictions appear to be loosening as Ukraine employs domestically produced drones for attacks on Russian military targets [6].

Core Points - The "Blade Shield-2025" joint military exercise, involving over 35,000 personnel from the US, Australia, and 17 other countries, aims to enhance political trust and military interoperability among allies in the Asia-Pacific region [1][4] - This exercise is the largest and most complex of its kind ever held in Australia, expanding its scope to include new areas and additional participating nations [4][5] Group 1 - The exercise will take place from July 13 to August 4, 2025, with activities occurring in various locations including Queensland, Western Australia, New South Wales, and Christmas Island [4] - A total of 19 countries are participating, an increase of 6 compared to 2023, with notable participants including Canada, Germany, India, and the UK [4][5] - The exercise will cover a wide range of military operations, including amphibious landings, air combat, and live-fire exercises involving various military assets [4][5] Group 2 - The exercise will incorporate new elements such as cyber warfare and AI military applications, reflecting modern warfare trends [5] - The US Army plans to test a new capability for pre-positioning equipment and supplies in the Pacific theater during the exercise [6] - The "Blade Shield" exercise is linked to the ongoing "Return of Forces to the Pacific" exercise, which involves nearly 300 aircraft and thousands of personnel [6] Group 3 - The US Army will conduct the first live-fire test of the "Typhon" medium-range missile system in the Pacific region during this exercise [9] - The "Typhon" system is part of the US Army's Long Range Precision Fires program, capable of launching various missiles with significant ranges [9] - The US military is progressively enhancing its medium-range missile capabilities in the Western Pacific, with potential future deployments of additional missile systems [10][11]

Core Points - The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on Japanese imports, with Japan still having a chance to negotiate before the official implementation on August 1 [1][16] - Japan's historical trade relations with the U.S. have often involved negotiations that appear to be losses but ultimately maintain profitability for Japan [1][7] - Current negotiations are complicated by the difficulty of achieving profit margins that can offset the new tariff rates, particularly in the automotive sector [2][9] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Japan's trade negotiations with the U.S. have historically involved a strategy of focusing on one industry while making concessions in others, with automobiles being a significant export category [8][9] - The Japanese government has made extensive preparations for negotiations, including understanding Trump's personality and previous successful strategies used by former Prime Minister Abe [4][6] - Despite these efforts, the U.S. has shown little willingness to lower the proposed tariffs, leading to frustration within Japan [3][15] Group 2: Economic Context - Japan's trade deficit with the U.S. is significantly lower than that of China and the EU, suggesting that Japan should not be subjected to high tariffs [7][8] - The U.S. is facing economic challenges, including a substantial national debt of $37 trillion, which limits its ability to offer favorable trade terms to Japan [14][15] - Japan has proposed to import significant amounts of U.S. defense equipment as part of the negotiations, which could help balance trade but may not address the underlying tariff issues [11][12] Group 3: Political Implications - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections could influence the urgency and outcomes of the trade negotiations, as success could bolster the current administration's standing [17] - The relationship between Japan and the U.S. is marked by uncertainty, with Japan feeling the pressure of a changing global trade landscape [17][18] - Japan's attempts to align its military procurement with U.S. interests are seen as a strategy to strengthen the bilateral alliance amid rising tensions with China [11][14]

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of the recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities is being questioned, with claims of significant damage being challenged by intercepted communications from Iranian officials [1][2]. Group 1: Military Action and Impact - The U.S. military used powerful munitions, including a 30,000-pound (approximately 14-ton) bunker buster bomb and Tomahawk cruise missiles, to strike three Iranian nuclear sites [2]. - Reports indicate that while the explosions sealed entrances to two nuclear facilities, they did not destroy the underground structures, and Iran had relocated enriched uranium prior to the attack [5]. - U.S. intelligence officials claim that key components of Iran's nuclear program, including metal conversion facilities, were "completely destroyed," with reconstruction expected to take years [5][7]. Group 2: Government Responses and Disputes - The Trump administration has strongly refuted Iranian officials' assessments of the strikes, labeling them as erroneous and asserting that the military action achieved its intended effects [5][6]. - White House Press Secretary and Pentagon officials criticized media reports as politically motivated and misleading, emphasizing the military's success [1][6]. - There is a divide among U.S. lawmakers regarding the effectiveness of the strikes, with some believing that the core components of Iran's nuclear program remain intact and capable of being quickly restored [7][8].