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行业周报:中餐精细化管理释放利润弹性,经济结构变革为技术学校带来机遇-20250803
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-03 14:47
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the fine management of Chinese cuisine releases profit elasticity, while economic structural changes drive technological advancements [1][4] - The education sector is experiencing new opportunities due to social changes, with vocational education gaining traction as parents and students shift their views from "fallback options" to "active choices" [4][21] - The nutrition and health food market in China is steadily growing, with a focus on high-quality cross-border imported health brands [6][34] Summary by Sections Travel and Tourism - The summer travel volume has reached a historical high, with July's passenger transport volume expected to reach 71.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [15] - Airlines have adopted a price-for-volume strategy, leading to a 7.5% decline in average domestic economy class ticket prices [15][16] Education - China Oriental Education expects a 7% year-on-year increase in new enrollment and a 10% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit projected to grow by 45%-50% [21][23] - Good Future's revenue for FY2026 Q1 is expected to rise by 38.8% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 174.4% [24][27] - New Oriental's revenue for FY2026 Q1 is projected to be $1.243 billion, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, despite a slowdown in overseas study demand [29] Chinese Cuisine - The "Little Garden" restaurant chain anticipates a net profit of RMB 360-380 million for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.6%-35.7% [30][35] - The Green Tea Group expects a net profit of RMB 230-237 million for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 32%-36% [32][33] Nutrition and Health - China's health food import value has grown from $408 million in 2008 to an estimated $7.753 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.21% [34][37] - Cross-border imported health products are expected to gain market share due to relaxed entry qualifications and diverse consumer demands [43][44]