热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 人民币对美元汇率节后快速升值，在岸、离岸重返三年前高位。 2月25日至26日，人民币汇率加速上行，在岸、离岸人民币先后突破6.87、6.84关口，离岸人民币于26日 最高触及6.82665，创下2023年4月以来新高。 今年以来，在岸、离岸人民币对美元累计上涨幅度均在2%左右，自2025年末突破7.0关口后始终维持强 势运行格局。 尽管人民币近期快速升值，但专家提醒，人民币汇率走势受多重因素驱动，核心变量集中在中美利差、 国内经济修复力度，以及全球风险偏好。预计人民币年度走势维持波动稳定、小幅升值的格局。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青判断，如果2026年人民币汇率出现背离基本面的急涨急跌情况，包括中间 价调控在内，监管层稳汇市工具会果断出手，释放清晰政策信号。历史表明，这些政策工具能够起到有 效引导市场预期，防范汇率超调风险的作用。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟也表示，央行在汇率形成机制上的操作更注重逆周期调节。 政策的目标并非追求升值，而是确保人民币在全球货币体系中的可信度。 节后汇率强势拉升 春节后人民币汇率强势回升。 对于近期人民 ...

2月25日至26日，人民币汇率加速上行，在岸、离岸人民币先后突破6.87、6.84关口，离岸人民币于26日 最高触及6.82665，创下2023年4月以来新高。 今年以来，在岸、离岸人民币对美元累计上涨幅度均在2%左右，自2025年末突破7.0关口后始终维持强 势运行格局。 尽管人民币近期快速升值，但专家提醒，人民币汇率走势受多重因素驱动，核心变量集中在中美利差、 国内经济修复力度，以及全球风险偏好。预计人民币年度走势维持波动稳定、小幅升值的格局。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青判断，如果2026年人民币汇率出现背离基本面的急涨急跌情况，包括中间 价调控在内，监管层稳汇市工具会果断出手，释放清晰政策信号。历史表明，这些政策工具能够起到有 效引导市场预期，防范汇率超调风险的作用。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟也表示，央行在汇率形成机制上的操作更注重逆周期调节。 政策的目标并非追求升值，而是确保人民币在全球货币体系中的可信度。 节后汇率强势拉升 春节后人民币汇率强势回升。 2月25日，在岸及离岸人民币对美元双双升破6.87关口，创下2023年4月以来新高。人民币对美元中间价 报6.9231，调升93个基点。 ...

最近，人民币汇率闹得挺大的动静，尤其是离岸市场那边，美元兑人民币直接冲破了6.90关口，这事儿 在2026年2月10日亚洲交易时段就发生了。 离岸人民币兑美元最高升到6.9060，在岸也破了6.92关口，最高到6.9112。中间价那天上调了65点，报 6.9458。 美元指数两连跌，掉到一周低位，这给人民币提供了上行空间。之前隔夜离岸人民币就破了6.92，是近 三年来的头一次。 人民币这波走强不是单方面的事儿，内外部因素都推了一把。 外资涌入是另一个大亮点。市场数据显示，北向资金通道持续净流入，A股优质个股走势稳健。债券市 场外资持仓也在增加，国债收益率小幅下行。 外资机构通过香港渠道买入人民币债券，资金从欧美账户划入，单日流入超千亿元。人民币国际化步伐 快了，在国际结算中的份额扩大，这让市场预期更稳定。 机构分析说，随着季节性结汇需求上升，出口企业春节前集中换汇，也推高了买盘。美元走弱，非美货 币集体上扬，这些都叠加起来，让人民币阶段性强势明显。 上周CFETS人民币汇率指数涨1.35，BIS货币篮子指数涨1.38，SDR篮子指数涨0.92。 不过，人民币会不会真开启"狂飙"模式，还得看后续。专家提醒，虽然 ...

2026.02. 12 本文字数：2679，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 春节临近，人民币汇率一路"昂首向上"。2月12日，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中双双升破6.9 整数关口，并创下阶段性新高，成为节前金融市场的一大亮点。 同日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对 人民币6.9457元，相较前一交易日中间价6.9438，调贬19基点。 多位市场分析人士认为，本轮人民币走强得益于外部环境改善、美元走弱、企业结汇需求释放、市场 情绪升温等多重利好因素共振，与此同时，人民币对美元中间价持续向偏弱方向调控，意在引导市场 预期，防范短期内人民币过快升值。 随着9天春节长假临近，春节期间汇率将如何演绎？是否适合持汇过节等问题也成为当前市场关注的 焦点。 节前人 民币走强 最近一段时间，人民币汇率保持韧性，在岸与离岸联动走强，趋势高度一致，是内外部环境、跨境资 金流入、市场预期共同作用的结果， 数据显示，人民币汇率自2025年12月底升破7.0关口后，2026年初延续升值趋势。 "近期人民币对美元持续升值，延续了2025年12月以来的偏强走势。"东方金诚首 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is influenced by multiple factors, including improved external conditions, a weaker USD, and increased corporate demand for currency exchange, while the People's Bank of China is managing the RMB's midpoint rate to prevent rapid appreciation [1][2][7]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has recently appreciated, with both onshore and offshore rates breaking the 6.9 mark against the USD, marking a significant pre-holiday financial market highlight [1]. - The midpoint rate for the RMB against the USD was set at 6.9457 on February 12, a depreciation of 19 basis points from the previous day [1]. - Analysts attribute the RMB's strength to a combination of external environment improvements, a weaker USD, and seasonal corporate currency exchange demands [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Exchange Rate During Spring Festival - Key factors affecting the RMB exchange rate during the Spring Festival include changes in the US-China interest rate differential, the USD index, domestic cross-border capital flows, and market expectations regarding economic policies [3][4]. - The market is expected to remain optimistic, with continued corporate demand for currency exchange leading up to the holiday, while the likelihood of a significant rebound in the USD index is low [4]. Group 3: Implications for Residents and Businesses - For residents, the appreciation of the RMB reduces currency exchange costs, making it a favorable time for overseas travel and study, but decisions should be based on actual needs rather than speculation [5][6]. - For foreign trade enterprises, the RMB's appreciation may affect exchange rate gains, but it is not expected to significantly impact export levels; businesses are advised to manage foreign exchange risks through hedging strategies [6][7]. Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China has been adjusting the RMB midpoint rate to guide market expectations and prevent rapid appreciation, indicating a focus on maintaining stability in the exchange rate [7][8]. - Future RMB exchange rate movements will depend on the USD's performance, external economic conditions, and the effectiveness of domestic growth policies, with predictions suggesting a range of 6.85 to 7.05 in February [8].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The trade return ratio has turned positive again, and the service trade deficit has significantly narrowed [16][18] - The cross-border capital flow is expected to gradually return, positively impacting domestic liquidity [5][19] - The service trade deficit for December 2025 was 966 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 466 billion CNY, with a full-year deficit of 13,760 billion CNY, down 2,544 billion CNY, approximately 16% [18] Summary by Sections 1. Current Observation - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) released data on China's international balance of payments for December 2025, indicating a potential impact on the central bank's willingness to settle foreign exchange [16] - The trade return ratio is at a historical high, with a monthly unconverted trade net outflow of 447 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1,392 billion CNY [17] 2. Arbitrage Trading Returns - The arbitrage trading return rate for 10Y US Treasury bonds in CNY has dropped significantly to -1.77%, indicating a shift in cross-border capital dynamics [17] 3. Service Trade Deficit - The service trade deficit has narrowed significantly, with major contributions from improved policies for foreign visitors, reduced international shipping costs, and enhanced competitiveness in high-tech services [18] 4. Cross-Border Liquidity Outlook - Despite the recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, the trend of cross-border capital return is expected to continue, influenced by the Fed's monetary policy stance [19][21] - The short-term liquidity in the US remains tight, with limited space for balance sheet reduction, while long-term prospects depend on economic performance [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the current interest rate, pausing any rate cuts, while China's Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged for eight consecutive months, reducing the likelihood of short-term mortgage rate decreases for homebuyers [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Federal Reserve's Decisions - The Federal Reserve's interest rate, known as the federal funds rate, serves as a benchmark for the financial market and influences global capital flows due to the dollar's status as the world currency [3]. - A pause in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve stabilizes dollar asset yields, which slows capital movement and alleviates pressure on the Renminbi exchange rate [3][5]. Group 2: China's Monetary Policy Context - China's monetary policy is primarily driven by domestic economic conditions, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes from March 2022 to July 2023 to combat inflation [6]. - The Chinese economy is expected to grow at a GDP rate of 5% by 2025, supported by a shift in policy focus from monetary to fiscal measures, which are more direct and effective in stimulating specific sectors [6][11]. Group 3: Banking Sector Considerations - As of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks in China is only 1.42%, indicating pressure on banks to maintain profitability while managing deposit and loan rates [7]. - Continuous reductions in loan rates have been made to support the real economy, but banks face challenges in lowering deposit rates without risking a loss of savings [7][10]. Group 4: Future Interest Rate Outlook - There is still potential for rate cuts, as indicated by the Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, with room for adjustments in reserve requirements and funding costs [10][11]. - However, the likelihood of comprehensive rate cuts in the short term is low, as the current mortgage rates are already at historical lows, and the market is in a transitional phase [11].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the interbank foreign exchange market in China operated smoothly under comprehensive regulatory measures, with a steady increase in trading volume and active market participation, achieving a record high in transaction scale and daily average turnover [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The cumulative transaction volume in the interbank foreign exchange market reached 48.52 trillion USD in 2025, with a daily average turnover of 199.66 billion USD, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.54% [1]. - The daily average transaction volume for the RMB foreign exchange market was 14.87 billion USD, with all varieties except for forwards showing an increase in daily average transaction volume [1]. - By the end of 2025, the RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 6.9890, appreciating by 4.43% compared to the end of the previous year [2][3]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - Throughout 2025, the RMB to USD exchange rate experienced fluctuations, initially under pressure but later showing signs of strengthening and significant appreciation [2][3]. - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index ended the year at 97.99 points, reflecting a decline of 3.43% for the year [2]. - The annualized volatility of the exchange rate was recorded at 2.53%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points from 2024 [2]. Group 3: Influencing Factors on RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate faced pressure in April 2025 due to heightened trade tensions between China and the US, with the onshore RMB briefly falling below the 7.35 mark [3]. - Factors contributing to the RMB's subsequent rebound included easing trade tensions and a weakening US dollar due to concerns over the US economic outlook and fiscal issues [4]. - By the end of 2025, both onshore and offshore RMB broke through the significant psychological level of 7.0, driven by improved domestic economic fundamentals and stabilizing market expectations [4]. Group 4: Swap Market Trends - In 2025, the RMB swap curve shifted upward, reaching a three-year high, influenced by narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US [5][6]. - The one-year RMB to USD swap points showed a significant upward trend, particularly in the second half of the year, with the spread against interest rate parity stabilizing in positive territory [6]. - The People's Bank of China issued a total of 300 billion RMB in offshore central bank bills throughout the year, maintaining tight liquidity in the offshore RMB market [6]. Group 5: Dollar Market Liquidity - The domestic dollar borrowing rates remained low throughout 2025, with the overnight borrowing rate fluctuating between 4.25% and 4.33% [7]. - The interest rate differential between domestic and foreign dollar markets widened in the second half of the year, reaching a three-year low of -40 basis points [7]. - By the end of 2025, domestic overnight rates and SOFR were recorded at 3.62% and 3.87%, respectively, both showing declines from the previous year [7].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Wall Street hedge fund managers believe that a significant shock to the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could lead to a rapid decline in the US dollar, potentially bringing the RMB to USD exchange rate close to 6.60. However, large asset management firms on Wall Street are cautious about buying RMB [1][5]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Strategies - Zhang Gang, a multi-strategy hedge fund manager, increased the proportion of RMB assets in his emerging market currency portfolio from 10% to 25%, anticipating that the RMB will appreciate against the USD, targeting a rate of around 6.80 within the year, which could yield over 7% returns [2]. - A macro hedge fund trader, Yu Yong, has been increasing offshore RMB positions in a $200 million emerging market portfolio, believing that China's economic fundamentals and improved external trade environment will support RMB appreciation [7]. - Hedge funds are becoming increasingly active in the offshore RMB market, with some converting millions into offshore RMB to capitalize on potential appreciation [10]. Group 2: Large Asset Management Firms' Caution - Large asset management firms are taking a cautious approach to RMB investments, influenced by uncertainties regarding the sustainability of China's trade surplus and economic performance [5][12]. - These firms prioritize global asset allocation strategies and are not rushing to increase RMB assets, focusing instead on the performance of US stocks and the USD index [12][13]. - Despite some hedge fund managers expressing disappointment, large asset management firms view RMB appreciation as a secondary strategy, limiting individual investments to no more than 2% of total assets [12][13]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - Citigroup economists predict that the RMB will strengthen due to China's push for RMB internationalization and easing trade tensions, forecasting an exchange rate of 6.80 within the next 6 to 12 months [3]. - As of January 15, 2026, the one-year USD to RMB swap points indicate a market expectation of the RMB rising to approximately 6.8495, without breaking the 6.80 mark [8]. - The potential for a "black swan" event, such as unexpected Fed rate cuts, could lead to a significant appreciation of the RMB, with some hedge funds betting on a rate as low as 6.50 [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) in 2024, emphasizing that while there is a long-term potential for appreciation based on purchasing power parity, the reliance on exports will likely limit the extent of this appreciation in the short term [1]. Economic Dependence on Exports - China's economy is highly dependent on exports, with the net export contribution to economic growth projected at 30.3% in 2024, an increase from 2023 [1]. - The trade surplus for goods in the first eleven months of 2025 is expected to exceed $1 trillion, although the current account surplus will be smaller due to a long-term service trade deficit [1]. Impact of Trade Surplus on Currency - A significant trade surplus does not necessarily lead to a direct increase in RMB value, as part of the surplus may remain in foreign currency accounts or be used for debt repayment and investments [3]. - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is a more direct factor influencing the exchange rate [3]. Export Structure and Currency Appreciation - The export structure shows that labor-intensive products, which account for about 15.1% of total exports, are vulnerable to RMB appreciation due to their reliance on price competitiveness [3]. - In contrast, high-tech products like integrated circuits and automobiles, which make up 60.9% of exports, are less affected by currency fluctuations and may benefit from lower import costs for core components [5]. Resilience of Exports - The resilience of China's exports is supported by a complete industrial cluster, a skilled workforce, and rapid product innovation capabilities, marking a transition from being the "world's factory" to a regional innovation center [6]. Commodity Pricing and Import Costs - Major commodities are priced in U.S. dollars, and RMB appreciation could help control import prices, which would otherwise increase costs for intermediate and consumer goods [8]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is suggested as a means to support domestic populations affected by foreign trade dynamics, allowing for higher export prices and potentially benefiting domestic welfare [8]. Overall Assessment of RMB Appreciation - The article concludes that RMB appreciation is more beneficial than detrimental, with the negative impact on exports being overstated, suggesting that the government is unlikely to excessively intervene in the appreciation process [8].