她在向澳大利亚议会陈述时指出："当前劳动力市场状况已出现一定程度缓和，失业率小幅上升，但部 分行业仍面临供需紧张局面。"在本周的公开表态中，布洛克明显淡化了市场对近期降息的预期。她强 调，"董事会将继续密切关注经济数据的演变及各类风险的演进态势，以此作为未来政策决策的指 引。"这一表述暗示，在10月29日三季度消费者价格指数公布之前，澳洲联储极有可能维持现行政策利 率不变。这份即将发布的通胀报告，因其时效性与政策相关性，将成为决定11月4日利率会议政策走向 的关键依据。市场分析认为，若CPI数据显著高于目标区间中值，可能强化央行维持紧缩立场的决心； 反之，若通胀放缓幅度超预期，或将重新点燃市场对政策转向的讨论。 澳元兑美元14日相对强弱指数(RSI)正试图自下而上穿越中线，印证汇率重拾升势。若持续突破0.6628阻 力位，0.6650心理关口将面临考验。若澳联储释放鸽派信号，澳元/美元或将面临新一波抛售压力。汇 率可能重新下探三周低点0.6521(该位置与100日简单移动均线所在的0.6518重合)，若日线收盘价跌破该 支撑，则可能开启跌向0.6450心理关口的下跌趋势，多头最后防线位于200日移动均线所在的 ...

Core Points - The Tokyo stock market indices experienced a significant rise, with the Nikkei 225 index closing up by 0.77% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index up by 0.43%, both reaching historical highs [1][2] - The market opened slightly higher and showed a trend of fluctuating upward movement, driven by profit-taking from some investors and increased participation from others attracted by relatively undervalued blue-chip stocks [1] - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar positively impacted export-oriented stocks, particularly in the automotive sector, with shares of Toyota, Honda, and Nissan rising [1] - Semiconductor equipment manufacturers like Tokyo Electron and Lasertec faced downward pressure due to investor concerns over potential tariffs on semiconductors proposed by Trump [1] Sector Performance - The Nikkei index rose by 336.00 points, closing at 43714.31 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index increased by 13.28 points to 3120.96 points [2] - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with service, transportation machinery, and precision machinery sectors leading the increases [2] - Conversely, nine sectors, including banking, marine transportation, and electric and gas utilities, experienced declines on the same day [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, expressed concerns about exchange rate fluctuations driven by speculators, but stated that he would not comment on the level of the exchange rate [1] Group 1 - The Finance Minister's stance indicates a cautious approach towards currency volatility, highlighting the potential impact of speculative trading on the exchange rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Ministry of Finance officials emphasize the need to monitor exchange rate trends [1] Group 1 - The Japanese government is focusing on the importance of tracking currency fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significance of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's visit to Japan, coinciding with the upcoming Japanese Senate elections, which may influence U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, particularly regarding the proposed 25% "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [1][2] - Nomura Securities reports that the Japanese government is coordinating a meeting between Yellen and Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizuki Ryozo, to discuss the recent tariff proposals [1] - The report indicates that while a breakthrough in trade negotiations is unlikely in the immediate future, even a delay in the implementation of tariffs could limit the upward movement of the USD/JPY exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The articles note that U.S. Commerce Secretary Raimondo's visit to Japan may also facilitate discussions on tariffs for specific industries, including the automotive sector [1] - There is a historical context suggesting that any potential meeting between Yellen and Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, could significantly impact exchange rate trends, as previous discussions hinted at U.S. efforts to curb the rise of the USD/JPY [2] - Kato has indicated that he does not plan to meet with Yellen next week, as he is likely to attend the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in South Africa, which may lead the market to anticipate discussions on exchange rates if he cancels his trip [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, stated that the strength of the British pound is not based on interest rate speculation [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England's stance on currency fluctuations emphasizes that exchange rate movements are influenced by factors beyond just interest rate expectations [1]

Group 1 - The Taiwanese dollar (TWD) experienced a significant appreciation, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping 7-8% over two consecutive days in early May, marking a historical volatility record that affected overall Asian currency fluctuations [1] - The Central Bank of Taiwan stated that the appreciation was not due to pressure from the US, but rather driven by exporters concentrating their foreign exchange settlements [1] - Taiwanese life insurance companies are unlikely to sell off their US dollar assets in the short term, despite the pressure from TWD appreciation and rising hedging costs, as US Treasury bonds remain a scarce long-duration asset [1][5] Group 2 - The next potential focus for currency movements in Asia includes the TWD and Malaysian ringgit (MYR), which are expected to benefit from high dollar deposit ratios and strong export settlement potential [2] - The South Korean won (KRW) is anticipated to have room for appreciation due to its high correlation with USD/CNY amid a downward trend in both currencies [2] - The Singapore dollar (SGD) is expected to perform solidly in the long term, supported by diversified asset allocation by the central bank and its AAA credit rating [2] Group 3 - The Chinese yuan (CNY) is projected to remain stable with a slight strengthening trend, as policymakers prefer a stable exchange rate path despite tariff pressures and capital outflow risks [2] - The Hong Kong dollar (HKD) is expected to maintain a strong position within its linked exchange rate system, bolstered by robust southbound capital inflows and significant liquidity injections by the Monetary Authority [2] - The Indian rupee (INR) faces pressure from geopolitical tensions and potential foreign exchange reserve accumulation by the Reserve Bank of India, making it difficult to outperform other high-yield currencies in the short term [2] Group 4 - The Indonesian rupiah (IDR) is considered undervalued, with expectations for a rebound due to manageable fiscal deficit risks and lower oil prices reducing subsidy expenditures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey indicates that short-term exchange rate trends and food prices are exerting upward pressure on inflation [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank of Turkey's governor highlights the significant impact of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation [1] - Food prices are identified as a critical factor contributing to inflationary pressures in the short term [1]

欧元创2009年以来最快涨势 交易员押注将进一步升至1.20美元 智通财经4月14日电，欧元十多年来最快的涨势正在获得牵引力，交易员押注欧元将升至1.20美元，策 略师们争相更新他们的预测。欧元上周末触及三年来最高水平，美国关税政策带来的经济不确定性引发 了对美元传统避险角色的质疑。根据存款信托与清算公司数据，周五买入的四份期权合约中有三份是押 注欧元进一步走强。交易员表示对冲基金的目标是1.20美元。瑞穗国际策略师预计，未来几个月欧元触 及这一2021年年中以来最高水平的可能性上升。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its macroeconomic trends for **2025**. Core Insights and Arguments - **Shift from Demand to Supply**: The macroeconomic trend for 2025 will transition from demand-driven to supply-driven, with key areas of focus being the recovery of consumer supply, expansion of service sector investment, and optimization of real estate inventory policies, which are expected to release pent-up demand and excess savings [3][4][20]. - **Impact of Weak External Demand**: Weak external demand will significantly affect Chinese exports, with developed countries' import growth slowing down. Even if the U.S. economy remains resilient, Chinese exports will face downward pressure [5][20]. - **Manufacturing Investment Risks**: Manufacturing investment is expected to decline in 2025 due to a weakening natural renewal cycle and limited impact from equipment renewal policies, posing a potential drag on the economy [6][20]. - **Real Estate Market Adjustments**: The primary issues in the real estate market stem from supply-side policy adjustments and completion risks, which lead to deferred demand. Optimizing inventory policies and controlling residential increments can stabilize housing prices and release pent-up demand [8][11][20]. - **Service Sector Investment**: The government aims to expand service sector investment to alleviate supply constraints on service consumption, which has been declining. This is a response to the imbalance between goods and services consumption [10][12][20]. - **Fiscal Policy Adjustments**: The fiscal policy for 2025 is expected to be more proactive, focusing on expanding financing to support key areas such as science and technology, debt servicing, and national defense, while also emphasizing consumer and livelihood protection [3][20][28]. Additional Important Content - **Excess Savings**: There is a significant amount of excess savings (approximately 13 trillion yuan) accumulated by residents over the past four years, which is expected to gradually support domestic demand [7][20]. - **Service Consumption Recovery**: Service consumption is showing signs of recovery, with increased fixed asset investment in the accommodation and catering sectors, indicating a potential rebound in service demand [18][20]. - **Regional Consumption Dynamics**: The central and western regions of China are becoming important consumption destinations due to improved infrastructure and rising disposable incomes, which support cross-regional consumption [19][20]. - **Government Support for Vulnerable Groups**: The government has implemented measures to support vulnerable groups, including increased unemployment benefits and social assistance, to prevent further declines in consumer confidence [33][20]. - **Long-term Institutional Reforms**: The government is focusing on long-term reforms to enhance social security and support for the elderly and children, which will have a significant impact on consumption patterns in the future [41][45][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Chinese economy's outlook for 2025, highlighting the transition in macroeconomic drivers, potential risks, and government policy responses.