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政策预期继续发酵,建议逢低做多,谨慎追高
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 01:40
走势评级: 短期-震荡 期货研究报告 宏观金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 股指日报 中短期-看涨 宋婧琪 从业资格证号:F03100886 投资咨询证号:Z0021165 联系电话:0571-28132632 邮箱:songjingqi@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编:311200 政策预期继续发酵,建议逢低做多,谨慎追高 报告内容摘要: [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期: 2025 年 10 月 09 日 [Table_Summary] 宏观股市信息: 股指盘面回顾: 本次国庆假期期间,国内消息面整体运行平稳,海外方面美国政府停摆问题 持续发酵,但从外围股指的实际反应来看,波动暂时有限。另一方面,在本 轮 A 股股指上涨行情中,外资的贡献比例本就不高,这意味着后续来自国际 层面的影响有限。未来,中美利差收敛的预期下,宏观层面风险可认为已基 本出清,股指大趋势进入易涨难跌阶段。短期来看,节前市场处于高位整固 状态,长期基本面改善 vs 短期估值高位是多空的主要矛盾点,10 月向上或 ...
2025年9月30日国债期货行情异动原因分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 04:24
行情异动概述 2025年9月30日国债期货市场出现显著盘中异动,午盘各期限合约集体反弹上涨,与开盘时的普遍下跌 形成鲜明对比。具体来看,当日开盘时市场情绪偏谨慎,30年期主力合约低开0.17%,10年期、5年期 和2年期主力合约均微跌0.01%;而到午盘时段,各合约全面翻红,且涨幅呈现明显分化特征12。 各期限合约午盘表现差异显著: 值得注意的是,30年期国债期货主力合约当日波动较大,盘中曾出现0.30%的下跌,最终午盘收涨 0.07%,显示长端品种多空博弈激烈3。与此同时,2年期国债期货主力合约价格稳定在102.368元,涨跌 值0.036,体现了短端市场的相对平稳4。这种差异化行情为后续分析市场资金流向与情绪变化提供了重 要观察窗口。 9月召开的央行三季度货币政策委员会例会(总第110次)释放出强烈的逆周期调节信号。相较于二季 度"保持经济稳定增长"的表述,本次例会明确提出"** 促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平",并强 调" 加强货币政策调控 "" 保持流动性充裕 **",要求"根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况, **灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏 **"910。 政策面驱动因素 今日国债期货行 ...
北上活跃度回落,整体继续净卖出但幅度有所放缓
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-29 12:36
宏观流动性: 上周美元指数继续回升,中美利差"倒挂"程度有所加深。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回升,通胀预期回落。离岸美元 流动性有所收紧,国内银行间资金面整体平衡,期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性: 上周两融净买入 264.79 亿元,行业上,两融主要净买入电子、通信、电新等板块,净卖出有色、医药、非银等板块。 其中,房地产、通信、传媒等板块融资买入占比环比上升。风格上,两融继续净买入大盘/中盘/小盘成长、小盘价值。 龙虎榜交易热度继续回落 上周龙虎榜买卖总额、龙虎榜买卖总额占全 A 成交额之比均继续回落。行业层面,纺服、电力及公用事业、电子等板 块龙虎榜买卖总额占比相对较高且仍在上升。 主动偏股基金仓位有所回落,ETF 被整体净申购 市场交易热度有所回落,除深证 100 外,其余主要指数波动率同样回落。行业上,电子、汽车、消费者服务、房地产、 纺服、通信等板块交易热度在 80%分位数以上,通信板块的波动率处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研: 电子、医药、通信、有色、食品饮料等板块调研热度居前,机械、交运、银行、消费者服务等板块的调研热度环比仍 在上升。 分析师预测: 全 A 的 ...
拆解莱克电气海外生存样本:61亿存款躺账却狂借46亿,吃中美利差半年赚1.25亿利息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 10:15
(图片来源:网络) 出品|搜狐财经 作者|李保铭 莱克电气半年报发布后,"归母净利下滑"成为外界关注的焦点。而且,在其财报发出后不久,莱克电气高管宣布拟进行减持。 作为一家长期依赖出海企业,"对等关税"等灰天鹅事件对其影响颇深。也同时让莱克电气成为外界观察关税对家电企业影响的一个窗口。 与此同时,其毛利率也出现一定下滑。上半年,其整体毛利率为23.2%,同比下滑1.7个百分点;其中清洁健康家电与园艺工具毛利率下滑1.69个百分点,电 机、新能运汽车精密零部件以及其他零部件产品下滑1.76个百分点。 从三费层面来看,莱克电气增长最快的是销售费用。上半年销售费用2.49亿元,同比增长23.71%。其中占比最高的是销售服务费从9694万元增至1.56亿元, 占比达62.42%、增幅达60.51%。 为了解决这些出海难题,莱克电气也花大力气海外建厂,并承担起出口关税,这两项支出对其利润也产生了一定影响。 在众多风险之外,莱克电气探索出一条特殊的盈利模式。通过海外存款、国内借款的模式,莱克电气一年利息收入占归母净利比重超过2成,今年以来更是 逼近3成。 问题是,在当前美联储降息、中美利差缩小的背景下,这套模式还能玩多久 ...
外汇周报:假期叠加数据,关注上下沿测试-20250928
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 11:05
外汇周报 | 2025-09-28 美国方面,8 月 PCE 年率为 2.7%,核心 PCE 为 2.9%,表明消费和服务端价格具有较强支撑。制造业端的 PPI 同比与环比均下滑,反映成本动力在减弱。初请失业金人数的上升则暗示劳动力市场可能开始松动,这样的通胀 ——就业错位使市场对美联储原定的降息路径产生疑虑。再加上美国近期提出对药品、厨柜等商品加征较高关税 政策,使政策环境的不确定性进一步强化美元走势的黏性。 中国方面,出口增速继续回落,进口恢复力度不足,外需制约仍在。8 月 CPI 同比下降 0.4%,PPI 同比下降 2.9%, 通缩压力尚存但降幅收窄。金融层面,新增贷款和社会融资虽出现回升,但力度偏温。汇率层面,目前逆周期因 子尚未启动。 从基本面来看,1)经济预期差(chā)利好人民币:美国 PCE/核心 PCE 显示通胀有黏性但生产端与就业边际走弱, 中国通缩压力边际缓解;2)中美利差(chā)中性:美国债券收益率仍高位,国内利率稳定,利差虽缩窄但未逆转, 对人民币支撑有限;3)贸易政策不确定性中性:关税政策与贸易摩擦可能反复,但其影响尚未形成明确方向性。 其他货币 欧元:欧元兑美元走势偏弱,整体 ...
债市资讯平台排名出炉,新浪财经APP综合性能稳居第一
Xin Lang Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 07:24
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical importance of timely and professional information in the rapidly changing bond market, highlighting that the ability to access and interpret data quickly can lead to significant investment opportunities or risk mitigation [1]. Group 1: Importance of Information in Bond Market - In the current bond market, subtle fluctuations in government bond yields and corporate bond credit spreads can create substantial profit opportunities or risks [1]. - Professional investors face challenges in selecting efficient tools amidst a plethora of financial information platforms [1]. Group 2: Evaluation Criteria for Bond Information Tools - Five key standards are essential for evaluating bond market information tools: comprehensive market data coverage, real-time timeliness and alert capabilities, in-depth analysis and strategy conversion, user-friendly tools, and cross-market perspective [3][4]. - A top-tier platform should provide real-time monitoring of market anomalies and instant analysis of policy impacts on various bond types [3][4]. Group 3: Comparison of Leading Bond Information Platforms - The article identifies five prominent bond news applications, each excelling in different areas [5]. - Wind is noted as the preferred choice for financial institutions, offering extensive historical data and unique indicators, but at a high cost [6][7]. - iFinD stands out for its intelligent strategy engine, although it has limitations in data timeliness [8][9]. - 东方财富Choice is recommended for beginners due to its free access to basic bond market data, but lacks advanced analytical tools [10]. - 智通财经 excels in rapid news updates but requires integration with other platforms for comprehensive analysis [11][12]. Group 4: Advantages of Sina Finance APP - In a 2025 evaluation, Sina Finance APP achieved the highest score due to its extensive market coverage, real-time alerts, and comprehensive analysis capabilities [13]. - The platform provides seamless monitoring of over 40 markets and detailed data on various bond types, including unique visualizations of cross-border capital flows [14]. - Its alert system can notify users of significant market movements within three seconds, enhancing trading decision-making [15]. - The platform's AI-driven features allow for efficient data processing and strategy generation, providing users with institutional-level decision-making capabilities [19][20]. Group 5: Tailored Solutions for Different Investor Needs - Investors are encouraged to choose tools based on their specific requirements, with combinations suggested for various user types [21][22][23][24]. - The article concludes that as global financial market volatility increases, the ability to process information efficiently will be crucial for professional investors [25].
LPR连续四个月维持不变,年内仍有下行空间
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 23:29
两个期限贷款市场报价利率(LPR)连续4个月维持不变。展望未来,业内专家认为,随着美联储重启 降息,我国货币政策操作空间有望进一步拓宽。招联首席研究员董希淼在接受记者采访时表示,近期美 联储开启2024年12月以来的首次降息,为全球市场提供更宽松的流动性环境。而且,美联储年底前还可 能继续降息。在这种趋势下,中美利差压力和人民币汇率压力将有所减轻,外部约束减弱,将为中国货 币政策带来更为宽松的外部环境,我国货币政策调整空间会更大。(上证报) ...
LPR连续四个月维持不变 年内仍有下行空间
Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for four consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, aligning with market expectations [2] Group 1: Current LPR Situation - The stability of LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy rates and the lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR spreads due to historical low net interest margins [2][4] - Recent increases in medium to long-term market interest rates, such as the AAA-rated interbank certificates of deposit and 10-year government bond yields, have influenced market expectations [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - Experts predict potential downward adjustments in policy rates and LPR by the end of the year to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [3] - The easing of external constraints due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may provide a more favorable environment for China's monetary policy adjustments [2][5] Group 3: Constraints on LPR Changes - The decline of LPR is constrained by factors such as bank interest margins, which could be negatively impacted by rapid LPR decreases, and the already low levels of deposit rates [4] - The current low levels of newly issued loan rates further limit the space for reducing deposit rates [4] Group 4: Monetary Policy Strategy - The central bank is expected to maintain a balanced approach, focusing on internal and external factors while implementing moderately loose monetary policies, with a preference for reserve requirement ratio cuts over interest rate reductions [5] - Future LPR changes will need to balance multiple objectives, including growth stabilization, interest margin maintenance, and foreign trade stability [5]
资金跟踪系列之十二:北上活跃度回升,整体继续净卖出
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-22 12:55
Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of the China-US interest rate "inversion" has deepened, with inflation expectations also rising [1][14] - Offshore US dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced [1][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with most industry trading activities remaining above the 80th percentile [2][25] - Major indices' volatility has also risen, with the communication sector's volatility exceeding the 80th historical percentile [2][31] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with all sectors' liquidity indicators below the 40th historical percentile [2][36] Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, communication, non-ferrous metals, and automotive sectors have seen high research activity, while sectors like steel, electricity, utilities, machinery, light industry, building materials, and real estate have shown a rising trend in research activity [3][43] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have continued to lower the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with the proportion of stocks with upward revisions increasing [4][50] - The net profit forecasts for sectors such as non-bank financials, chemicals, coal, and retail have been raised for 2025/2026 [4][21] - The net profit forecast for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025/2026 has been adjusted upward [4][23] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, but there continues to be a net sell-off overall [5][31] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and communication has risen, while it has decreased in non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals [5][32] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing has reached a high point not seen since September 2024, with a net purchase of 466.70 billion yuan last week [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing were in the electronic, non-bank financial, and machinery sectors, while net sales were seen in military, non-ferrous metals, and coal sectors [6][39] Active Equity Funds and ETFs - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in coal, communication, and home appliance sectors, while reducing positions in computers, non-bank financials, and electronics [7][45] - ETFs have continued to see net subscriptions, primarily in personal ETFs, with significant net purchases in non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors [7][52]
美联储降息,中国不跟,9月利率维持不变!今年还有可能降息吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 10:32
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024, leading to speculation about whether China will follow suit [1] - On September 22, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintained the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating that China is not immediately following the U.S. rate cut [1][3] - The PBOC's monetary policy remains stable due to deep institutional logic, with a focus on market-oriented interest rate reforms and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate becoming the new policy anchor [3][5] Group 2 - The PBOC conducted a 3.543 trillion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a stable rate of 1.4%, suggesting that the LPR is unlikely to decrease this month [4] - Despite a cumulative reduction of 135 basis points in the five-year LPR from 4.85% to 3.5%, the actual interest rate remains relatively high due to the "negative inflation effect" [4] - The divergence in monetary policy between China and the U.S. is rooted in differences in financial systems, with China maintaining a relatively loose monetary policy environment based on domestic economic needs [5] Group 3 - Following the U.S. rate cut, the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. has narrowed, but the U.S. policy rate remains significantly higher, providing room for potential rate cuts in China [6] - The fourth quarter may present an important window for China to implement rate cuts, with the possibility of the U.S. Federal Reserve making two more rate cuts by the end of the year [6][8] - The probability of a rate cut in China has significantly increased due to the ongoing economic recovery needs, with varying impacts on different segments of the population [8] Group 4 - China's monetary policy will continue to adhere to a "self-directed" approach, not blindly following U.S. policy while considering international economic and financial changes [10] - The focus will be on serving the real economy through targeted support for key areas and maintaining overall financial stability, which is crucial for the long-term stability of the Chinese economy [10]