Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The trade return ratio has turned positive again, and the service trade deficit has significantly narrowed [16][18] - The cross-border capital flow is expected to gradually return, positively impacting domestic liquidity [5][19] - The service trade deficit for December 2025 was 966 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 466 billion CNY, with a full-year deficit of 13,760 billion CNY, down 2,544 billion CNY, approximately 16% [18] Summary by Sections 1. Current Observation - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released data on China's international balance of payments for December 2025, indicating a potential impact on the central bank's willingness to settle foreign exchange [16] - The trade return ratio is at a historical high, with a monthly unconverted trade net outflow of 447 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1,392 billion CNY [17] 2. Arbitrage Trading Returns - The arbitrage trading return rate for 10Y US Treasury bonds in CNY has dropped significantly to -1.77%, indicating a shift in cross-border capital dynamics [17] 3. Service Trade Deficit - The service trade deficit has narrowed significantly, with major contributions from improved policies for foreign visitors, reduced international shipping costs, and enhanced competitiveness in high-tech services [18] 4. Cross-Border Liquidity Outlook - Despite the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the trend of cross-border capital return is expected to continue, influenced by the Fed's monetary policy stance [19][21] - The short-term liquidity in the US remains tight, with limited space for balance sheet reduction, while long-term prospects depend on economic performance [20][21]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20251214 出口韧性累积蓄水池，联储鸽派降息助推资金回流 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [联系人： Table_Contacts] 李文洁 021-38003644 gfliwenjie@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-14 21:42:46 1 / 24 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 12/24 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 银行 沪深300 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | --- | --- | | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 林虎 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 | | | SFC CE No. BWK411 | | | 021-38003643 | | | gflinhu@gf.com.cn | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar, with the SDR to Renminbi exchange rate increasing by 1.13% during the observation period [4][10] - The report notes that the China-US interest rate differential remains stable, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 8 basis points, while the 10-year Chinese government bond yield increased by 9 basis points [4][11] - The performance of Chinese assets in the US market has been strong, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 4.93%, outperforming the Nasdaq Index, which fell by 3.45% [4][11] Summary by Sections 1. Arbitrage Trading Returns - The report indicates that the Renminbi has depreciated primarily due to the strengthening of non-US currencies, with the SDR to Renminbi exchange rate at 9.64 at the end of the observation period [10] - The interest rate differential between China and the US is stable, with the 6M, 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y differentials at -2.67%, -2.50%, -2.42%, -2.52%, and -2.65% respectively [11] - The actual annual yield from arbitrage trading on US Treasuries in Renminbi terms is calculated at 2.33% for the 10-year bonds, reflecting a decrease of 0.79 percentage points from the previous period [11] 2. SDR Major Economies Tracking - The report tracks the performance of major economies, noting that the US unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in February, higher than expected, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 [4][11] - In Europe, the ECB's hawkish stance led to a significant appreciation of the Euro, with the ECB lowering key rates by 25 basis points [10][11] - The report also highlights the performance of the A-share market, which rose by 2.43% during the observation period, indicating a strong performance compared to other major economies [11]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20250309 人民币兑美元大幅升值，中美利差稳定 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -14% -6% 1% 9% 16% 24% 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 03/25 银行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | 021-38003646 | | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： 许洁 | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260518080004 | | | SFC CE No. BNU965 | | 021-38003625 | | | xujie@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | | | --- | --- | | 银行行业:基于潘行长 ...